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Go Back   Armchair General and HistoryNet >> The Best Forums in History > Current Events > The Middle East > Gaza Conflicts

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Gaza Conflicts Discuss the series of conflicts between Israel and Gaza militants.

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  #16  
Old 02 Jan 09, 21:12
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Originally Posted by GCoyote View Post
Sending in the IAF first may look like 2006 all over again but without knowing what Hamas and Israel know about the situation on the ground we are really just speculating here.
My beef was not with the order in which the armed services went into action, it was with the time lag between their entries.

Sending ground forces simultaneously with the start of the air op or at least a short time afterwards (12-24 hours) would have been much better. I mean they will send them anyway, since this thing was planned months ago they could have planned for an almost simultaneous op. What did they gain by waiting 7+ days, what is the reason behind that?
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  #17  
Old 03 Jan 09, 00:19
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Originally Posted by Imperial View Post
My beef was not with the order in which the armed services went into action, it was with the time lag between their entries.

Sending ground forces simultaneously with the start of the air op or at least a short time afterwards (12-24 hours) would have been much better. I mean they will send them anyway, since this thing was planned months ago they could have planned for an almost simultaneous op. What did they gain by waiting 7+ days, what is the reason behind that?
for one thing.......putting up with air attacks for seven days with little or no sleep is not very conducive to an alert combat ready defense.......besides scaring the **** out of you
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  #18  
Old 03 Jan 09, 10:19
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plan vs plan

Since Hamas decided to initiate combat we have to assume they prepared to withstand an IDF ground attack as part of their operation. If the IDF isn't confident they have the needed intel not to walk into a trap, there is probably not much harm in waiting a few days.

If Hamas prepared as well as Hezbollah did there may not be much difference between going in imediately and waiting. If Hamas wasn't ready for a multi-day bombardment their troops in position are at least going to need food and water very soon. I'm guessing the IDF force of UAVs is working 24/7 trying to answer that sort of question.
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  #19  
Old 03 Jan 09, 10:40
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Originally Posted by GCoyote View Post
Since Hamas decided to initiate combat we have to assume they prepared to withstand an IDF ground attack as part of their operation. If the IDF isn't confident they have the needed intel not to walk into a trap, there is probably not much harm in waiting a few days.

If Hamas prepared as well as Hezbollah did there may not be much difference between going in imediately and waiting.
Since the end of 2006 it was well known that Hamas was trying to emulate Hezbollah and to fortify Gaza. Walking into an area timely prepared for defense was a given.

From what I've read from Israeli assessments, the IAF's initial airstrike knocked Hamas off its feet. Delaying the ground operation for more than a week might have given it the breathing space it needed.

It also gave it some PR arguments. Hamas could claim that its 2-year fortification of Gaza detered Israel. The hesitation to swiftly start the threatened ground op, later combined with some Israeli losses and an unavoidable withdrawal will remove the perception of defeat from many Palestinian minds.
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  #20  
Old 03 Jan 09, 11:06
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The Jewish Post opines that the Israeli government has already lost its will to win and intends to maneuver for a "international settlement:"

"George Orwell once quipped, "The quickest way of ending a war is to lose it."
Since Tuesday it has become clear that the Olmert-Livni-Barak government has decided to end the war with Iran's Hamas proxy army in Gaza as quickly as possible. That is, the government has decided to lose the war."

"...the outcome of the war will not be determined by the number of Hamas buildings the IAF destroys. The outcome of this war - like the outcome of all wars - will be determined by one factor only: Which side will achieve the goals it set out for itself at the outset of the conflict and which side will concede its goals?

Depressingly, the current machinations of the Olmert-Livni-Barak government demonstrate that when the fighting is over, Hamas and not Israel will be able to declare that it accomplished its goals. "


http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satelli...cle%2FShowFull
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  #21  
Old 05 Jan 09, 00:50
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Imperial View Post
The political timidity and hesitation has remained unchanged when it comes to ground troops.
Well, now that the IDF has committed three brigades just in the initial assault, you may be proven wrong in that statement. And it came fairly quickly following the initial aerial assault. I think Israel learned a lot from the conflict with hezbollah in 2006. Be careful what you wish for.
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  #22  
Old 05 Jan 09, 01:29
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Lawrence Freedman also has a good article, linked here:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/82b09468-d...nclick_check=1

Of note is this two paragraphs:
Quote:
In the public relations war, Hamas has largely relied on others to make its case, although this often means belittling the significance of the rocket attacks that represent its main claim to be leading resistance against Israel. Politically it has put itself into a position where a ceasefire will be seen as a defeat, because this will require accepting that it must stop firing rockets.

The calls for a ceasefire are bound to become more insistent. Assuming proper monitoring mechanisms are on offer, Israel should respond positively, putting the onus on Hamas. Without a ceasefire, the risks for Israel will grow. If the rockets keep on coming, even in reduced numbers, questions will be raised in Israel and elsewhere about what has really been achieved, especially as the human cost among the Palestinians becomes even more severe.
I agree with the above points. Like I've said before, a good no-lose situation for Israel would be an internationally imposed cease-fire after it has done what it could realistically do, and which would place the onus on HAMAS not to launch any more rocket attacks.
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  #23  
Old 05 Jan 09, 13:04
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Larry Freeeman... nice man... a bit weird when he talks too...

But I agree with the main points raised by Ogukuo... the problems now is to find a real way to monitor hamas... if they accept something even remotely similar to a real monitoring force like the current UNIFIL even with its conniving ewlement they will lose... they will have to fold to Fatah and for them is political death... also the whole idea of the great leader safely esconcend in a damascus resort... at least Hizbollah leader were trying to appear in a war leader mode...

I think that Hamas is approaching a lose-lose situation... well done Israel.
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  #24  
Old 06 Jan 09, 12:15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeOpressoLiber View Post
Well, now that the IDF has committed three brigades just in the initial assault, you may be proven wrong in that statement. And it came fairly quickly following the initial aerial assault. I think Israel learned a lot from the conflict with hezbollah in 2006. Be careful what you wish for.
Maybe. But it committed ground troops 8 days after the start of air ops. Back in 2006 it committed ground troops 10 days after the start of air ops.

In my view that's in the ballpark of the same hesitancy, especially since this time around Israel was prepared in advance for the start of this conflict with Hamas, unlike the case of 2006 when Israel was fighting in Gaza and was caught off-guard in the north.
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  #25  
Old 12 Jan 09, 09:43
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Will Hezbollah launch rocket attacks from Lebanon in order to create a two front confrontation?
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  #26  
Old 12 Jan 09, 10:46
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Post They fired a few last Thursday but nothing since then.

From: Stratfor [noreply@stratfor.com]
Sent: Thursday, January 08, 2009 7:11 PM

Subject: Israel, Gaza: Rockets Land in Northern Israel

to see the rest go to Stratfor.com
---------------------------

Quote:
ISRAEL, GAZA: ROCKETS LAND IN NORTHERN ISRAEL
Three artillery rockets launched from southern Lebanon landed in northern Israel on Dec. 29 -- far from the ongoing fighting in Gaza -- raising the possibility of a two-front war for the Jewish state. At the moment, however, this attack appears to have been an isolated event, rather than what it initially appeared that it might have been: a deliberate and coordinated attack by the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.

...
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  #27  
Old 12 Jan 09, 21:47
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Will Hezbollah launch rocket attacks from Lebanon in order to create a two front confrontation?
I don't think this would be the first time facing two threats on two fronts simutaneously. I'm afraid this is a more than likely possibility...
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  #28  
Old 13 Jan 09, 19:34
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HEAT, I don't think you should sticky this one.

I know that the majority of forum members agrees with the article, but to an unsuspecting dummy walking in it looks like there is an official endorsement towards one side of the conflict here.

I'm sure the thread will do fine without sticky bit.
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  #29  
Old 14 Jan 09, 01:19
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Originally Posted by Redwolf View Post
HEAT, I don't think you should sticky this one.

I know that the majority of forum members agrees with the article, but to an unsuspecting dummy walking in it looks like there is an official endorsement towards one side of the conflict here.
I thought it looked like an endorsement of an ACG magazine member...
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  #30  
Old 14 Jan 09, 11:25
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I thought it looked like an endorsement of an ACG magazine member...
So?
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