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Go Back   Armchair General and HistoryNet >> The Best Forums in History > Military/History Related Hobbies > Alternate Timelines

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Alternate Timelines The plausible "what if's" of military history.

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  #31  
Old 25 Jun 17, 18:42
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I can't make a comparison to the Afghanistan teenage wasteland, a different time and space.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Moulin View Post
if huge Russia and huge America couldn't win against little Afghanistan and little Nam, how can you expect smaller Germany to win against much larger Russia?
can anyone please explain a reasonable scenario where Germany would would win?
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  #32  
Old 26 Jun 17, 01:04
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bo Archer View Post
The information that convince me of the chance existing that the Soviet Union could have won it alone is the number of German divisions on the Eastern Front compared to the number on the Western Front. I failed to understand how all the German divisions on the Western Front could have made much difference in the ultimate outcome be it a Russia victory or a forced settlement upon the defeated Germany upon nearing destruction. There is the factor of upon the liberation of Poland and Rumania of those thousands who flocked to Russian and allies enrollment into military ranks to fight the Germans. Endless numbers of angry people.
on the other side of the argument, as observed by Adolf Galland the problem wasn't just would Russia drafeat Germany by itself, as the war went on even with the intense allied bombing campaign targeting munitions and aircraft factory's Nazi product of aircraft increased.
If those planes being produced could have been solely assigned to the Russian Front and not required to defend the homeland, or North Arfrica, or France , or Carry out the. BoB, Germany would had enjoyed greater air superiority over Russian pilots.
so if the Nazi were not fighting Allied forces in those area they would have had more resources available fighting in Russia, another what, as in what if all of the German V weapons were used on Russia along with jet fighters and bomber, with no fear of regard retribution
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  #33  
Old 26 Jun 17, 04:26
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What I like about a question like that, on a thread like this, it brings in all the experts!! lcm1
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  #34  
Old 26 Jun 17, 05:25
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Not exactly a new bone of contention.

First thing, one would need to make it clear: what does "lack of US help" actually mean? The article starts with that, then it adds British participation in the war (and help - the British sent stuff to the Soviets, too). And is "US help" a reference to both Lend-Lease and direct military involvement? Only the one? Only the other?

If we go for the maximum option, the USA not going to war, not supplying anything to the SU, and the British somehow already out of combat by 1941, then my opinion is that a defeat of the Soviet Union - in the terms foreseen by German planners, i.e. not a total destruction - is possible, in 1941-42. Less and less likely as the war goes on.

Anything less than that maximum option, even just the British still defeating the Axis in Africa and bombing the German homeland, already makes this possibility less likely.
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  #35  
Old 26 Jun 17, 05:37
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Quote:
the USA not going to war
Germany declared war on the US - not sure what the Soviets could have done to prevent that ?
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  #36  
Old 26 Jun 17, 06:16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Michele View Post
Not exactly a new bone of contention.

First thing, one would need to make it clear: what does "lack of US help" actually mean? The article starts with that, then it adds British participation in the war (and help - the British sent stuff to the Soviets, too). And is "US help" a reference to both Lend-Lease and direct military involvement? Only the one? Only the other?

If we go for the maximum option, the USA not going to war, not supplying anything to the SU, and the British somehow already out of combat by 1941, then my opinion is that a defeat of the Soviet Union - in the terms foreseen by German planners, i.e. not a total destruction - is possible, in 1941-42. Less and less likely as the war goes on.

Anything less than that maximum option, even just the British still defeating the Axis in Africa and bombing the German homeland, already makes this possibility less likely.
As long as Britain was able to survive and maintain its blockade both physical and commercial of Germany then Germany was fated to eventually go down. Not only was the RN able to stop supplies physically reaching Germany but Britain's international involvement in financial services around the world made it possible for her to make it very difficult for Germany to finance the purchase of goods even if they could find a way round the RN. Hitler had in addition "shot himself in the foot" by not learning the lessons of WW1 when for more than two years Germany had managed to substantially evade the British blockade by importing goods in neutral bottoms via neutral countries but with the invasion and occupation of the Netherlands and Denmark the opportunities for this were greatly reduced. It is possible to make the argument that the Netherlands would have been much more useful to Germany as a neutral country than occupied.

With Germany locked into fighting the Soviet Union she was unable to spare the resources necessary to even have a thin chance of forcing Britain out of the war. Her one remaining chance of this was the U boat campaign but she simply did not put enough resource into this, although it was close. Perhaps she simply couldn't build enough U boats (for example natural rubber is used in many places in a submarine but it is also needed in truck tyres (artificial rubber won't do in certain areas) and the British blockade was depriving Germany of natural rubber. Nor could she get the tin and manganese necessary for the bronze bearings used in vital places in a ship's machinery)
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  #37  
Old 26 Jun 17, 06:44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Emtos View Post
I don't think we can apply those economical principes to totalitarian states.
Read Tooze. Read Edgerton.

It might not be 100% of the picture but Germany was going to lose almost regardless. Only by defeating the Soviets did they have a chance of not economically imploding, and Stalin was never going to surrender.
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  #38  
Old 26 Jun 17, 08:35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nick the Noodle View Post
Read Tooze. Read Edgerton.

It might not be 100% of the picture but Germany was going to lose almost regardless. Only by defeating the Soviets did they have a chance of not economically imploding, and Stalin was never going to surrender.
In our timeline Germany was able to fight on multiple fronts for a number of years without imploding. I'm not sure that a state which can displace and kill people by millions, which has at his service a dozen of conquered countries and led by fanatics, can economically imploding.

Concerning Stalin, there are suggestions that he wanted to make a Brest-Litovsk styled peace.
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  #39  
Old 26 Jun 17, 10:06
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowygerry View Post
Germany declared war on the US - not sure what the Soviets could have done to prevent that ?
Nothing. I'm just considering the set of conditions under which the Soviets would receive no outside help at all, regardless of why.
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  #40  
Old 26 Jun 17, 10:15
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Originally Posted by Michele View Post
Nothing. I'm just considering the set of conditions under which the Soviets would receive no outside help at all, regardless of why.
Points out of context are pointless.
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  #41  
Old 26 Jun 17, 10:20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkV View Post
As long as Britain was able to survive and maintain its blockade both physical and commercial of Germany then Germany was fated to eventually go down. Not only was the RN able to stop supplies physically reaching Germany but Britain's international involvement in financial services around the world made it possible for her to make it very difficult for Germany to finance the purchase of goods even if they could find a way round the RN.
While I'll readily agree that Germany's industrial capabilities were not ideally suited for sustaining a long war in the conditions of 1940, I wouldn't be so categoric as to predicting an unavoidable eventual fall.

Quote:
Hitler had in addition "shot himself in the foot" by not learning the lessons of WW1 when for more than two years Germany had managed to substantially evade the British blockade by importing goods in neutral bottoms via neutral countries but with the invasion and occupation of the Netherlands and Denmark the opportunities for this were greatly reduced.
Nah, here we disagree entirely. At the beginning of WWII, the British outlook towards these purchase-through-neutrals tricks was immediately the same as that at the end of WWI, not at the beginning. What policies were not already in place was due to impreparation, not to lack of intention. If Denmark, say, had remained neutral, the British would soon have prevented any such dealing.

All that said, I never said that Britain would somehow be forced out of the war. In the post you are replying to, I simply considered the worst possible situation for the Soviets as to allies and external help, i.e., none, regardless of the reasons for such a situation. Maybe a large meteorite hits London in 1939.
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  #42  
Old 26 Jun 17, 10:20
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Points out of context are pointless.
Depends for what purpose.
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  #43  
Old 26 Jun 17, 10:35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Moulin View Post
can anyone please explain a reasonable scenario where Germany would would win?
1) Not a Nazi government
2) A much more clever German foriegn policy where it builds a world wide anti communist alliance.
3) Fix Germany's economic and trade issues
4) Poland, Hungary, Romania and Finland are active allies while France and the UK are not in opposition.
5) A policy of liberation not exploitation. Setting up true independent governments for Ukraine, Belorussia, Armenia, Georgia, etc.
6) An effective anti communist propaganda campaign that when coupled with 5 will see Red Army desertions rise to catastrophic levels.
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  #44  
Old 26 Jun 17, 10:45
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Depends for what purpose.
Meh.
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  #45  
Old 26 Jun 17, 11:04
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AdrianE View Post
1) Not a Nazi government
2) A much more clever German foriegn policy where it builds a world wide anti communist alliance.
3) Fix Germany's economic and trade issues
4) Poland, Hungary, Romania and Finland are active allies while France and the UK are not in opposition.
5) A policy of liberation not exploitation. Setting up true independent governments for Ukraine, Belorussia, Armenia, Georgia, etc.
6) An effective anti communist propaganda campaign that when coupled with 5 will see Red Army desertions rise to catastrophic levels.
All of this is pretty impossible. After Versailles, there were little chances for Germany to don't be enemy with UK and France. Even if it wasn't Nazi, it's was against French and British interests to have a strong Germany.
Different policies against USSR wouldn't work either or in the best scenario, would be very limited.
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