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Go Back   Armchair General and HistoryNet >> The Best Forums in History > Military/History Related Hobbies > Alternate Timelines

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Alternate Timelines The plausible "what if's" of military history.

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  #31  
Old 13 Sep 17, 14:22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marmat View Post
...


24 October, 1938, conversation between Lipski and Ribbentrop, the latter recorded, "Poland would accede to the Anti-Comintern Pact",
- "Documents on German Foreign Policy 1918-1945", series D, V, No. 81.



1 February, 1939, conversation between Beck and Ribbentrop, the latter recorded Beck, "made no secret of the fact that Poland had aspirations directed towards the Soviet Ukraine",
- "Documents on German Foreign Policy 1918-1945", series D, V, No. 126.

courtesy of AJP Taylor.
Yes to secure the former Polish part quite consistent with Poland's ultra nationalist policy to return to Poland's ancient boundaries but unlike the Germans they were not seeking Lebensraum beyond their ancient borders
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  #32  
Old 13 Sep 17, 14:25
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WHAT!?!

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Originally Posted by MarkV View Post
Yes to secure the former Polish part quite consistent with Poland's ultra nationalist policy to return to Poland's ancient boundaries but unlike the Germans they were not seeking Lebensraum beyond their ancient borders

OK
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  #33  
Old 13 Sep 17, 14:27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nastle View Post
You making 4 big assumptions

1 red army will just fold
2 polish German alliance will work flawlessly
3 vulnerability of German economy to foreign sanctions
4 France will sit by idly and not try to attack Germany while the bulk of her army is deployed in the East


British don't need to intervene militarily to determine the outcome of this war I never suggested that
Still evading the question. You said

Quote:
You really think Britain is just going to allow a superpower to grow on the continent with this polish-german Alliance ?
and when asked how Britain woulds stop it you have failed to arrive with any even half convincing answer
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  #34  
Old 13 Sep 17, 15:02
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Originally Posted by MarkV View Post
Still evading the question. You said



and when asked how Britain woulds stop it you have failed to arrive with any even half convincing answer
I did but you are being dismissive
Trade wars and sanctions
Germans will gain no meaningful economic advantage from war in central Europe esp if it's devastated by retreating red army
Just as in WW1 they will be on their knees in a couple of yrs
Plus what's stopping poles from stabbing germans in the back ?
this fanciful notion of a pan European crusade against bolshevism should be in extreme alternate history
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  #35  
Old 14 Sep 17, 08:26
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Originally Posted by nastle View Post
I did but you are being dismissive
Trade wars and sanctions
The involves the UK and CW nations, but what about the US, South America and 3rd party nations trading for Germany? Spain, Italy, Turkey, Sweden, etc. will all willingly aid German/Polish/Romanian/Hungarian trade as intermediaries for profit.

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Germans will gain no meaningful economic advantage from war in central Europe esp if it's devastated by retreating red army
Obviously not immediately, but the long term situation looks good in this ATL. Without Western military aid and with a full pack of Axis allies in the anti-cominterm the German chances of a favorable negotiated peace look good.

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Just as in WW1 they will be on their knees in a couple of yrs
doubtful, unless the US/UK decide to openly blockade Germany and aid the SU.

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Plus what's stopping poles from stabbing germans in the back ?
this fanciful notion of a pan European crusade against bolshevism should be in extreme alternate history
The location of Polish armies at the front make it more likely that the Germans could do the stabbing, considering the relative size of the armies involved and extent of reserve strength. Besides, if the Poles try to double cross the Germans, they will end up being over run by the Soviets which makes that idea a non-starter.
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  #36  
Old 14 Sep 17, 08:47
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Javaman View Post
(...)
Obviously not immediately, but the long term situation looks good in this ATL. Without Western military aid and with a full pack of Axis allies in the anti-cominterm the German chances of a favorable negotiated peace look good.
Poland joining the German alliance would require them to leave the UK/French alliance,

so at best you end up with Poland/Germany on one side, vs. UK/France/Russia/various smaller allies, and ultimately the US on the other.

No reason for Poland to choose such a course of action, in any alternative timeline imho.
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  #37  
Old 14 Sep 17, 09:37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowygerry View Post
Poland joining the German alliance would require them to leave the UK/French alliance,
There was no alliance, Britain and France issued a guarantee of support if Poland were invaded. Please point to evidence of a Western military alliance with Poland or Poland being invaded in TA's OP.

Quote:
so at best you end up with Poland/Germany on one side, vs. UK/France/Russia/various smaller allies, and ultimately the US on the other.
No idea where you can surmise that from this ATL and the actual political attitudes of the UK/France/US in 1939/40 towards war in general, Germany and the USSR. I highly doubt the French were willing to do much of anything for the USSR, same goes for the US to a lesser extent. The UK would take an interest simply based on the unfavorable scenario that Germany is victorious.
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  #38  
Old 14 Sep 17, 09:57
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Originally Posted by Javaman View Post
There was no alliance, Britain and France issued a guarantee of support if Poland were invaded. Please point to evidence of a Western military alliance with Poland or Poland being invaded in TA's OP.
There's was the almost certain expectation from Germany to invade something and trigger a war at one point though.

It was narrowly avoided at the reoccupation of te Rhineland, the various Anschluss, and then the invasion of Poland eventually proved the point of no return.

In this ATL I assume all of the above still occurs and the Western Allies are suitably worried around 1939 ?

In such a scenario I expect Churchill's "If Hitler Invades Hell .." to apply,

or more applicable, "Even if Hitler allied with baby Jesus.."


Quote:
No idea where you can surmise that from this ATL and the actual political attitudes of the UK/France/US in 1939/40 towards war in general, Germany and the USSR. I highly doubt the French were willing to do much of anything for the USSR, same goes for the US to a lesser extent. The UK would take an interest simply based on the unfavorable scenario that Germany is victorious.
See above - not for the USSR, against Germany, in the end they did not declare war for the benefit of Poland (They did not lift a finger after all) but in the certain knowledge Germany had to be kept from becoming the dominant force in Europe.

In this context - a German alliance with Poland (if we assume that to mean automatic war with Russia.. - don't underestimate Stalin.) would have been worse.
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Last edited by Snowygerry; 14 Sep 17 at 10:02..
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  #39  
Old 14 Sep 17, 10:19
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Such a thing would have required a much more competent German foreign policy and a much less genocidal government. Given the Nazis are in power this whole thing was thus impossible.

However, if someone else was in charge of Germany with different goals than the extermination of the slavs and jews then things are possible.

Germany would have to:
1) build an anti comunist alliance with Poland, Finland, Romania, Hungary and the Baltic states
2) lobby the ruling classes of France and England to support #1
3) honour its debts to foriegn powers (like the US)
4) strengthen the economy at the expense of re-armament

Germany would have had to market itself as the bulwark against the spread of communism to ensure that the Western democracies don't actively oppose them. Germany would also have had to be a liberator not a conqueror.

However this is pretty much alien space bats territory as long as the Nazis were in charge.
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  #40  
Old 14 Sep 17, 10:45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowygerry View Post
See above - not for the USSR, against Germany, in the end they did not declare war for the benefit of Poland (They did not lift a finger after all) but in the certain knowledge Germany had to be kept from becoming the dominant force in Europe.

In this context - a German alliance with Poland (if we assume that to mean automatic war with Russia.. - don't underestimate Stalin.) would have been worse.
Point taken, based on the OTL's invasion of Poland and the West's reaction, it would seem that the Axis/Cominterm would have one campaign season before the Western Front became a threat.
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