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Go Back   Armchair General and HistoryNet >> The Best Forums in History > Current Events > The Middle East > Gaza Conflicts

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Gaza Conflicts Discuss the series of conflicts between Israel and Gaza militants.

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  #31  
Old 03 Jan 09, 22:42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Admiral View Post
The 'Palestinians' are held as much as 'prisoners' by all the neighboring Arab countries... as by Israel. No Arab country bordering Israel allows Palestinian immigration, instead they may only live within those Arab countries as refugees. In effect, the Arab countries use the 'Palestinian' peoples as pawns against Israel by effectively forcing them to hopelessly remain between the Arab states & Israel as grain to the grindstone.

The 'Palestinian plight' is as much the result of the neighboring Arab states, as it is of the people of Israel... but then again, there would be no plight if the 'Palestinians' had chosen to become a nation in 47', or would simply make real peace with the nation of Israel & stop their insistence of always attacking Israeli civilians by terroristic means.

As an end note to my commentary, none of this excuses the assorted Israeli terrorism in the early days of Israeli pursuit of a nation - which the Israeli people eventually did accept & achieve.


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  #32  
Old 04 Jan 09, 07:13
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Originally Posted by skoblin View Post
Regarding the Ottoman Census, it must admitted that they did not use modern statistical methods. First, it is doubtful all individuals were counted. The Bedouin population, for instance, would have been difficult to measure, thus possibly under-counting the Arab population. On the other hand, illegals and foreign citizens were also difficult to asses, thus possibly under-counting the Jewish population, since Jewish persons were not granted Ottoman citizenship. However, it would have taken a implausibly tremendous amount of under-counting of the Jewish population to bring the official number of 9,817 to anything close to the stated Arab population of 371,969 - not including possibly uncounted Bedouins.

The British census of 1922, which disclosed an Arab population of 660,641 cannot attribute the increase in the Arab population to immigration, as this number provides an effective annual increase in population of only around 1.93% - quite an acceptable rate of growth. On the other hand, the increase in the Jewish population over these same roughly 30 years (from 9,817 in 1893 to 83,790 in 1922) discloses an annual rate of increase of some 7.4% - a figure which could only have been augmented by immigration. Could some of this increase have come from the Golan? It is possible, but I have been unable to determine whether Golan was included in the 1893 census for Palestine or was included in Syria. Still, for this possible movement of Jewish residents from the Golan to Palestine to account solely for the increase in the Jewish population of Palestine in 1922 seems implausible. If we credit the Jewish population of 1893 with the same annual rate of growth as the Arab population - 1.93%, we end up with around 17,500 for the Jewish population in 1922. Where did the other roughly 65,500 come from? This would have meant there was in excess of 50,000 Jewish residents in Golan at the end of the war - at least three times the entire Jewish population of Palestine at the same time. (This excludes possible emigration, both Jewish and Arab, possible errors in the Ottoman census, and differences in the specific boundaries of Palestine as an administrative unit).

We can also take the figures of the 1931 British census, which give an Arab population of 759,700 (660,641 in 1922) and a Jewish population of 174,606 (83,790 in 1922). This shows an annual increase in the Arab population of 0.98% and an annual increase in the Jewish population of 8.50% over the period from 1922 to 1931. Clearly, it was the Jewish population of Palestine that was being fueled by immigration, not the Arab population, unless there was massive Arab emigration to balance it.
Here's an interesting essay on the topic of population between 1850 and 1948. To go by this the Ottoman census can be pretty much ignored.
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  #33  
Old 04 Jan 09, 07:21
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Are we still trying to determine whose land it really belongs to?

I'm sure that will be very helpful to resolving the current crisis.

:yawn:
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  #34  
Old 04 Jan 09, 08:01
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Originally Posted by GeneralTsoGood View Post
two arab nations have signed peace accords with Israel, and both nations have not worried about Israel attacking them since...
And Israel has returned all of the territories taken from those two nations since the 1967 war...Apart from the West Bank - Jordan relinquished their claim to the West Bank in 1988 and ceded the territory to the Palestinians.
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  #35  
Old 04 Jan 09, 08:08
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And the Golan.
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  #36  
Old 04 Jan 09, 08:55
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Originally Posted by Gorque View Post
And the Golan.
Syria is not one of the two Arab nations that have made peace with Israel.
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  #37  
Old 04 Jan 09, 09:10
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True Dat!

If the return of the Golan is a precondition for peace with Syria and considering the Syrians past use of it for shelling and observation, then it's best for the Israeli's to retain it.
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  #38  
Old 04 Jan 09, 10:08
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ogukuo72 View Post
Are we still trying to determine whose land it really belongs to?

I'm sure that will be very helpful to resolving the current crisis.

:yawn:
You see, Oggie, some of us, like E. D. and myself, find it interesting and relevant to determine how we got into this mess in the Middle East to begin with. And even though we seem to be arguing from different positions, we have been able to do so without any rancor or animosity. If you find historical investigation boring, don't read it. If you find it non-relevant, don't comment on it. Or, better yet, try to avoid being in a history forum.
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  #39  
Old 04 Jan 09, 10:47
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skoblin View Post
You see, Oggie, some of us, like E. D. and myself, find it interesting and relevant to determine how we got into this mess in the Middle East to begin with. And even though we seem to be arguing from different positions, we have been able to do so without any rancor or animosity. If you find historical investigation boring, don't read it. If you find it non-relevant, don't comment on it. Or, better yet, try to avoid being in a history forum.
Well, history IS interesting. But sometimes, it seems to be used as a pseudo justification for one side or the other.

When it comes to Israel/Palestine, it will be very confusing because one people or another had actually formed majorities there. To fix any particular period as the one to be used to determine the 'right of nationhood' would be arbitrary. And usually, the period one would select will be the one that best fits the conclusion that one wants to reach. In other words, entirely circular.

What, of course, cannot be changed is the fact that the Israelis are there right now, and have been there, and have a nation. You may want to go back into history if you want, but this remains the fact you have to deal with.

And - oh - the Christians should figure somewhere in there too. After all, they form the majority there somewhere from 70AD up till the Arab conquests. So, if you really want to go into that kind of argument, the Palestians really should get in line after the Jews, then the Christians, don't you think?
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  #40  
Old 04 Jan 09, 11:04
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ogukuo72 View Post
Well, history IS interesting. But sometimes, it seems to be used as a pseudo justification for one side or the other.

When it comes to Israel/Palestine, it will be very confusing because one people or another had actually formed majorities there. To fix any particular period as the one to be used to determine the 'right of nationhood' would be arbitrary. And usually, the period one would select will be the one that best fits the conclusion that one wants to reach. In other words, entirely circular.

What, of course, cannot be changed is the fact that the Israelis are there right now, and have been there, and have a nation. You may want to go back into history if you want, but this remains the fact you have to deal with.

And - oh - the Christians should figure somewhere in there too. After all, they form the majority there somewhere from 70AD up till the Arab conquests. So, if you really want to go into that kind of argument, the Palestians really should get in line after the Jews, then the Christians, don't you think?
There, was that so difficult to get involved in an historical debate?

And yes, you have hit the nail on the head. The population question has been used by both sides as justifications for their positions, and is therefore relevant. The best that can be surmised is that the Arab population comprised a significant majority until the British Mandate began. After that the Jewish population increased dramatically due to British policy in pursuit of the Balfour Declaration. An interesting question is therefore, did the British do the Arabs in Palestine a disservice and violate the spirit of the Mandate system by promoting their own policy to the detriment of the then existing Arab population. My answer would be yes. This, of course, does not negate the fact that Israel is there now. Nor does this negate the fact that the Palestinians are still there as well. This is not a black and white issue regarding territorial claims. Both Palestinians and Israelis have established historical claims to the land, which is what make the situation so problematic. However, some on this forum seem to believe that Israel should have sole claim to entire territory and should just clear all of the Arabs out. This is indefensible, as is the opposing view.
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  #41  
Old 04 Jan 09, 12:09
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Playing devils advocate.

It might be argued that without the USA's economic/military aid it has recieved since its creation, Israel might not have survived at all as an independant state. If you agree then you might ask, just how long will it take for Israel to eventually stand on her own two feet, without a big brother there to hold her up?

Might it be suggested that Israel is a 'false' state along the lines of Yugoslavia, i'm not sure? What I do feel sure about is that while the view exists that the Palestinian people have been dispossessed of their homeland, its likely Israel will be in a perpetual state of war for many generations to come and that this will have dire consequences for the rest of us.

Perhaps the only way forward is through political might such as the following.

Israel should occupy (if she hasn't already) all the former Palestinian lands and then formally annex them to become part of Israel. The 'Palestinian' people within this 'new' Israel would be given a choice to be either Israeli citizens (fully equal in rights etc to everyone else) or be subject to enforced emmigration.

Thats the best solution towards long term peace I have.

Gaz
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  #42  
Old 04 Jan 09, 12:28
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Originally Posted by allsirgarnet View Post
Playing devils advocate.

Perhaps the only way forward is through political might such as the following.

Israel should occupy (if she hasn't already) all the former Palestinian lands and then formally annex them to become part of Israel. The 'Palestinian' people within this 'new' Israel would be given a choice to be either Israeli citizens (fully equal in rights etc to everyone else) or be subject to enforced emmigration.

Thats the best solution towards long term peace I have.

Gaz
Except....

The current Palestinian population of the West Bank is 2,407,681, while the current population of Gaza is 1,482,405 - making a combined population of 3,890,086 persons. (CIA World Factbook)

Within Israel itself there are currently 1,375,600 Muslims (presumably Palestinian Arabs) and 5,435,900 Jewish persons.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Israel

Presuming that all of the Palestinians decide to stay within a 'new' Israel, this would make a population consisting of:

5,435,000 Jewish citizens
5,265,686 Muslim citizens

I am doubtful whether the Israelis would be in favour of a policy that would almost jeopardize their majority within what they would consider their own country. Nor do I think the Palestinians would remain quiet for long living within a nation claiming to be a Jewish state, when they comprise half the population. How long would this situation continue before civil war would break out, placing us in the same situation as before?

As for enforced emigration, no country is required to take in refugees, let alone almost 5,000,000 of them. I remember a similar situation when National Socialist Germany forcibly emigrated what they considered to be Polish Jews living within their borders. These unfortunate persons ended up living in no-man's land between the two countries. Hardly a beneficial situation.

I agree, though, Gaz....one single state with equal rights for all citizens, whether Muslim or Jewish would be the best solution. However, there are too many extremists on both sides to make this feasible, unless the world community enforced it somehow. However, forcing people to live together against their will also does not seem to work. Which is why I divorced my first wife.
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  #43  
Old 04 Jan 09, 12:44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skoblin View Post
Except....

The current Palestinian population of the West Bank is 2,407,681, while the current population of Gaza is 1,482,405 - making a combined population of 3,890,086 persons. (CIA World Factbook)

Within Israel itself there are currently 1,375,600 Muslims (presumably Palestinian Arabs) and 5,435,900 Jewish persons.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Israel

Presuming that all of the Palestinians decide to stay within a 'new' Israel, this would make a population consisting of:

5,435,000 Jewish citizens
5,265,686 Muslim citizens

I am doubtful whether the Israelis would be in favour of a policy that would almost jeopardize their majority within what they would consider their own country. Nor do I think the Palestinians would remain quiet for long living within a nation claiming to be a Jewish state, when they comprise half the population. How long would this situation continue before civil war would break out, placing us in the same situation as before?

As for enforced emigration, no country is required to take in refugees, let alone almost 5,000,000 of them. I remember a similar situation when National Socialist Germany forcibly emigrated what they considered to be Polish Jews living within their borders. These unfortunate persons ended up living in no-man's land between the two countries. Hardly a beneficial situation.

I agree, though, Gaz....one single state with equal rights for all citizens, whether Muslim or Jewish would be the best solution. However, there are too many extremists on both sides to make this feasible, unless the world community enforced it somehow. However, forcing people to live together against their will also does not seem to work. Which is why I divorced my first wife.
Theres no easy answer mate. One of the main problems in determining who has rights to the land is that history clearly shows no one does... except those who took them by force of arms. Add to this that at various periods, various races and religions were dominant and no clear pattern emerges. As to the Jewish claim to the land, the earliest non religious text reference I have found is an Egyptian one (from the time of I think Ramses III?), which stated that the un-named people of that land (Palestine/Israel) were in fact nomadic and therefore no indigenous people exist there. Heres an example of what I mean...

League of Nations' Interim Report on the Civil Administration of Palestine 1920. Total population 700,000.

Of these 235,000 live in the larger towns, 465,000 in the smaller towns and villages. Four-fifths of the whole population are Moslems. A small proportion of these are Bedouin Arabs; the remainder, although they speak Arabic and are termed Arabs, are largely of mixed race. Some 77,000 of the population are Christians, in large majority belonging to the Orthodox Church, and speaking Arabic. The minority are members of the Latin or of the Uniate Greek Catholic Church, or--a small number--are Protestants. The Jewish element of the population numbers 76,000. Almost all have entered Palestine during the last 40 years. Prior to 1850 there were in the country only a handful of Jews. In the following 30 years a few hundreds came to Palestine. Most of them were animated by religious motives; they came to pray and to die in the Holy Land, and to be buried in its soil. After the persecutions in Russia forty years ago, the movement of the Jews to Palestine assumed larger proportions.


Gaz
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  #44  
Old 04 Jan 09, 15:06
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I think the bottom line is that it is what it is and looking for historical justification for the position of either side is a waste of energy.
Israel has controlled Gaza and the West Bank for over 40 years. Since the mid 80ís they have had stable reasonably secure borders (in the context of their neighbours). They could and should have done more to help the people on the ground in both areas in that time.
Just to be clear on the context of my comments; Israel is a Western democracy and operated on a much higher moral level than her neighbours. I would expect far less from her Arab neighbours because they are far lesser states in almost every way.
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Old 04 Jan 09, 15:14
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Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: The city on the river
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Skoblin has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Skoblin has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Skoblin has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Skoblin has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Skoblin has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Skoblin has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Skoblin has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Skoblin has achieved enlightenment [1200+]
Skoblin has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Skoblin has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Skoblin has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Skoblin has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Skoblin has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Skoblin has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Skoblin has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Skoblin has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Skoblin has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Skoblin has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Skoblin has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Skoblin has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Skoblin has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Skoblin has achieved enlightenment [1200+]
I have decided to start a new thread on the Arab-Israeli conflict in my history sub-forum. Will add to it when I have the time, but here is a first post: Christmas 1930 in Palestine

http://www.armchairgeneral.com/forum...ad.php?t=72103
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