HistoryNet.com RSS
ArmchairGeneral.com RSS

HistoryNet.com Articles
America's Civil War
American History
Aviation History
Civil War Times
MHQ
Military History
Vietnam
Wild West
World War II

ACG Online
ACG Magazine
Stuff We Like
War College
History News
Tactics 101
Carlo D'Este
Books

ACG Gaming
Boardgames
PC Game Reviews

ACG Network
Contact Us
Our Newsletter
Meet Our Staff
Advertise With Us

Sites We Support
HistoryNet.com
StreamHistory.com
Once A Marine
The Art of Battle
Game Squad
Mil. History Podcast
Russian Army - WW2
Achtung Panzer!
Mil History Online

Go Back   Armchair General and HistoryNet >> The Best Forums in History > Military/History Related Hobbies > Alternate Timelines > Xtreme Alternate History

Notices and Announcements

Xtreme Alternate History Alternatives to History with No Holds Barred!

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 04 Jun 16, 16:38
Frtigern's Avatar
Frtigern Frtigern is offline
Major General
United_States
5 Year Service Ribbon Most Significant/Influential Tank Campaign Most Significant/Influential Fighter Campaign Most Significant/Influential Multi-Role Aircraft C 
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Stateside
Posts: 2,919
Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300] Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300] Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300] Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300] Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300] Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300] Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300] Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300] Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300] Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300] Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300] Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300] Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300]
Outbreak! The Military Response to Zombies

Background

First Stage
An infectious disease doctor travels from Kisangani, Democratic Republic of the Congo to Atlanta (or whichever large international airport in respective countries). Within a month he flies to Chicago, New York, Los Angeles, Dallas/Fort Worth, Miami, San Francisco, and Seattle. What he doesnít know is that he has been carrying an unknown type of virus that infects the nervous system and causes host to become extremely aggressive towards other hosts of the same species via airborne transmission. Since it didnít display the rapid effects of an airborne virus he thought it only spread through bodily fluids. With this he takes a sample stateside for further study, unaware that he now had the virus. Finding no conclusive answer at his lab, he travels to different labs to get answers on its identification, origin and cure. By the time he reaches Seattle he finally succumbs as the second stage of the virus takes hold.

Second Stage
As the virus incubates through its hosts, using the hosts respiratory system to further infect more hosts, it makes the host more violent each week until third or fourth week where drastically alters nervous system. The second stage is markedly faster as it forces host to bite other victims. This way of transmission causes next host to also become second stage. Transmission is still airborne but fluid exchange is much faster. Physically, there is no change. If host is able, they are able to move their muscles the same as they were uninfected. Diet changes to sustain vitality. Host identifies healthy red meat and digestible carbohydrates and consumes them when no new hosts are around. It also drinks water when thirsty and sleeps when tired but no pattern can be found from eating, drinking or sleeping.
Conclusion
Second stage continues until no new hosts can be found. Smelling is increased 10 fold to help infected find other hosts. Once no new hosts are found they stop eating and drinking and die.

Your mission
As Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or equivalent in other countries, you are to decide how to respond to this outbreak. Do you focus on quarantine or offensively taking on the outbreak? Do you employ any special equipment or tactics or do you simply put a bullet in the head? Which units do you deploy or how would you alert deployable units to prevent them from getting infected themselves? What partnerships, if any, do you form to more effectively deal with the outbreak? What contingencies do plan for any how do you best overcome them? What to do with evacuated and screened population? What logistics will you need? Make your plan as specific as possible, but remember you want to minimize civilian casualties.

Screening
Since the doctor traveled around to different cities, a way to screen for the virus was found but it lies in a lab in the middle of one of the outbreak cities. One of your priorities will involve having your best men go and find it in order to separate healthy from infected.
__________________
The Europa Barbarorum II team [M2TW] needs YOUR HELP NOW HERE!
Reply With Quote
Facebook Connect and Magazine Promotions

World War II Magazine
$26.95

Armchair General Magazine
$26.95
Military History Magazine
$26.95
  #2  
Old 04 Jun 16, 18:05
T. A. Gardner's Avatar
T. A. Gardner T. A. Gardner is online now
General of the Forums
United_States
5 Year Service Ribbon Most Significant/Influential Tank Campaign Most Significant/Influential Fighter Campaign Most Significant/Influential Multi-Role Aircraft C 
Greatest/Best Tank of WW2 Campaign 
 
Real Name: T. A. Gardner
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Phoenix
Posts: 34,368
T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+]
T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+]
What's the worldwide situation? Are other nations suffering this outbreak? Which ones? This, in part, determines the response.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 04 Jun 16, 18:30
Frtigern's Avatar
Frtigern Frtigern is offline
Major General
United_States
5 Year Service Ribbon Most Significant/Influential Tank Campaign Most Significant/Influential Fighter Campaign Most Significant/Influential Multi-Role Aircraft C 
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Stateside
Posts: 2,919
Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300] Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300] Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300] Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300] Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300] Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300] Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300] Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300] Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300] Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300] Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300] Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300] Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300]
Quote:
Originally Posted by T. A. Gardner View Post
What's the worldwide situation? Are other nations suffering this outbreak? Which ones? This, in part, determines the response.
I'm keeping it national for now as it simplifies response. It's reasonable to assume a doctor could travel nonstop (without leaving plane) from the Congo to home country. Which nation depends on where the replier has expertise. As far as the outbreak in the Congo, it's a problem for sure but maybe the locals have a certain immunity to it that people not from the Congo have. They could be the turning point late in the outbreak, but for now no one realizes it.
__________________
The Europa Barbarorum II team [M2TW] needs YOUR HELP NOW HERE!
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 04 Jun 16, 21:34
T. A. Gardner's Avatar
T. A. Gardner T. A. Gardner is online now
General of the Forums
United_States
5 Year Service Ribbon Most Significant/Influential Tank Campaign Most Significant/Influential Fighter Campaign Most Significant/Influential Multi-Role Aircraft C 
Greatest/Best Tank of WW2 Campaign 
 
Real Name: T. A. Gardner
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Phoenix
Posts: 34,368
T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+]
T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+]
Well, since he travelled by air to a number of large airports, this would have gone worldwide in short order. Being an airborne virus it would have spread to all the people on the planes he travelled on, and those people would have become carriers as well. Additionally, he'd have given the disease to numerous people in the airports and other locations he visited.
I'd expect within a couple of months that it'd be close to 80 to 90% infection if it were virulent, maybe 30 to 50% if people had some resistance.

At that level of infection, you'd have little choice but to go with quarantine. Assuming that the vector is known (eg., that its airborne among other methods), then some level of breathing protection would be a universal. Let's assume that would be a good face mask short of a HEPA filter.
With anywhere from 30 to 90% of the population infected trying to do more than quarantine on a local basis would be ineffective as that number increases. You simply can't quarantine say 75% of the population.

I'd try instead to disseminate as widely as possible a means for say a neighborhood to self-quarantine. That is, how to detect the virus, how to prevent likely infection, and how to keep others out of your area. Add what to do with someone clearly infected and those that have potentially been infected by that individual.

Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 04 Jun 16, 21:51
Biscuit's Avatar
Biscuit Biscuit is offline
ACG Forums - General Staff
United_States
Distinguished Service Award ACG Ten Year Service Award 5 Year Service Ribbon March Offensive 
Summer Campaign Greatest Westerns Campaign 100 Greatest Generals, 2008 Most Decisive Battle Campaign, 2008 
Greatest Spy Movies Campaign Greatest Blunders Campaign Most Significant/Influential Multi-Role Aircraft C Model Forum Group Build (Multiple) 
 
Real Name: Heather
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Colorado
Posts: 8,520
Biscuit has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Biscuit has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Biscuit has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Biscuit has achieved enlightenment [1200+]
Biscuit has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Biscuit has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Biscuit has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Biscuit has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Biscuit has achieved enlightenment [1200+]
I live in the foothills of Colorado. I good off road and off grid while you guys fight it out. Maybe I come back one day, and maybe I just enjoy the Rockies without tourist season.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 04 Jun 16, 23:34
Frtigern's Avatar
Frtigern Frtigern is offline
Major General
United_States
5 Year Service Ribbon Most Significant/Influential Tank Campaign Most Significant/Influential Fighter Campaign Most Significant/Influential Multi-Role Aircraft C 
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Stateside
Posts: 2,919
Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300] Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300] Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300] Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300] Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300] Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300] Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300] Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300] Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300] Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300] Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300] Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300] Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300]
Quote:
Originally Posted by T. A. Gardner View Post
Well, since he travelled by air to a number of large airports, this would have gone worldwide in short order. Being an airborne virus it would have spread to all the people on the planes he travelled on, and those people would have become carriers as well. Additionally, he'd have given the disease to numerous people in the airports and other locations he visited.
I'd expect within a couple of months that it'd be close to 80 to 90% infection if it were virulent, maybe 30 to 50% if people had some resistance.

At that level of infection, you'd have little choice but to go with quarantine. Assuming that the vector is known (eg., that its airborne among other methods), then some level of breathing protection would be a universal. Let's assume that would be a good face mask short of a HEPA filter.
With anywhere from 30 to 90% of the population infected trying to do more than quarantine on a local basis would be ineffective as that number increases. You simply can't quarantine say 75% of the population.

I'd try instead to disseminate as widely as possible a means for say a neighborhood to self-quarantine. That is, how to detect the virus, how to prevent likely infection, and how to keep others out of your area. Add what to do with someone clearly infected and those that have potentially been infected by that individual.
Ok, then let us assume there is a worldwide epidemic as you would want it, how would you deal with it militarily? Besides a prison a military base would be the next best controllable environment where isolating people could work, that is unless some service members had become infected already. Yet with a way of screening every soldier and realizing the first stage is preventable you could reasonably quarantine a military base. Not sure if the filters in current military gas masks work against viruses as the usual threats are chemical agents. A quick search shows many civilian HEPA mask filters and some for older gas masks. In either case I don't doubt the military could supply enough filters. Its the first responders that would need them first, as they are closer to the everyday people than most service members.

It would seem that as all law enforcement officers and military personnel were equipped with masks (military police priority) then it would be a waiting to see what happens. Everyone would have to be screened and quarantined as quickly as possible. Those that haven't been would have to be watched closely, but they wouldn't know that the second stage becomes physical. Not until the next wave of victims are stage 2 infected and biting would law enforcement/military know how to stop it. Vital organ gunshot wounds being required to kill them.

Another thing, we have to assume that the virus doesn't stop reasoning abilities. That means these "zombies" will do anything to get to another host to include using what reasoning they had to use tools to get to you, but usually with whatever's within reach. So if a zombie sees a circular saw or angle grinder nearby and knows how to use it, it will. That doesn't mean they will use weapons to kill, because the purpose of the virus is to find more hosts to spread the virus.
__________________
The Europa Barbarorum II team [M2TW] needs YOUR HELP NOW HERE!
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 05 Jun 16, 02:08
T. A. Gardner's Avatar
T. A. Gardner T. A. Gardner is online now
General of the Forums
United_States
5 Year Service Ribbon Most Significant/Influential Tank Campaign Most Significant/Influential Fighter Campaign Most Significant/Influential Multi-Role Aircraft C 
Greatest/Best Tank of WW2 Campaign 
 
Real Name: T. A. Gardner
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Phoenix
Posts: 34,368
T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+]
T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+]
No, a military base would make no difference. Even a prison would make little difference.

You stated that this guy flew from the Congo on an international flight. He'd have spread it to many of the passengers on that plane. He (and they) would spread it hundreds, if not thousands, of others before it was detected. By the time it was obvious there was a pandemic, millions would potentially be infected.
One prison worker could have spread it to an entire prison population. The same goes for a military base.
The original host flew (per the OP) on a half dozen other flights to major cities. Given the wait times through TSA check points he would have spread it to thousands on his own and they to tens of thousands more within days.
The obvious, and likely only, way to break the cycle of infection would be to isolate populations that are uninfected at the local level.
Without some easy test to see if someone has the virus the only way would be to watch those around you for signs of infection while trying to avoid being infected yourself.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 05 Jun 16, 14:57
Frtigern's Avatar
Frtigern Frtigern is offline
Major General
United_States
5 Year Service Ribbon Most Significant/Influential Tank Campaign Most Significant/Influential Fighter Campaign Most Significant/Influential Multi-Role Aircraft C 
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Stateside
Posts: 2,919
Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300] Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300] Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300] Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300] Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300] Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300] Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300] Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300] Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300] Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300] Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300] Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300] Frtigern is on a distinguished road [300]
Quote:
Originally Posted by T. A. Gardner View Post
No, a military base would make no difference. Even a prison would make little difference.

You stated that this guy flew from the Congo on an international flight. He'd have spread it to many of the passengers on that plane. He (and they) would spread it hundreds, if not thousands, of others before it was detected. By the time it was obvious there was a pandemic, millions would potentially be infected.
One prison worker could have spread it to an entire prison population. The same goes for a military base.
The original host flew (per the OP) on a half dozen other flights to major cities. Given the wait times through TSA check points he would have spread it to thousands on his own and they to tens of thousands more within days.
The obvious, and likely only, way to break the cycle of infection would be to isolate populations that are uninfected at the local level.
Without some easy test to see if someone has the virus the only way would be to watch those around you for signs of infection while trying to avoid being infected yourself.
Well we could assume every military base is a local level. With access control points, fencing and roving patrols its an easier place to make sure no unscreened servicemembers get in. Of course the dangers will be present if one SM has the virus but hasnt been screened yet. It wouldn't be too hard to place all non-screened personnel in a secure place, but the risk of spreading it to all of that population is there. A better way would be to separate people by travel. Hopefully they have the integrity to tell the truth so they don't infect the rest of their SMs. Any SMs that haven't travelled anywhere outside post would be separated, any SMs that have travelled off post but didn't travel outside of town would be another group and any SMs base have travelled outside of town would be the third group. Start the quarantine with the closing of all on base establishments. Wait until all civilians return off base. Provide all gate guards and MPs with masks. Once that is done recall all SMs to form up at their units for accountability. As soon as they enter unit they are issued mask with HEPA filter. They will form up according to one of the three groups as stated. Then the process of screening will take place, starting with those SMs that have travelled outside of town.

Maybe this scenario is simpler if we know that the doctor has not travelled anywhere except from one international airport or maybe from one small airport in Africa to one small county airport in the states. If it was a completely private flight with no waitresses and no other passengers that take off and land with no interaction with other people at departure and arrival, besides the pilots and no deplaning if there was any refueling with a landing at a small airstrip and his personal vehicle straight home with no other people around then the only people we would have to worry about are the pilots, his family and his coworkers. Then its up to him finding out he has the virus, finding a way to screen it, discover its effects and discover a cure before it becomes stage 2. With a long incubation period its possible he could be feeling different psychologically and may do some blood tests to see whats up. But by the time he figures out how it spreads during stage 1, there would still be too many people infected, yet not on the same scale as if he traveled to half a dozen major airports. Then maybe a stronger military response is possible?
__________________
The Europa Barbarorum II team [M2TW] needs YOUR HELP NOW HERE!
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 05 Jun 16, 15:28
T. A. Gardner's Avatar
T. A. Gardner T. A. Gardner is online now
General of the Forums
United_States
5 Year Service Ribbon Most Significant/Influential Tank Campaign Most Significant/Influential Fighter Campaign Most Significant/Influential Multi-Role Aircraft C 
Greatest/Best Tank of WW2 Campaign 
 
Real Name: T. A. Gardner
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Phoenix
Posts: 34,368
T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+]
T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+]
This is a CDC scenario for a smallpox outbreak. That is a known disease, with an available vaccination.

http://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/5/4/99-0416_article

I'd say their numbers are off by a factor of at least 10, maybe more as to how fast it would spread and by how many people could be vaccinated in the time they give. But, it's a start.

You have a similar situation here but with a vector that takes several weeks to show up in an infected host. If we assume that an infected host can transmit the disease as easily as smallpox or Ebola, then by the time the first cases are being reported and acted on even with limited exposure, tens of thousands will be infected already. Worse, unlike the two diseases above, the "experts" won't know how it is transmitted for sure immediately although airborne transmission might be assumed. If they assume it is only through bodily fluid exchange (eg., biting etc.) the spread might continue unabated for a week or more after the initial cases are reported.

Since it is an international flight, it will have to land at a major airport for customs inspection and immigration / customs checks of the passengers. It makes no difference if it's a small plane or large one. The pilots get infected too. They and the passenger spread it to lots of people at the airport they land at. Potentially, depending on how long it remains viable airborne, the ground crew servicing the plane get it. Any intermediate stops (no current business jets or turboprops can fly from Central Africa to the US non-stop) likewise get it.

Given that these infected have, minimally, several weeks to infect others, and those new cases the same, there will be literally thousands of potential hosts already spread over a vast area when it becomes apparent there's a pandemic going on.

It also looks like a host could infect a non-human host as well. Biting a pet, livestock, etc., would only up the number of potential vectors.

I still say the only way to quickly abate the danger on a national scale would be to isolate literally every neighborhood and city from one another. You then have everyone wearing a mask as much as possible. If someone in a home is infected, it can be assumed everyone in it is.

Once there is a viable and accurate screening process available you begin to evacuate or segregate the healthy from infected.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Please bookmark this thread if you enjoyed it!


Thread Tools
Display Modes



Forum Jump

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:58.
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.