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Go Back   Armchair General and HistoryNet >> The Best Forums in History > Current Events > The Middle East > Gaza Conflicts

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Gaza Conflicts Discuss the series of conflicts between Israel and Gaza militants.

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  #1  
Old 31 Dec 08, 10:12
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Ralph Peters Analysis of Current Gaza Conflict

Ralph Peters has written a great summary of the main issues facing Israel (and the world) during this current crisis.

Quote:
(SPECIAL TO ARMCHAIR GENERAL, Dec. 30, 2008) Last Saturday, Israeli Defense Force aircraft launched over a hundred tons of precision-guided ordnance against a wide range of terrorist-related targets in the Gaza Strip. Extraordinarily well-planned and well-executed, that first wave of attacks was only the beginning.

Serious military observers were struck immediately by the changed mentality of the IDF and Israel’s government. In 2006, timidity, dithering and confusion led to a self-inflicted defeat. But the Israelis learned the hard lessons. When the first F-16s with blue and white insignia screamed in over Gaza last weekend, it became clear that the IDF—or at least its air arm—meant business this time.

http://www.armchairgeneral.com/the-g...mas-reacts.htm
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  #2  
Old 31 Dec 08, 10:36
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Fascinating article! Apart from his use of the word 'leftist'(this is not right vs. left, why start that war?). I totally support Israel in it's efforts to eradicate terrorism and think we should be willing to do the same, yet consider myself, in many aspects, liberal. I agree these Hamas-supporting idiots deserve a title though. I have an uncle who is a rabid Bush-loving conservative, and I know he's probably marching in one of these protests. I think the bias is more hawk vs. dove, though I think anti-Israel also plays a part. I have an ex-brother-in-law in Greece who is obsessed with this idea of a 'Jewish conspiracy'.

Last edited by macgregr; 31 Dec 08 at 10:43..
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  #3  
Old 31 Dec 08, 10:45
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ha, after Peters got it completely wrong on Georgia (and IRaq, and Afghanistan, etc.), I am not surprised he gets it completely wrong again here.

ok, I actually gointg to temper that. (I forgot to read the last page). ok, while I think his premises on the causes for war are totally wrong. he does say correctly what are the options for israel. and those are correct. I don't buy the "obama factor" though. obama will do just as all US pres do, cave in and slime at the feet of the lobby.
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Old 31 Dec 08, 10:46
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Quote:
Originally Posted by macgregr View Post
Apart from his use of the word 'leftist'(this is not right vs. left, why start that war?)

...

I think the bias is more hawk vs. dove
I think you'll find that the majority of anti-Israel people and organizations are leftist... not all, of course, but the majority.
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Old 31 Dec 08, 10:47
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Originally Posted by piero1971 View Post
ha, after Peters got it completely wrong on Georgia (and IRaq, and Afghanistan, etc.), I am not surprised he gets it completely wrong again here. pff, what a silly article...
Which parts are wrong?
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Old 31 Dec 08, 11:11
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I have found the article pretty spot on. Even the "left" comments aren't so far from the mark. Military nalysis is good and even political analysis... and still I have to see how Peters was so wrong in the past...
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Old 31 Dec 08, 11:12
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Originally Posted by sickpup View Post
I think you'll find that the majority of anti-Israel people and organizations are leftist... not all, of course, but the majority.
Perhaps my uncle is an anomaly. He's a smart guy -ex Navy pilot. But he's anti-gun and while perhaps not anti-Semitic(he was in love for many years with a Jewish woman), he's definitely anti-Israel. I got it! This is a violence bias. To some it's 'ooh violence...bad' and that's as far as they can see. Perhaps he'll be reincarnated as a tree. I believe there are two worlds; a peace-loving one, and a war-loving one, and that the former is responsible for protecting itself from the latter if it is to survive.
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Old 31 Dec 08, 11:23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by macgregr View Post
Perhaps my uncle is an anomaly. He's a smart guy -ex Navy pilot. But he's anti-gun and while perhaps not anti-Semitic(he was in love for many years with a Jewish woman), he's definitely anti-Israel.
Not sure why that would be an anomaly...

Quote:
I believe there are two worlds; a peace-loving one, and a war-loving one, and that the former is responsible for protecting itself from the latter if it is to survive.
The problem is that the "peace-loving" world has a double standard. Where was the outrage while Hamas was lobbing rockets at Israel for the last few weeks? (Sometimes upwards of 100 per day).

The standard excuse that I've heard has been "well, the Hamas rockets didn't kill very many people". In other words, the Israeli response has been "disproportionate". That's irrelevant.

Whereas Israel actually tries to limit civilian casualties, Hamas is trying to inflict civilian casualties. They just don't have the tools to do it.

Obama (of all people) nailed this ridiculous way of thinking when he said:

Quote:
“If someone was sending rockets on my house where my daughters were sleeping at night, I would do everything to stop it, and I would expect Israelis to do the same thing.”
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Old 31 Dec 08, 11:44
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I disagree with Ralph Peters's assessment.

The fact that IAF launched 100 tons of bombs doesn't prove any changed mentality. In the first 5 days of the 2006 war Israel bombed more than 1,000 targets in Lebanon. Most of them by way of the IAF. Nothing has changed in Israel's (over-)reliance on the air force.

The political timidity and hesitation has remained unchanged when it comes to ground troops.
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Old 31 Dec 08, 12:00
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I want to write, but as I watch CNN, I can't stop laughing. This protester is saying about Obama 'he has to be called out. He pretended to be an anti-war president' with this sad look like someone took her ice cream. Maybe the bias is reality vs. utopia. Certainly I'm as much of an anomaly as my uncle I guess, but then so are many of my friends(in Philly at least). Different regions tend to create different politics in people.
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Old 31 Dec 08, 21:05
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Not necessarily

Quote:
Originally Posted by Imperial View Post
I disagree with Ralph Peters's assessment.

The fact that IAF launched 100 tons of bombs doesn't prove any changed mentality. In the first 5 days of the 2006 war Israel bombed more than 1,000 targets in Lebanon. Most of them by way of the IAF. Nothing has changed in Israel's (over-)reliance on the air force.

The political timidity and hesitation has remained unchanged when it comes to ground troops.
Hezbollah spent years preparing and had excellent OPSEC. The IAF never had good enough targeting data to get as many weapons sites as would have been needed to avoid a ground attack. Hezbollah had also spent a tremendous amount of effort preparing anti armor defenses along possible IDF invasion routes and were quite well prepared when the ground attack did come.

In Gaza, Israel has good enough intell to take out individual Hamas and PIJ leaders driving to meetings. It would appear they have good enough targeting data to make a serious dent in Hamas capabilities. I imagine the are holding back the ground invasion to see how Hamas reacts and avoid rolling into another massive anti-armor ambush which was a tactic Hamas announced it would follow after the 2006 war.

Sending in the IAF first may look like 2006 all over again but without knowing what Hamas and Israel know about the situation on the ground we are really just speculating here.
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Old 01 Jan 09, 08:44
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Israeli dissident analytic writes that IDF op in Gaza is already stuck, Israelis are bogged down, and basically that's the end of the war: http://samsonblinded.org/news/israel...-momentum-5424
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Old 01 Jan 09, 12:52
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Another speculation

What if the only purpose of the ground troops is to ping Hamas into redeploying their forces thus exposing them to the IAF?
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Old 01 Jan 09, 23:34
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What if the only purpose of the ground troops is to ping Hamas into redeploying their forces thus exposing them to the IAF?

very good point
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Old 02 Jan 09, 20:12
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Ralph Peters has written a great summary of the main issues facing Israel (and the world) during this current crisis.
Actually, the only things he seems to summarize are the military issues: the limits of military power and how propoganda influences any long term military strategy.

Since there is no practical military solution to Israel's problems, it doesn't seem like he's summarizing anything of real importance.

Tim
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