German troops in a mock battle at Nurenmberg on September 12, 1937

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After the war the continuing development and application of computers, operations analysis and systems analysis resulted in the idea that military simulations not only could, but also had to, provide "precise and unambiguous" answers through gaming. It also created an atmosphere in which traditional, history-based, manual wargames were not considered "precise" enough for the needs of the professional military. Unfortunately, this ignored the fact that history-based manual wargames, although relatively imprecise in some aspects, generally achieved the "95 percent solution" which was certainly accurate enough to be useful. Moreover, as time passed we have realized that operations and systems analysis although precise, may not be as reliable and accurate as once hoped. This has generally meant that not every aspect of a military simulation, historical or otherwise, can be modeled with absolute accuracy nor does it necessarily need to be. The problem of accuracy remains a trade-off between the complex nature of war and how much time and resources (or computer processing speed and memory) are available. Putting military simulations on a PC does not necessarily represent "ground truth" but it is a powerful device for crunching the numbers necessary in pursuit of the "99 percent solution." ^[5]

The historical simulation . . .

While many military professionals are quite satisfied with reading a book or watching a film on a historical battle or campaign, a military professional who games that same event is looking for something more. Specifically, he or she uses simulation to do a closer examination and evaluation of all the aspects associated with the battle in question. Because after all, isn’t a wargame a historical account of an event in simulation form? Arguably, the first and most important step in any historical simulation is the research and organization of the data involved. The quantitative analysis of this information is no small feat but it is also not the subject of this paper. Suffice to say the data must be reliable and correctly interpreted since it will later serve as the foundation for model development. Perhaps it is obvious but one of the easiest aspects of military affairs to quantify and make consistently meaningful are weapons and their effects since they obey the standard law of physics. But even this relatively predictable performance tends to wander when employed on the battlefield, just ask any soldier. So the process of understanding and then applying the seemingly endless number of combat variables, such as weather, terrain and morale and their effects on weapons performance and thus battle outcomes, is critical. And this is precisely what the military professional can and should learn from historical simulations. ^[6]

Point of Attack 2 (HPS Simulations) – A modern tactical wargame

If military history is the "professional officer’s laboratory of war," ^[7] then the historical simulation is a critical means for experimentation. No other medium of historical study allows the military professional to manipulate the key elements of a battle, campaign or war and then test the outcome with the same expectation of historical accuracy. By comparison, when was the last time you explored the "what if?" aspect of a historical battle through a book or a film? By manipulating the key elements of a historical battle through simulation, the military professional gains a better understanding of how all important aspects of the battle interacted. Moreover, it provides a unique opportunity to explore alternative strategies and tactics. In fact, many wargamers do not game at all. They simply study and manipulate the simulation by themselves. While useful, I think playing solitaire eliminates a crucial aspect of war. Namely, there are typically two sides in a military conflict and each is attempting to impose its will on the other. With both sides exercising free will, the number of "what ifs?" to explore grows considerably but realistically.

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