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Go Back   Armchair General and HistoryNet >> The Best Forums in History > Current Events > The Middle East > War in Iraq

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War in Iraq Operations Desert Storm, Iraqi Freedom and ongoing operations in the region.

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  #1  
Old 17 Oct 16, 11:13
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Push to Mosul

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...6a6_story.html

It seems a push onto Mosul has begun (the final one?). As always,doubts and questions about the endgame almost crowd out the actual news from the frontlines.
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  #2  
Old 17 Oct 16, 11:15
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Could be a slog 'till Christmas though -

strange, I expected a simultaneous push to Raqqa on account of the Russians and Syrians - a new "race to Berlin" maybe ?
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Old 17 Oct 16, 12:55
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Originally Posted by Snowygerry View Post
Could be a slog 'till Christmas though -

strange, I expected a simultaneous push to Raqqa on account of the Russians and Syrians - a new "race to Berlin" maybe ?
A push on Raqqa could well result in displaced foreign fighters going home - quite a number to places within the Russian Federation - something Putin does not want. I suspect he's quite happy for them to stay in Syria killing Syrians.
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Old 18 Oct 16, 02:47
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Likely to be horrible for those troops going in, booby traps everywhere, child soldiers, suicide bombers. Glad our troops aren't doing it. It may take time but it seems ISIS will be defeated, at least in the short term.

Moving ahead a little, the armies converging on Mosul are natural enemies with competing agendas. Turks, Iraqis, Kurds, different religions and ethnic tribes and peoples. The defeat of ISIS may usher in a new phase of the conflict as these groups come into contact in the Mosul region and compete for influence and revenge.
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Old 18 Oct 16, 03:26
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I wouldn't be surprised if America's halfhearted air support doesn't see the Iraqis get so badly chewed up the whole push stalls and turns to disaster. After two years of ISIS Mosul would be tunnelled like Cu Chi. Wall to wall UAVs will hopefully make a difference but the Iraqis struggled to take Ramadi.
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Old 18 Oct 16, 06:05
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Originally Posted by eddie3rar View Post
I wouldn't be surprised if America's halfhearted air support doesn't see the Iraqis get so badly chewed up the whole push stalls and turns to disaster. After two years of ISIS Mosul would be tunnelled like Cu Chi. Wall to wall UAVs will hopefully make a difference but the Iraqis struggled to take Ramadi.
Who wants to walk into that? If time wasn't a factor, it would make more sense to place Mosul under siege. The cynic in me says the US is driving for success on a timetable in keeping with the US election.
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Old 18 Oct 16, 07:25
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Pics on the news showed the Kurd Peshmerga taking 5 out of 10 villagers on the approach to Mosul, losing 5 dead on the first day. What struck me was how crap their gear was, where did all the international aid go? Old T 62 tanks without one tile of reactive armour. It wouldn't have blown the U.S defence budget to have at least given them some of that stuff considering they will face men who killed Abram tanks with ATGWs when they took the place
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Old 18 Oct 16, 08:10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eddie3rar View Post
Pics on the news showed the Kurd Peshmerga taking 5 out of 10 villagers on the approach to Mosul, losing 5 dead on the first day. What struck me was how crap their gear was, where did all the international aid go? Old T 62 tanks without one tile of reactive armour. It wouldn't have blown the U.S defence budget to have at least given them some of that stuff considering they will face men who killed Abram tanks with ATGWs when they took the place
IIRC, no direct aid is allowed to given to the Kurds. Everything has to go through the Iraqi National Government and they decide what to pass on to the Kurds. Seeing as how they hate the Kurds population, they are probably lucky they get bullets.
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Old 18 Oct 16, 08:21
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IIRC, no direct aid is allowed to given to the Kurds. Everything has to go through the Iraqi National Government and they decide what to pass on to the Kurds. Seeing as how they hate the Kurds population, they are probably lucky they get bullets.
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Under current law, the U.S. government is only allowed to send weapons to internationally recognized sovereign governments not to autonomous regions within countries like Kurdistan. Since they cannot receive U.S. equipment directly, the Kurds must wait for the central government in Baghdad to share it
An attempt to amend this was voted down by the Republican majority in Congress. Clinton has intimated that if she wins and the Democrats also regain control on Capitol Hill there will be another effort to arm the Kurds
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Old 18 Oct 16, 10:47
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Level it, nothing there worth saving.
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Old 18 Oct 16, 10:51
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Level it, nothing there worth saving.
Killing thousand upon thousands of innocent civilians including large numbers of children, wrecking a vital part of the country's infrastructure and probably failing to kill many Daish fighters. Thank you for a characteristically brilliant suggestion - any more? Don't be shy.
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Old 18 Oct 16, 10:59
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Originally Posted by eddie3rar View Post
I wouldn't be surprised if America's halfhearted air support doesn't see the Iraqis get so badly chewed up the whole push stalls and turns to disaster. After two years of ISIS Mosul would be tunnelled like Cu Chi. Wall to wall UAVs will hopefully make a difference but the Iraqis struggled to take Ramadi.
Why spend the money? It isn't our fight.

Better to give the Iraqis just enough to keep ISIS in place and fighting. If they get forced out, they will just cause trouble elsewhere.

Sometimes it is better to just contain, rather than eliminate. It isn't as if we are losing any friends.
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Old 18 Oct 16, 11:02
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An attempt to amend this was voted down by the Republican majority in Congress. Clinton has intimated that if she wins and the Democrats also regain control on Capitol Hill there will be another effort to arm the Kurds
A bit difficult given that that will be illegal. And that even when a minority the GOP's unity has blocked DNP efforts to get bills passed. Our control over key committees will not be affected by the coming elections

Hillary's term is already been bought and paid for. If she wins her agenda will have already been decided by others.
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Old 18 Oct 16, 11:05
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The Iraqi political leadership and army say they will do everything possible to protect civilians in Mosul, including not allowing Shia militias into the city.

However, look at the Russian and Syrian brutal assault on Aleppo, in which they have been bombing indiscriminately, hitting hospitals, schools, mosques and killing thousands of civilians and hundreds of children, in order to eliminate just a few hundred rebel fighters. That has been going on for many weeks and they still haven't captured the city.

Mosul is much larger with a Sunni population of over 1 million and maybe more that 5,000 ISIS fighters. If the Russian and Syrians haven't been able to take Aleppo, even by practically leveling the city and with their lack of concern for civilians, what are the chances of the Iraqi army capturing Mosul while protecting civilians?

This is going to be awful.


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Old 18 Oct 16, 11:21
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The Iraqi political leadership and army say they will do everything possible to protect civilians in Mosul, including not allowing Shia militias into the city.

However, look at the Russian and Syrian brutal assault on Aleppo, in which they have been bombing indiscriminately, hitting hospitals, schools, mosques and killing thousands of civilians and hundreds of children, in order to eliminate just a few hundred rebel fighters. That has been going on for many weeks and they still haven't captured the city.

Mosul is much larger with a Sunni population of over 1 million and maybe more that 5,000 ISIS fighters. If the Russian and Syrians haven't been able to take Aleppo, even by practically leveling the city and with their lack of concern for civilians, what are the chances of the Iraqi army capturing Mosul while protecting civilians?
Possibly slim to none, but the Iraqis might be willing for a long siege. If all that remains of the IS is one city, albeit large, where you live under siege with the enemy at the gates, it might be that the IS becomes a bit less appealing to potential recruits.
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