The Russians maintained over and over that “the aggressor must be stopped” and this was their call to arms during the whole affair. Saakashvili was Hitler, there were Russian citizens in South Ossetia who were on the verge of genocide, and thus their crossing of the international border with Georgia into South Ossetia was justified to stop the Georgian surprise attack. But many sources in the West have noted that the Russians seemed to have their engines already running before the war formally started, taking many preparatory steps including staging a military exercise directly across the border. A July 31, 2008 article states;

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Officially, the maneuvers ended last weekend, but it is not clear if all the troops have indeed withdrawn from the border with Georgia. The Kavkaz-2008 exercises are a preparation for a possible large-scale military confrontation in the region and may be a cover for a deployment of combat troops at border positions for an imminent outbreak of hostilities on Georgian territory.

Was this just good planning on the part of the Russians or did their presence mean war was inevitable?

If all sources are to be believed, it would appear that both Russia and Georgia were building up their respective forces, each recognizing that something major was about to happen. Was Georgia building up as a precaution against Russian aggression or was Georgia simply preparing to reestablish authority in South Ossetia by force? Was Russia building up in anticipation of malicious Georgian intentions or was it also planning some pre-emptive move into South Ossetia?  As yet there are no (public) satellite images showing exact positions of forces with timestamps to back the claims of either party.

For my part, I don’t believe either side without reservation. The implications are so serious that it is irresponsible to jump to conclusions without having all the facts. The West has been quick to condemn Russia, believing Georgia to be the innocent victim.  Was Georgia blameless? Is the West willing to bet trillions of dollars on a second Cold War based on hearsay from Georgia? Russia for its part has seemingly also rushed to judgment by recognizing the two breakaway regions without first taking a breather to assess all the facts of what happened or building even a token international consensus.  Was independence for these regions its goal all along? Was Russia willing to bet untold sums of investment money and international status for two very minor territories?

We will continue to monitor the background noise of data until irrefutable evidence of a smoking gun is presented by non-partisan sources. Understandably it could be a long wait…

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