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Go Back   Armchair General and HistoryNet >> The Best Forums in History > Current Events > East Asia and the Pacific > North Korea

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North Korea The nuclear crisis in North Korea, including testing, sabre-rattling, sanctions, etc.

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  #1  
Old 27 Sep 17, 15:19
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What is the best option?

From an Australian member of Labour -

Quote:
It is shocking to put to print. However, with North Korea’s inexorable advance towards developing a nuclear-tipped ICBM, we enter the realm of bad choices. On balance, war on the peninsula is the least bad alternative. There are some months left for a brilliant diplomatic breakthrough that turns North Korea from the brink – these avenues must be energetically and exhaustively pursued. This analysis is presented on the fair assumption that such initiatives will fail.

This strategic assessment assumes one of two possibilities. First, that the U.S. accepts North Korea developing nuclear-tipped ICBMs capable of reaching the continental homeland, thereby allowing Pyongyang to achieve a stable deterrence relationship. Second, the U.S. seeks to disarm North Korea with a major military strike. Related possibilities such as a limited strike are ignored, as this overcomplicates matters and escalation should be assumed in any case.

In each scenario, I provide a range of consequences. Not all futures will come to pass, but some combination of these are a certainty and have a direct cause-and-effect relationship with the chosen course of action.
http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the...2422?page=show
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  #2  
Old 27 Sep 17, 16:12
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Forget Korea, that horse has left the stable.
Focus on Iran.
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  #3  
Old 27 Sep 17, 22:47
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Imperial View Post
Forget Korea, that horse has left the stable.
Really?
You wanna tell Beijing, or should I?


Quote:
Originally Posted by Imperial View Post
Focus on Iran.
If North Korea is the nation-state equivalent of the Short-Buss (thanks, Archer!) then Iran is the Geo-political equivalent of one of those compounds in Idaho with one Husband, a dozen under-aged wives and platoons of children that move like barely-tame animals.

I mean, damn, why can't we have grown-up enemies anymore?
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  #4  
Old 28 Sep 17, 05:24
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North Korea already has nukes, that horse has bolted. Moreover, it seems to me Fatboy Kim actually wants to goad the US into attacking. Getting the US caught up in a costly war there must be what his handlers want. Meanwhile, if that happens, Iran wins more time to get its own nukes.
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Old 28 Sep 17, 05:27
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Kim has threatened to nuke the US homeland and Guam and he's test-flown a missile over Japan, yet amazingly Trump has done NOTHING except talk the talk!
Hey Don, prove to us that you're not a softy and walk the walk , no need for a ground war, simply surgically take out a few of Kims nuke missile sites and installations with conventional cruise and drone strikes to teach him a lesson, it's a "target-rich environment" out there and once you've drawn his nuclear teeth he'll be as harmless as a fluffy kitten..

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Old 28 Sep 17, 05:34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Imperial View Post
Forget Korea, that horse has left the stable.
I agree.

Quote:
Focus on Iran.
Only way to prevent a capable nation state from obtaining nuclear weapons is to convince them they don't need nuclear weapons.

Developments of recent decades have done exactly the opposite, I fear there too it's just a matter of time.

Concentrate on overwhelming reply IF they are used.
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Old 28 Sep 17, 07:55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowygerry View Post
Only way to prevent a capable nation state from obtaining nuclear weapons is to convince them they don't need nuclear weapons.

Developments of recent decades have done exactly the opposite, I fear there too it's just a matter of time.

Concentrate on overwhelming reply IF they are used.
The problem is that, unlike N.Korea, Iran is located in an oil-rich region.
Any antics on its part, any tests, incidents or sabre-rattling a la Fatboy Kim will have a far bigger economic impact.
In fact, once it gets nukes, Iran could spark such crises just to hike oil prices and get more revenue. Something that even Russia would like (thus maybe securing its veto on any tough UN sanctions on Iran).
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Old 28 Sep 17, 08:18
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I don't necessarily disagree - Iran with nukes would be more problematic than NK with nukes,

nevertheless you cannot prevent them from obtaining without a full blown and indefinite occupation.

The more empty threats you issue the stronger their desire to obtain a nuclear deterrent of their own.

See Israel, Pakistan, France, SA, India ...

Nuclear disarmament, among the major powers, like happened with chemical weapons, may have been an option, but that ship sailed the moment the first "small" nation state obtained its own.


Just look what happened to Ukraine the moment they handed over theirs to the Russians.

Nation states with nuclear weapons, as well as those under a "nuclear umbrella" play in a league of their own, and everybody knows by now.
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Old 28 Sep 17, 08:36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowygerry View Post
I don't necessarily disagree - Iran with nukes would be more problematic than NK with nukes,

nevertheless you cannot prevent them from obtaining without a full blown and indefinite occupation.
That's the thing, the article in the OP sees a war against N.Korea as the only option to solve that problem and strengthen non-proliferation (spreading the idea that nukes won't protect your regime so there's no point seeking to obtain them).

If a messy and costly war for the sake of non-proliferation were to be launched, then I'd say Iran would be a more logical target since it would actually derail its path to nukes and prevent that region from sliding toward the Korean Peninsula dynamic. I doubt the idea that a messy war with North Korea would prompt Iran to give up its plans. On the contrary, it would give it more time.
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Old 28 Sep 17, 08:57
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As stated - I agree.

The idea that the US (or any other party) can - by mere threats - prevent any other nation state (that is any rate capable to do so) from obtaining nukes is erroneous imho.

Mutual assured destruction (and in this case it isn't mutual, the US would no doubt survive a Iranian/NK first strike, Japan survived after all) works.
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  #11  
Old 28 Sep 17, 13:15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Poor Old Spike View Post
Kim has threatened to nuke the US homeland and Guam and he's test-flown a missile over Japan, yet amazingly Trump has done NOTHING except talk the talk!
Hey Don, prove to us that you're not a softy and walk the walk , no need for a ground war, simply surgically take out a few of Kims nuke missile sites and installations with conventional cruise and drone strikes to teach him a lesson, it's a "target-rich environment" out there and once you've drawn his nuclear teeth he'll be as harmless as a fluffy kitten..

Unless you eliminate the research facilities too, they will just start again, somewhere else.
And THAT is where Iran enters into the picture in a big way.

Okay, from that map, it looks as if about 50 nuclear warheads could finish the job. That isn't even the whole payload from one of our Boomers, so it is physically doable any time we want.

Oh, squeamish about using nukes? Well, now we are talking hundreds of not thousands of conventional warheads, and they don't give you much chance for getting those tunnels that are half a mile underground. Nothing really does, aside from detonating half a dozen nukes, in sequence, right on top of it.

How are the options looking now?
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Old 28 Sep 17, 17:40
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Unless you eliminate the research facilities too, they will just start again, somewhere else...
Leaving aside the research facilities for the moment, the prime targets are Kim's launch sites, and according to the map there are only two of them, so if Trump trashes them Kim can't launch nukes at anybody..

PS- another option would be to assassinate the madman Kim; sure somebody would replace him but hopefully he won't be as nutty.
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Old 28 Sep 17, 18:54
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Originally Posted by Poor Old Spike View Post
Leaving aside the research facilities for the moment, the prime targets are Kim's launch sites, and according to the map there are only two of them, so if Trump trashes them Kim can't launch nukes at anybody..
The map is deceptive. N.Korea's nuclear missiles are road-mobile, they could be launched from anywhere.
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Old 29 Sep 17, 07:26
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The map is deceptive. N.Korea's nuclear missiles are road-mobile, they could be launched from anywhere.
Yes I wish we knew more about how many types of nukes Kim's got, like how many are truck-launched and how many are silo-launched etc.
The Pentagon's satellites probably know exactly, but let's not forget that missiles are only one way of delivering nuke warheads.
For example Kim could load a warhead onto one of his innocent-looking fishing trawlers and deposit it on the seabed on a time fuse near any American coastal city..

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Old 29 Sep 17, 09:36
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I would think that an NK fishing boat off the US Pacific coast would stand out like a blind carpenter's thumb especially if the US is using radar satellites combined with Automatic Identification System (AIS) sensors . But they could use a submarine - especially if the crew didn't mind not coming back!
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