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Go Back   Armchair General and HistoryNet >> The Best Forums in History > Current Events > Russia, Central Asia, and The Caucasus > South Ossetian Conflict

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South Ossetian Conflict Discuss the conflict between Georgia and Russia over South Ossetia.

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  #46  
Old 05 Feb 09, 01:35
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Originally Posted by RaduRO View Post
1) And weren't these centrifugal tendencies manifested? Everything from the Baltic State breakway to the Central Asia "Stans". What other fragmentations were prevented?
The RF still have a couple of "Stans" like Tatarstan. The Far East, Siberia, the Ural region, North Caucases could follow the path of the Soviet republics and separate from Moscow.


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As a side note, to my knowledge,the US aid was quickly gobbled up the Russia's own oligarchs. Or did you mean aid as in "bribe for unity" to start with?
It was the Kremlin that redistributed the US financial aid. Apparently something was regularly stolen and helped keep high-ranked bureacrats and oligarchs interested in preserving the federation, but something was used for keeping up federal apparatus and paying sallaries and pensions across the state.

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2) So you are saying that only the Georgian South Ossetians are the "true" Ossetians and the Northern ones in the Russian Fed are the "fake" "puppet" ones? Why was there even fought a conflict and why was Tsikhinvali shelled? Why the city? I would understand a mortar strike killing Russian peacekeepers that actually happened. But employing heavy artillery? Katyushas a la Berlin?
Tsihnvalli was shelled by both Georgain troops and RF's forces trying to recapture the town. It is an open question which side caused more damages and civilian victims in the S. Osetia during the hostilities.


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The entire story is rotten. Yes,Russia has interests there,but then again the conduct of the Georgian leadership is deplorable as well. I mean,why hasn't the Kosovo precedent been applied? Are the Ossetian's claims lesser than Kosovo Albanians? Simple, dismantling Georgia was not on the US's agenda.
S. Osetia can't be compared to Kosovo. Kosovars had an ambition to create an independant state while the Pro-Moscow S. Osetian regime only distributed the Russian citizenship among locals. It never allowed Georgians living in the S. Osetia to participate in the election. Not to mention that its elections were conducted without any independant observers.
S. Osetia had only 70000 population 1/3 of this population were Georgians. Kokoyte's separatist government made up of non-Osetian officers and bureacrats deployed from the RF will lose power as soon as Moscow stops to support it.
There had been two local governments before the war and the pro-Moscow Kokoyte's government has had almost no Ossetians holding key posts.

Last edited by Shamil; 05 Feb 09 at 01:53..
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  #47  
Old 05 Feb 09, 02:02
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Exorcist, Uzbeks have a nice autocratic system, so they're no threat to Putin. After reviewing what happened in Georgia I have a hard time of thinking other suitable targets than Georgia again. Ukraine is too damn big and strong - there's no way Putin could hope to wage small victorious war against them. Even an encore in Georgia looks doubtful given the freefall Putin's economy is in. I think he'll concentrate on holding on. For that he needs to make sure Putinjugend stands firm and loyal and hone their streetfighting skills.
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  #48  
Old 05 Feb 09, 02:30
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My last post was a goof, I somehow missed a whole page worth.

Thanks Shamil and PP, I have nothing more to add, I think...

E. The fact that the operation ended up US lead, was a show of weakness of EU. It should've been EU to take care of its problem. But since they couldn't and since US stands to lose a great deal of money and influence should Europe faulter, the US stepped in.

F. The Kosovo war is significant in one more interesting factoid - it was lead almost completely by center-left politicians - Clinton, Blair, Schröder and this Italian guy - not Berlusconi. In particular Schröder has exceedingly friendly to Russia and yet he dragged Germany into its first military engagement since WWII.


Very good, and not answered in a convincing way yet.

Yeah, the Uzbeks don't have much to worry about, and now a 2 Billion-dollar loan to Kyrgyzstan has been used to force that nation to close our Airbase there.
And as long as the Uzbeks are repressive, economically depressed and utterly miserable, they have nothing to fear from Putin trying to correct them. After all, it worked for Ceausescu's Romania. Despite flouting their W.P. responsibilities, recognizing Israel, and a host of other sins, Romania escaped the fate of Czechoslovakia and Hungary. It was never the kind of place that anyone would want to go to, in order to escape the misery of living under communism.
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  #49  
Old 05 Feb 09, 03:22
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Yes, we tend to treat our allies better than other countries, is that wrong? Is it unusual, or just an evil thing to do when it is the US doing it?
I already admitted that Kosovo was wrong, okay?
Of course there's nothing wrong with that.

I just wanted to point out that there is a connection between the two events.

In fact, in February 2008 Putin warned that if the US goes ahead and backs Kosovo's independence international law will be torn to shreds and Russia will see fit to behave in the same manner in other regions (listing Georgia as an example!).

I think the point here is that when the great powers start a tit-for-tat game the ones to lose are the small guys caught in-between and international law.

Russia was not able to save Yugoslavia from the NATO actions, the US was not able to save Georgia from Russia's actions. There is a NATO protectorate over Kosovo, there's a Russian protectorate over South Ossetia though Kosovo and South Ossetia are legally part of Serbia and Georgia respectively.
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  #50  
Old 05 Feb 09, 04:04
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In my humble opinion, Medvedev and Putins Russia are flexing their muscles to show that they are not the weak mess that they were under Yeltsin in his latter years in power.

America and Western Europe don't want to lose any influence so are doing exactly the same. I myself saw the Russian advance into Georgia (I deliberately avoid using the term invasion) as a test of strength. Mikhail Saakashvili certainly was trying to rub up the Russians the wrong way and made a mistake in thinking the American would back them all the way. Russia for its part took the chance to give Georgia a slap down.

Russia overpowered Georgia quickly and some say that they used inappropriate force regarding their aims. Could not the same be said of Israel? I don't agree with Russia'S explanation of just looking out for Russian people. They were looking to show their new power and determination, Saakashvili was silly enoguh to give them a reason. There are always two sides to consider though.

America and the West were rather one sided in their views on the Yugoslav wars and saw Serbia as the bad guy. Things are not that easy. War crimes and attrocities were made by all sides. Later on the Kosovo conflict came up and the bombing of Serbia was made because they were 'bad'. The bombing had no effect strategically, it just hurt everyday people who had nothing to do with Milosevic. The west choose who they want to feel for. The Albanian Kosovans are the same as the Osettians, the Kurds, Hill tribes in South East Asia. Russia chose to show strength for S.Osettia against Western wishes, the West did the same with Kosovo.

The fact is, Putin/Medvedev and Bush/Obama/European leaders (too many to name) are all the same. They just want to show their muscles and prove they are right. It is black and white syndrome. No one can be right. There are always two sides to the same coin.

Apologies if I have rambled. i think I have. Nevermind thats me.
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Old 05 Feb 09, 04:13
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I think the point here is that when the great powers start a tit-for-tat game the ones to lose are the small guys caught in-between and international law.

Agreed.
This has been going on since ancient Greece, and international law... if there really is such a thing... can be used to facilitate it, even more easily than it can be to prevent it.
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  #52  
Old 05 Feb 09, 13:25
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Tsihnvalli was shelled by both Georgain troops and RF's forces trying to recapture the town
Where is any proof of Russia shelling Tsnihavli? And when? (save your time posting wikipedia).
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  #53  
Old 05 Feb 09, 13:42
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Obama risks alienating a lot of allies, if he backs down on the missiles - plus he would risk losing European support on his Iranian policies. I think he'll find the missiles quite necessary - unless of course Iran miraculously "unclenches its fist". I'd wagure he will try to offer Russia some additional face-saving measure like reduction of the number of ballistic missiles.

Russia's offensive options have been decimated by the crises for at least the following five years. It is very likely that by that time NATO has more integration and there are more NATO facilities in all of the new NATO states making the question about the missiles moot. In the end with regard to NATO vs Russia relations it doesn't matter whether it is a missile base or a logistics center.
A lot of allies? Priceless ones like Estonia? Russia is a more important ally for the USA more than Czech, Poland, and Estonia combined. If the leader of the USA doesn't see this than he is an idiot, even George Bush saw it to some degree. In Czhech most people don't want these installations, in Poland, I don't know, I heard most don't either.

I hope the missiles will not happen because:

1) Since President Obama actually believes in diplomacy US-Iranian relations will be bettered and there will be no need for any missiles.
2) They don't work, and wouldn't help against Iran.
3) He doesn't wanna irritate Russia over this.

The second point was that it is wrong for any country to "limit" Russia's offensive potential, or any other potential. Even the website for missile defense tries to say that the missiles won't limit Russian offensive capability. And I don't care whether it's true or not, if not they are lying, otherwise it's an offensive move against Russia and it is correct to object.
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Old 05 Feb 09, 15:11
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Originally Posted by Emil_G View Post
A lot of allies? Priceless ones like Estonia? Russia is a more important ally for the USA more than Czech, Poland, and Estonia combined. If the leader of the USA doesn't see this than he is an idiot, even George Bush saw it to some degree. In Czhech most people don't want these installations, in Poland, I don't know, I heard most don't either.
No, I was thinking more like UK - which is in the end what the missiles are defending. The missiles doesn't do anything for us, but we're very unlikely targets for Iran anyway. London on the other hand...

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Originally Posted by Emil_G View Post
I hope the missiles will not happen because:
1) Since President Obama actually believes in diplomacy US-Iranian relations will be bettered and there will be no need for any missiles.
The unclench your fist stuff. Heh. Wasn't this how Bush started out with Iran? It didn't get him very far. It didn't get Clinton too far either. But hey, there's always hope. Fortunately democratic Iraq will bring the mullahs down sooner or later, but will that be before or after the nuclear holocaust?

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2) They don't work, and wouldn't help against Iran.
Are you privy to some testing date the rest of us aren't? There's nothing wrong with the concept. I don't know if the application works or not, but obviously somebody thinks it would work. Besides just the fact that there is a possibility of defence takes the edge of Iran's blackmail.

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3) He doesn't wanna irritate Russia over this.
Everything irritates Russia, so he'll just have to relax and live with it just like the rest of us.

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Originally Posted by Emil_G View Post
The second point was that it is wrong for any country to "limit" Russia's offensive potential, or any other potential. Even the website for missile defense tries to say that the missiles won't limit Russian offensive capability. And I don't care whether it's true or not, if not they are lying, otherwise it's an offensive move against Russia and it is correct to object.
Russia's offensive potential may not be limited - an interesting concept. Those pesky Poles should immediately disband their military. I hope you'll send some nasty e-mails to Finnish defence ministry. The new stated policy of Finland of buying only NATO standard equipment is at least as limiting to Russia's offensive potential as the missile base in Poland.

BTW I think you've misunderstood what I mean by limiting Russia's offensive potential. The 10 interceptors have no effect on Russia's nuclear deterrent. None. However what the missile base means is that there will be US soldiers on Polish soil. That in turn means that any conventional attack on Poland is that much more likely to trigger an immediate response from US - which it is supposed to happen anyway because of treaty obligation.
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Old 05 Feb 09, 15:23
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No, I was thinking more like UK - which is in the end what the missiles are defending. The missiles doesn't do anything for us, but we're very unlikely targets for Iran anyway. London on the other hand...
Oh right, London, who can't even create their own missile defense. I as an American, can care less if LONDON is alienated, France was alienated for a few years - what difference did it make really?

Quote:
The unclench your fist stuff. Heh. Wasn't this how Bush started out with Iran? It didn't get him very far. It didn't get Clinton too far either. But hey, there's always hope. Fortunately democratic Iraq will bring the mullahs down sooner or later, but will that be before or after the nuclear holocaust?
"The smoking gun will be a mushroom cloud", yeah whatever. So far Bush Co. have been wrong about not just that...

Quote:
Are you privy to some testing date the rest of us aren't? There's nothing wrong with the concept. I don't know if the application works or not, but obviously somebody thinks it would work. Besides just the fact that there is a possibility of defence takes the edge of Iran's blackmail.
Ha! "Somebody thinks it might work" I guess that's good enough for you.

Quote:
Everything irritates Russia, so he'll just have to relax and live with it just like the rest of us.
Yeah, everything. They are just such bad sports.

Quote:
BTW I think you've misunderstood what I mean by limiting Russia's offensive potential. The 10 interceptors have no effect on Russia's nuclear deterrent. None. However what the missile base means is that there will be US soldiers on Polish soil. That in turn means that any conventional attack on Poland is that much more likely to trigger an immediate response from US - which it is supposed to happen anyway because of treaty obligation.
Maybe I misunderstood. I know the Polish government wants various foreign agents, armies, blacksite torture prisons, anything on their soil as long as its not Russian. Old news.

Anyway, unlike WWII and prior, this is happening in our time - let's wait and see!
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Old 05 Feb 09, 15:38
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Emil, you might not care, but I know a certain arugula eating intellectual in Washington who does care.

Look, I think Iran is a bigger threat for Europe and world stability than Putin no matter his pompous rhetorics (admittedly before SO I ranked Putin much higher on the threat-o-meter - and our defence ministry's assessments have also helped to alleviate my concerns) - while Putin has shot himself in the foot more than once it has not been intentional and I don't think there's a risk that Putin nukes us for say convicting some Soviet war criminal. Iran is much more unpredicable and it is possible that the mullahs arrive to some end-game conclusion where they think ending it all in a mushroom cloud is a good option. Maybe they'll have a fit if the pesky Danes publish some cartoons again.

NATO/US should put the missile defence system where it has the best chance of working - whether it irritates Putin should be his own personal problem not ours. Let's just make sure we have updated the virus protection software to counter the cyber attack.

Last edited by pp(est); 05 Feb 09 at 15:40..
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Old 05 Feb 09, 15:47
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Originally Posted by pp(est) View Post
Emil, you might not care, but I know a certain arugula eating intellectual in Washington who does care.

Look, I think Iran is a bigger threat for Europe and world stability than Putin no matter his pompous rhetorics (admittedly before SO I ranked Putin much higher on the threat-o-meter) - while Putin has shot himself in the foot more than once it has not been intentional and I don't think there's a risk that Putin nukes us for say convicting some Soviet war criminal. Iran is much more unpredicable and it is possible that the mullahs arrive to some end-game conclusion where they think ending it all in a mushroom cloud is a good option. Maybe they'll have a fit if the pesky Danes publish some cartoons again.

NATO/US should put the missile defence system where it has the best chance of working - whether it irritates Putin should be his own personal problem not ours. Let's just make sure we have updated the virus protection software to counter the cyber attack.
Arguwhat? If this thing is supposed to protect western europe, you won't be covered, and even if all your right wing, christian paranoia about Iran is true - and they develop and build a nuke (something they haven't done yet w/o any missile shields in place) and then nuke someone just out of sheer spite and malice, because they are evil, barbarous people, do you really think they will pick Estonia as their target? Not Israel?
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Old 05 Feb 09, 16:24
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Don't worry. I am not a Christian. I am a heathen pagan.

And I specifically mentioned that we're not a target and that the missile shield doesn't do anything specific for us. But having London wiped out would suck. Where would I go to shop then?

Sure Israel is higher on the potential targets list. But so is London.
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Old 05 Feb 09, 16:54
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You're a Christian, come on. If you were Pagan you wouldn't say "heathen pagan". You'd say Wiccan, or Pagan.

Shop in Moscow, it has better and more boutiques and other nice western stores than Paris, not to mention London.
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Old 05 Feb 09, 17:17
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You're a Christian, come on. If you were Pagan you wouldn't say "heathen pagan". You'd say Wiccan, or Pagan.

Shop in Moscow, it has better and more boutiques and other nice western stores than Paris, not to mention London.
You obviously don't know what prices they have in Moscow. And they've no decent bookshops. No, its London for me.

Wiccan, Pagan, yeh. New Age cr*p. No, I am heathen pagan - the proper kind or rather not very proper kind, the kind that doesn't believe in anything except Ronald Reagan or Margaret Thatcher. I haven't even been baptized so I can't by definition be a Christian.
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