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Go Back   Armchair General and HistoryNet >> The Best Forums in History > Current Events > East Asia and the Pacific

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East Asia and the Pacific China - Japan - Australia and challenges throughout East Asia.

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  #1  
Old 19 Dec 16, 13:12
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Passing a Chinese Maritime 'Trump Test'

A very good article from the National Interest; we shall see how this plays out in the long run.

Quote:
In recent years, China has tested each new American president. The past two faced an early challenge: George W. Bush with increasingly aggressive aircraft intercepts that triggered the April 2001 EP-3 crisis, Barack Obama with the March 2009 Impeccable incident. China appears to engineer tensions or activities to assess a president’s position in an area of its interest and to attempt to alter his decision-making to Beijing’s preferences. While motivations are hard to prove, Trump and his team must certainly prepare for the possibility that at some point Beijing—having never “forgotten” whatever statements and actions may accumulate despite its objections—will push back in a manner that effectively poses a test. If the past is any guide, Chinese leaders may test the new administration early on.
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/...ump-test-18754
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  #2  
Old 19 Dec 16, 20:14
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I'm not sure if Beijing will like the result.

Concerning the EP3 incident, Bush should have destroyed the EP3 on Hainan with a Tomahawk or B-2 strike.

The Impeccable incident is further proof that USNS missions need to be escorted.
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Old 20 Dec 16, 06:08
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You call it a test. I call it piracy.
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Old 20 Dec 16, 09:10
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Originally Posted by Gixxer86g View Post
I'm not sure if Beijing will like the result.

Concerning the EP3 incident, Bush should have destroyed the EP3 on Hainan with a Tomahawk or B-2 strike.

The Impeccable incident is further proof that USNS missions need to be escorted.
Jim, the EP-3 pilot should have ditched that plane in the water and should have been court martialed for failing to do so, but I am old school that way. I agree that this was nothing more than Chinese piracy, and I suspect that it may have been a loyalty test for Duterte; the silence from Manila was deafening. Assigning a DDG to escort the TAGOS boats might be the right answer; we shall see how this plays out though.
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Old 20 Dec 16, 09:59
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Originally Posted by Bass_Man86 View Post
Jim, the EP-3 pilot should have ditched that plane in the water and should have been court martialed for failing to do so, but I am old school that way. I agree that this was nothing more than Chinese piracy, and I suspect that it may have been a loyalty test for Duterte; the silence from Manila was deafening. Assigning a DDG to escort the TAGOS boats might be the right answer; we shall see how this plays out though.
My Dad, ex-Air Force, said the same thing about the EP-3. Should have ditched.
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  #6  
Old 20 Dec 16, 20:19
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Originally Posted by Bass_Man86 View Post
Jim, the EP-3 pilot should have ditched that plane in the water and should have been court martialed for failing to do so, but I am old school that way. I agree that this was nothing more than Chinese piracy, and I suspect that it may have been a loyalty test for Duterte; the silence from Manila was deafening. Assigning a DDG to escort the TAGOS boats might be the right answer; we shall see how this plays out though.
The silence from Manila? You mean, after we were informed AFTER the drone was seized that there was indeed a US ship OPERATING within our EEZ?

http://www.rappler.com/nation/155794...outh-china-sea
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Old 21 Dec 16, 10:57
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The silence from Manila? You mean, after we were informed AFTER the drone was seized that there was indeed a US ship OPERATING within our EEZ?

http://www.rappler.com/nation/155794...outh-china-sea
An EEZ is not considered territorial waters, if it was the Philippine contiguous zone (12 to 24 nm out) then you could argue the State Department should have notified their Filipino counterparts. So, yes, the silence from Manila was indeed deafening. There could have been some statement to the effect that "while the USNS Bowditch was operating in the Philippine EEZ without having notified Filipino authorities, the PRC had no business seizing the naval equipment of the longest standing ally of the Republic of the Philippines." However, that was not the case. I am not sure what the Duterte administration may or may not have know about this incident, but the fact that nothing was said either pro or con the incident leads me to believe that Duterte is at the very least playing both sides against each other.
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Old 21 Dec 16, 18:23
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Originally Posted by Bass_Man86 View Post
An EEZ is not considered territorial waters, if it was the Philippine contiguous zone (12 to 24 nm out) then you could argue the State Department should have notified their Filipino counterparts. So, yes, the silence from Manila was indeed deafening. There could have been some statement to the effect that "while the USNS Bowditch was operating in the Philippine EEZ without having notified Filipino authorities, the PRC had no business seizing the naval equipment of the longest standing ally of the Republic of the Philippines." However, that was not the case. I am not sure what the Duterte administration may or may not have know about this incident, but the fact that nothing was said either pro or con the incident leads me to believe that Duterte is at the very least playing both sides against each other.
I'm aware where it occurred. Oh, our admin was not quiet. They said, it's a matter between China and the US to settle, and it's in international waters (as you said) so it's got nothing to do with us. And I agree. It happened in our EEZ, yes, now if the US doesn't respect us enough to show some courtesy by letting us know they're operating (doing oceanographic survey - WHY?) inside our EEZ, why should we condemn what happens to them?

To look at your quote, you're saying despite the discourtesy, we're expected to stand up with the US against something that was done to their drone when we were not even aware they were there much less conducting said survey? Wow, but, no. That age when the US can do no wrong is in the past now. On the one hand you say the US doesn't have to tell us anything because it's international waters, but on the same post you say we should condemn what happened to the US drone because it happened inside our EEZ? Longest standing ally and yet oceanographic surveys were being conducted inside our EEZ without even informing us? Seriously? Not just a NO, but HELL NO.

In fact, one of our congressmen have even suggested condemning both China and the US for being inside our EEZ.
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Old 21 Dec 16, 19:50
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Originally Posted by GMan88 View Post
The silence from Manila? You mean, after we were informed AFTER the drone was seized that there was indeed a US ship OPERATING within our EEZ?

http://www.rappler.com/nation/155794...outh-china-sea
According to the link you provided, the Chinese vessel was a "submarine rescue vessel".

So the real question is why is a "submarine rescue vessel" in your EEZ? It's not a scientific research vessel like the Bowditch. It's purpose seems to be stuff just like this incident. Recovery, and in this case piracy.
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Old 21 Dec 16, 20:31
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Originally Posted by Gixxer86g View Post
According to the link you provided, the Chinese vessel was a "submarine rescue vessel".

So the real question is why is a "submarine rescue vessel" in your EEZ? It's not a scientific research vessel like the Bowditch. It's purpose seems to be stuff just like this incident. Recovery, and in this case piracy.
If I had to guess? It was following the Bowditch. "Passing through" as a passable excuse, as opposed to the Bowditch our supposed ally conducting oceanographic surveys of our EEZ without even the courtesy of letting us know.
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Old 22 Dec 16, 01:01
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If I had to guess? It was following the Bowditch. "Passing through" as a passable excuse, as opposed to the Bowditch our supposed ally conducting oceanographic surveys of our EEZ without even the courtesy of letting us know.
Good guess, that is exactly what it was doing.
But the rest of that post looks as if you are ready to ditch the US and jump into bed with China.
Not a great move, just ask Myanmar.

Look, tell Duerte to relax, if you can. It is a well-known fact that regimes friendly to the US are replaced by much worse and very hostile regimes (Cuba, Nicaragua, Iran, etc.) when Democrats are in Power in the US. But that will change in just one month.
If you guys are looking for a bigger and better deal, this is the perfect time. But lets not go all wonky just yet, okay?
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Old 22 Dec 16, 01:59
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Good guess, that is exactly what it was doing.
But the rest of that post looks as if you are ready to ditch the US and jump into bed with China.
Not a great move, just ask Myanmar.

Look, tell Duerte to relax, if you can. It is a well-known fact that regimes friendly to the US are replaced by much worse and very hostile regimes (Cuba, Nicaragua, Iran, etc.) when Democrats are in Power in the US. But that will change in just one month.
If you guys are looking for a bigger and better deal, this is the perfect time. But lets not go all wonky just yet, okay?
To be clear (and I've been saying so even here), I don't want to ditch the US. If it were up to me, and we were informed, I'd even gladly send a CG or navy cutter (the Hamilton, thanks) as a "companion/guide" and gladly intercepted the "piracy". BUT, to operate in our EEZ without even informing us and STILL EXPECT us to condemn the incident, sorry but that's too much for me.
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Old 22 Dec 16, 06:04
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Originally Posted by GMan88 View Post
To be clear (and I've been saying so even here), I don't want to ditch the US. If it were up to me, and we were informed, I'd even gladly send a CG or navy cutter (the Hamilton, thanks) as a "companion/guide" and gladly intercepted the "piracy". BUT, to operate in our EEZ without even informing us and STILL EXPECT us to condemn the incident, sorry but that's too much for me.
Gotcha. Scientific research is bad, piracy is OK.
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Old 22 Dec 16, 20:39
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Gotcha. Scientific research is bad, piracy is OK.


Can you not understand, telling us we don't need to be informed of oceanographic surveys of our EEZ because it's international waters and yet, because the incident happened in our EEZ therefore we should condemn it, IS NOT ACCEPTABLE?
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Old 23 Dec 16, 06:41
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Can you not understand, telling us we don't need to be informed of oceanographic surveys of our EEZ because it's international waters and yet, because the incident happened in our EEZ therefore we should condemn it, IS NOT ACCEPTABLE?
There is piracy occurring in your EEZ. Committed by a state, not privateers. Yet you focus on a research vessel. Fascinating.
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