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Go Back   Armchair General and HistoryNet >> The Best Forums in History > Current Events > Russia, Central Asia, and The Caucasus > South Ossetian Conflict

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South Ossetian Conflict Discuss the conflict between Georgia and Russia over South Ossetia.

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  #16  
Old 08 Jul 09, 18:12
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Sure, there was a similar movement in 19th century waiting for the white ship. There are several other similar sects as well. I've no idea what it has to with this thread though.

I am happy if the risk doesn't materialize, but that doesn't mean the risk doesn't exist. As an interesting development Armenia, the supposedly stoutest ally of Russia in the region, has just last week decorated Saakashvili with their highest order. A show of support to promote stability just before the critical time? It looks like Russia will have to settle for Hamas and Nicaragua for some while still.
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  #17  
Old 08 Jul 09, 18:31
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Well they are known to have pushed up the date for the arrival of the ship a couple off times, hopefully you will not go on like that.

A facinating piece of history, but a very tragic one. I still can recall the words from the old man when he got back home and they had hanged his grandchild to prove their fate and that god protected her... Mentioned in the book "Silverarken", a quite rare book by the way... Think I had to pay 500sek for it.
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Last edited by Erkki; 08 Jul 09 at 18:36..
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  #18  
Old 09 Jul 09, 02:31
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Originally Posted by Erkki View Post
Well they are known to have pushed up the date for the arrival of the ship a couple off times, hopefully you will not go on like that.
I don't think I promised you anything. I might give you another heads up if I find that there's cause to think the risk has increased again. I think its useful to shine light on such situations as it will make obfuscating later on more difficult and thus might even have deterrent effects.

BTW I haven't seen reports whether the extra troops have left yet so I don't think the elevated risk is quite over, however the lack of provocations/increase of tension at this point is comforting. There's also increased signs of some positive developments behind the scenes like the considerable scaling back of Kremlin support to the nashis. Are these yet another sign of Putin - Medvedev power struggle? I don't know.
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  #19  
Old 09 Jul 09, 13:27
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Quote:
BTW I haven't seen reports whether the extra troops have left yet so I don't think the elevated risk is quite over, however the lack of provocations/increase of tension at this point is comforting. There's also increased signs of some positive developments behind the scenes like the considerable scaling back of Kremlin support to the nashis. Are these yet another sign of Putin - Medvedev power struggle? I don't know.
There is no Power struggle as I understand it. Medvedev and Putin basicly think the same. I read a good comparisin somewhere I see if I can find it.
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  #20  
Old 09 Jul 09, 13:58
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Here you gohttp://www.russiatoday.ru/About_Us/B...009-07-03.html
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  #21  
Old 09 Jul 09, 16:30
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Medvedev and Putin basicly think the same
I didn't know you can read both of their minds. Impressive!
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  #22  
Old 02 Aug 09, 13:44
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Since Russia failed in achieving its goals last year a number of experts are predicting a reprisal of last years events. The troops are already in place with the Kavkaz 2009 exercises ongoing. Possibly the best time for the attack would be on or right after July 6 when the exercises end. Doing it right after Obama visit would leave the impression of Obama approval on the move. The toothless response to Iran's events suggest that Obama would at best express grave concern and leave it at that.

I'd give the percentage of this happening at 25%. Russia's economy is in serious trouble and the attack would rattle it further - I'd think Putin is not willing to risk it now. Also I see little evidence of a build-up of incidents that preceded the previous war. Of course that could be fixed quickly.
I give 80%. They just started a new provocations.
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  #23  
Old 02 Aug 09, 13:51
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It might aswell be the Georgians, they are both pretty good at that.
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Old 02 Aug 09, 13:58
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It might aswell be the Georgians, they are both pretty good at that.
They both have dirty hands, but now it is only Putin who have interes in escalation. Their gas monopoly will be in danger in fact, that Nabucco pipe line had been contracted, and build will start soon.
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  #25  
Old 02 Aug 09, 14:01
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There is no monopoly, just Russian dominance of the market.
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Old 02 Aug 09, 14:25
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Originally Posted by Barbaross@ View Post
They both have dirty hands, but now it is only Putin who have interes in escalation. Their gas monopoly will be in danger in fact, that Nabucco pipe line had been contracted, and build will start soon.
Putin surely does have some interest, but one shouldn't discount Saakashvili's problems with the opposition - having an external enemy that wouldn't ever go as far as to crush you completely is a real find for an authoritarian leader like him.
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Old 04 Aug 09, 00:03
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This may be nothing, or it could be everything...but a large convoy of units was seen presumably heading towards Georgia yesterday. Some "experts" are saying this week is the best time for an invasion of Georgia and recent statements claiming the Georgians are throwing mortars over the border is adding to the tensions.

http://www.kavkazcenter.com/eng/cont...02/10843.shtml
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  #28  
Old 04 Aug 09, 08:27
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Russia has declared it has elevated its troops to combat readiness in the region. They are also conducting exercises in a very similar manner to last year. Unfortunately it looks bad. My brain still refuses to believe that they would really do this as the fallout may well break Russia's already economic spine, but on the other hand given US current disposition and Georgia's quick rearmament program this is probably the best chance for a long time.

I still say the chance of a repeat invasion is less than 50% but it is still considerable. If it happens, this time the plan has got to be to capture Tbilisi. If I were in charge of Georgian defences, I would be busy calling in reservists to form them up properly this time (Georgia's biggest failure last time around) and building fortifications.
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Old 04 Aug 09, 13:05
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If that happens we'll see if Obama has traded Georgia for Afghanistan.
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Old 05 Aug 09, 13:19
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Russia is accusing US of arming Georgia. I hope it is true as there is nothing wrong with two sovereign countries supplying military equipment, especially as one a victim of continuous intimidation, and having parts of its territory occupied by an larger state with imperial delusions of grandeur.
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