Eric Weider
ACG Publisher

Did you forget to mention YOU DID NOT LOWER THE PRICE OF THE MAGZINE?

So what you’re saying is screw you subscriber.

Thanks for your reply to my comments on the atomic bombings. Your points are all valid and well presented; but I still disagree with the decision to drop the atomic bombs.

Alex

The one thing of interest in all of your estimates is that there is not a single estimate by any general that has less casualties than even the bloodiest battles in the civil war. The figures those generals gave out, although low, were downright apocalyptic for a nation that escaped the likes of the people-grinders on the eastern front. 50,000 casualties for any American military operation over a month is an enormous loss of life. That’s two Gettysburgh’s and surely that thought crossed Truman’s mind when he ordered the bomb to be dropped.

As it turns out, those who expected the United States to match Russia for casualties with an ultimate showdown with Japan should note the estimate of casualties for Operation Olympic were all based on an assumption of Japanese strength that was probably too low. Allied planning for Olympic and Coronet was based on the assumption that the Japanese would not be able to move their army from China back to Japan. Despite a stiff American blockade, the Japanese were able to do exactly that.

One source gives an American estimate of at most 21 Japanese divisions in opposition. In the real world, the Japanese had 65, although only half of them were actually armed. Similarly, the Japanese had far more Kamikaze aircraft and fuel for them available then was estimated by the USA. If the Japanese were to convert with the same degree of success that they had at Okinawa, it was not unthinkable that they sink around 400-500 US ships. Even worse, unlike Germany, Japan had accurately forecast where the American landings would take place.

With all of those things in place, and given a track record of fanatical Japanese resistance likely only to be amplified when in defense of their homeland, suddenly 500,000 to 1,000,000 casualties becomes a lot more of a realistic estimate. But even with a forecast of “only” 50,000 casualties on his desk, Truman did the right thing. When your best estimate of casualties is twice the worst battle in the US civil war, then there’s really only one answer. Drop the bomb and end the war.

Eric Weider
ACG Publisher