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Go Back   Armchair General and HistoryNet >> The Best Forums in History > Current Events > Russia, Central Asia, and The Caucasus > South Ossetian Conflict

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South Ossetian Conflict Discuss the conflict between Georgia and Russia over South Ossetia.

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  #46  
Old 12 Aug 08, 03:29
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some very very good analysis I think of the situation - WARNING it blames all sides!


http://wiredispatch.com/news/?id=290466

http://www.spiked-online.com/index.p.../article/5568/

http://www.odt.co.nz/opinion/editori...rgia039s-folly


I learned that Georgia's prez is a lawyer... now it figures!!!
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  #47  
Old 12 Aug 08, 03:38
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Kosovo was definitely a Pandora's box, but I don't think there was any way to avoid the US and Europe getting involved when reports started coming out of Serbian brutality again. The governments had already taken plenty of heat for not acting forcefully early on with the breakup of Yugoslavia and not acting at all with Rwanda.
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  #48  
Old 12 Aug 08, 04:08
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Well..... i personnaly think this analysis is wrong.

It is true that russia has plan to react to a conflict against georgia since a lot of time and they are just executing a plan defined a long time ago.

First critic : the massive concentration of troops
Caucasus is in a baddest situation that balkan potentialy and has always been the biggest concentration of russian troops
Now that american and russian intel begun to show up their information we learned that most of their troops were in chechnya and have been redployed from there.
You have to analyse this composition of troops : veteran statione in chechnya AND volunteer troop of the neo-coassak movment, chechnian ossetian. A really high rate of "minor" nationality , it is mostly fopr showing the new unity of the russian confederation. And this troop , reinforcement, were not in the vincinity directly of georgia border. How fast they redployed there is a really good feat thou but it still takes two days to equip thios volunteer and send them to the front line.

Second critic : what we see now
Russia never wanted to totaly push out from south ossetia georgian troops. They need them there for diplomatic matter, they needed to use this to show that georgian are occupying what russia say is a foreign country.
Look at the first day of battle, when the russian tank column entered they totaly surprised the georgian troop wich quickly try to withdrawn to gain position in the line but the russian advance was fast(it took them one or two hour to control the main road) and south osetian guerilla inflict casulty, russia could have easily attain the pass and take it, but they let georgian stay , they let fight go on and the capital be under fire to show that georgia was destroying and comiting a "genocide" .
Russia even prevented this troop to retreat as the airforce was destroying infrastrcture behind them. It is methodical , georgia is now virtually isolated.
To show this an another important point : what is happening today. Russian troop while they stay on their position in south ossetia , with fewer force then the one in SO are totally crushing georgian troop in abhakazia , and just in few hour virtually cut georgia in two.
Since the begining it was their plan : direct the attention to south ossetia , try to show that it is a mess and not an invasion , that the solution must be pull out by russia and georgia, direct diplomatic, media attention toward there.
Deploy concelead troop near abhakazia and before the 100meter in pekin is finished, conquer.

Russia don't want south ossetia (abhakazia thoo has a nice potential of tourism value) they prefer an independant smuggler den wich remain a thorn forever for georgia.
Russia don't want to conquer, they know how a trap it can be to occupy a foreign nation. They don't want diretc puppet governement, even with bielarus it trigger problem and they experienced it with soviet union. They want a country wich economicaly and in foreign affair align with them , they don't care at all of domestic policies, it can be heaven or hell...

In 1944 there was bagration , one of the best executed plan of all time (along with d day for me) in wich the soviet union mastered what they called Merestrovka (spelling?) a military doctrin on wich they control attention of their ennemi toward one thing , while on the other hand they act , concealed and finally totaly cought out of their pant their ennemy.
And it is what is happening today but on world mass media stage.

Last edited by Seten; 12 Aug 08 at 04:12..
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  #49  
Old 12 Aug 08, 04:12
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Do you mean maskirovka?
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Old 12 Aug 08, 05:31
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yes ^^'
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  #51  
Old 12 Aug 08, 07:24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate View Post
How do you know the Kremlin didn't cover it up? Respect other borders,hmm...Estonia,Latvia,Finland,Mongolia,Pola nd,etc,etc, might have something to say about that.
Well please give me example of some country that borders are RESPECTED by US

atleast 4 examples please
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  #52  
Old 12 Aug 08, 07:25
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If I may put my couple cents on this. What does South Ossetia have that Georgia needs? How many families are divided by the boarder? I say give South Ossetia to Russia, but thats it! There is no need for Russia to attack Anything outside of that!
If slaughterer of our people somewhere outside
there is no place to hide for him
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  #53  
Old 12 Aug 08, 07:28
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it's true that empires have their way on that. but look, everybody has, USA first right? from indians, Philipines, Cuba to Iraq. but let's not (me first) accuse the US - I think they are not that much to blame as some think on this one.

what is the real point here is these questions:
- Have South Ossetians and Abkhazians the right to self determination?
- Is Russia right to use it's power on it's borders?

I think for the first yes, and for the second yes, as much as western nations did on Kosovo (I knew then that that was a Pandora's box, indeed a tribute to Clinton and Albright's folly).

hey for this once, there is not much to blame on Bush Jr!! it's all Clinton!

Not totaly correct
at first WE HAVE A RIGTH AND A DUTY to protect our OWN CITIZENS ANYWHERE
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  #54  
Old 12 Aug 08, 07:30
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Originally Posted by vyshka View Post
Kosovo was definitely a Pandora's box, but I don't think there was any way to avoid the US and Europe getting involved when reports started coming out of Serbian brutality again. The governments had already taken plenty of heat for not acting forcefully early on with the breakup of Yugoslavia and not acting at all with Rwanda.

Yeah? Where was they when muslims butchered thousand of SERBIANS?

Europe and US are blind WHEN IT IS IN THEIR OWN INTERESTS
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  #55  
Old 12 Aug 08, 11:39
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Yeah? Where was they when muslims butchered thousand of SERBIANS?

Europe and US are blind WHEN IT IS IN THEIR OWN INTERESTS
LMAO! And Russia isn't? It's called world politics, Jerkov, and I would be pissed if my country DIDN'T act in its own best interests. Isn't that what Russia is doing under the guise of destroying Georgia? It sure would put a dent on competing oil coming through the region.

Ever heard the term "clueless"?
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  #56  
Old 12 Aug 08, 11:47
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LMAO! And Russia isn't? It's called world politics, Jerkov, and I would be pissed if my country DIDN'T act in its own best interests. Isn't that what Russia is doing under the guise of destroying Georgia? It sure would put a dent on competing oil coming through the region.

Ever heard the term "clueless"?
PUT THAT OIL PIPE DIRECTLY TO YOUR *******
БАКЛАН
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Last edited by Jukov; 12 Aug 08 at 11:51..
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  #57  
Old 12 Aug 08, 11:58
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Originally Posted by Jukov View Post
PUT THAT OIL PIPE DIRECTLY TO YOUR *******
БАКЛАН
Do I put the БАКЛАН (Cormorant) in my butt before or after the pipeline? It's likely to be a very tight fit, since I've never had anything up there before....
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Old 12 Aug 08, 12:00
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Do I put the БАКЛАН (Cormorant) in my butt before or after the pipeline? It's likely to be a very tight fit, since I've never had anything up there before....
EVERYTHING IS EVENTUALY HAPPENS FOR A FIRST TIME
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  #59  
Old 12 Aug 08, 12:03
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My Discussion With You Is Closed Intil Your Apologies
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Old 12 Aug 08, 12:26
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My Discussion With You Is Closed Intil Your Apologies
Apologies? For what, refusing to comply with your vehement request that I shove an oil pipeline up my ass?

Don't think so, Corky.
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