HistoryNet.com RSS
ArmchairGeneral.com RSS

HistoryNet.com Articles
America's Civil War
American History
Aviation History
Civil War Times
MHQ
Military History
Vietnam
Wild West
World War II

ACG Online
ACG Magazine
Stuff We Like
War College
History News
Tactics 101
Carlo D'Este
Books

ACG Gaming
Boardgames
PC Game Reviews

ACG Network
Contact Us
Our Newsletter
Meet Our Staff
Advertise With Us

Sites We Support
HistoryNet.com
StreamHistory.com
Once A Marine
The Art of Battle
Game Squad
Mil. History Podcast
Russian Army - WW2
Achtung Panzer!
Mil History Online

Go Back   Armchair General and HistoryNet >> The Best Forums in History > Current Events > East Asia and the Pacific > North Korea

Notices and Announcements

North Korea The nuclear crisis in North Korea, including testing, sabre-rattling, sanctions, etc.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 23 Apr 17, 14:58
rkohut's Avatar
rkohut rkohut is offline
Sergeant Major
United_States
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Pennsylvania
Posts: 300
rkohut is on the path to success [1-99] rkohut is on the path to success [1-99] rkohut is on the path to success [1-99] rkohut is on the path to success [1-99] rkohut is on the path to success [1-99] rkohut is on the path to success [1-99]
North Korean nuclear threats..........

China;
http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/late...c-consequences

Seoul, South Korea;
http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel...4d80fabdd9f626

Australia;
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/no...line-u-n749816

USA;
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...-us/100693568/

US aircraft carrier;
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/0...135732661.html

The inevitable results of 'strong central control'
Reply With Quote
Facebook Connect and Magazine Promotions

World War II Magazine
$26.95

Armchair General Magazine
$26.95
Military History Magazine
$26.95
  #2  
Old 09 May 17, 17:02
G David Bock's Avatar
G David Bock G David Bock is offline
General of the Forums
United_States
ACG Ten Year Service Award 5 Year Service Ribbon Best Pin-Up Of World War II Most Significant/Influential Multi-Role Aircraft C 
 
Real Name: G David Bock
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Bellingham, Washington
Posts: 15,227
G David Bock has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] G David Bock has set a fine example for others to follow [1000]
G David Bock has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] G David Bock has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] G David Bock has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] G David Bock has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] G David Bock has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] G David Bock has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] G David Bock has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] G David Bock has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] G David Bock has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] G David Bock has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] G David Bock has set a fine example for others to follow [1000]
EXCLUSIVE – Congressional Expert: North Korea Prepping EMP Catastrophe Aimed At U.S. Homefront

EXCERPTS:
TEL AVIV – While the international community and news media focus on North Korean missile tests and the country’s nuclear program, one expert warned on Sunday that North Korea may be secretly assembling the capability to take out significant parts of the U.S. homeland via an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack.

Dr. Peter Vincent Pry is executive director of the Task Force on National and Homeland Security and is the chief of staff of the Congressional EMP Commission.

Speaking on this reporter’s talk radio program, Pry pointed to two North Korean satellites that are currently orbiting the U.S. at trajectories he says are optimized for a surprised EMP attack. “Aaron Klein Investigative Radio” is broadcast on terrestrial radio on New York’s AM 970 The Answer and NewsTalk 990 AM in Philadelphia and online.

Pry was referring to the KMS 3-2 and KMS-4 earth observation satellites launched by North Korea in April 2012 and February 2016 respectively.

He warned: “They are positioning themselves as sort of a nuclear missile age, cyberage version of the battleship diplomacy in my view. So that they can always have one of them (satellites) very close to being over the United States or over the United States.

“Then if a crisis comes up and if we decide to attack North Korea, Kim Jong Un can threaten our president and say, ‘Well, don’t do that because we are going to burn your whole country down.’ Which is basically what he said. I mean, he has made threats about turning the United States into ashes and he connected the satellite program to this in public statements to deter us from attacking.”

“If you wanted to win a New Korean war,” added Pry, “one of the things you would certainly consider doing is taking out the United States homeland itself.”

Pry surmised the North Koreans may be taking the idea from a Soviet plan during the Cold War to attack the U.S. with an EMP as part of a larger surprise assault aimed at crippling the U.S. military.
...
http://www.breitbart.com/jerusalem/2...u-s-homefront/

Not so sure NK has the ability to place nukes in orbit, but then, taking these out with ASATs (I know, "officially" we don't have ) would be the ideal openning action if we had to do anything "military" towards them.

As the wisdom goes, never underestimate an advisary. A nation with limited nuclear weapon capability would find the EMP use the best bang for buck, if they can pull it off.
__________________
Whiskey for my men, and beer for my horses.
TANSTAAFL = There Ain't No Such Thing As A Free Lunch
Bock's First Law of History: The Past shapes the Present, which forms the Future. *
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 09 May 17, 17:11
Bwaha's Avatar
Bwaha Bwaha is offline
General of the Forums
United_States
5 Year Service Ribbon Best Pin-Up Of World War II Most Significant/Influential Tank Campaign Most Significant/Influential Fighter Campaign 
Most Significant/Influential Multi-Role Aircraft C 
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Orbiting the Sun
Posts: 18,258
Bwaha has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Bwaha has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Bwaha has achieved enlightenment [1200+]
Bwaha has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Bwaha has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Bwaha has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Bwaha has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Bwaha has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Bwaha has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Bwaha has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Bwaha has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Bwaha has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Bwaha has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Bwaha has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Bwaha has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Bwaha has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Bwaha has achieved enlightenment [1200+]
The Norks have two satellites in orbit.

The satellites – KMS 3-2 and KMS 4 – are orbiting at an altitude of 300 miles, with trajectories that put them daily over the U.S. KMS 3-2 was launched in December 2012 and KMS 4 was launched Feb. 7.
__________________
Credo quia absurdum.


Quantum mechanics describes nature as absurd from the point of view of common sense. And yet it fully agrees with experiment. So I hope you can accept nature as She is - absurd! - Richard Feynman
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 23 May 17, 20:51
GCoyote's Avatar
GCoyote GCoyote is offline
ACG Forums - canis administrationem
United_States
Distinguished Service Award ACG Ten Year Service Award 5 Year Service Ribbon Greatest Westerns Campaign 
Greatest Spy Movies Campaign Greatest Blunders Campaign Best Pin-Up Of World War II Most Significant/Influential Tank Campaign 
Most Significant/Influential Multi-Role Aircraft C 
 
Real Name: Gary C
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Laurel, MD, USA
Posts: 19,077
GCoyote has achieved enlightenment [1200+] GCoyote has achieved enlightenment [1200+] GCoyote has achieved enlightenment [1200+] GCoyote has achieved enlightenment [1200+] GCoyote has achieved enlightenment [1200+]
GCoyote has achieved enlightenment [1200+] GCoyote has achieved enlightenment [1200+] GCoyote has achieved enlightenment [1200+] GCoyote has achieved enlightenment [1200+]
Makes you wonder

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bwaha View Post
The Norks have two satellites in orbit.

The satellites – KMS 3-2 and KMS 4 – are orbiting at an altitude of 300 miles, with trajectories that put them daily over the U.S. KMS 3-2 was launched in December 2012 and KMS 4 was launched Feb. 7.
If the USAF hasn't stopped by for a chat.

http://www.news.com.au/technology/sc...e7c709542480a8
__________________
Any metaphor will tear if stretched over too much reality.

Questions about our site? See the FAQ.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 04 Aug 17, 14:22
G David Bock's Avatar
G David Bock G David Bock is offline
General of the Forums
United_States
ACG Ten Year Service Award 5 Year Service Ribbon Best Pin-Up Of World War II Most Significant/Influential Multi-Role Aircraft C 
 
Real Name: G David Bock
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Bellingham, Washington
Posts: 15,227
G David Bock has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] G David Bock has set a fine example for others to follow [1000]
G David Bock has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] G David Bock has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] G David Bock has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] G David Bock has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] G David Bock has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] G David Bock has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] G David Bock has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] G David Bock has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] G David Bock has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] G David Bock has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] G David Bock has set a fine example for others to follow [1000]
'DON'T SLEEP EASY' US fires off new threat to Kim Jong-un over nuclear weapons after North Korea chillingly warns Donald Trump he’s due a ‘gift package’

It has also emerged that Kim’s nuclear missiles could nuke New York or Chicago within a hour of being launched
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/417032...-trump-threat/

North Korea could soon develop a hydrogen bomb more powerful than the atomic bombs dropped on Japan

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2017/...-on-japan.html
__________________
Whiskey for my men, and beer for my horses.
TANSTAAFL = There Ain't No Such Thing As A Free Lunch
Bock's First Law of History: The Past shapes the Present, which forms the Future. *
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 09 Aug 17, 06:47
SRV Ron's Avatar
SRV Ron SRV Ron is offline
General of the Forums
United_States
5 Year Service Ribbon 
 
Real Name: Ron Picardi
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Sag Nasty
Posts: 10,464
SRV Ron is simply cracking [600]
SRV Ron is simply cracking [600] SRV Ron is simply cracking [600] SRV Ron is simply cracking [600] SRV Ron is simply cracking [600] SRV Ron is simply cracking [600] SRV Ron is simply cracking [600] SRV Ron is simply cracking [600] SRV Ron is simply cracking [600] SRV Ron is simply cracking [600] SRV Ron is simply cracking [600] SRV Ron is simply cracking [600] SRV Ron is simply cracking [600]
As that fat headed tyrant pushes the world towards war with his starving country;

NKOREA: THIS IS NO JOKE...
ALASKA NERVOUS...
HAWAII WOULD HAVE 8-12 MINUTE NOTICE...
WORLD ON EDGE...
RUSSIA: CHILL!

TRUMP VOWS FIRE AND FURY

BOMBERS READY
KIM BULLSEYE: GUAM


I see it as a short and nasty war where the North will lash out with a massed artillery barrage on Seoul until our military can target and destroy those dug in and hardened emplacements. At the same time, special forces will move in and take out Kim and his leadership. Beyond that, it will all depend upon what the Chinese are willing to do to protect the spoiled brat.

Then, there will be the problem of what to do with 23 million starving brain dead people who have been programmed to worship Kim and believe that the rest of the world will do terrible things to them. Given the mass suicides Okinawan committed when US forces liberated their island in WW2, how will a population that has been brainwashed for 70 years react when they no longer have their slave masters telling them what to think and do?

__________________
"And now, It's time to go over the carefully selected stories for the evening news, stories that have been chosen to manipulate your emotions and thinking."
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 09 Aug 17, 06:53
Half Pint John's Avatar
Half Pint John Half Pint John is offline
General of the Forums
United_States
Distinguished Service Award ACG Ten Year Service Award 5 Year Service Ribbon March Offensive 
Summer Campaign 100 Greatest Generals, 2008 Most Decisive Battle Campaign, 2008 Greatest Westerns Campaign 
Greatest Spy Movies Campaign Greatest Blunders Campaign Best Pin-Up Of World War II Most Significant/Influential Tank Campaign 
Most Significant/Influential Fighter Campaign Most Significant/Influential Multi-Role Aircraft C 
 
Real Name: John (NO LABELS)
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Stuttgart Germany
Posts: 47,164
Half Pint John has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Half Pint John has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Half Pint John has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Half Pint John has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Half Pint John has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Half Pint John has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Half Pint John has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Half Pint John has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Half Pint John has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Half Pint John has achieved enlightenment [1200+]  [+1]
Half Pint John has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Half Pint John has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Half Pint John has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Half Pint John has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Half Pint John has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Half Pint John has achieved enlightenment [1200+]
A very nasty war Ron and once the lid is lifted off the box we don't know what is inside it.
__________________
"Ask not what your country can do for you"

Nearly all men can stand adversity, but if you want to test a man's character, give him power.

'half-baked, spurious nationalism'

Last edited by Half Pint John; 09 Aug 17 at 11:38..
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 09 Aug 17, 11:13
GCoyote's Avatar
GCoyote GCoyote is offline
ACG Forums - canis administrationem
United_States
Distinguished Service Award ACG Ten Year Service Award 5 Year Service Ribbon Greatest Westerns Campaign 
Greatest Spy Movies Campaign Greatest Blunders Campaign Best Pin-Up Of World War II Most Significant/Influential Tank Campaign 
Most Significant/Influential Multi-Role Aircraft C 
 
Real Name: Gary C
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Laurel, MD, USA
Posts: 19,077
GCoyote has achieved enlightenment [1200+] GCoyote has achieved enlightenment [1200+] GCoyote has achieved enlightenment [1200+] GCoyote has achieved enlightenment [1200+] GCoyote has achieved enlightenment [1200+]
GCoyote has achieved enlightenment [1200+] GCoyote has achieved enlightenment [1200+] GCoyote has achieved enlightenment [1200+] GCoyote has achieved enlightenment [1200+]
The Hostage Problem

If it were just the US vs the DPRK, this problem would have been settled long ago. It isn't. Over one half of the world's population now lives within range of a North Korean missile making any country in Asia that hosts a US facility or even votes in favor of sanctions a potential target. The more nations Kim can place at risk, the more pressure he can generate on Trump to negotiate.



Still, the ROK is the key player. If Seoul starts evacuating civilians it's a sign that the government believes the risk of war is high. That action cannot be hidden from the Pyongyang. Does Kim let the most vulnerable hostages get away or strike while he still has maximum leverage over the ROK?

Does this evolve like the August 1914? Does the belief that war is coming become a self-fulfilling prophecy?
Attached Images
File Type: jpg RoK Population Density 2000.jpg (151.2 KB, 9 views)
__________________
Any metaphor will tear if stretched over too much reality.

Questions about our site? See the FAQ.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 09 Aug 17, 11:31
GCoyote's Avatar
GCoyote GCoyote is offline
ACG Forums - canis administrationem
United_States
Distinguished Service Award ACG Ten Year Service Award 5 Year Service Ribbon Greatest Westerns Campaign 
Greatest Spy Movies Campaign Greatest Blunders Campaign Best Pin-Up Of World War II Most Significant/Influential Tank Campaign 
Most Significant/Influential Multi-Role Aircraft C 
 
Real Name: Gary C
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Laurel, MD, USA
Posts: 19,077
GCoyote has achieved enlightenment [1200+] GCoyote has achieved enlightenment [1200+] GCoyote has achieved enlightenment [1200+] GCoyote has achieved enlightenment [1200+] GCoyote has achieved enlightenment [1200+]
GCoyote has achieved enlightenment [1200+] GCoyote has achieved enlightenment [1200+] GCoyote has achieved enlightenment [1200+] GCoyote has achieved enlightenment [1200+]
Another Take on the Crisis

https://geopoliticalfutures.com/nort...-negotiations/

Quote:
North Korea, Nukes and Negotiations
Aug 9, 2017


By George Friedman

The narrative about North Korea, a narrative I believe to be true and have since early March, is simple: The North Koreans have reached a point in their nuclear and missile programs where they could soon have the capability to strike the United States. The U.S. isn’t prepared to let itself be vulnerable to the whims of what is seen as a dangerously unpredictable regime in Pyongyang. Therefore, the U.S. is prepared to strike at North Korea’s nuclear and missile facilities.

At the same time, the U.S. is extremely reluctant to attack. The nuclear program sites are dispersed and hardened, making airstrikes difficult, and North Korean artillery concentrated near the demilitarized zone could devastate Seoul. So as it considers not just whether a strike should be made, but whether one is even possible, the U.S. has been trying to motivate China to use its influence in North Korea to get Pyongyang to halt its weapons development. The U.S. position is that a strike will take place if diplomacy fails, but also that a conflict with North Korea would be difficult, dangerous and potentially devastating to allies. Thus, the U.S. is postponing such an action as long as possible.

As time passes, it is important to re-examine old assessments. The United States didn’t suddenly in the last few months conclude that an attack on North Korea was dangerous. The Americans had to have known the North Korean nuclear development program was dispersed and hardened, and they have publicly spoken about the artillery threat to Seoul. But they might have been galvanized by indications that the North Koreans had a miniaturized and ruggedized warhead and were close to having an intercontinental delivery capability. Given the degree of U.S. focus on North Korea, however, the appearance of sudden apprehension is odd.

One way to look at this is that the North Koreans were also aware of the hurdles involved in attacking them and knew that the U.S. would hesitate. They therefore decided to rush forward to complete a weapon that would threaten and deter the United States at a time when U.S. relations with Russia and China were unstable and the new American president hadn’t yet settled in. They saw an opening they could push through to complete their weapon and hold the United States at bay.

The problem with this theory is that North Korea didn’t really need to keep the U.S. at bay. The U.S. has no real interest in North Korea. It has no desire to overthrow the regime, to reform it, to trade with it or to visit it. The idea that a nuclear weapon would make North Korea safer was dubious, and the regime must have known that. Since 1953 and the armistice, the U.S. was formally hostile and practically indifferent toward North Korea. On the surface, it would seem that North Korea had more to fear from actually threatening the United States.

In thinking about this, I have begun to reconsider a model that I had used to explain U.S.-North Korea relations since the 1990s until this past March and the beginning of this crisis. That model is what I call North Korea’s “ferocious, weak and crazy” posture.

Ferocious, Weak and Crazy

This strategy emerged after the fall of the Soviet Union and the transformation of China from a nation hostile to the United States into one that depended on it for trade. North Korea found itself in an extraordinarily dangerous position. Japan and South Korea were seen as hostile toward it, if passive. Russia was incapable of protecting it, and China had bigger fish to fry. The U.S. was emerging as a global power, no longer challenged by other great powers. North Korea was isolated, and in its mind, the U.S. was rampaging and toppling regimes of which it didn’t approve. There was no reason for it to think North Korea wouldn’t be a target. Pyongyang’s goal was regime survival, and guaranteeing that was enormously different.

The solution was to position itself, at least in perception, as something not to be disturbed. First, the North Koreans sought to appear ferocious. At the beginning, they accomplished this with their massive military (however poorly armed) and by zeroing their artillery in on Seoul. True, they had limited resources, but the fanatical nature of the regime and its forces made the country appear dangerous and powerful beyond its means. Fanaticism was its force multiplier. No one wants to mess with a fanatic unless they have to, and no one had to.

The second element of the plan, paradoxically, was to look weak. The famines of the 1990s were real, but they also made outsiders believe that the regime had only months to live. The regime knew better. It knew that the internal ferocity could be sustained and that unrest would not turn into an uprising. But from the outside, it appeared that the regime was tottering. If the regime were on the verge of collapse, why should anyone take the trouble of bringing it down? Weakness was a deterrent.

In a photo taken on July 21, 2017, pedestrians and vehicles pass before the portraits of late North Korean leaders Kim Il Sung (L) and Kim Jong Il in Pyongyang. ED JONES/AFP/Getty Images
Finally, the North Koreans said things that made them appear insane. They acted as if they could destroy the world, threatened the U.S. with annihilation, and occasionally sank a ship or blew up a group of South Korea diplomats. Ferocious as they were, why take the risk of engaging them? Weak as they were, why bother? Crazy as they were, prudence dictated avoidance.

In this theory, the decades-long nuclear program fit in. Having nuclear weapons might invite military counters, but working on nuclear weapons fit with the doctrine of ferocity. North Korea’s weakness made it appear as though it were a futile attempt. Its insanity made it seem like another act of frivolity. Guarded by those principles, the North Koreans could develop a nuclear force.

They could also use their nuclear program as a negotiating tool and a way to inflate their importance. The United States didn’t want North Korea to even try to develop nuclear weapons. Success might be distant, but the risks were high. Since military action was not a reasonable option, extensive negotiation took place to convince North Korea to give up its program. The U.S. put together a group consisting of itself, Japan, South Korea, China and Russia to negotiate with North Korea. Step back and observe the brilliance of Pyongyang’s strategy. An impoverished tyranny was sitting across the table from five major powers that treated it not only as an equal, but as the equal of all five powers together. The effect on domestic perception had to be electric. It had been crazy to speak of North Korea as a great power; now the negotiations confirmed its place.

There were other benefits as well. Periodically, North Korea won material concessions from these countries in return for halting its program. This was certainly the case when the North Koreans took the benefits, resumed their program and returned to the negotiating table for another round of affirmation and aid.

The Mother of All Negotiations

But there was one principle embedded in this strategy: North Korea would have a nuclear program but not obtain a deliverable weapon. The former allowed it to manipulate great powers; the latter could bring catastrophe, even at a high price to the attacker. In March, it began to appear that the North Koreans had abandoned the key element of this strategy. Rather than a perpetual program, they were actually going to get nuclear weapons. They appeared very close to having one – mere months away – and they did this very publicly.

Yet consider this: They may get a deliverable nuclear weapon, but they acknowledge that they don’t have one yet. Perhaps at this point they can’t be more secretive than they are, but the fact is that they are waving warning flags for all to see. The military balance makes the U.S. extremely cautious about an attack, the South Koreans horrified at the thought, the Japanese ambiguous, and the Chinese and Russians hostile. The North Koreans look at the group they had negotiated with before, and they undoubtedly wonder whether the U.S. will act.

Certainly, the U.S. must be cautious. The North Koreans are ferocious, still a small, weak power in most ways, and crazier than ever, threatening to set the U.S. on fire. Therefore, ask this question: Do the North Koreans truly intend to obtain a nuclear weapon, or to come so close that it is within reach? Having gotten close, do they mean to set up the ultimate negotiation in which they exact massive concessions from the United States and others, including diplomatic recognition, economic concessions and perhaps even a type of confederation with South Korea in which the benefits flow north? After all, South Korea stands to lose the most if there is a war. Perhaps the South would consider some sort of deal?

North Korea doesn’t know what it can get, but one interpretation is that it is creating the framework for a negotiation in which it holds all the cards. The North Koreans likely can’t get all of what they can imagine, but given the American fear of North Korean nuclear weapons, the South Korean fear of war, and tensions between China and the U.S., the Americans would have to consider not only a nuclearized North Korea, but also a North Korea supported by Russia and perhaps China. The public American statement on the reluctance to go to war and its constant search for a diplomatic solution might convince North Korea that it is on the right track.

This is not a forecast but a consideration of an oddity. North Korea exposes itself to more risk by obtaining nuclear weapons. It increases its leverage by being close to having them but not actually having them. The value of nuclear weapons is low; the value of a program has always shown itself to be high. The more reluctant North Korea is to talk, the crazier it appears, and the crazier it appears, the more at a loss the United States is as to how to deal with it. According to this theory, those who argue that there is no military option and that we must accept North Korea as a nuclear power may actually have a point, but it’s not the point they think. If the U.S. accepts a nuclearized North Korea, North Korea will be the dog that chased a car and caught it, and will now have to figure out what to do with it.

I continue to think war is the most likely outcome. But as time has gone on, I’ve noted the complexities of such a war for the United States and have recalled other, much less extreme moments when the North Koreans used their nuclear program as a tool for bargaining. That was my view until March, when the level of urgency spiked, and I abandoned it and took the view that war was the likely outcome. I am obligated, however, to point out my previous view, which would have held this to be the mother of all negotiations. If that is going to happen, it must happen quickly. The U.S., South Korea and Japan all have said they want negotiations. But every sign indicates that North Korea is rushing to acquire a deliverable weapon and deter any country from tampering with it. War would occur before North Korea can reach that point, in my view. But in the back of my mind, I have to be open to the possibility that the ferocious, weak and crazy cripple is alive and well. If so, the North Koreans believe they have a precise understanding of the red line. In the end, I don’t believe they do.

The post North Korea, Nukes and Negotiations appeared first on Geopolitics | Geopolitical Futures.

The greatest compliment you can give us is a recommendation to your friends and colleagues. Please feel free to share this piece with anyone you think would enjoy reading it.
__________________
Any metaphor will tear if stretched over too much reality.

Questions about our site? See the FAQ.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 09 Aug 17, 13:43
ljadw's Avatar
ljadw ljadw is offline
General of the Forums
Belgium
5 Year Service Ribbon 
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: zottegem
Posts: 14,353
ljadw gives and gets respect [800]
ljadw gives and gets respect [800] ljadw gives and gets respect [800] ljadw gives and gets respect [800] ljadw gives and gets respect [800] ljadw gives and gets respect [800] ljadw gives and gets respect [800] ljadw gives and gets respect [800] ljadw gives and gets respect [800] ljadw gives and gets respect [800] ljadw gives and gets respect [800] ljadw gives and gets respect [800] ljadw gives and gets respect [800] ljadw gives and gets respect [800] ljadw gives and gets respect [800] ljadw gives and gets respect [800]
I still doubt that there will be a war, because of the opposition of South Korea : if US attack NK with conventional /nuclear weapons , and one ,only ONE NK missime with a nuclear load escapes the destruction, who will be the victim of this missile ? Not US, but SK,and millions of South Koreans will die . And a war against the opposition of SK will be impossible,because the ground fighting will be done by the Roks.

I imagine a meeting between Trump and the soft liberal president of SK :

Trump : we must attack NK before it attacks the US which could result in thousands of deaths .

SK : not my business :I am not the Potus,an attack on NK can result in millions of SK casualties .

Trump : not my business : I am not the president of SK . The SK can not vote against me in 2020,but the inhabitants of Washington can ,and Washington has 12 EV .
Reply With Quote
Sponsored Links

  #11  
Old 10 Aug 17, 13:44
Escape2Victory's Avatar
Escape2Victory Escape2Victory is offline
Lieutenant General
UK
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: Birmingham
Posts: 3,690
Escape2Victory is walking in the light [200] Escape2Victory is walking in the light [200] Escape2Victory is walking in the light [200] Escape2Victory is walking in the light [200] Escape2Victory is walking in the light [200] Escape2Victory is walking in the light [200] Escape2Victory is walking in the light [200] Escape2Victory is walking in the light [200] Escape2Victory is walking in the light [200] Escape2Victory is walking in the light [200] Escape2Victory is walking in the light [200] Escape2Victory is walking in the light [200]
Quote:
Originally Posted by GCoyote View Post
Much hinges on high quality, accurate intelligence. What is the state of the nuclear programme? What are their true intentions once they acquire a nuke?

If those can be answered it is easier to form a policy response. To the uninformed outsider, there is not enough information to judge what will likely happen, or what should happen.
__________________
Ne Obliviscaris, Sans Peur
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 10 Aug 17, 15:15
Surrey's Avatar
Surrey Surrey is offline
General of the Forums
UK
5 Year Service Ribbon March Offensive Summer Campaign 100 Greatest Generals, 2008 
Most Decisive Battle Campaign, 2008 Most Significant/Influential Tank Campaign Most Significant/Influential Fighter Campaign Most Significant/Influential Multi-Role  Aircraft 
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Surrey
Posts: 5,747
Surrey is a jewel in the rough [500]
Surrey is a jewel in the rough [500] Surrey is a jewel in the rough [500] Surrey is a jewel in the rough [500] Surrey is a jewel in the rough [500] Surrey is a jewel in the rough [500] Surrey is a jewel in the rough [500] Surrey is a jewel in the rough [500]
The current threat is for the North Koreans to fire missiles at Guam, a US territory. Even if the missiles are intercepted or miss I can't see how the US can let this go without a military response. The NKs would have fired on US sovereign territory, something which no one has done since ww2. Trump's policy thus should be pretty much as it is, to warn of the dire consequences of attacking the US directly.
__________________
"To be free is better than to be unfree - always."
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 10 Aug 17, 16:56
Escape2Victory's Avatar
Escape2Victory Escape2Victory is offline
Lieutenant General
UK
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: Birmingham
Posts: 3,690
Escape2Victory is walking in the light [200] Escape2Victory is walking in the light [200] Escape2Victory is walking in the light [200] Escape2Victory is walking in the light [200] Escape2Victory is walking in the light [200] Escape2Victory is walking in the light [200] Escape2Victory is walking in the light [200] Escape2Victory is walking in the light [200] Escape2Victory is walking in the light [200] Escape2Victory is walking in the light [200] Escape2Victory is walking in the light [200] Escape2Victory is walking in the light [200]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Surrey View Post
The current threat is for the North Koreans to fire missiles at Guam, a US territory. Even if the missiles are intercepted or miss I can't see how the US can let this go without a military response. The NKs would have fired on US sovereign territory, something which no one has done since ww2. Trump's policy thus should be pretty much as it is, to warn of the dire consequences of attacking the US directly.
The threat, as I read it, was to splash the missiles in the sea a few miles offshore of Guam. A deliberate miss, if highly provocative. It is not the same as striking US soil, which I expect would be intolerable and demand a military response.
__________________
Ne Obliviscaris, Sans Peur
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 10 Aug 17, 19:36
GCoyote's Avatar
GCoyote GCoyote is offline
ACG Forums - canis administrationem
United_States
Distinguished Service Award ACG Ten Year Service Award 5 Year Service Ribbon Greatest Westerns Campaign 
Greatest Spy Movies Campaign Greatest Blunders Campaign Best Pin-Up Of World War II Most Significant/Influential Tank Campaign 
Most Significant/Influential Multi-Role Aircraft C 
 
Real Name: Gary C
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Laurel, MD, USA
Posts: 19,077
GCoyote has achieved enlightenment [1200+] GCoyote has achieved enlightenment [1200+] GCoyote has achieved enlightenment [1200+] GCoyote has achieved enlightenment [1200+] GCoyote has achieved enlightenment [1200+]
GCoyote has achieved enlightenment [1200+] GCoyote has achieved enlightenment [1200+] GCoyote has achieved enlightenment [1200+] GCoyote has achieved enlightenment [1200+]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Escape2Victory View Post
The threat, as I read it, was to splash the missiles in the sea a few miles offshore of Guam. A deliberate miss, if highly provocative. It is not the same as striking US soil, which I expect would be intolerable and demand a military response.
That's pretty much what I've seen as well but the DPRK doesn't exactly have the decades of operational experience and years of drills with production level systems that would guarantee these missiles land where the leadership intends them to. This is still rocket science after all.

Until the smoke cleared and it was certain that no one had been hurt, the US and to a lesser extent the ROK, and Japan would have to treat it as a deliberate attack. In an atmosphere like this, a simple miscalculation can drag everyone down the rabbit hole.
__________________
Any metaphor will tear if stretched over too much reality.

Questions about our site? See the FAQ.
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 10 Aug 17, 20:35
GCoyote's Avatar
GCoyote GCoyote is offline
ACG Forums - canis administrationem
United_States
Distinguished Service Award ACG Ten Year Service Award 5 Year Service Ribbon Greatest Westerns Campaign 
Greatest Spy Movies Campaign Greatest Blunders Campaign Best Pin-Up Of World War II Most Significant/Influential Tank Campaign 
Most Significant/Influential Multi-Role Aircraft C 
 
Real Name: Gary C
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Laurel, MD, USA
Posts: 19,077
GCoyote has achieved enlightenment [1200+] GCoyote has achieved enlightenment [1200+] GCoyote has achieved enlightenment [1200+] GCoyote has achieved enlightenment [1200+] GCoyote has achieved enlightenment [1200+]
GCoyote has achieved enlightenment [1200+] GCoyote has achieved enlightenment [1200+] GCoyote has achieved enlightenment [1200+] GCoyote has achieved enlightenment [1200+]
Just saw this in my email.

https://www.thecipherbrief.com/artic...ility-accuracy
__________________
Any metaphor will tear if stretched over too much reality.

Questions about our site? See the FAQ.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Please bookmark this thread if you enjoyed it!


Thread Tools
Display Modes



Forum Jump

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 00:20.
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.