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Go Back   Armchair General and HistoryNet >> The Best Forums in History > Current Events > Russia, Central Asia, and The Caucasus

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Russia, Central Asia, and The Caucasus Post-Soviet Russia and some neglected smaller neighbors.

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  #1  
Old 21 Aug 17, 05:44
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Post War with Russia almost inevitable

One of the few sane voices alas hawks prevail


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  #2  
Old 21 Aug 17, 05:56
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Seems very US centric.

America this, America that, seems to me "America" doesn't know its head from it's arse these days, they're hardly fit for a cross continental invasion.
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Old 31 Aug 17, 10:06
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I would agree that marching on Moscow is madness. But American strategy is to encircle Russia and to choke it until it surrenders or breaks up. The current arms race is to achieve nuclear supremacy so Russia, and China, have no choice but to submit as they would lose their nuclear deterrence.


This is a good place to post these quotes wich make clear what are the US aims regarding Russia and why those in the Kremlin are scared, and why Russia policy is to win time.
Any self respecting Russian leader would have declared war on the US by now and destroyed all American forces in their borders, liberating Ukraine and putting the Baltics in their proper place. But for now Russian leadership must clench their teeth and make the best out of a bad situation while rearmament continues. By 2020 there should be a balance, provided the US doesn't push forward the goal posts with another buildup.



From Chervonets blog

J. Soros , soon after the collapse of the USSR in 1992, openly declared: "Now we have finally reached the tidbit, to Russia. At stake is the main kush - the whole state ... ".

Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger: "I would prefer chaos and civil war in Russia to the trend of its reunification into a single, strong, centralized state" (Kissinger G. Diplomacy, M., 1997).

General Colin Powell, US Secretary of State under President George W. Bush: "Russia must forget that it has any interests in the republics of the former USSR ... We will not allow Russia to interfere in the affairs of the former USSR, for the restoration of the USSR is not included in the strategic objectives of the government and the US state "(2001).

In 1993, the magazine Foreign Affairs published a map illustrating the US geopolitical plans. Most of the European territory of the former USSR-the Baltic countries, Ukraine, Byelorussia, Moldova and the entire Caucasus-was designated as a zone under American control (see Foreign Affairs N 3, 1993).




Zbigniew Brzezinski: "Russia, called the Soviet Union, challenged the US. She was defeated. Now it is not necessary to nurture illusions about Russia's great power. It is necessary to discourage the desire for such a way of thinking. Russia will be fragmented and under guardianship. "

Rejecting the most timid mention of the current Russian authorities about the rights of the Russian population in the "near abroad" as outrageous "imperial ambitions," Brzezinski at the same time considers the global imperial ambitions of the United States natural. For "American hegemony," he declares "decisive" dominance over the supercontinent Eurasia - this is "the main geopolitical prize for America." And since Russia dominates in Eurasia, it is necessary to dismember it, especially since it is "politically neutralized and historically despised". Brzezinski calls Russia a "black hole" and cynically declares that "the loss of territories is not the main problem for Russia."

Barack Obama: "Last year, when we and our allies labored hard to impose sanctions, some assumed that Mr. Putin's aggression was an example of a mastery of strategy and strength. Well, today America is strong and united with our allies, while Russia is isolated, and its economy is torn in tatters "(01/21/2015.).

American Institute of Carnegie, Adam Stalberg: "... inertia can make Russia particularly vulnerable to external shocks - so much so that even relatively small problems caused, for example, by a natural disaster, can lead to a national crisis ...

The disintegration of state structures will also lead to an increase in the international risk associated with the possibility of an uncontrolled spread of weapons of mass destruction and infectious diseases, and is still able to turn Russia into an arena of international competition of neighboring states and the world's most influential powers, which in turn will exacerbate factors, Contributing to the disintegration of Russia ".
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  #4  
Old 31 Aug 17, 11:24
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"But Western intrusion into traditional Russian spheres of influence, areas under the sway of Moscow for three centuries or more, represents a highly provocative and destabilizing policy. "

"It’s difficult to envision where this could lead, short of actual hostilities. Russia’s fundamental national interests, the ones Trump was prepared to accept, will almost certainly render such hostilities inevitable."

Russia's national interests... Does this include dominance and control over neighboring nations against the will of the inhabitants?
The US and Europe doesn't need to do this to persuade countries formerly occupied by the Soviets that its probably a good idea to join NATO in order to maintain their sovereignty.

If the leadership of a reduced Russia wants to engage in an arms race with the US and NATO, that's their problem. Its a fight they can't possibly win, all they can do is continue to disturb the peace with overt threats and calculated demonstrations of force. All Russia has is nuclear détente, but using that as a shield for their efforts to rebuild a sphere of influence will end in large US spending in technology that ultimately yields a viable missile defense. Then what?
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  #5  
Old 31 Aug 17, 11:43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by von Junzt View Post
I would agree that marching on Moscow is madness. But American strategy is to encircle Russia and to choke it until it surrenders or breaks up. The current arms race is to achieve nuclear supremacy so Russia, and China, have no choice but to submit as they would lose their nuclear deterrence.


This is a good place to post these quotes wich make clear what are the US aims regarding Russia and why those in the Kremlin are scared, and why Russia policy is to win time.
Any self respecting Russian leader would have declared war on the US by now and destroyed all American forces in their borders, liberating Ukraine and putting the Baltics in their proper place. But for now Russian leadership must clench their teeth and make the best out of a bad situation while rearmament continues. By 2020 there should be a balance, provided the US doesn't push forward the goal posts with another buildup.



From Chervonets blog

J. Soros , soon after the collapse of the USSR in 1992, openly declared: "Now we have finally reached the tidbit, to Russia. At stake is the main kush - the whole state ... ".

Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger: "I would prefer chaos and civil war in Russia to the trend of its reunification into a single, strong, centralized state" (Kissinger G. Diplomacy, M., 1997).

General Colin Powell, US Secretary of State under President George W. Bush: "Russia must forget that it has any interests in the republics of the former USSR ... We will not allow Russia to interfere in the affairs of the former USSR, for the restoration of the USSR is not included in the strategic objectives of the government and the US state "(2001).

In 1993, the magazine Foreign Affairs published a map illustrating the US geopolitical plans. Most of the European territory of the former USSR-the Baltic countries, Ukraine, Byelorussia, Moldova and the entire Caucasus-was designated as a zone under American control (see Foreign Affairs N 3, 1993).




Zbigniew Brzezinski: "Russia, called the Soviet Union, challenged the US. She was defeated. Now it is not necessary to nurture illusions about Russia's great power. It is necessary to discourage the desire for such a way of thinking. Russia will be fragmented and under guardianship. "

Rejecting the most timid mention of the current Russian authorities about the rights of the Russian population in the "near abroad" as outrageous "imperial ambitions," Brzezinski at the same time considers the global imperial ambitions of the United States natural. For "American hegemony," he declares "decisive" dominance over the supercontinent Eurasia - this is "the main geopolitical prize for America." And since Russia dominates in Eurasia, it is necessary to dismember it, especially since it is "politically neutralized and historically despised". Brzezinski calls Russia a "black hole" and cynically declares that "the loss of territories is not the main problem for Russia."

Barack Obama: "Last year, when we and our allies labored hard to impose sanctions, some assumed that Mr. Putin's aggression was an example of a mastery of strategy and strength. Well, today America is strong and united with our allies, while Russia is isolated, and its economy is torn in tatters "(01/21/2015.).

American Institute of Carnegie, Adam Stalberg: "... inertia can make Russia particularly vulnerable to external shocks - so much so that even relatively small problems caused, for example, by a natural disaster, can lead to a national crisis ...

The disintegration of state structures will also lead to an increase in the international risk associated with the possibility of an uncontrolled spread of weapons of mass destruction and infectious diseases, and is still able to turn Russia into an arena of international competition of neighboring states and the world's most influential powers, which in turn will exacerbate factors, Contributing to the disintegration of Russia ".

Actually you need to read and hear more on Brezenski comments. Your taking him out of context. But that up to you.
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  #6  
Old 31 Aug 17, 14:06
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Javaman View Post
Does this include dominance and control over neighboring nations against the will of the inhabitants?
Rather prevention of Western dominance over neighboring nations.
Control by force was more an American form of operation in recent years (Afghanistan/Iraq/attempted invasion to Syria). Such things don't work well and cost too much as experience demonstrated.
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Old 31 Aug 17, 14:08
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Meh, I see no compelling reason to attack Russia. Anyone who does is insane and should be treated as such...
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Old 31 Aug 17, 14:26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Artyom_A View Post
attempted invasion to Syria
That one's made up.
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Old 31 Aug 17, 14:29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Artyom_A View Post
Rather prevention of Western dominance over neighboring nations.
Control by force was more an American form of operation in recent years (Afghanistan/Iraq/attempted invasion to Syria). Such things don't work well and cost too much as experience demonstrated.
The relevant American form of operation is demonstrative of the willing applicants of NATO that were formerly occupied by the USSR and members of the Warsaw Pact is in the context of the thread. Its economic and soft power at work, why Russia feels militarily threatened by that is their agenda but no real military threat exists.

As for the unrelated military adventures mentioned; Afghanistan was a very much needed cleaning out an infestation of vermin while Iraq was clearly a mistake made by the American Republican party power elite. The US should have helped Afghanistan in 1989, that administration failed. The same administration should have pushed harder for Iraqi regime change in 1991, but that's all hindsight.
Syria? Why is the US even there? Why are the Russians there? The proximity of Russian and US advisors to each others air strikes is far too close. Whatever is going on there is not worth it IMHO.
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Old 31 Aug 17, 14:50
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Johan Banér View Post
That one's made up.
Nope, it's a common knowledge that US administration seriously considered it. They didn't have guts though - fortunately for American tax-payers.

Last edited by Artyom_A; 31 Aug 17 at 15:06..
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Old 31 Aug 17, 15:03
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Javaman View Post
As for the unrelated military adventures mentioned
Apparently less related then events that happened 70-50 years ago Just take it as a fact: in recent 20 years it was the US who practiced military occupations of other countries and setting up of pro-American regimes by force. Not Russia. So there is no basis of evidences to claim that it's a typical Russian policy, as you implied. And another things is that such policy turned out to by very costly and ineffective to believe that it would be practiced again.
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Old 31 Aug 17, 15:25
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Originally Posted by Javaman View Post
The relevant American form of operation is demonstrative of the willing applicants of NATO that were formerly occupied by the USSR
You are repeating typical neocon propaganda for Oklahoma rednecks again. First, Ukraine and Georgia (and we are talking about Russia's zone of interest, it's not about Hungary of East Germany) were not "occupied by the USSR". They were integral and internationally recognized parts of the USSR. As for the willingness it was not so simple:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/167927/cr...to-threat.aspx
But since US bought Ukrainian leadership with all their guts public opinion simply didn't matter.
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Old 31 Aug 17, 15:52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Artyom_A View Post
You are repeating typical neocon propaganda for Oklahoma rednecks again. First, Ukraine and Georgia (and we are talking about Russia's zone of interest, it's not about Hungary of East Germany) were not "occupied by the USSR". They were integral and internationally recognized parts of the USSR. As for the willingness it was not so simple:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/167927/cr...to-threat.aspx
But since US bought Ukrainian leadership with all their guts public opinion simply didn't matter.
I like Russia, I like Russians. That being said...

Poland, Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Albania and Hungary were all under the Soviet heel against their national will and all are now members of NATO to deter that specific situation from ever happening again.
Whatever Russia's zone of interest (outside their borders) is, it can co-exist with the zones of interest of its sovereign and independent neighbors. Russia's zone of interest is Machiavellian, not a legal status and can only be enforced with power politics, economic influence or military intimidation.
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Old 31 Aug 17, 16:06
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Artyom_A View Post
Apparently less related then events that happened 70-50 years ago Just take it as a fact: in recent 20 years it was the US who practiced military occupations of other countries and setting up of pro-American regimes by force. Not Russia. So there is no basis of evidences to claim that it's a typical Russian policy, as you implied. And another things is that such policy turned out to by very costly and ineffective to believe that it would be practiced again.
In the last 20 years Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, and Slovakia all willingly joined NATO.
You misrepresent the US/coalition effort in Afghanistan, the US was attacked by terrorists based there, remember that small detail? The nation building that has followed is an absolute waste of time as I saw first hand in 2008. I did confirm that the country was intact when the Soviets left in 1988-89, it was later destroyed by the Afghans themselves. It was the fault of the US that this happened.

Iraq, your explanation is correct.

Quote:
So there is no basis of evidences to claim that it's a typical Russian policy, as you implied
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexa...ian_Federation
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia...2%80%93present)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia...2%80%93present)

Strong evidence exists...
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Old 01 Sep 17, 03:11
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Poland, Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Albania and Hungary were all under the Soviet heel against their national will
That's a certain oversimplification. Cold war propaganda for Oklahoma rednecks, I would say. In any case were are talking not about them as explained above.
Quote:
You misrepresent the US/coalition effort in Afghanistan, the US was attacked by terrorists based there, remember that small detail?
I wasn't discussing their motives, if were good, bad, right wrong etc. I was talking about the result. The result is a costly and ineffective campaign.
Then again some peace of redneck propaganda:
Started by the Georgian government and how does it support the notion of "dominance and control over neighboring nations against the will of the inhabitants"? Rather the other way around: Georgia tried to establish control over her breakaway provinces against the will of their inhabitants by force but got punched by Russian troops in the process.
The will of inhabitants of Crimean was definitely pro-Russian so again how does it support the notion of "dominance and control over neighboring nations against the will of the inhabitants"?
The links are empty. Again the situation was that the Ukrainian government tried to establish control over separatist region by military force but got punched by separatist forces armed and supported by Russia in the process. How does it support the notion of "dominance and control over neighboring nations against the will of the inhabitants"?
So two of three examples were support of separatist aspirations of inhabitants (not different from from USA did with Kosovo in Yugoslavia or with Kurds in Syria and Iraq) and the third is Russian inhabitants enthusiastically joining Russia. In neither case Russia actually established control over neighboring nation by force against the will of inhabitants.

Last edited by Artyom_A; 01 Sep 17 at 04:33..
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