THUNDER RUN TO SEOUL: ASSESSING NORTH KOREA’S WAR PLAN
Raymond Farrell | April 25, 2017
According to information in article above and your own knowledge do you think the DPRK's goal of taking Seoul achievable?
- Use of artillery to soften up targets
- Use of large SOF to cause panic, create confusion, destabilize leadership, ambush heavier units
- Use of numbers to overwhelm ROK and US units
If you were the DPRK how would you do it?
If you were the ROK how would you defend against it?
If you were the US how would you help the ROK defeat the DPRK?
We know that there is no way the DPRK can achieve the same success they had in 1950 but what if Seoul was occupied by the DPRK? Do we negotiate with them or do we fight a prolonged urban battle? Is the ROK ready to sustain large amounts of casualties and damage in its capital by fighting house to house? How fast can the ROK mobilize the country and bring in reinforcements to prevent the fall of Seoul or counterattack fast enough to prevent the DPRK from digging in?
What will be the US' role in helping the ROK if they choose to fight? What kind of assets can the US bring within a week to prevent the fall of Seoul? Will the Okinawan based 3rd Marine Expeditionary Force get to Seoul fast enough and be enough to hold the DPRK back? How fast can the 1st Marine Expeditionary Force deploy to Korea? How fast can the XVIII Airborne Corps get to theater and what will be their primary objectives in South Korea? How fast can the 25th Infantry Division in Hawaii and Alaska get to theater with all their equipment? Does the USAF have the airlift capability to bring said units personnel and equipment near Seoul within a week? Which units will be chosen first? What SOCOM units will deploy to Korea and what will be their mission in this scenario? Will the US' regional allies or the UN provide any military support?
I suspect that the 2ID will retreat to at least Uijeongbu within the first days, but that the DPRK will already have shelled all US installations near the border so whats left may not be fully capable of fighting a defense by themselves. Whats left of the 2ID may try to slow the advance and fight a withdrawal to Seoul with ROK units. The Army's 1st SF Group and Air Force's Special Operations Group from Japan may be first units from outside the country. Not sure what SF units the Marines have in Okinawa that they could detach. Also unsure what SEAL Teams, Naval Special Warfare Groups and other Air Force Special Operations Groups would deploy first and how quickly they can get to Korea.
After that, I don't think its possible to get heavy brigades with all their equipment to Korea fast enough. If they lose Seoul and more importantly Incheon, they would have to off load somewhere else further south like Pyeongtaek, which is close to Camp Humphreys. The only other port would be Daesan further west which is still a practical convoy start. Kunsan to the south where Kunsan Air Base would be very far for practical ground movement unless DPRK forces pushed past Pyeongtaek.