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Go Back   Armchair General and HistoryNet >> The Best Forums in History > Current Events > Russia, Central Asia, and The Caucasus

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Russia, Central Asia, and The Caucasus Post-Soviet Russia and some neglected smaller neighbors.

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  #1  
Old 25 May 16, 10:31
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State of Russian economy

Looks like the Russian economy is starting to show stress


1) According to Sberbank, the average Russian salary has fallen below the level PRC and Kazakh salaries. Its pretty bad when you have to ask Borat for a loan.

http://thebarentsobserver.com/societ...-lower-chinese


2) mini-me confirms that the pantry is empty. Ru-net is having a field day with this meme.

http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-.../27754644.html
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  #2  
Old 25 May 16, 13:48
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Quote:
Looks like the Russian economy is starting to show stress
"Breaking news! Napoleon has died!" today's Estonian newspapers say.

Nominal wages in USD do not say a lot. You have to adjust them with PPP to get something meaningful. The real wages and incomes declined after the crisis start but not as sharply as USD/ruble exchange rate might suggest. The recent statistical report on Russian economy estimate real wages in first 4 months 2016 as 90% of the per-crisis level.

Borat jokes are only good for the lowest strata of American rednecks. In fact Kazakhstan is on the of the most successful of post-Soviet states.
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  #3  
Old 25 May 16, 16:29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Artyom_A View Post

The real wages and incomes declined after the crisis start but not as sharply as USD/ruble exchange rate might suggest. .
Tell that to a muscovite with a dollar-denominated car or flat loan.

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Originally Posted by Artyom_A View Post
The recent statistical report on Russian economy estimate real wages in first 4 months 2016 as 90% of the per-crisis level.
.
There's a quote for these jokers "lies, damn lies and statistics"

Quote:
Originally Posted by Artyom_A View Post
Borat jokes are only good for the lowest strata of American rednecks.
.
Borat was an English comics way to make fun of American rednecks, Kazakstan is just a filler.

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Originally Posted by Artyom_A View Post
In fact Kazakhstan is on the of the most successful of post-Soviet states.
So you want to compare yourself against Uzbekistan or Tajikistan instead?
I don't think the average citizen of Russia sees themselves as the equal of a Kazak
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  #4  
Old 25 May 16, 16:47
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Originally Posted by Artyom_A View Post
In fact Kazakhstan is on the of the most successful of post-Soviet states.
Just out of curiosity, how that standard stack up against Germany?

After all, being the most successful in a group only has value if the group are at least above average.
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  #5  
Old 25 May 16, 17:36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prospekt Mira View Post
Tell that to a muscovite with a dollar-denominated car or flat loan.
Few people have a loan in USD or buy a car for dollars. When it comes to an averaged buying ability PPP is an adequate average indicator.
Quote:
There's a quote for these jokers "lies, damn lies and statistics"
Sounds like "I've got nothing to respond but want to say something". You can quote any alternative set of statistics if you like. If you reject economical statistics in principle then I don't see any purpose in this discussion.
Quote:
I don't think the average citizen of Russia sees themselves as the equal of a Kazak
I can't say about any Russian citizen, but I don't see anything wrong about Kazakhstan. I repeat that in the last years its economy was developing quite well and GDP per capita was similar to Russian numbers. Check this table for a start:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...%29_per_capita
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  #6  
Old 25 May 16, 19:27
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Putin will try to diversify the economy by offering products and services nobody wants because they are already being offered by China which has a 40 year head start over Russia in the global export market.

Putin has certain opportunities to increase trade by exporting non-oil commodities such as wheat and timber and mineral ore. For example, Russian wheat exports are growing compared to previous years.

The problem is commodities (basic goods) are very cheap and they will not generate the kind of revenue Putin is looking for despite gigantic quantities being shipped .
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Last edited by MonsterZero; 25 May 16 at 19:38..
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  #7  
Old 26 May 16, 06:50
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Wheat is just a droplet in an ocean. To quote some numbers in the last year Russia exported foodstuffs and agriculture products 16 billion $ worth. Compared with the total export equal to 343 billion $. As small-small part.
For comparison Ukraine (which strives to be a great agriculture power) exported 14.5 billion of food and related products in 2015 or about the same number as Russia. Yest with the total export equal to 38 billion USD, food is their main export item unlike Russia.
Or to say it in another way the Russian oil and gas (and also metals) export is so huge even despite falling prices that it easily dwarfs other items.
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Old 26 May 16, 14:54
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Schadenfreude.

Coming from a UkrOp.

Pure gold.


Nothing can match the idiocy of diaspora, doesn't matter which people are in question.

PS: Love the "muscovite" term. Best Russia (aka Ukraine) likes it very much.


PPS: Reading "Putin this" "Putin that" "Putin should" "Putin will" one really starts to understand how delusional and comically uninformed people are.
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Old 26 May 16, 15:14
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2014 (2015 is not representative for either country

russian Exports

http://images.financialexpress.com/2...sia-Export.jpg

so of the 378B of exports only some 19B (Mechanical, Inorg Chems & electronics) or 5% have some significant value added.

In Ukraine the 38B (which was already depressed due to the 2013 trade war imposed by Moscow) included some 4B in machinery/automotive and 2B in medications or almost 16% value added.

russia's problem is that she has managed to get a case of Norwegian disease without any of the real benefits accruing to the majority of its citizens.
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Old 26 May 16, 15:23
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I would still like to know how the comparisons stand.
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Old 26 May 16, 15:35
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And what should Russian Federation strive to be? It is sparsely and unequally populated, it's huge, the climate is rather harsh, yet has huge natural resource potential. The decades of Soviet rule have left their mark, both in the economy and the mentality of the society. Import substitution, social spending cuts, beaurocracy cuts etc. are the way to go, in addition to investments in consumer product industry.

Compared to the project country that Bolshevik Ukraine was, with money pumped in, artificial industrialisation and urbanisation being done. I am genuinely interested in 2015 and 2016 numbers of Ukrainian economy. Lets see how many of that higher added value activities and industries have survived. Now that Russians finally came to their sense and stopped importing automotive, engine and electronic components, both for
civilian and military use. Moreover, we can finally see the benefits of EUAA in the case of Ukraine, because the glorious revolution occured due to economic reasons and corruption. Riiiiiiiiight.
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Old 26 May 16, 15:56
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Epigon View Post
And what should Russian Federation strive to be? It is sparsely and unequally populated, it's huge, the climate is rather harsh, yet has huge natural resource potential. The decades of Soviet rule have left their mark, both in the economy and the mentality of the society. Import substitution, social spending cuts, beaurocracy cuts etc. are the way to go, in addition to investments in consumer product industry.

Compared to the project country that Bolshevik Ukraine was, with money pumped in, artificial industrialisation and urbanisation being done. I am genuinely interested in 2015 and 2016 numbers of Ukrainian economy. Lets see how many of that higher added value activities and industries have survived. Now that Russians finally came to their sense and stopped importing automotive, engine and electronic components, both for
civilian and military use. Moreover, we can finally see the benefits of EUAA in the case of Ukraine, because the glorious revolution occured due to economic reasons and corruption. Riiiiiiiiight.
Much of those ample resources are not in Russia proper. The Ukraine was not the first region to head for the door, and odds are that it will not be the last.

What then?
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Old 26 May 16, 16:04
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Originally Posted by Arnold J Rimmer View Post
Much of those ample resources are not in Russia proper. The Ukraine was not the first region to head for the door, and odds are that it will not be the last.

What then?
And where are they located?

The first "region"? You sure do know your Eastern European history.

Not the last "region" to leave? Oh, please do tell us what will be the next "region" to leave Russia, and what valuable resources will the Russians lose.

I am still puzzled which resources did Ukraine have.

Come to think of it, Ukraine is part/region of "Russia proper", so you might be historically correct, and I was wrong.
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Old 26 May 16, 16:10
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And where are they located?

The first "region"? You sure do know your Eastern European history.

Not the last "region" to leave? Oh, please do tell us what will be the next "region" to leave Russia, and what valuable resources will the Russians lose.

I am still puzzled which resources did Ukraine have.

Come to think of it, Ukraine is part/region of "Russia proper", so you might be historically correct, and I was wrong.
It was a simple question, no need for such tap-dancing.

I was referring to Siberia, and the oil and gas-rich republics down south. If any of them should decide to leave, perhaps because they don't like infidels, then what?

The Baltic States certainly are not returning to the fold, and is Georgia wholly loyal?
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Old 26 May 16, 16:26
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Originally Posted by Arnold J Rimmer View Post
It was a simple question, no need for such tap-dancing.

I was referring to Siberia, and the oil and gas-rich republics down south. If any of them should decide to leave, perhaps because they don't like infidels, then what?

The Baltic States certainly are not returning to the fold, and is Georgia wholly loyal?

Siberia is definitely not going anywhere, either as a geographic term, or the region. No popular support for it, no political or economic justification. Tatarstan was problematic during the worst period, but was kept inside Russian Federation despite being an independent republic in all but name.

The Baltic countries, although beautiful (both the land and the ladies) have no resources of note.

Chechnya is bought and pacified, and the Russians would have been better off had they amputated the Caucasian cancer altogether, with their tribalism, backwardness and unique blend of religion and organised crime. Unfortunately, the interests of common Russians are not the same as the interests of the elite and state, so the oil reserves and strategic position prevailed. Georgia is an American ally, the USA recently held joint exercises there. The country has no noteworthy natural resources.

Azerbaijan has the most oil and gas reserves, and Russia has an uneasy relationship with them. Despite being dominantly Shia, they are Turkish allies and mortal enemies of Armenians, another Russian ally. Interestingly, Russia sold and sells weapons to both sides, attracting criticism from both, but keeping at least some control levers.

The central Asian -stans are a varied bunch, Kazakhstan being the most interesting for Russia. There might be trouble in the future there, in my opinion.

Last edited by Epigon; 26 May 16 at 16:32..
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