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Go Back   Armchair General and HistoryNet >> The Best Forums in History > Current Events > Russia, Central Asia, and The Caucasus > Ukrainian Crisis

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Ukrainian Crisis Discuss the unfolding crisis in Ukraine.

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  #46  
Old 11 Aug 16, 14:26
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International monitors find no evidence to back #Russia's claim of a firefight or Ukrainian incursion into #Crimea
Source


As someone was quick to point out in a response to the source's post, "could not confirm" is not the same as "finding no evidence".

Here is the original OSCE SMM Ukraine report, with the relevant sections about Crimea posted here:
The SMM noted a decrease in the number of ceasefire violations recorded in Donetsk region compared with the day before but an increase in Luhansk region, where most of the violations were assessed as training related. The SMM confirmed reports of civilian deaths and injuries. It continued to monitor the withdrawal of weapons. The SMM observed the presence of armoured combat vehicles in the security zone. The Mission monitored in the proposed disengagement area near Zolote. The Mission monitors observed the presence of mines and mine warning signs in areas close to the contact line. It monitored border areas not under government control. The SMM continued to monitor the situation at three crossing points at the administrative boundary line between the mainland and Crimea. None of the SMMís interlocutors could confirm media reports of security incidents involving shooting or military activities in the vicinity of the administrative boundary line.

...

The SMM continued to monitor the situation at three crossing points at the administrative boundary line between the mainland and Crimea. The SMM observed that all three crossing points at Kalanchak, Chaplynka and Chonhar (67km, 72km and 167km south-east of Kherson, respectively) were open on 10 August. At Kalanchak, at 12:15hrs on 10 August the SMM observed slow moving traffic crossing in both directions. The driver of one car told the SMM that he had been waiting about 13 hours to cross to Crimea. The border guard commander at Kalanchak told the SMM that the Crimean side was opened for traffic at 04:30 closed at 08:00 and was reopened at 11:20 on 10 August. The SMM observed minimal traffic at Chaplynka, where the border guard commander said that the Crimean side had opened at 07:00 on 10 August. Travellers that had crossed from Crimea told the SMM that their vehicles had been checked thoroughly on the Crimean side of the Kalanchak and Chaplynka crossing points. At Chonhar on the afternoon of 10 August the SMM observed **Ė in the space of an hour ***Ė eleven vehicles crossing to Crimea and seven in the opposite direction. The SMM visited the Ukrainian border guard position close to the administrative boundary line at Cape Kutara (125km south-east of Kherson) and found the situation calm without indications of increased alert. None of the SMMís interlocutors could confirm media reports of security incidents involving shooting or military activities in the vicinity of the administrative boundary line.
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  #47  
Old 12 Aug 16, 05:58
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Ukrainian Foreign Ministry: "Russia launches a new hybrid special operation to justify occupation of Crimea and further aggressive actions against Ukraine"
https://lenta.ru/articles/2016/08/12/bombit/
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  #48  
Old 12 Aug 16, 11:27
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New Russian Hardware in Crimea

New jets deployed at Bel'bek airfield, Crimea via @Ald_Aba
Source


#Russia 55Zh6-1 Nebo UYe / Tall Rack 3-Dimensional Surveillance Radar in Belbek AB #Crimea
Source



Along with plenty of reports of more equipment and convoys going into Crimea.

Ukrainian gov is predictable about its response and is very alarmist about the "build up" - though I saw a recent comment from a Ukrainian gov source claiming that the Russian build up was not enough to actually invade the country.
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  #49  
Old 12 Aug 16, 12:33
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The last time it was after the Winter Olympics......
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  #50  
Old 12 Aug 16, 13:54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Daemon of Decay View Post
New jets deployed at Bel'bek airfield, Crimea via @Ald_Aba
An image from Yandex.Maps:


I doubt it was taken today or yesterday. As an open info says the airfield is used by a Russian 38 Fighter Regiment with 2 or 3 dozens of airplanes.
Generally speaking I don't think that any conclusions from two shots with just a part of airfield on them.
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  #51  
Old 12 Aug 16, 13:59
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Russian sources release the name of alleged coordinator of sabotage group in Crimea. It is said that he is certain captain Vladimir Serdyuk - an officer of Ukrainian 37 Motor Infantry Battalion. Also more details on composition of the group:
http://tass.ru/proisshestviya/3533812
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  #52  
Old 12 Aug 16, 14:12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Artyom_A View Post
An image from Yandex.Maps:


I doubt it was taken today or yesterday. As an open info says the airfield is used by a Russian 38 Fighter Regiment with 2 or 3 dozens of airplanes.
Generally speaking I don't think that any conclusions from two shots with just a part of airfield on them.
About the only explanation I could think of would be that those planes are new arrivals, and not some of the ones we've seen there from the past... but that is far from certain, and I posted the source so one could be sure just who was making such a claim.

We know the airfield had been hosting Russian jets for a while. Here is a Getty Images picture from 2 months ago showing Russian jets at the airfield (Information given says "Russian aircraft at a military airfield in the village of Belbek near Sevastopol. Vladimir Smirnov/TASS").



So at best the physical planes may be new, but the airfield has been host to Russian planes for a while now. Unless I am mistaken about Bel'bek and Belbek airfields being the same thing, of course...
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  #53  
Old 12 Aug 16, 14:19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Artyom_A View Post
Russian sources release the name of alleged coordinator of sabotage group in Crimea. It is said that he is certain captain Vladimir Serdyuk - an officer of Ukrainian 37 Motor Infantry Battalion. Also more details on composition of the group:
http://tass.ru/proisshestviya/3533812
You can expect this to develop just like we've seen in the past: one side will present "obvious evidence", the other side will claim it is an "obvious fabrication", and it will go back and forth.

The conspiracy theorists on the Ukraine side are already calling this an attempt by Russia justify a military invasion / put diplomatic pressure on Ukraine.

The Russian side, for their part, are ramping up the accusations of Ukraine being a terrorist state, of undermining the peace agreements, and of trying to provoke a reaction from Russia.
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-- Philip Gordon, 2015
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  #54  
Old 12 Aug 16, 16:06
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Video posted claiming to be interrogation of a Ukrainian saboteur.



No English translation available yet.

More from TASS (in Russian). Will need to see an English translation made soon for others to follow along.
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  #55  
Old 13 Aug 16, 05:50
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Panic!Panic!Panic!
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  #56  
Old 13 Aug 16, 14:27
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Chief of Ukrainian border service: Russia has employed prohibited laser weapons against Ukrainian border guards in Donbass: three men are partly blinded
http://echo.msk.ru/news/1819472-echo.html

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  #57  
Old 15 Aug 16, 05:12
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Russian Foreign Minister: Russia is not interested in breaking diplomatic relations with Ukraine, yet can employ it as a last resort:
https://lenta.ru/news/2016/08/15/no_intention/
At the same time Mr. Lavrov hints that Russia can release additional evidences on terrorist attacks in Crimea.
http://ria.ru/politics/20160815/1474352887.html
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  #58  
Old 17 Aug 16, 15:58
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Russian security service disclosed additional information on recent incidents in Crimea including names of killed Russian men
https://www.rt.com/politics/356241-r...-by-ukrainian/
An interesting detail in the story is 3 men captured in the first contact, still no names or other details. The Russian tactics is apparently to release information by portions.

Last edited by Artyom_A; 17 Aug 16 at 16:04..
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Old 28 Aug 16, 16:03
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A murder of a local girl sparks unrest and clashes between villagers and Roma migrants in Odessa region of Ukraine:
http://ukropnews24.com/in-loshchyniv...-roma-witness/
http://en.reporter-ua.ru/outraged-by...-eviction.html
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Old 04 Sep 16, 11:54
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The office of Ukrainian "Inter" TV-channel in Kiev is set on fire allegedly as a result of attack by Ukrainian patriots:
http://censor.net.ua/news/404432/int...oreportajvideo
http://lb.ua/news/2016/09/04/344337_...elekanala.html
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