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Go Back   Armchair General and HistoryNet >> The Best Forums in History > Current Events > Russia, Central Asia, and The Caucasus > South Ossetian Conflict

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South Ossetian Conflict Discuss the conflict between Georgia and Russia over South Ossetia.

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  #1  
Old 12 Aug 08, 16:05
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Georgia-South Ossetia-Russia Conflict : Update August 12, 2008

Aug. 12, 2008. Armchair General magazine's editor-in-chief, Jerry Morelock (former Chief of Russia Branch on the Joint Staff in the Pentagon) provides this update into the Republic of Georgia - South Ossetia - Russia conflict.... Full Article
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  #2  
Old 12 Aug 08, 16:39
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Good article, Morelock seems to think that the current conflict will push some of the former Soviet satellites into Nato's arms. I'm inclined to agree.
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Old 12 Aug 08, 16:54
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It is dangerous territory, and a path we've been down before. It is not unreasonable to think that NATO could be drawn into a war over a tiny former Soviet nation because of an agreement that says we must fight when any of us are attacked (assuming some of these former Soviet satellites are accepted into NATO). This is exactly the situation Russia is hoping for...not war with NATO, but using the fear of war to prevent NATO from expanding any further.

Score one for Russia, and welcome to a dangerous new world because of it.
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Old 12 Aug 08, 23:02
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Good, calm, well-supported article. Thanks to Mr. Morelock
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Old 13 Aug 08, 01:13
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Thumbs up Thank's for that link SH!

Mr. Morelock and Mr. Peters seem to know their stuff and have put together a couple of very informative articles.
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Old 16 Aug 08, 23:17
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Post Very nice article,

I wish I would have seen this forum come up when this first started. Regardless, I hope the US is now fully awake now on looking at other "problem" areas than the ones we are in now.
Has anyone heard of the presidential candidates comment on what they might do here? A bit off topic, but it looks like we were caught sleeping again here in the US, not good all in all I think.

Tom
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Old 18 Aug 08, 00:16
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Originally Posted by TRDG View Post
I wish I would have seen this forum come up when this first started. Regardless, I hope the US is now fully awake now on looking at other "problem" areas than the ones we are in now.
Has anyone heard of the presidential candidates comment on what they might do here? A bit off topic, but it looks like we were caught sleeping again here in the US, not good all in all I think.

Tom
..i wouldnt be too critical Tom, the US have a aweful lot on their plate already, cant be evrywhere at once..
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Old 18 Aug 08, 15:32
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Lightbulb Oh, I understand that, trust me there, but

The US had no clue here that any of this might happen? There must have been some indication, don't you think some of the troop movements and build up. I take it our satilites were tasked over the "other" wars area's, rather than here around Georgia, but still, it has me a bit worried about the future here, as it relates to the US intel and what if we really needed to respond here with military force, bottom line it is not good, but at least we now know to take a closer look in the areas on the Russian border.

Cheers, thanks for the reply!!

Tom
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Old 18 Aug 08, 20:54
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Very hard to know what to think on this one, but let me try out a line of reasoning.

When the USSR broke up, Russian minorities were left behind in all the newly independent states. These minorities are bound to feel oppressed to some degree because they now live in countries administered in different languages - languages which they have often neglected to learn. I myself as a Russian speaker recently encountered some slight and probably unthinking hostility in Estonia.

Specifically in the Caucasus there are so many tribal remnants and conflicting allegiances that the possibilities of ethnic strife are ever present to a high degree.

What is needed to navigate to a harmonious future is responsible government in all the former Soviet republics, Russia included. Backing the regime of Mr Saakashvili, who does not have universal support amongst his own people, is therefore a mistake as it may give him freedom of action to act [I]irresponsibly.[I]

The Russian incursion into Georgia may also prove to be a mistake because it will solve nothing in the longer term. On the other hand, this is undoubtedly Russia's back yard (bit like Grenada for the USA in 1982), and there has been trouble in South Ossetia before, not to mention the dispute in Chechnya.

On balance I believe that the Russians are putting down a marker, and NATO is unwise to pursue a policy that physically encircles Russia in a replay of the 19th century Eastern Question. The European Union should also keep Georgia at arms length for the time being. (Why, incidentally, was Mr Saakashvili giving a press conference in Tbilisi with the European flag as well as his own behind his rostrum?)

No, the Russian action was unwise, but any strongly adverse Western reaction is equally so. Let us therefore sit down and talk about it - if Russians can live in independent Baltic republics, they can live in Georgia, but only if a responsible government upholds their rights. And the Georgian army shelling Tskhinvali was certainly not doing that - in all honsty, what other action could the Russian government have taken?
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Old 19 Aug 08, 21:40
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Probably not an intelligence failure . . .

Quote:
Originally Posted by TRDG View Post
The US had no clue here that any of this might happen? There must have been some indication, don't you think some of the troop movements and build up. I take it our satilites were tasked over the "other" wars area's, rather than here around Georgia, but still, it has me a bit worried about the future here, as it relates to the US intel and what if we really needed to respond here with military force, bottom line it is not good, but at least we now know to take a closer look in the areas on the Russian border.

Cheers, thanks for the reply!!

Tom
The Russians have been in Geogia for centuries and still do business there so there really wasn't much preparation needed. The 58th Army is garrisoned just across the border and the separatist areas were already occupied by Russian 'peacekeepers' who keep a close eye on their Geogian counteparts 24/7 anyway. All the Russians had to do was crank their engines and drive down the road into S. Ossetia. Instant war. No build-up needed, nothing to see.
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Old 19 Aug 08, 22:18
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Wink Then

why the training exorcises there in the rescent past, no idea if this was in any way connected, but how could Georgia have missed this, and the US intel. I understand your other points, but was it still in the Russian plans to break the two cease fires they signed up for?

Thanks for the help here GC.

Tom
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