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Go Back   Armchair General and HistoryNet >> The Best Forums in History > Current Events > The Middle East > War in Iraq

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War in Iraq Operations Desert Storm, Iraqi Freedom and ongoing operations in the region.

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  #16  
Old 18 Oct 16, 11:28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Michele View Post
Possibly slim to none, but the Iraqis might be willing for a long siege. If all that remains of the IS is one city, albeit large, where you live under siege with the enemy at the gates, it might be that the IS becomes a bit less appealing to potential recruits.
Or more, depending upon the spin. The cult of death is very grim in its outlook, and there is a dark romance to the band of brothers standing against all the world.
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  #17  
Old 18 Oct 16, 13:52
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Originally Posted by PhilipLaos View Post
The Iraqi political leadership and army say they will do everything possible to protect civilians in Mosul, including not allowing Shia militias into the city.

However, look at the Russian and Syrian brutal assault on Aleppo, in which they have been bombing indiscriminately, hitting hospitals, schools, mosques and killing thousands of civilians and hundreds of children, in order to eliminate just a few hundred rebel fighters. That has been going on for many weeks and they still haven't captured the city.

Mosul is much larger with a Sunni population of over 1 million and maybe more that 5,000 ISIS fighters. If the Russian and Syrians haven't been able to take Aleppo, even by practically leveling the city and with their lack of concern for civilians, what are the chances of the Iraqi army capturing Mosul while protecting civilians?

This is going to be awful.


Philip
Not that it won't still be awful but the US will likely exert a moderating influence on the Iraqi Army. I don't think we will see barrel bombs etc but precision stuff like Brimstone. The cost of that will be much higher casualties in the Iraqis going in, block by block, to clear the city on foot.
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  #18  
Old 18 Oct 16, 14:20
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One thing that we need to prepare for is the anti Iraq viewpoint that will most likely come out of Mosul when the Iraqi army is in the process of securing Mosul. Make no mistake those many many civilians who are living in ISIL lands are supporters of ISIL. Folks must keep this in mind when some report comes out claiming that pro ISIL civilians are being mistreated....thats the same as the reports that claim that Third Reich civilians were mistreated by the Russians, Americans and other allies.

Not saying I approve of revenge, but the civilians living in Mosul are supporters of ISIL and we must keep this in mind. Just imagine how you would react if your home was stolen, your wife raped, your kids murdered, your family and friends enslaved.....
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  #19  
Old 18 Oct 16, 14:25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 101combatvet View Post
Level it, nothing there worth saving.
The US trained and backed Iraqi army is going in to liberate Mosul. Its going to get ugly....imagine the sights of the Battle of Berlin WW2.. Its ugly but their are good guys and bad guys. Good guys then were the Soviets, good guys now are the Iraqi army.
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Old 18 Oct 16, 14:28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PhilipLaos View Post
The Iraqi political leadership and army say they will do everything possible to protect civilians in Mosul, including not allowing Shia militias into the city.

However, look at the Russian and Syrian brutal assault on Aleppo, in which they have been bombing indiscriminately, hitting hospitals, schools, mosques and killing thousands of civilians and hundreds of children, in order to eliminate just a few hundred rebel fighters. That has been going on for many weeks and they still haven't captured the city.

Mosul is much larger with a Sunni population of over 1 million and maybe more that 5,000 ISIS fighters. If the Russian and Syrians haven't been able to take Aleppo, even by practically leveling the city and with their lack of concern for civilians, what are the chances of the Iraqi army capturing Mosul while protecting civilians?

This is going to be awful.


Philip
Russia and Syria did not launch a brutal assault on Aleppo. Whats brutal about Aleppo are the ISIL like rebel groups who have slave markets. Thats right, actual slave markets here in 2016. I disagree with warfare and prefer peace...but something has to be done about Aleppo and its nice to see that someone, aka the Russians, are doing something to fight back.
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  #21  
Old 18 Oct 16, 19:49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stonewall_Jack View Post
Russia and Syria did not launch a brutal assault on Aleppo. Whats brutal about Aleppo are the ISIL like rebel groups who have slave markets. Thats right, actual slave markets here in 2016. I disagree with warfare and prefer peace...but something has to be done about Aleppo and its nice to see that someone, aka the Russians, are doing something to fight back.
Have you any evidence of a slave market in Aleppo as opposed to say Raqqa? And why would that justify breaking every rule of war in targeting hospitals? Even if your opponent is an evil uncivilised barbarian it doesn't justify in any way adopting evil uncivilised tactics. And Syria and Russia are launching brutal assaults and there is nothing nice about it except possibly to the sick of mind. There are thousands of kids being bombed . sometimes in their play grounds it is perverted to say that that is nice.
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  #22  
Old 18 Oct 16, 20:55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkV View Post
Killing thousand upon thousands of innocent civilians including large numbers of children, wrecking a vital part of the country's infrastructure and probably failing to kill many Daish fighters. Thank you for a characteristically brilliant suggestion - any more? Don't be shy.
Not much left to save, you should go there sometime to see for yourself.
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  #23  
Old 19 Oct 16, 01:18
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Al Qaeda fires its hell cannons and rockets from sites around the 'hospitals'. In Western Aleppo thousands of civilians have been killed by Salafist indirect fire. Its a war for survival. There are no rules. Prisoners are not taken, torture is a given.
They sowed the wind, and now they are going to reap the whirlwind
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  #24  
Old 19 Oct 16, 10:19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkV View Post
Have you any evidence of a slave market in Aleppo as opposed to say Raqqa? And why would that justify breaking every rule of war in targeting hospitals? Even if your opponent is an evil uncivilised barbarian it doesn't justify in any way adopting evil uncivilised tactics. And Syria and Russia are launching brutal assaults and there is nothing nice about it except possibly to the sick of mind. There are thousands of kids being bombed . sometimes in their play grounds it is perverted to say that that is nice.
I already said I do not like warfare and I want peace between people. During WW2 the Third Reich bombed London, and also sought to exterminate all Jews and Gypsies. So in response to that the Soviet Union, USA, UK, China and the other allies took warfare to the third reich...it was unfortunate but it had to happen. Its also unfortunate that warfare must be taken to ISIL as well as the ISIL like so called rebel groups such as Al Nursa Front. ISIL and the ISIL like groups are just like the Third Reich...these are the bad guys.. Russia and Syria are not the bad guys.

Note the groups involved in Aleppo..some of those groups are pretty much pro slavery.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle...2%80%93present)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Nusra_Front

Al Nursa front is a heinous group and IMO its not right to criticize what Russia is doing wrt helping the people of Syria. Syrian people have every right to fight back, and to fight against these AL Nursa type folks. Now the criticisms of Russia remind me of folks criticizing US actions in Syria and Afghanistan as well as criticisms of the allies of ww2. I dont find Russia to be committing war crimes in Syria just as I dont find that the Allies committed war crimes during WW2.
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  #25  
Old 19 Oct 16, 10:24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PhilipLaos View Post
(...) However, look at the Russian and Syrian brutal assault on Aleppo, in which they have been bombing indiscriminately, hitting hospitals, schools, mosques and killing thousands of civilians and hundreds of children, in order to eliminate just a few hundred rebel fighters. That has been going on for many weeks and they still haven't captured the city.

This is going to be awful.


Philip
One difference may the level of support the defenders get from the civilians, up to half of the defenders of Mosul or foreigners apparently, there are indications of civilians being forcibly held inside the city even.

In Aleppo it seems to be the locals and militias are the same.
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Old 19 Oct 16, 13:23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkV View Post
Quote:
Under current law, the U.S. government is only allowed to send weapons to internationally recognized sovereign governments not to autonomous regions within countries like Kurdistan. Since they cannot receive U.S. equipment directly, the Kurds must wait for the central government in Baghdad to share it
An attempt to amend this was voted down by the Republican majority in Congress. Clinton has intimated that if she wins and the Democrats also regain control on Capitol Hill there will be another effort to arm the Kurds
There can be an argument made for not amending this law. It might not look good for the US Government to be substantively supporting non-government military groups, especially if they're opposing recognized governments. It might make the US look like the Russians in eastern Ukraine.

Besides, what will be the US Gov't's criteria for supporting one insurgent group as opposed to another? That kind of thing can get sloppy real quick.
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Old 19 Oct 16, 13:40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eddie3rar View Post
Al Qaeda fires its hell cannons and rockets from sites around the 'hospitals'. In Western Aleppo thousands of civilians have been killed by Salafist indirect fire. Its a war for survival. There are no rules. Prisoners are not taken, torture is a given.
They sowed the wind, and now they are going to reap the whirlwind
Not if they want US aid and air support.
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Old 19 Oct 16, 17:45
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Here is the video that one must watch...if they are interested in the middle east.


To see that peace loving Syrian Christians and Muslims are saying to watch out for the so called Rebel groups in Syria is something important to keep in mind. The SAA includes Christian and Muslims fighting side by side, while the ISIL like rebel groups are cutting the heads off of Muslims and Christians who cherish Freedom....



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Old 19 Oct 16, 22:53
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Escape2Victory View Post
Who wants to walk into that? If time wasn't a factor, it would make more sense to place Mosul under siege. The cynic in me says the US is driving for success on a timetable in keeping with the US election.
The same thing occurred to me.
After all this time, they should be able to make some progress ... but we'll see.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Arnold J Rimmer View Post
Not if they want US aid and air support.
With the ROEs they have, I doubt they could bomb anything in the whole city.
... unless Hillary starts losing in the polls.
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Old 20 Oct 16, 07:52
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Food for thought

Quote:
Originally Posted by Escape2Victory View Post
Who wants to walk into that? If time wasn't a factor, it would make more sense to place Mosul under siege. The cynic in me says the US is driving for success on a timetable in keeping with the US election.
Problem with that approach is that you would need to have an enemy with limited supplies and actually cared about the civilian population trapped along with them. Also you would need to move fast enough with sufficient forces to impose an exfiltration proof perimeter.

The city of Mosul contains upwards 1,000,000 civilians and no more then 30,000 Al-Qaeda/ISIL fighters, they can easily last for years by confiscating all available food supplies immediately for themselves. Being who they are we know they could care less about the civilian population beyond controlling them. With their track record I'd say their food supply would only being exhausted when the last Mosul resident's body is no longer available to be cannibalized.

The Iraqi forces have not proven themselves to be an effective fighting force with the will and abilities necessary to move quickly enough to trap them in a siege. Being irregulars they can easily shave their beards and disappear into the throngs fleeing the city ahead of any encirclement. Our collective history since the start of "the war on terror" is that we allow the real Al-Qaeda fighters and leadership cadre to escape from battle, going back to the "Airlift of Evil" in Afghanistan. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kunduz_airlift (I know wikipedia is frowned on as a source, but the links to the relevant source material are there.)

The Establishment sees Al-Qaeda/ISIL as a geopolitical tool and our "asset", the most likely desired outcome is to simply redirect them back onto the goal of "regime change" in Syria.

{Foreign Affairs- March 9, 2015 Middle EastSecurity
Accepting Al Qaeda
The Enemy of the United States' Enemy
By Barak Mendelsohn

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2015-03-09/accepting-al-qaeda}

{POLITICO: Brzezinski: Obama should retaliate if Russia doesn't stop attacking U.S. assets

By Nick Gass

10/05/15 02:37 PM EDT

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/zbigniew-brzezinski-financial-times-op-ed-obama-retaliate-russia-214438}
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