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Go Back   Armchair General and HistoryNet >> The Best Forums in History > Current Events > Russia, Central Asia, and The Caucasus > South Ossetian Conflict

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South Ossetian Conflict Discuss the conflict between Georgia and Russia over South Ossetia.

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  #16  
Old 13 Aug 08, 08:27
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The Russo-Georgian War and the Balance of Power August 12, 2008
By George Friedman

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/russo..._balance_power
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  #17  
Old 13 Aug 08, 14:16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ktnbs View Post
Informative article. Helped me get a better idea of the whole deal.
Agreed. Excellent article, Jerry.
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  #18  
Old 13 Aug 08, 15:51
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Some interesting articles;

In Russia-Georgia Conflict, Balkan Shadows

Is Kosovo the reason Russia is in Georgia?

Georgia-Russia Clash: A 'Bump' or 'Fork' in Road?

Long lasting effects of the war in Georgia
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Old 13 Aug 08, 15:59
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BrownBear View Post
The Russo-Georgian War and the Balance of Power August 12, 2008
By George Friedman
Thanks for this. Nice map there too.
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  #20  
Old 15 Aug 08, 06:12
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Georgia modeled its army after IDF

Georgia modeled its army after IDF (Israeli Defense Forces)

Quote:
"Georgian government officials used to tell me that they wanted to model their army after the IDF," former Israeli ambassador to Georgia Shabtai Zur told Ynet Sunday evening amid the country's bloody feud with Russia over the separatist region of South Ossetia.
Quote:
"In my opinion these developments are due in part to advice Georgia received from Israeli companies that operate there," Zur said, adding that the economic development in the country has attracted many Israeli businessmen.
Quote:
"The private company of Brig.-Gen. (res.) Gal Hirsch (Galilee Division commander during the Second Lebanon War) has been operating in Georgia for some time now and is providing consultation to the Georgian army," he noted.
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7...580522,00.html

FURTHER:

Quote:
For past seven years, Israeli companies have been helping Gerogian army to preparer for war against Russia through arms deals, training of infantry units and security advice
I
Quote:
srael began selling arms to Georgia about seven years ago following an initiative by Georgian citizens who immigrated to Israel and became businesspeople.


"They contacted defense industry officials and arms dealers and told them that Georgia had relatively large budgets and could be interested in purchasing Israeli weapons," says a source involved in arms exports.


The military cooperation between the countries developed swiftly. The fact that Georgia's defense minister, Davit Kezerashvili, is a former Israeli who is fluent in Hebrew contributed to this cooperation.


"His door was always open to the Israelis who came and offered his country arms systems made in Israel," the source said. "Compared to countries in Eastern Europe, the deals in this country were conducted fast, mainly due to the defense minister's personal involvement."
http://www.ynetnews.com/Ext/Comp/Art...0136%2C00.html
It is worth reading the whole of that article.
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Old 15 Aug 08, 09:34
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Now that's interesting . . .

So the people selling you the weapons are possibly telling you what you want to hear - as long as you keep buying weapons.

Israeli model depends in part on having a massive reserve force that was trained when young based on IDF conscription. Georgia clearly had clearly not gotten very far. The also don't have the other key thing the IDF has - the Israeli economy.

Looks like the Georgians had a plan for military reform and modernization but got into a war much too soon. The key problem they seemed not to grasp was the mismatch between a force capable of attacking against the Ossetians [what they tried building] and a force capable of defending against the Russians [what they needed]. They concentrated on the wrong one. That tells me that the ruling party's political goals were unachievable and they were trying to use their Army to force the issue when they should have faced facts and looked for another political solution.
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  #22  
Old 15 Aug 08, 09:41
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GCoyote View Post
So the people selling you the weapons are possibly telling you what you want to hear - as long as you keep buying weapons.

Israeli model depends in part on having a massive reserve force that was trained when young based on IDF conscription. Georgia clearly had clearly not gotten very far. The also don't have the other key thing the IDF has - the Israeli economy.

Looks like the Georgians had a plan for military reform and modernization but got into a war much too soon. The key problem they seemed not to grasp was the mismatch between a force capable of attacking against the Ossetians [what they tried building] and a force capable of defending against the Russians [what they needed]. They concentrated on the wrong one. That tells me that the ruling party's political goals were unachievable and they were trying to use their Army to force the issue when they should have faced facts and looked for another political solution.
Excellent analysis.......
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  #23  
Old 15 Aug 08, 11:00
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very interesting. it may explain why Israel is cajoling both sides... weapon sales and also to avoid russian weapon sales to syria, iran, etc.

ah, as I leave for two-week no-internet holidays, I'll miss this forum...
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  #24  
Old 15 Aug 08, 12:15
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I'd like to know how many of the Georgian government's ministers are ex- Israeli fluent Hebrew speakers. Is it just the Defense minister and Reintegration minister or are there many more? But then we can't draw any conclusions can we, after all there are many Jews (even if they are not ex-Israelis but dual-nationals) in the Bush administration and several in the British government, and Sarkozy is Jewish and the possible future PM in the UK (Miliband) also. It is easy to assume this translates into favouritism towards Israel. Israel stopped supplying Georgia with arms as soon as Russia attacked.

Quote:
"I'm staying here," declared Georgian Reintegration Minister Temor Yakobashvili, who is responsible for liaison with the separatist areas in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, with a dismissive wave of his hand. Yakobashvili, who speaks fluent Hebrew, is a former Zionist leader, but now, he is more representative of members of the Jewish community who are well-connected in Georgia. And no, he does not know of any Jewish friends who are planning to leave.
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1011968.html
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Old 15 Aug 08, 14:01
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Venus View Post
. . . It is easy to assume this translates into favouritism towards Israel. Israel stopped supplying Georgia with arms as soon as Russia attacked.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1011968.html
I also saw some speculation that Israel's cessation of arms sales to Georgia was in return for further delay in delivering S-300s to Iran.

As far as the "Reintegration Minister" [if he still has a job] I imaging his office is going to awfully quiet for a long time to come.
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Old 15 Aug 08, 17:26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GCoyote View Post
I also saw some speculation that Israel's cessation of arms sales to Georgia was in return for further delay in delivering S-300s to Iran.

As far as the "Reintegration Minister" [if he still has a job] I imaging his office is going to awfully quiet for a long time to come.
That sounds very plausible. Has this Israeli threat to neutralise Russian defences been discussed on the forum yet?

Quote:
If Russia goes through with the sale of its most advanced anti-aircraft missile system to Iran, Israel will use an electronic warfare device now under development to neutralize it and as a result present Russia as vulnerable to air infiltrations, a top defense official has told The Jerusalem Post.


The Russian system, called the S-300, is one of the most advanced multi-target anti-aircraft-missile systems in the world today and has a reported ability to track up to 100 targets simultaneously while engaging up to 12 at the same time. It has a range of about 200 kilometers and can hit targets at altitudes of 27,000 meters.

While Russia has denied that it sold the system to Iran, Teheran claimed last year that Moscow was preparing to equip the Islamic Republic with S-300 systems. Iran already has TOR-M1 surface-to-air missiles from Russia.
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satelli...cle%2FShowFull

Could they just be bluffing that they can develop that? I would have thought a threat like that would only make Russia feel they should move quickly before any such technology can hamper them.
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Old 15 Aug 08, 20:51
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Goes back to the bombing of the Syrian nuclear facility.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Venus View Post
That sounds very plausible. Has this Israeli threat to neutralise Russian defences been discussed on the forum yet?


http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satelli...cle%2FShowFull

Could they just be bluffing that they can develop that? I would have thought a threat like that would only make Russia feel they should move quickly before any such technology can hamper them.
The question came up about how the IAF got in almost got out before the Syrians were able to respond. One idea was they were able to jam late model Russian radars. So the question become, "can they jam the S-300s radars?" Lots of people want to know the answer to that one.
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Last edited by GCoyote; 15 Aug 08 at 22:26.. Reason: needed an "out"
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Old 15 Aug 08, 21:46
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If Russia goes through with the sale of its most advanced anti-aircraft missile system to Iran, Israel will use an electronic warfare device now under development to neutralize it and as a result present Russia as vulnerable to air infiltrations, a top defense official has told The Jerusalem Post.
Why are the doing it? S-300 is purely defensive system
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Old 15 Aug 08, 22:29
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Because of the "peaceful" nuclear program . . .

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Originally Posted by BrownBear View Post
Why are the doing it? S-300 is purely defensive system
Athought why they need a "peaceful" nuclear program on the scale of the Manhattan Project has never been adequately explained by Tehran.
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Old 16 Aug 08, 05:09
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More on Israeli involvement, this time from Arab source rather than Israeli:

Quote:
But it's also yet another made-in-Israel war. A thousand military advisers from Israeli security firms have been training the country's armed forces and were deeply involved in the Georgian army's preparations to attack and capture the capital of South Ossetia, according to the Israeli website Debkafiles which has close links with the regime's intelligence and military sources. Haaretz reported that Yakobashvili told Army Radio, in Hebrew, "Israel should be proud of its military which trained Georgian soldiers." "We killed 60 Russian soldiers just yesterday," he boasted on Monday. "The Russians have lost more than 50 tanks, and we have shot down 11 of their planes. They have enormous damage in terms of manpower." He warned that the Russians would try and open another battlefront in Abkhazia and denied reports that the Georgian army was retreating. "The Georgian forces are not retreating. We move our military according to security needs."

Israelis are active in real estate, tourism, gaming, military manufacturing and security consulting in Georgia, including former Tel Aviv mayor Roni Milo and Likudite and gambling operator Reuven Gavrieli. "The Russians don't look kindly on the military cooperation of Israeli firms with the Georgian army, and as far as I know, Israelis doing security consulting left Georgia in the past few days because of the events there," the former Israeli ambassador to Georgia and Armenia, Baruch Ben Neria, said yesterday. Since his posting, Ben Neria has represented Rafael Advanced Defence Systems in Georgia.
http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2008/910/in1.htm
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