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Go Back   Armchair General and HistoryNet >> The Best Forums in History > Current Events > The Middle East > War in Iraq

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War in Iraq Operations Desert Storm, Iraqi Freedom and ongoing operations in the region.

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  #31  
Old 20 Oct 16, 07:13
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Increasing numbers of phone calls from inside Mosul are indicating that many of the Islamists are bailing out while they can, taking munitions with them, using commandeered trucks and trailers. - where to must be the worrying question.

Possibly Mosul is just too big to defend given their limited numbers
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  #32  
Old 20 Oct 16, 08:37
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If this is done properly - exit roads should be covered, just waiting for them.
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  #33  
Old 20 Oct 16, 08:51
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Originally Posted by Snowygerry View Post
If this is done properly - exit roads should be covered, just waiting for them.
Not too difficult to go off road around there and given that the perimeter is currently still about 30 km out there is about 184 km to cover
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  #34  
Old 20 Oct 16, 08:52
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All of you seem pretty well informed on what is actually going on. I'm south of what's going on up there but directly involved with supporting it, you seem to know pretty much everything I do.

Its going to continue to evolve, nothing ever ends here...
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  #35  
Old 20 Oct 16, 08:54
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Originally Posted by MarkV View Post
Not too difficult to go off road around there and given that the perimeter is currently still about 30 km out there is about 184 km to cover
They can really only try to make it to Syria, where else ?

Some locals can no doubt attempt to melt into the civilian population, but the foreigners ?
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  #36  
Old 20 Oct 16, 09:09
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Is the timing of this push tied to the U.S. presidential election?
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  #37  
Old 20 Oct 16, 09:35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkV View Post
Increasing numbers of phone calls from inside Mosul are indicating that many of the Islamists are bailing out while they can, taking munitions with them, using commandeered trucks and trailers. - where to must be the worrying question.

Possibly Mosul is just too big to defend given their limited numbers
Plus they can do more damage hitting and running than standing and dying.

Re-taking an abandoned and damaged (not to mention booby-trapped) city isn't all that great a victory.
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  #38  
Old 20 Oct 16, 09:49
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Originally Posted by Snowygerry View Post
They can really only try to make it to Syria, where else ?

Some locals can no doubt attempt to melt into the civilian population, but the foreigners ?
Across the border into Turkey and then back home to cause trouble there
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  #39  
Old 20 Oct 16, 09:55
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I doubt crossing the border to Turkey is as easy as it used to be.

There's no IS controlled border crossings anymore - either they'd have to move through Kurdish territory, or Turkish/allied militia, neither of them likely to be very friendly.

From what I hear there's even Turkish Army units at Mosul, who refuse to leave despite repeated demands from the Iraqi government to do so.

Edit: "foreigners" in this case apparently means Saudi's, Egyptians, Tunisians and other assorted French-North Africans for the most part, if anything they might try to reach Libya and attempt to cross from there ?
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  #40  
Old 20 Oct 16, 10:21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowygerry View Post
I doubt crossing the border to Turkey is as easy as it used to be.

There's no IS controlled border crossings anymore - either they'd have to move through Kurdish territory, or Turkish/allied militia, neither of them likely to be very friendly.

From what I hear there's even Turkish Army units at Mosul, who refuse to leave despite repeated demands from the Iraqi government to do so.

Edit: "foreigners" in this case apparently means Saudi's, Egyptians, Tunisians and other assorted French-North Africans for the most part, if anything they might try to reach Libya and attempt to cross from there ?
There were reports on he Beeb that a few hundred Daesh foreigners have already left. Turkey has a long long border.
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  #41  
Old 20 Oct 16, 10:27
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There were reports on he Beeb that a few hundred Daesh foreigners have already left. Turkey has a long long border.
Indeed - presumably that's why they would want to be at Mosul to intercept them there, rather then trying to cover the entire length of border.
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Old 20 Oct 16, 10:31
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Indeed - presumably that's why they would want to be at Mosul to intercept them there, rather then trying to cover the entire length of border.
I expect that they have plenty of sympathizers inside Turkey.
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Old 20 Oct 16, 11:27
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Problem with that approach is that you would need to have an enemy with limited supplies and actually cared about the civilian population trapped along with them. Also you would need to move fast enough with sufficient forces to impose an exfiltration proof perimeter.

The city of Mosul contains upwards 1,000,000 civilians and no more then 30,000 Al-Qaeda/ISIL fighters, they can easily last for years by confiscating all available food supplies immediately for themselves. Being who they are we know they could care less about the civilian population beyond controlling them. With their track record I'd say their food supply would only being exhausted when the last Mosul resident's body is no longer available to be cannibalized.

The Iraqi forces have not proven themselves to be an effective fighting force with the will and abilities necessary to move quickly enough to trap them in a siege. Being irregulars they can easily shave their beards and disappear into the throngs fleeing the city ahead of any encirclement. Our collective history since the start of "the war on terror" is that we allow the real Al-Qaeda fighters and leadership cadre to escape from battle, going back to the "Airlift of Evil" in Afghanistan. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kunduz_airlift (I know wikipedia is frowned on as a source, but the links to the relevant source material are there.)

The Establishment sees Al-Qaeda/ISIL as a geopolitical tool and our "asset", the most likely desired outcome is to simply redirect them back onto the goal of "regime change" in Syria.

{Foreign Affairs- March 9, 2015 Middle EastSecurity
Accepting Al Qaeda
The Enemy of the United States' Enemy
By Barak Mendelsohn

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2015-03-09/accepting-al-qaeda}

{POLITICO: Brzezinski: Obama should retaliate if Russia doesn't stop attacking U.S. assets

By Nick Gass

10/05/15 02:37 PM EDT

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/zbigniew-brzezinski-financial-times-op-ed-obama-retaliate-russia-214438}
I find it to be a mistake to view those civilians living in ISIL lands as civilians...with exception to children the so called civilians are supporters of ISIL and while they might not have military training.....the word civilian should not be used to describe someone who approves what ISIL does...these civilians are in fact ISIL enablers. In fact an ISIL supporter is not a civilized person, so in this sense its impossible to call any adult of sound mind who supports ISIL as a civilian. US politicians such as Brzezinski were and are men of their time....its understandable that they harbor anti Russian views. But the better US politicians such as FDR are rolling in their grave when they see that the USA is not working more with Russia to defeat ISIL.


Yes, make no mistake many of the ISIL members are cowards who do not show their faces in videos...So it wont surprise me to see ISIL members fleeing ISIL lands when the Iraqi army comes in. Its the same tactic that Third Reich members and allies of the Reich used...they will dress like women to flee. ...kind of like rats fleeing a sinking ship.
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  #44  
Old 20 Oct 16, 12:33
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Plus they can do more damage hitting and running than standing and dying.

Re-taking an abandoned and damaged (not to mention booby-trapped) city isn't all that great a victory.
It would be a pretty great victory, given that it would mean the Islamic State would have lost yet another city, and a large and important one. Even if it should be a sea of ruins, it would no longer be a place flying that flag.

Which ties in with your first paragraph above. Yes, sure, you are right - but that amounts to reverting to the MO of previous, older organizations. No control of a territory, no claim to statehood, which was much of what they are about, as their chosen name shows.
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Old 20 Oct 16, 13:05
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Originally Posted by Stonewall_Jack View Post
I find it to be a mistake to view those civilians living in ISIL lands as civilians...with exception to children the so called civilians are supporters of ISIL and while they might not have military training.....the word civilian should not be used to describe someone who approves what ISIL does...these civilians are in fact ISIL enablers. In fact an ISIL supporter is not a civilized person, so in this sense its impossible to call any adult of sound mind who supports ISIL as a civilian. US politicians such as Brzezinski were and are men of their time....its understandable that they harbor anti Russian views. But the better US politicians such as FDR are rolling in their grave when they see that the USA is not working more with Russia to defeat ISIL.


Yes, make no mistake many of the ISIL members are cowards who do not show their faces in videos...So it wont surprise me to see ISIL members fleeing ISIL lands when the Iraqi army comes in. Its the same tactic that Third Reich members and allies of the Reich used...they will dress like women to flee. ...kind of like rats fleeing a sinking ship.
What nonsense - under that so called logic the civilian inhabitants of France, Belgium, Netherlands etc etc in 1940 -44 would all be Nazi enablers
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