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Go Back   Armchair General and HistoryNet >> The Best Forums in History > Current Events > Russia, Central Asia, and The Caucasus > Ukrainian Crisis

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Ukrainian Crisis Discuss the unfolding crisis in Ukraine.

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  #31  
Old 03 Feb 17, 17:20
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About the Tochka missiles.

I gave you a reasonable explanation for something that is unexplainable, some sort of antimissile defense, I guess. Truth is that I don't know.

But then I thought, one thing is a ballistic missile like the SCUD, and another very different a short range rocket like the Tochka. I recall now that ships have anti missile missiles and that they can also be brought down by Vulcan guns aimed by radar.

So perhaps there's no Russian "secret weapon" and they have been destroyed simply by Novorussian antiaircraft missiles?

And there's another intriguing possibility. These missiles have been quite erratic. Some were blown up in the air, some exploded in the middle of empty spaces, and only a few actually hit their targets, mostly factories.

You were joking about the Ukrainians destroying their own missiles, but you gave me something to think about.

What if it is actually Ukrainian crews sabotaging their missiles? There were reports that at Slavyansk many artillery shells failed to explode. I attributed these duds to just old ammo or incompetent gunners forgetting to set fuses. A Spanish doctor volunteer in Donbass reported for slavyangrad.es that he had heard and seen about a unusually high proportion of duds and reported he was told that this was done by Ukrainian gunners sympathetic to the rebels, or unwilling to kill civilians, that obeyed their fire orders but didn't set the fuses to prevent deaths. I was skeptical, but then later realized that modern artillery fuses actually work 99% of the time. The historical record with dud shells being a significant percentage, is that it happened under specific circumstances, in First World War, in British artillery, due to enormous expansion of munitions production with poor quality control wich led to a rate of 20% duds in 1916, and in Germany during WWII where slave labourers often sabotaged shells, that, and lack of explosive towards 1944 wich reduced explosive filling and the rest was filled with salts. So I had to accept the story as true, some, a lot of Ukrainian gunners were doing their bit not to kill civilians and aid the other side.

I don't believe there are many good people remaining in the Ukrainian army after three years of war, but perhaps there still are, and the missile firing crew realize the implications of firing a missile with a half ton of explosives into a residential area and deliberately aimed at the wrong place, or like last one, somehow set the missile fuse to explode relatively harmlessly in the air, obeying orders and using as an excuse that "don't know what happened, sir. Russians must have some secret weapon to destroy our missiles". Still, I don't believe they did this out of humanity, but most likely realizing the war is lost, and some day in the future they may be accountable for war crimes.


Unlikely, I know, but perhaps not as far fetched as Russian "secret weapons". A Russian SAM unit with their attached radars would be very conspicuous. The other possibility is that, perhaps, the rumours regarding the American destroyer USS Cook electronics being disabled by some mysterious EM waves are true, and the Russian do have some kind of Tesla "death ray".
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  #32  
Old 06 Feb 17, 15:49
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Aside from the sticky thread, here is the latest update on the fighting

https://southfront.org/donbass-update-february-6-2017/
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  #33  
Old 07 Feb 17, 06:31
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Analysis of artillery firing against civilian areas

http://www.fort-russ.com/2017/02/how...ry-shells.html

Synopsis of video:

Due to the frontline passing essentially on the outskirts of Donetsk (and Avdeevka), artillery being fired out of/into city limits is somewhat inevitable. The armies try to set their positions some distance from residential areas (i.e. use empty fields, parks, and industrial areas within their cities), but that's not always possible - which leads to some stray shells hitting residential areas during "normal" combat actions despite being actually aimed at enemy positions.
Nearly 100% of hits by DPR army on residential areas and at least 50% of UAF hits are in this category (i.e. stray hits next to empty fields containing probable enemy positions).
However, there is a sizeable number of UAF artillery hits deep in residential areas of Donetsk (among them two schools, three hospitals, and two mines - which leaves workers stranded underground). Also, even when UAF shells land in the vicinity of frontline, they tend to land much further from it (DPR stray shells look to be at most 200m from their intended targets, whereas there are plenty of UAF "strays" up to 500m from frontline). Overall, in 4 days before video was made, DPR hit residential areas 20 times, whereas UAF hit residential areas over 100 times.
Still, for UAF this is a marked improvement over 2014, when shelling was completely random and widely viewed as a terror tactic to force the populace to surrender or leave.



- The Ukrainian forces not dare firing artillery into residential areas because Merkel pressured by Putin told Poroshenko to stop in august 2015, when another resumption of large scale hostilities seemed inminent.

There's also the fact that they would continue with terror bombardments if the counterbattery fire hadn't pushed them away. They simply lack the range or numbers to fire into downtown Donetsk anymore. They continue with terror shellings, but in a more discrete manner to claim they are just stray shots.

Civilian casualties would be much larger if it weren't for the fact that most people living in areas within range have fled or moved elsewhere in the cities.
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  #34  
Old 07 Feb 17, 08:01
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Originally Posted by von Junzt View Post
(...)
You were joking about the Ukrainians destroying their own missiles, but you gave me something to think about..
Historically the purpose of satire has always been to reveal human imperfection and give cause for thought.

Mission accomplished

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A Russian SAM unit with their attached radars would be very conspicuous.
Why ?

I'm no expert - but presumably they can be deployed on the Russian side of the border and still cover the separatist lines.

It would prevent accidental firing on unidentified targets as may happen when you use SAM without their attached radars, and perhaps more importantly - they can cooperate with Russian air traffic control.

It would be the logical thing to do.
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  #35  
Old 07 Feb 17, 13:03
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A Russian SAM unit with their attached radars would be very conspicuous.
In the middle of war zone against an opponent as ISR-limited as the Ukrainian Army, not really. From available pictures, there appear to be several small groups of vehicles used by the separatist forces, obviously of Soviet design and much of it from Ukrainian sources.

However, training, operation and spares is likely to be at least party provided by Russia to maintain the ability of the separatist forces to fight on.
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  #36  
Old 07 Feb 17, 14:40
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A worthy summary of the big picture, by Cassad, in english

https://southfront.org/donbass-the-big-picture/

And unusually and not seen since the outbreak of the war, civil resistance to the regime army

In the Kherson region have blocked column APU on the way to Mariupol


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Last edited by von Junzt; 07 Feb 17 at 15:05..
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  #37  
Old 07 Feb 17, 16:54
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Russ-Fort and SouthFront

Meanwhile, according to the Deutsche Wochenschau...
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  #38  
Old 09 Feb 17, 13:08
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluenose View Post
Or maybe it is simply true; not all news sites find it necessary to fabricate everything. Not all have an agenda. Some of them - and I know it is hard to believe - do make an effort to report what is occurring. Again, my interest was that this was reliable only when it agreed with what you thought but not under other circumstances

Much as I enjoy your alliteration, I am afraid that you are misunderstanding my point. I do, as a matter of fact, consider RT to be 95% rubbish (and I've had the dubious honour of been on one of their English language discussion programmes). What I meant was; if RFE is a US propaganda piece, that you are assigning it credibility when it suits you seems a little shallow

Something of which you and your ally Col. Juntz are innocent? In the spirit of disputing the statement not the stater, please re-read the sentence I wrote and dispute it.

It is a poor-man's term, demonstrating a lack of articulation but entirely suitable for moronic social media and similarly low-brow interchanges; I would not be surprised if it featured soon in one of Trump's twats (or it is 'tweets'?).

It reflects ill on you, but[t] if you like using it then of course you should feel free to continue.
Yawn. I deliberately presented the source which you are supposed to have no issues with, alhtough there are lots of others saying perfectly the same, but which you would eagerly discard, and yet you have a problem again - not with the source, but in this case with me

And the reason is that you just need to find something to distract attention from the fact that the Ukrainians did start the "creeping offensive" which was the reason for the rekindled hostilities in January. If you ever decide to switch to debating the topic at hand, not me personally, I'll humour you. If you continue to make hollow invectives agaisnt me without touching upon the subject, I have no time for that.
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  #39  
Old 09 Feb 17, 13:24
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This video was filmed two years ago by the Ukrainian "112" TV channel in Avdeevka. It's old, but it gives an idea of where the sympathies of the locals lay. Check out 1:00, when the journalist approaches the locals. They shout "Khohkly! Khokhly!" (insult for Ukrainians) and the cameraman has to jump off from him. The embarrassed journalist comments (quite lamely) that the people are "angry and they need to take out their anger on someone". Then she tries pushing the governmental propaganda and asks the local woman it's the "Russian terrorists shooting at he town", to which the woman responds angrily: "What Russians? Half of our town's men joined the DPR!"



A quite delightful example of propaganda fail, reminds me of that highly famous (in Russia) Fox News interview, when the TV host asks a 8 year old Ossetian girl if she had to take cover from Russian missiles (August 2008), and she says: "No, these were Georgian missiles". The guy was flabbergasted and tried to insist the missiles were Russian, driving himself into an even deeper propaganda-induced doo-doo.
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Old 09 Feb 17, 16:17
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Quote:
Yawn. I deliberately presented the source which you are supposed to have no issues with, alhtough there are lots of others saying perfectly the same, but which you would eagerly discard, and yet you have a problem again - not with the source, but in this case with me
No, re-read what I wrote. I was intrigued that you used a Western source when usually these are usually presented as inherently unreliable. Or, to put it another way, do you agree that Western [sic] sources might be reliable?

Quote:
If you continue to make hollow invectives agaisnt me without touching upon the subject, I have no time for that.
Please indicate the invective that I used. From someone who believes 'butt-hurt' raises the tone of a conversation, that is amusing.

Quote:
when the TV host asks a 8 year old Ossetian girl if she had to take cover from Russian missiles (August 2008), and she says: "No, these were Georgian missiles
An 8 year old with an unusually high degree of equipment knowledge. I suppose that the people of Crimea also welcomed the little green men that were denied to be - then admitted to be - Russian soldiers. Or is that simply a Western [sic] 'propaganda fail'?
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Old 11 Feb 17, 03:41
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Poitions of the Ukrainian troops by Feb 2017

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Old 11 Feb 17, 21:46
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Old 11 Feb 17, 21:52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by amvas View Post
Poitions of the Ukrainian troops by Feb 2017

How accurate, in your opinion, are these unit dispositions given Ukraine's use of battalion tactical groups in the past?
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Old 12 Feb 17, 04:47
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluenose View Post
An 8 year old with an unusually high degree of equipment knowledge.
I don't think it requires an unusually high degree of equipment knowledge to know from which direction missiles are coming. Compare that to Little Bana of Aleppo, the 7 year old propaganda star with rudimentary English, who can correctly identify (and spell) phosphorus bombs..
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Old 12 Feb 17, 05:28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shogun View Post
How accurate, in your opinion, are these unit dispositions given Ukraine's use of battalion tactical groups in the past?
They do use those tactical groups now too. Also they operates by even smaller groups 10-20 soldiers in each. It's bloody tactics foir their own, but they still uses it.
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