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Go Back   Armchair General and HistoryNet >> The Best Forums in History > Military/History Related Hobbies > Alternate Timelines > Xtreme Alternate History

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Xtreme Alternate History Alternatives to History with No Holds Barred!

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  #1  
Old 18 Dec 16, 18:25
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Hypothetical Scenario: dirt poor nation vs. prosperous nation

First - YOU:

Imagine if you will, you are (present day) the popular and benevolent monarch of a dirt poor nation, governed democratically as a constitutional monarchy. You are mere symbol of your nation and can make no official decision regarding the direction of your nation except only in times of national crisis (war-natural disaster-etc.), but even still you need approval of your parliament/congress/whatever.

Second - Your Nation, People and Economy:

Your country is a Caribbean island of about 27,000 sq. kilometers (10,000 sq. miles) and your population is around 4.5 million...approximately halfway between Cuba and the continent of South America. You economy is highly dependent on foreign aid, though you do manage to attract some tourism which helps a lot. The main exports of your country is cheaply manufactured clothing and goods such as coconuts, bananas, pineapples, and the Caribbean staple: Rhum. Otherwise, most economies remain very localized and mainly agricultural. For trade with other nations, you rely almost solely on a 1960s era cargo vessel, kept in good operating order by the generosity of wealthy states who feel so sorry for you, this and they think you're cute with your one cargo boat that you've painted bright colors and named "Neptune". While education is good, unemployment is high. Not much of an industrial base to speak of other than one or two large scrap yards and a foundry. Plenty of DIY mechanics around to keep the junk cars and trucks moving, but they utilize very "Cuban" methods of improvisation and jerry-rigging. As you are a King with no real powers besides kissing babies and hugging people at public functions, you easily escape the criticism reserved for the ineffectual government and they love you dearly. Also, your people (some of whom in isolated villages are on the verge of burning sh*t for fuel), are highly patriotic and love their sh*thole island nation....because it's their sh*thole country and no one else's, so there!

To put it mildly, your country has barely two coins to rub together on a good day.

Third - Your Military:

It consists of about 20 antiquated artillery pieces dating from WW 2, some as old as WW 1....of varying calibers. You have about 40-50 shells for each gun. You have 14 aircraft, all vintage T-6 Texans, of which 9 are airworthy, the remaining 5 are used for spares. You also have 4 C-47s (2 airworthy). Tech and maintenance on all of these aircraft is adequate at best. Your navy consists of 3 Sotoyomo-class fleet tugs, donated to your nation by the US because it was cheaper to give them away than scrap or sink them. Surprisingly, they float and run well enough and are fully complemented with crews which are trained fairly well and are proud of their boats. Otherwise you have about 5 old fishing vessels converted as picket boats. Your army numbers about 14,000 - includes police - and is armed mostly with the US M-1 rifle and M-1 Carbine (WW 2 and Korea surplus). Of these 14,000 men, about 2 regiments (1st and 2nd) are decently trained well enough to take their rifles apart and put them together blindfolded, have basic combat training that one would find in a third world nation, and are properly attired with basic kit. In other words, they do look like and act like regular soldiers. A 3rd (albeit reduced) regiment kept in reserve, less well trained but able to support the first two acting mostly as logistic units. They are also the guys handling your 20 antique artillery pieces. They keep them clean at least. The remaining men do their best to keep order, direct traffic, mop the floors, cook the food, keep things running and etc.

Now I have you familiar with the above conditions here is the set-up -

Fourth - The Scenario:

On a beautiful summer afternoon, and for reasons completely unkown to you or your people, the nation of Mexico sends a modern destroyer your way. Inexplicably and completely without warning, this Mexican destroyer fires about a dozen shells into one of your coastal villages, destroying/damaging a few homes, an open-air market and a government building (we'll say it's a post office). About 30 civilians are killed, approximately 60 wounded, some badly. The Mexican ship turns and goes home (we'll say port of call - Tampico).

You and you nation are in complete shock. Your people are in the streets screaming for blood and your government gives you the powers to retaliate if you so choose to do so. Other world governments express shock, outrage and sympathy over the unprovoked attack...but other than words offer nothing. You are on your own. The only thing you DO know, is that news reports coming out apparently show the Mexican people are also very upset and disapprove of this action.

So, with the conditions set out and the scenario set in....what do you do? Do you retaliate as your people demand, with the military antiques at your disposal, or do you try something more covert, or perhaps asymmetrical? How?

Discuss!!

Yes, I'm bored...but I just re-watched one of my favorite Peter Sellers film, "The Mouse that Roared", and it got me thinking.
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Last edited by asterix; 18 Dec 16 at 18:59..
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  #2  
Old 18 Dec 16, 20:06
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both covert and asymmetrical approaches cost as much or more than conventional forces. Since you can't afford one, you won't have the others. Plus they require massive investments of time and money to develop.

You have no options. If you want options, you have to create and continually modernize those options long before they are needed.

Go and whine to the UN is about your only option.
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Old 18 Dec 16, 20:29
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The nation should have followed the example of Costa Rica and not made any attempt to maintain standing military forces. It would have saved money and in the event of military agression as described would certainly confer on the country the "High Moral Ground".

Thus, recourse to the UN would seem the only option. It's what the Security Council is for, after all.
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  #4  
Old 18 Dec 16, 21:27
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Clearly, the best move is political and economic rather than military. I'd start with:

Plaster the Internet and social media with photos and video of the attack. Include dead burnt babies and crying children in them. Hope it goes "viral."
Then get the world media to show up and do stories on it. Exaggerate the damage and dead by considerable numbers.
Whine to the UN about how Mexico started an unprovoked war. Demand aid.
Go on US media in particular and describe the attack as a "9/11" or a "Pearl Harbor." Use social media and the Internet to tie the attack to illegal immigration and stir up lots of resentment in the US of Mexico. Point out that the ship used was an ex-US Navy one (Mexico's only destroyer is an ex-US FRAM Gearing DD). Use that as a barb showing America sells arms to "aggressors." This will hopefully force the US to take our side and act against Mexico.
Show my own nation's military as patriotic and brave but ill-equipped and hopelessly outmatched.
Work to get hackers to actively attack Mexico's cyber systems relentlessly.
Find a way to work in an environmental angle and get all the Progressives in a twitter over the attack.

Use the available boats and such and start a refugee exodus towards the US. The intent is to place lots of our population there so they can send money back to the island and increase its economic wealth. Claim they are leaving a "War zone."
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  #5  
Old 04 Feb 17, 19:14
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Call up Putin and see if he wants to play a re-do of Cuba. He can mess with Mexico, a close ally of the US. Flex some military muscle in America's backyard and boost his standing with his base back home.
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Old 04 Feb 17, 20:35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hairog View Post
Call up Putin and see if he wants to play a re-do of Cuba. He can mess with Mexico, a close ally of the US. Flex some military muscle in America's backyard and boost his standing with his base back home.
Won't work. Russia's force projection is minimalistic.

We just saw their one light CV creakily chug around to the Med, a tug in attendance, and then limp back after losing two aircraft to landing errors.

They couldn't send military force into the Western Hemisphere without bases, and the US has a lock on every port in the hemisphere via treaty. Even if they found a port willing to take them, a single US CVN battlegroup would overshadow them.
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Old 04 Feb 17, 21:32
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Maybe the Chinese would instead. They have the forces, and they're really getting into seapower now.
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  #8  
Old 04 Feb 17, 22:46
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Arnold J Rimmer View Post
Won't work. Russia's force projection is minimalistic.

We just saw their one light CV creakily chug around to the Med, a tug in attendance, and then limp back after losing two aircraft to landing errors.

They couldn't send military force into the Western Hemisphere without bases, and the US has a lock on every port in the hemisphere via treaty. Even if they found a port willing to take them, a single US CVN battlegroup would overshadow them.
We are talking Mexico here. Not a naval powerhouse, not direct confrontation with the USN. It's an unprovoked attack on a helpless country with no Casus Belli.

How would the US justify becoming involve before some action by the Russians? Then how could we justify it even after?

Quote:
Russian Naval Expansion Threatens U.S. Influence in the Western Hemisphere
UKRAINE-RUSSIA-POLITICS-CRISIS-EU-ENERGY-PUTIN
Free Fire | April 21, 2016 | National Security Policy, South America

EmailPrint
On Wednesday, April 20, 2016, the New York Times reported that the most Russian attack submarines, in two decades, are patrolling the coastlines of “Scandinavia and Scotland, along with the Mediterranean Sea and the North Atlantic.” This increased area of patrols and the Russian’s build up of arms is approaching Cold War levels, and signals the increasingly competitive and uneasy relationship between the U.S. and Russia.

Along with increasing its patrol routes, the Russian government has been building up its number of attack submarines in its arsenal. The Putin government has “has spent billions of dollars for new classes of diesel and nuclear-powered attack submarines that are quieter, better armed and operated by more proficient crews than in the past.”

Russia’s activity within the Western Hemisphere has increased since the beginning of he Obama Administration. Russian activity in the Western Hemisphere first began with the sale of military equipment to Venezuela that soon transitioned into the two nations participating in joint naval exercises. It was believed that the Russia decision to launch the exercise came after the U.S. announced it would be reforming the 4th fleet to patrol the Caribbean.

This was a direct sign that Russia would not abide by U.S. norms. The U.S., since the early 1800s, has stated that it would allow no European powers to assert its influence in the Western Hemisphere. The Russians openly disregarded this by moving part of its fleet into South America.

Just a year after the Russian and Venezuelan naval exercise, the U.S. spotted Russian attack submarines patrolling off the coast of the U.S. The Russian subs made it 200 miles off the East coast of the U.S., operating in international waters. Press secretary Geoff Morrell stated, “It doesn’t cause any alarm within this building (referring to the Pentagon), it doesn’t pose any threat.”

Morrell may have downplayed the significance of this event, but he went on to say it appeared to be part of an effort “to project force around the world, or at least to take excursions around the world.” This force projection was a clear message to the U.S. that they are capable to operate anywhere around the world, even in the U.S.’s back yard.

Russian subs were detected operating incredibly close to U.S. data cables in 2015. While data cables near the U.S. coast commonly experience breaking or malfunctions, these cables are fixable within days. The fear from U.S. officials arose if the Russians cut a cable at extreme depths. The damages to these cables are much more difficult to find and fix, which could result in communications and internet access being down for weeks or even months.

In September of 2015, the Russian research vessel, Yantar, sailed into the Caribbean around the same time the U.S. sub the Wyoming docked in Scotland. The Yantar is equipped with cable cutting equipment, but more importantly it is believed to have been conducting anti-submarine warfare operations against U.S. ballistic missile submarines based at Kings Bay, Ga.

Russia has not just sought out a larger presence in the Western Hemisphere, but also Asia. Russia has engaged in joint naval exercises with China, and seeks to establish bases in Vietnam and Singapore. With the U.S. attempting to counter Chinese expansion in the South China Sea, the Russians may be looking to aid the Chinese.

Aside from expanding its naval presence, Russia has also sought to strengthen its relationships with South American governments. Outside of Venezuela, Russia has entered into discussions about using military bases with Nicaragua and Cuba. The Russian government has also sent military hardware to Argentina, Brazil, Columbia, Peru, and Ecuador. All of these efforts are made to increase Russian influence in the region, and at best turn these nations against the U.S.
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Old 04 Feb 17, 23:31
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Just saying. People who live in glass houses...

Quote:
8 sailors injured after landing mishap on USS Eisenhower
Barbara Starr-Profile-Image
By Barbara Starr, CNN Pentagon Correspondent
Updated 5:58 PM ET, Fri March 18, 2016
Quote:
Four pilots rescued after Navy jet crash off North Carolina coast released from hospital
POSTED 11:53 AM, MAY 26, 2016, BY WEB STAFF, UPDATED AT 08:34PM, MAY 27, 2016
Quote:
June 2, 2016 SMYRNA, Tenn. (WKRN) – A pilot was killed after a U.S. Navy Blue Angels jet crashed Thursday afternoon in Smyrna ahead of the Great Tennessee Airshow this weekend.
Quote:
August 15, 2016

PREMONT (KIII NEWS) - The U.S. Navy is investigating the crash of a Navy trainer out of Naval Air Station-Kingsville that happened Sunday night during a routine training mission. The pilot and student both ejected safely, landing in an open field near Highway 281 and County Road 432.
Quote:
2 Marine Pilots Stable After Jets Collide Off San Diego Coast
POSTED 2:38 PM, NOVEMBER 9, 2016, BY CNN WIRE, UPDATED AT 06:02PM, NOVEMBER 9, 2016
28 July: A United States Navy F/A-18C jet aircraft crashed near Marine Corps Air Ground Combat Center Twentynine Palms in Twentynine Palms, California, while on a training mission. The pilot, a major, was killed.[249]

15 January: Two United States Marines Sikorsky CH-53E Super Stallion helicopters collide off Oahu, Hawaii.[235]

18 May: A United States Boeing B-52 crashed on take-off from Andersen Air Force Base, Guam.[239]

28 July: A United States Navy F/A-18C jet aircraft crashed near Marine Corps Air Ground Combat Center Twentynine Palms in Twentynine Palms, California, while on a training mission. The pilot, a major, was killed.[249]

2 August: A United States Navy F/A-18C Hornet crashed during a training mission near Naval Air Station Fallon in Nevada. The aircraft was assigned to Marine Strike Fighter Squadron 232, based at Marine Corps Air Station Miramar in California, and had been on temporary assignment to the Strike Fighter Wing Pacific Detachment at Naval Air Station Fallon. The pilot was taken to Banner Churchill Regional Medical Center.[250]

20 September: A U.S. Air Force U-2 reconnaissance aircraft assigned to the 1st Reconnaissance Squadron of the 9th Reconnaissance Wing at Beale Air Force Base crashed in a rural area near the Sutter Buttes in Sutter County, California. The U-2 was on a training mission. One pilot was killed and another was injured. The crash, combined with hot weather conditions and wind, resulted in a 250-acre wildfire, which was extinguished by firefighters.[257]

22 September: An U.S. Marine Corps AV-8B crashed off the coast of Okinawa, Japan. 33rd Rescue Squadron together with JSDF rescued the pilot.[258]

26 October: USMC F/A-18C crashed near 29 Palms. The pilot ejected and survived. [265]

7 December: USMC single-seat F/A-18C Hornet piloted by Capt. Jake Fredrick crashed in the Pacific Ocean, about 120 miles southeast of Iwakuni, Japan. The pilot managed to escape but died after he ejected out of the plane. His body was found and identified next day. [267]

13 December: USMC MV-22B Osprey crashed on Tuesday in shallow water off Okinawa, Japan. All five crew members aboard the Osprey were rescued by the Air Force’s 33 rd Rescue Squadron at Kadena Air Base, Okinawa. [268]
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Old 05 Feb 17, 13:06
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Before trying to do anything it might be a good idea to find out why the Mexican ship attacked - was it in error (like the way in which the Bombay Marine once bombarded Dohah in mistake for Ras Al Kymer)? A rogue captain? Did the Mexican government authorise it? If so are they likely to do it again? Do they have demands? Your choices will depend very much on the answers (and also how much time you've got.
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Old 05 Feb 17, 13:19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hairog View Post
Just saying. People who live in glass houses...











28 July: A United States Navy F/A-18C jet aircraft crashed near Marine Corps Air Ground Combat Center Twentynine Palms in Twentynine Palms, California, while on a training mission. The pilot, a major, was killed.[249]

15 January: Two United States Marines Sikorsky CH-53E Super Stallion helicopters collide off Oahu, Hawaii.[235]

18 May: A United States Boeing B-52 crashed on take-off from Andersen Air Force Base, Guam.[239]

28 July: A United States Navy F/A-18C jet aircraft crashed near Marine Corps Air Ground Combat Center Twentynine Palms in Twentynine Palms, California, while on a training mission. The pilot, a major, was killed.[249]

2 August: A United States Navy F/A-18C Hornet crashed during a training mission near Naval Air Station Fallon in Nevada. The aircraft was assigned to Marine Strike Fighter Squadron 232, based at Marine Corps Air Station Miramar in California, and had been on temporary assignment to the Strike Fighter Wing Pacific Detachment at Naval Air Station Fallon. The pilot was taken to Banner Churchill Regional Medical Center.[250]

20 September: A U.S. Air Force U-2 reconnaissance aircraft assigned to the 1st Reconnaissance Squadron of the 9th Reconnaissance Wing at Beale Air Force Base crashed in a rural area near the Sutter Buttes in Sutter County, California. The U-2 was on a training mission. One pilot was killed and another was injured. The crash, combined with hot weather conditions and wind, resulted in a 250-acre wildfire, which was extinguished by firefighters.[257]

22 September: An U.S. Marine Corps AV-8B crashed off the coast of Okinawa, Japan. 33rd Rescue Squadron together with JSDF rescued the pilot.[258]

26 October: USMC F/A-18C crashed near 29 Palms. The pilot ejected and survived. [265]

7 December: USMC single-seat F/A-18C Hornet piloted by Capt. Jake Fredrick crashed in the Pacific Ocean, about 120 miles southeast of Iwakuni, Japan. The pilot managed to escape but died after he ejected out of the plane. His body was found and identified next day. [267]

13 December: USMC MV-22B Osprey crashed on Tuesday in shallow water off Okinawa, Japan. All five crew members aboard the Osprey were rescued by the Air Force’s 33 rd Rescue Squadron at Kadena Air Base, Okinawa. [268]

You forgot one...

34 US sailors killed by an oh gee we didn't know it was and US Navy vessel.

Not even a wave of the finger to the butt holes that did that and it's all but forgotten, if they even know about it by the American public.
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Old 05 Feb 17, 13:22
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Quote:
He can mess with Mexico, a close ally of the US
They may have been close but since we got an insane bull in the china shop all bets are off.
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  #13  
Old 05 Feb 17, 13:29
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I just did the ones from 2016.
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  #14  
Old 05 Feb 17, 13:37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by T. A. Gardner View Post
Maybe the Chinese would instead. They have the forces, and they're really getting into seapower now.
Tell it true...you know what that is right?

Your the most populated country and 2nd largest by mass. You have large quantity's of rare minerals with an educated workforce wanting more.

You have one of the longer coast lines in the world that is constantly patrol by what you see as hostile forces.

Would you be increasing your sea power? Well! would you?
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Old 06 Feb 17, 14:16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hairog View Post
We are talking Mexico here. Not a naval powerhouse, not direct confrontation with the USN. It's an unprovoked attack on a helpless country with no Casus Belli.

How would the US justify becoming involve before some action by the Russians? Then how could we justify it even after?
It is called the Monroe Doctrine.

Which basically says if it happens in the Western Hemisphere, it is our business.

The 20th Century is full of examples. The occupation of Haiti recently was just the most recent.
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