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  #31  
Old 04 Sep 17, 11:51
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Quote:
Originally Posted by johns624 View Post
What's sad and ironic is that the two branches of the British military who have done the most work in the last 30 years (the RN and Army) seem to always get the short end of the financial stick. Yet, the RAF always seems to get what they want.
Not quite. The RN is modernizing their submarine fleet. The Vanguard class subs are supposed to be replaced in 10 years but likely won't happen until 2030.




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The Royal Navy currently operates maintains a small fleet of four Vanguard Class nuclear powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBN) carrying the Trident II D5 intercontinental ballistic missiles. the submarines are steam powered, their nuclear reactors converting water into steam to drive the engines and generate electricity.

These submarines maintain constant patrol cycle operating as part of the UK strategic nuclear deterrent force. Of the four subs, two are on patrol at all time, one undergoing short maintenance and the fourth undergoing deep maintenance that includes refueling or replacement of the reactor, and other deep maintenance work. This cycle has been unbroken since 1969, totaling more than 300 patrols and more than 43 years.

The submarine force is also being modernized. The Royal Navy maintains a fleet of ten nuclear-powered submarines, currently comprised of three types. The four Vanguard Class Strategic Ballistic Missile Submarines are carrying the Trident II D5 intercontinental ballistic missiles. These submarines are set for replacement in ten years, by the Dreadnought class, currently in preliminary design. About half of the Ł3.3 billion budget cleared Parliament for the program has been awarded.

The funding will enable BAE Systems to develop the design of the submarine, including the layout of equipment and systems, and to develop manufacturing processes, including the production of early prototypes. The new submarine will replace the Vanguard class subs in the 2030s. The main sub contractors include Babcock and Rolls Royce. Hundreds of potential suppliers, including many small and medium enterprises, throughout Britain will also take part in this program.

http://defense-update.com/20170817_m...ine-fleet.html
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  #32  
Old 04 Sep 17, 19:17
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They need destroyers and frigates more than they need ballistic missile subs. If you have enough of a conventional deterrent, you don't have to use your nuclear one.
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  #33  
Old 04 Sep 17, 19:49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by johns624 View Post
They need destroyers and frigates more than they need ballistic missile subs. If you have enough of a conventional deterrent, you don't have to use your nuclear one.
Tell that to the North Koreans.
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  #34  
Old 05 Sep 17, 10:17
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The Royal Navy has 40 ships.
The Chinese have 496 ships.

I don't think anyone in China is losing sleep worrying about the Royal Navy.
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  #35  
Old 06 Sep 17, 21:57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by E.D. Morel View Post
The Royal Navy has 40 ships.
The Chinese have 496 ships.

I don't think anyone in China is losing sleep worrying about the Royal Navy.
Those Chinese ships could turn out to be just as effective as those hordes of Soviet tanks against American and British armor in the Iraqi desert.
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  #36  
Old 07 Sep 17, 03:39
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Originally Posted by BELGRAVE View Post
Tell that to the North Koreans.
But it's true (and you're reading that situation wrong). If your weapon of last resort is relatively you only weapon of resort, you'r either looking at the triggering the nuclear option for everything, or nothing — which means the nuclear option is likely no option at all, and useless.

It's of surprisingly little actual use like that. Since you can't see off a conventional attack without them, odds are good you won't use them at all since that would invite nuclear retaliation anyway, and so you can't defend against a conventional attack. Whether you end up actually using them, you've lost the war as soon as an adversary decides they're for show and puts it to the test. And odds are very good they are for show, since even "crazy" dictators tend to have enough self-preservation to not actually want to invite national suicide. All nukes are good for without conventional deterrence is as a kind of vindictive last strike against an adversary when you've already lost the conventional war you couldn't fight. But then you've already lost and even the nukes won't change that, except tick off the victor no end.To get actual use from nukes, you need to first go whole hog for conventional deterrence.

The North Koreans have worked this out. They already HAVE conventional deterrence. They might have aging materiel, but they have so much of the conventional stuff no one is going to try to poke them in earnest, not even the US. So now the logical next step in deterrence is nuclear.

The only barmy thing about the North Korean priorities is the willingness of the leadership to have its people eat grass as long as it takes of get both the nukes and delivery systems in place, while maintaining humungous conventional forces as well, never mind the costs.
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  #37  
Old 07 Sep 17, 04:45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Johan Banér View Post
But it's true (and you're reading that situation wrong). If your weapon of last resort is relatively you only weapon of resort, you'r either looking at the triggering the nuclear option for everything, or nothing — which means the nuclear option is likely no option at all, and useless.

It's of surprisingly little actual use like that. Since you can't see off a conventional attack without them, odds are good you won't use them at all since that would invite nuclear retaliation anyway, and so you can't defend against a conventional attack. Whether you end up actually using them, you've lost the war as soon as an adversary decides they're for show and puts it to the test. And odds are very good they are for show, since even "crazy" dictators tend to have enough self-preservation to not actually want to invite national suicide. All nukes are good for without conventional deterrence is as a kind of vindictive last strike against an adversary when you've already lost the conventional war you couldn't fight. But then you've already lost and even the nukes won't change that, except tick off the victor no end.To get actual use from nukes, you need to first go whole hog for conventional deterrence.

The North Koreans have worked this out. They already HAVE conventional deterrence. They might have aging materiel, but they have so much of the conventional stuff no one is going to try to poke them in earnest, not even the US. So now the logical next step in deterrence is nuclear.

The only barmy thing about the North Korean priorities is the willingness of the leadership to have its people eat grass as long as it takes of get both the nukes and delivery systems in place, while maintaining humungous conventional forces as well, never mind the costs.
My posting was done with tonque firmly in cheek.
My problem with that man with the appalling haircut is that he has never articulated exactly what he wants:- to my knowledge anyway. Obviously his first priority is to remain in power, no matter what, and he wants to increase his international street cred by flourishing his strategic wherewithall.
But why ? Does he want to absorb South Korea simply by threats ?
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  #38  
Old 07 Sep 17, 05:12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Johan Banér View Post
The North Koreans have worked this out. They already HAVE conventional deterrence. They might have aging materiel, but they have so much of the conventional stuff no one is going to try to poke them in earnest, not even the US. So now the logical next step in deterrence is nuclear.
Eh? How is it logical to up the ante to nuclear when, as you've admitted, the Norks already have enough conventional stuff?
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  #39  
Old 07 Sep 17, 06:33
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Originally Posted by Gooner View Post
Eh? How is it logical to up the ante to nuclear when, as you've admitted, the Norks already have enough conventional stuff?
Insurance, it's what nukes do. And it's the logical next step, when you have conventional deterrence, yet still don feel sufficiently secure. It is a state operating in a state of institutionalized paranoia, on behalf of the ruling Kim-dynasty, after all.

Also look at the Israelis for this one fx.
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  #40  
Old 07 Sep 17, 07:12
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Originally Posted by Johan Banér View Post
Insurance, it's what nukes do. And it's the logical next step, when you have conventional deterrence, yet still don feel sufficiently secure. It is a state operating in a state of institutionalized paranoia, on behalf of the ruling Kim-dynasty, after all.
Oh, you mean logical for the paranoid. Which is illogical to the sane.
After all no-one was threatening the Norks - they are the ones doing the threatening.

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Also look at the Israelis for this one fx.
You think Israel is paranoid about enemies wanting to attack it?
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  #41  
Old 07 Sep 17, 07:43
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Originally Posted by Half Pint John View Post
The RN is no long the great navy it once was. Do you think a couple of RN ships today are really going to impress the PRC? Especaliy if they have no aircraft on them?
Britain is a nuclear power, so maybe our sub-launched nuke missiles will impress our oriental friends if it ever comes to it..
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  #42  
Old 07 Sep 17, 07:49
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Britain is a nuclear power, so maybe our sub-launched nuke missiles will impress our oriental friends if it ever comes to it..
Read post #36 by Johan Baner.
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  #43  
Old 07 Sep 17, 08:05
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Originally Posted by Gooner View Post
Oh, you mean logical for the paranoid. Which is illogical to the sane.
After all no-one was threatening the Norks - they are the ones doing the threatening.
Yes, they're paranoid. It's a big part of the basis of Nork society. It has rational uses as such.
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Originally Posted by Gooner View Post
You think Israel is paranoid about enemies wanting to attack it?
You think the Israelis would be irrational/paranoid for thinking that? In either/any case it doesn't actually matter for the Nork situation. The Israeli nukes are INSURANCE. If, by some bizzarre fluke/miracle, whatever Mid Eastern adversary would get the drop on the conventional power of the IDF, and overrun Israel, the nukes are there as last-ditch deterrence — withdraw, or else kiss your capital(s) goodbye...
(I know you despise me no end, and assume implicitly anything and everything posted by me will be rubbish, but you might still want to check that, since it makes you silly like this.)

That's what the Norks also want. And they can also look at Israel, same as everyone else. These ideas are there in the Indian-Pakistani stand-off too. (Having looked into the Swedish Cold War nuclear weapons program, I can tell you these are not somehow new or weird ideas, they were spelled out in some detail already decades ago. There have been rather more "threshold states" than have actually gone nuclear.)
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  #44  
Old 07 Sep 17, 08:09
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Quote:
Originally Posted by johns624 View Post
Read post #36 by Johan Baner.
Yes, any countries nuclear fireworks might well never be used, but an enemy can never be absolutely sure that they won't be used, therein lies the deterrence factor because it maintains the uncertainty and keeps the enemy guessing..
How about it grasshopper?-

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  #45  
Old 07 Sep 17, 09:28
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Originally Posted by Johan Banér View Post

You think the Israelis would be irrational/paranoid for thinking that? In either/any case it doesn't actually matter for the Nork situation. The Israeli nukes are INSURANCE. If, by some bizzarre fluke/miracle, whatever Mid Eastern adversary would get the drop on the conventional power of the IDF, and overrun Israel, the nukes are there as last-ditch deterrence — withdraw, or else kiss your capital(s) goodbye...
The situations are not comparable. North Korea was under no threat before they started developing nukes. Now they are.
Before North Korea could rely on the PRC as a last ditch deterrence. Now they might not.
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