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Go Back   Armchair General and HistoryNet >> The Best Forums in History > Current Events > The Middle East > Syrian Civil War, 2011 - ?

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Syrian Civil War, 2011 - ? From a local uprising to a proxy war, we discuss the chaos in Syria.

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  #31  
Old 23 Feb 16, 17:16
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Originally Posted by Daemon of Decay View Post
But not in Iraq.



Sure.
Perhaps we differ on the definition of humanitarian reasons.
Here's where to find the list of dozen plus (more for sake of any others reading here);
http://www.armchairgeneral.com/forum...ad.php?t=54392
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  #32  
Old 23 Feb 16, 18:57
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Originally Posted by Skoblin View Post
Do you think ISIS or the Islamists/Jihadis would be less hostile? Those are your two other realistic choices for Syria.
Nah there are other options, where the government structures are to a greater extent left intact but Assad steps down along with some other senior officials. More generally though, a peace that ends in an awkward cease fire between rebel and government forces with the underlying issues that caused the rebellions in the first place not resolved is going to sew the seeds for further problems down the line. A peace under Assad may be maintained, but it is not guaranteed, and it would come at the cost of ongoing repression. There doesn't just need to be leadership change, there needs to be some major overhauls in the country, one extreme possibility is the splitting of the country in general. Nobody is particularly serious about doing what needs to be done for lasting peace, they're more concerned with returning to something resembling stability so everyone can get about their business.
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  #33  
Old 23 Feb 16, 21:55
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Originally Posted by ThoseDeafMutes View Post
Nah there are other options, where the government structures are to a greater extent left intact but Assad steps down along with some other senior officials. More generally though, a peace that ends in an awkward cease fire between rebel and government forces with the underlying issues that caused the rebellions in the first place not resolved is going to sew the seeds for further problems down the line. A peace under Assad may be maintained, but it is not guaranteed, and it would come at the cost of ongoing repression. There doesn't just need to be leadership change, there needs to be some major overhauls in the country, one extreme possibility is the splitting of the country in general. Nobody is particularly serious about doing what needs to be done for lasting peace, they're more concerned with returning to something resembling stability so everyone can get about their business.
You are kinda close here, but a couple of factors to consider.

ISIS/ISIL/IS and Islamic Jihad in general are on a religious crusade of sorts. Partly because the best places in Paradise/Heaven go to martyrs and Holy Warriors (in Islamic theology/dogma), and otherly because one of Muhammad's last commands was to convert the whole world to Islam, by force when necessary. We have an ideological battle here which the West fails to properly define, which is why it fails to properly deal with.

With the above in consideration, we are also looking at the clash of a religious view and agenda on how to shape the world versus a secular (a.k.a. Western~non-Muslim) view/method of how to run the world. Islam sees no division between religious and secular rules/laws/guv'mint and the Islamists want a Caliphate that combines both religious and government leadership under one ruler, one law - Sharia. Sharia conflicts with what we Yanks refer to as basic human rights, the Bill of Rights as spelled out in our Constitution, similar of which have been adopted by many of the other Western nations/world.

While getting Assad out might help the situation to some of the contestants, others would see his replacement as more of the same, a "same" they don't want and are violently opposed to.

There are no quick and easy solutions here, and most of the Western approach would be more of the "Nation building" that many of the "locals" are opposed to. As I've maintained often, until the fundamentals of Islamic doctrine/dogma can be changed substantially to conform to more modern human rights and self-governance ideals, this planet is locked into a formula of 'forever war' until either we are all (the proper type of ) Muslim or the Jihad Agenda is invalidated and cast to history's dustbin.
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  #34  
Old 24 Feb 16, 01:37
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Or more appropriate to ask, what right do outsiders have to depose governments?
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  #35  
Old 24 Feb 16, 01:51
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On the subject of national interest, it is increasingly looking like a Russian backed Assad victory is best for Europe, creating a safe nation to which migrants can be deported.

It is also in Europes nation interest to change asylum rules.
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  #36  
Old 24 Feb 16, 02:22
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Originally Posted by Escape2Victory View Post
On the subject of national interest, it is increasingly looking like a Russian backed Assad victory is best for Europe, creating a safe nation to which migrants can be deported.
Given that Syrians are not the sole nationality of the refugees and that quite a few of the Syrians have escaped because of Assad that doesn't seem likely. Mainly because the non-refoulement rule and Assad's not so gentle handling of events.
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  #37  
Old 24 Feb 16, 03:58
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Originally Posted by Vaeltaja View Post
Given that Syrians are not the sole nationality of the refugees and that quite a few of the Syrians have escaped because of Assad that doesn't seem likely. Mainly because the non-refoulement rule and Assad's not so gentle handling of events.
The biggest wave of Syrian refugees to Europe, which began roughly in the fall of 2014 and reached its peak in the summer of 2015, coincided with the advance of the Jihadis/Islamists in Idlib and Latakia provinces and the advance of ISIS into Aleppo and Palmyra provinces. The more likely scenario is that they were fleeing ISIS and the Jihadis, rather than Assad.
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  #38  
Old 24 Feb 16, 05:47
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Originally Posted by Skoblin View Post
The biggest wave of Syrian refugees to Europe, which began roughly in the fall of 2014 and reached its peak in the summer of 2015, coincided with the advance of the Jihadis/Islamists in Idlib and Latakia provinces and the advance of ISIS into Aleppo and Palmyra provinces. The more likely scenario is that they were fleeing ISIS and the Jihadis, rather than Assad.
Except it takes time for that wave to reach Europe. And according to quite a few accounts it takes longer than what one might suspect. I believe we will be seeing refugees displaced by the actions you described mainly on this year instead of the last. Keep in mind that the wave will also 'push' those displaced previously further towards Europe.
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  #39  
Old 24 Feb 16, 09:58
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Originally Posted by GMan88 View Post
Or more appropriate to ask, what right do outsiders have to depose governments?
Generally it boils down to a combination of ability and perceived need.
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Old 24 Feb 16, 10:54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vaeltaja View Post
Given that Syrians are not the sole nationality of the refugees and that quite a few of the Syrians have escaped because of Assad that doesn't seem likely. Mainly because the non-refoulement rule and Assad's not so gentle handling of events.
'Syrian' has become a magic word for passport forgers. It will be useful to dispel it.
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  #41  
Old 25 Feb 16, 18:48
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Generally it boils down to a combination of ability and perceived need.
Sort of a modern "might makes right"? That's the impression I'm getting.
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  #42  
Old 15 Sep 16, 05:20
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Very interesting and almost certainly true.

This article seems credible in it's suggestion that it's all about a Gas Pipeline.
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  #43  
Old 15 Sep 16, 13:32
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Some media outlets in the US have mislead the Public wrt Syria. Some of my fellow Americans have no idea that most Syrians dress and have the same habits as Americans, that Syrian Christians and Muslims are united in the SAA, the Iraqi Army, Hezbollah, and other militias in the mid east.

Putin is not perfect though. Putin has made a # of insults toward American leadership. I think I get where Putin is coming from though, Putin sees the USA as the strongest country in the world by far...and so Putin through the media will at times go after US leadership to try and appease to Russians, Putin will parade around with no T Shirt to try and make Russia look strong.

Point is that Putin is not perfect nor is Obama. Also some of the media outles from Russia spew anti American propaganda on a daily basis...which helps no one.
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