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Go Back   Armchair General and HistoryNet >> The Best Forums in History > Current Events > Latin America & the Caribbean > Haiti

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Haiti Jan 2010 Earthquake in Haiti. .

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  #16  
Old 25 Jan 10, 08:54
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So Doc if you were a betting man where is the next big one going to be in the US? Saint Andres/New Madrid or Yellow Stone or Alaska? Which would be the worst in your opinion?

Playing the odds I would guess the next one well be along the Saint Andres fault. Worst one would be the when and if Yellowstone goes up.
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  #17  
Old 25 Jan 10, 09:03
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Originally Posted by Half Pint John View Post
So Doc if you were a betting man where is the next big one going to be in the US? Saint Andres/New Madrid or Yellow Stone or Alaska? Which would be the worst in your opinion?

Playing the odds I would guess the next one well be along the Saint Andres fault. Worst one would be the when and if Yellowstone goes up.
I am sort of a betting man... But I don't make bets where risk can't be quantified.

I can reasonably predict the probability of success for an exploration well and I can calculate risk-adjusted economics to decide if the risked gain is worth the investment.

Earthquakes are stochastic to chaotic in nature. I can tell you that on any given day a severe earthquake along the San Andreas fault system has a far higher probability than one on the New Madrid fault system. But I can't quantify the probability enough to make a reasonable forecast.
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  #18  
Old 26 Jan 10, 20:23
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Originally Posted by Half Pint John View Post
So Doc if you were a betting man where is the next big one going to be in the US? Saint Andres/New Madrid or Yellow Stone or Alaska? Which would be the worst in your opinion?

Playing the odds I would guess the next one well be along the Saint Andres fault. Worst one would be the when and if Yellowstone goes up.
Yellowstone has already racked up over 900 quakes recently, which will lead to the eruption of the super volcano, rather than to a major earthquake.
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  #19  
Old 27 Jan 10, 09:19
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Originally Posted by Mountain Man View Post
Yellowstone has already racked up over 900 quakes recently, which will lead to the eruption of the super volcano, rather than to a major earthquake.
If that super volcano goes kaboom; we are finished as a nation. Without a viable America; the world will enter a new dark age. A prospect too horrific to contemplate.
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  #20  
Old 27 Jan 10, 11:10
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If that super volcano goes kaboom; we are finished as a nation. Without a viable America; the world will enter a new dark age. A prospect too horrific to contemplate.
No sweat - most of the rest of the world will die off within a few years as well, according to the scientissts and experts. For once, they all agree on the outcome.
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  #21  
Old 27 Jan 10, 11:18
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Originally Posted by Mountain Man View Post
Yellowstone has already racked up over 900 quakes recently, which will lead to the eruption of the super volcano, rather than to a major earthquake.
The earthquake swarm that began on January 17 is not unusual...
Quote:
Swarms are normal at Yellowstone

The current number of daily earthquakes is well above typical daily earthquake activity at Yellowstone. Nevertheless swarms are common at Yellowstone, with magnitudes occasionally above 4.0. There were about 900 earthquakes during the December 2008 - January 2009 Yellowstone Lake swarm. The 1985 swarm, also on the northwest rim of the caldera but several miles from the current swarm, lasted for three months. During the 1985 swarm there were over 3000 total events recorded, with magnitudes ranging up to M4.9.

USGS
The USGS says that the swarm is associated with fault displacement and not magma movement...
Quote:
The swarm events are likely the result of slip on pre-existing faults and are called tectonic earthquakes and are not thought to be caused by underground movement of magma. Currently there is no indication of premonitory volcanic or hydrothermal activity, but ongoing observations and analyses will continue to evaluate these different sources.

USGS
But... No one has ever scientifically observed an eruption at Yellowstone, not even a minor one. So no one, not even the USGS, knows what, if any, warning signs might precede an eruption.
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