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Go Back   Armchair General and HistoryNet >> The Best Forums in History > Military/History Related Hobbies > Alternate Timelines

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Alternate Timelines The plausible "what if's" of military history.

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  #1  
Old 20 Sep 17, 20:50
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Did USA "blow - it" by not backing the "green revolution" in Iran?

Did we ?

Is this a failed manifestation of Obama~Clinton Foreign Policy, or a movement "doomed to fail" from the start ... ???

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Green_Movement

Did the "West" blow an opportunity to stabalize and defuse conflict thru-out the M.E. ???

Did we ("West") "blow it" on a more "secular" expression of the Dar Al-Islam ... ???

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  #2  
Old 20 Sep 17, 21:04
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Yeah we screwed the pooch on that one. We should've helped the 'Green Revolution".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Green_Movement
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Old 20 Sep 17, 21:46
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Yeah we screwed the pooch on that one. We should've helped the 'Green Revolution".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Green_Movement
Perhaps a big reason Hillary "lost it" ???
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Old 20 Sep 17, 21:51
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Perhaps a big reason Hillary "lost it" ???
Nah, not even on the radar. She lost because of her personality. Nasty and evil.
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Old 21 Sep 17, 00:09
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Yeah we screwed the pooch on that one. We should've helped the 'Green Revolution".
...
Agreed.
We might have been let down by our Intel (as always) but Obama never dealt with an Islamic Dictatorship that he didn't love... except the one that was hoarding gold reserves (Libya).

The Mullahs running the place had to bring Hezbollah and other crony terrorists in to slaughter their own people, even the Revolutionary Gestapo was starting to get squeamish.
Even a purely moral sort of support could have tipped the scales, and ended that hideous throw-back to the Dark Ages, and the people were certainly ready for it.

I don't know if the world would be a better place, but Iran certainly would be, if the Greens had won.
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Old 21 Sep 17, 01:24
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Originally Posted by The Exorcist View Post
Agreed.
We might have been let down by our Intel (as always) but Obama never dealt with an Islamic Dictatorship that he didn't love... except the one that was hoarding gold reserves (Libya).

The Mullahs running the place had to bring Hezbollah and other crony terrorists in to slaughter their own people, even the Revolutionary Gestapo was starting to get squeamish.
Even a purely moral sort of support could have tipped the scales, and ended that hideous throw-back to the Dark Ages, and the people were certainly ready for it.

I don't know if the world would be a better place, but Iran certainly would be, if the Greens had won.
Considering how Iran is one of those "loose canons" rolling about and destablizing the Region~World, can't see how any support to the "Greens" wouldn't have a better result than we have now ... ??? ... !!!

Clear case of Barry hasn't a clue ~ should never have been in the WH to begin with, and HRC just made a bad mess worse ....

Why can't the Loonie-Left~Liberals "get it" and not consistently botch Foreign situations in ways that are worse for them and we in the West???!!!
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Old 22 Sep 17, 15:06
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What happened to the Green Movement in Iran?
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opi...225981675.html

The Green Movement
http://iranprimer.usip.org/resource/green-movement

A devastating defeat for Iran's green revolution
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-results-riots
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Old 25 Sep 17, 02:41
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Originally Posted by G David Bock View Post
What happened to the Green Movement in Iran?
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opi...225981675.html

The Green Movement
http://iranprimer.usip.org/resource/green-movement

A devastating defeat for Iran's green revolution
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-results-riots
Its probably a question of money more than anything.

When looking at the current $2.4 trillion dollar financial failure of Bush Jnr's war against Iraq, even such costs as medical and disability benefits to servicemen alone are greater than the value of oil and similar imports received.

Perhaps, another military success would be a financial burden too far, even for the USA.
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Old 25 Sep 17, 11:44
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Originally Posted by Nick the Noodle View Post
Its probably a question of money more than anything.

When looking at the current $2.4 trillion dollar financial failure of Bush Jnr's war against Iraq, even such costs as medical and disability benefits to servicemen alone are greater than the value of oil and similar imports received.

Perhaps, another military success would be a financial burden too far, even for the USA.
"Lip service" and "moral support" wouldn't have cost that much money, but would have shown the USA supported secular "democracy" movements. Obama's silence and tacit support of the Iranian government helped greatly in letting them "get away with" suppressing this people's movement.

Considering half or more of the "insurgents" in Iraq were either Iranian "covert" fighters or getting aid from Iran, the USA leadership, both under Bush and Obama, failed in integrity, honest, and strategic vision.
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Old 25 Sep 17, 16:56
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Originally Posted by G David Bock View Post
"Lip service" and "moral support" wouldn't have cost that much money, but would have shown the USA supported secular "democracy" movements. Obama's silence and tacit support of the Iranian government helped greatly in letting them "get away with" suppressing this people's movement.

Considering half or more of the "insurgents" in Iraq were either Iranian "covert" fighters or getting aid from Iran, the USA leadership, both under Bush and Obama, failed in integrity, honest, and strategic vision.
You have to remember that if any Islamic party is supported by the US in any form, especially in the M.E. its days are numbered. Rightly or wrongly, the USA is simply seen as The Great Satan by these people. It is the reason why the US, like so many other 'Empires', will fail in Afghanistan.

The only cure is to raising living standards of the majority of people so that peace is preferable to conflict. Given that it is on record that Bush Jnr supported US 'Big Business' interests over local considerations, this action will not be forgotten by the current generation. What it would need is a 'hearts and minds' campaign, that includes favourable trade agreements with these Islamic countries, and I cannot foresee a US population voting for politicians who would support such a campaign.

Perhaps a 'sensible' option would be proto-Roman, ie state all the basic Islamic beliefs are the same as Christian and Jewish ones, and work with what all agree on, rather than concentrate on the differences. Unfortunately, I doubt any church, temple or mosque would find this acceptable.
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Old 29 Sep 17, 21:22
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I wonder what would have happened if the U.S hadn't backed the 1953 coup that brought the shaw to power.
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Old 13 Oct 17, 17:17
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I wonder what would have happened if the U.S hadn't backed the 1953 coup that brought the shaw to power.
Likely topic for another thread. The 1953 coup was reflective of "Cold War" policies of the time, EXCERPT:
...
"While Mosaddegh dealt with political challenge, he faced another that most Iranians considered far more urgent. The British blockade of Iranian seaports meant that Iran was left without access to markets where it could sell its oil. The embargo had the effect of causing Iran to spiral into bankruptcy. Tens of thousands had lost their jobs at the Abadan refinery, and although most understood and passionately supported the idea of nationalisation, they naturally hoped that Mosaddegh would find a way to put them back to work. The only way he could do that was to sell oil."[58]

To make matters worse, the Communist Tudeh Party, which supported the Soviet Union and had attempted to kill the Shah only four years earlier, began to infiltrate the military[59] and send mobs to "support Mossadegh" (but in reality to marginalize all non-Communist opponents). Earlier, the Tudeh had denounced Mossadegh, but by 1953 they changed tack and decided to "support" him.[60] The Tudeh violently attacked opponents under the guise of helping the prime minister (the cousin of the future queen of Iran, Farah Pahlavi, was stabbed at the age of 13 in his school by Tudeh activists),[11] and unwittingly helped cause Mossadegh's reputation to decline, despite the fact that he never officially endorsed them.[12] However, by 1953 he and the Tudeh had formed an unofficial alliance of convenience with each other; the Tudeh were the "foot soldiers" for his government, effectively replacing the Fadaiyan in that role, all the while secretly hoping that Mossadegh would institute communism.[10][12] Pro-Shah mobs also carried out attacks on Mossadegh opponents, and there may have been some CIA coordination.[10]

Worried about Britain's other interests in Iran, and (thanks to the Tudeh party)[12] believing that Iran's nationalism was really a Soviet-backed plot, Britain persuaded US Secretary of State John Foster Dulles that Iran was falling to the Soviets—effectively exploiting the American Cold War mindset. Since President Harry S. Truman was busy fighting a war in Korea, he did not agree to overthrow the government of Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh. However, in 1953, when Dwight D. Eisenhower became president, the UK convinced the U.S. to undertake a joint coup d'état
...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1953_I..._d%27%C3%A9tat
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Old 13 Oct 17, 17:49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nick the Noodle View Post
You have to remember that if any Islamic party is supported by the US in any form, especially in the M.E. its days are numbered. Rightly or wrongly, the USA is simply seen as The Great Satan by these people. It is the reason why the US, like so many other 'Empires', will fail in Afghanistan.
You are painting with a rather broad brush here, assuming "these people" (majority Muslim of various flavors) are monolithic in thought and reaction to the USA/West. By not backing the Green Movement, the USA defacto supported the existing regime in Iran, underscored by Obama's later "Deal" lifting sanctions and giving the Iranian government some slack on the nuclear arms issue. Not all peoples of the M.E. or Iran share the "Great Satan" view of the USA and we are better served supporting more secular focused movements/parties than the Fundimentalist Islam/Jihad sorts.

As for Afghanistan, there are a variety of issues making our efforts there a sort of "pushing chains uphill", most having to do with logisitcs of the region we are operating thru and the strong hold of Fumdament Islam in the Pushtan, and major portions of Pakistan.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nick the Noodle View Post
The only cure is to raising living standards of the majority of people so that peace is preferable to conflict. Given that it is on record that Bush Jnr supported US 'Big Business' interests over local considerations, this action will not be forgotten by the current generation. What it would need is a 'hearts and minds' campaign, that includes favourable trade agreements with these Islamic countries, and I cannot foresee a US population voting for politicians who would support such a campaign.
Decades of petro-dollars to the reach could have raised the lving standards of many, but such fund$ have gone to provide lavish lifestyles for their local rulers, increase their armaments and support "terrorism"/Jihad along with an anti-Israel agenda. Many of thsoe whom we are fighting are do such not for matertial reasons (or the classic socialist/marxist justification you present) but because of religious ideology, which has been examined in depth in this thread;
Islam - Jihad - GWOT

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Originally Posted by Nick the Noodle View Post
Perhaps a 'sensible' option would be proto-Roman, ie state all the basic Islamic beliefs are the same as Christian and Jewish ones, and work with what all agree on, rather than concentrate on the differences. Unfortunately, I doubt any church, temple or mosque would find this acceptable.
The differences are significant. Mohammad commanded his followers to fight until the whole planet is converted to Islam and the Dogma of Islam provides the highest levels in Paradise(Heaven) and greatest rewards to those whom engage in Jihad. There are spiritual and ideological reasons behind most of the conflict(s) in the M.E. and these are best defused by supporting more secular focused political movements along with finding a way to invalidate the "forever war" agenda of Fundamentalist Islam/Jihad.
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