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Warfare by Other Means Economics, demographics, cultural, technological, and other factors that have affected the course of history.

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Old 16 Aug 15, 16:45
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Stephen Hawking: Artificial Intelligence Could End Human Race

Quote:
The eminent British physicist Stephen Hawking warns that the development of intelligent machines could pose a major threat to humanity.

"The development of full artificial intelligence (AI) could spell the end of the human race," Hawking told the BBC.
http://www.livescience.com/48972-ste...ce-threat.html

I find this very strange and wonder if it isn't a publicity ploy.
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Old 17 Aug 15, 05:10
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No, it's quite a common fear. There is no way we can estimate the capabilities of a fully artificial intelligence. There is no way we could estimate what it's intelligence would be, or what it would be like, or what reality would be to it. I mean we struggle to understand what reality is for other people...and given that we all base it on our experience of the universe, ie the knowledge we have of it, it is always extremely limited. What would be like for an AI that can process ALL information there is?

I would think it wouldn't be dangerous but rather a machine of empathy.
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Old 17 Aug 15, 05:45
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Quote:
...and wonder if it isn't a publicity ploy.
Given that Hawkins words are invariable followed by something like this:

Quote:
Machine learning experts from the British company Swiftkey were also involved in its creation. Their technology, already employed as a smartphone keyboard app, learns how the professor thinks and suggests the words he might want to use next.
I think that's a reasonable conclusion.

Draw attention, plug the product. Seems like classic commercial advertising to me.

I wonder btw how many times the technology "suggests" the word "Swiftkey"
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Old 17 Aug 15, 07:46
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Fears of AI (although not originally known by that name) have been around much longer than the computer. They appear to have originated with the 'Chess Playing Automaton' or simply 'The Turk' built in 1770 by Wolfgang von Kempelen who worked for the Austrian court. This appeared to be a mechanical chess player that could beat most human players. In fact it was a fake, A series of mirrors made the mechanism appear to fill more of the cabinet than it did and parts to appear empty when sliding doors were drawn back. There was in fact room to conceal a human chess master inside who could move the pieces using a magnet. The machine is known to have fooled Napoleon Bonaparte and Benjamin Franklin both of whom were beaten by it. Chess masters who operated it have included Johann Allgaier, Boncourt, Aaron Alexandre, William Lewis, Jacques Mouret, and William Schlumberger. The fraud was first exposed by the British mathematician and inventor Robert Willisin in 1820 although Edgar Allan Poe later plagiarised Willisin's proof and attempted to claim the credit. By then stories involving artificial brains had begun to emerge such as E. T. A. Hoffman's "The Sandman (1816) which features an artificial woman called Olympia. Such brains were often portrayed as malevolent and hostile - in Edward Page Mitchell's The Ablest man in the World (1879) an idiot has his brain replaced with a difference engine, takes over the Russian Empire and attempts to conquer the World. In Ambrose Bierce's 1909 story Moxon's Master the brain murders its creator. E M Forster in The Machine Stops (1909) envisages a machine that takes over running everything for the human race which become incapable of supporting itself and perishes when the system breaks down (strangely the machine appears to have Amazon and Google like characteristics). I think that it is this last manifestation that the good professor fears.
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Old 17 Aug 15, 07:58
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At the very least you'd need a "self-sustaining" AI.

Something that can feed, reproduce and produce energy - no ?
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Old 17 Aug 15, 11:09
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I don't want to belittle in any way Hawking's huge intellectual input into the field of astrophysics, but I am beginning to feel his drift into areas where he has less expertise and knowledge - indeed into areas where perhaps emotion and bias appear to be creeping in.

Factoring in his long and emotionally draining illness/disability and possible negative/empty emotions permeating his halls of atheism, I can perhaps understand how he reached his 'conclusion' - but I most certainly don't agree with it. It is man and not machine who will be [if it happens] arbiters of the world's destruction - if the Almighty doesn't call things off first.
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Old 17 Aug 15, 13:32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wooden Wonder 2 View Post
I don't want to belittle in any way Hawking's huge intellectual input into the field of astrophysics, but I am beginning to feel his drift into areas where he has less expertise and knowledge - indeed into areas where perhaps emotion and bias appear to be creeping in.

Factoring in his long and emotionally draining illness/disability and possible negative/empty emotions permeating his halls of atheism, I can perhaps understand how he reached his 'conclusion' - but I most certainly don't agree with it. It is man and not machine who will be [if it happens] arbiters of the world's destruction - if the Almighty doesn't call things off first.
There is a precedent, Linus Pauling the only person ro win two unshared Nobel prizes (Chemistry and Peace) went slightly bonkers over vitamin C and health - this is a good account http://www.quackwatch.com/01Quackery...s/pauling.html
Brilliance in one sphere does not guarantee brilliance in all others.
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Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe (H G Wells)
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Old 17 Aug 15, 16:27
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We created computers in our own image. It seems quite plausible that without our biological restrictions, we will eventually evolve computing power to the point in out thinks us.

The threat is credible though perhaps not in our lifetime. Hard to say.
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Old 05 Oct 15, 08:31
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Not new

Stephan Hawing is a futurist. Nothing wrong with a timely warning.

Snowgerry above already put his finger on the pulse of this.

Can a machine become human when it cannot perform basic human tasks?

And then , there is the subject of emotions. How do you 'program' a computer to 'feel' something intangible? Love, Romance, terror, just to name a few basic human emotions that are and always will be impossible to quantify.

And Hawking's warning is not new.

In his series of science fiction novels, Frank Herbert placed thinking machines as the number one enemy of humanity and civilization. His universe, (which by the way, has no aliens of any kind) has an entire period called "The Bhutlerian Jihad". It's touched off by a preistess, an early initiate to the eventual sisterhood of the Bene Geserit. These women can alter their body chemistry at an atomic level, and have many other atributes.

When Sarah Bhutler enters the story, (during a prequill book, but mentioned in Herberts first novel) she is part of a 'progressive' planet society that turns over as much as possible to 'thinking machines'. One of these machines runs a hospital. It begins a program of abortions, simply because it is administratively expedient to do so. Sarah's baby is aborted, and she is told it could not have survived. But, because Sarah is in touch with her own body chemistry through her priestess activities with the Sisiterhood, she realizes that her baby was healthy, and that this machine simply had to go.

She campaigns, the word spreads, and it races across the known galaxy. Before she knows it, she is at the head of an entire 'Jihad' fleet, sterilizing entire machine culture planets that will not give up their AIs for anything.

Hawking may or may not have read Frank Herbert's DUNE, and the others.

anyone thinking of creating AI should become familiar with Herbert as a visionary, rather than simply a science fiction writer.

The day someone can create an AI with the intellectually contradictive complexity of the way my wife's mind works...well...that'll be THE day!

Well, that'll be the day,
When you say 'goodbye'
Yes, that'll be the day,
When you make me cry,
You say your'e gonna' be,
in love with AI,
Coz, That'll be the day-ay-ay,
When we die!

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Old 05 Oct 15, 13:12
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Was this not provoked by his getting the creeps over his new voice-synthesizer system getting Bolshi?

Having just tried to get one of Bill F****ing Gates's monstrous machines to do it's ruddy job, I would suggest that we are more likely to get wiped out by a badly-programmed computer than murdered by an evil, reasoning one.
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Old 05 Oct 15, 14:44
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Hawking is wrong... Why? Because if AI were to get that smart it wouldn't give a rat's patoot about us.

Think about it. We didn't exterminate say goldfish because we are way smarter than they are. The animals that did go extinct at man's hands were primarily ones that were threats or food, mostly food. Even the ones that were threats were only hunted to the point of making them not threats in most cases.

An AI would likely respond the same way. Shrug... "Meph... Humans, whatever... I have better things to do with my vast intellect than use it thinking about them..."
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Old 06 Oct 15, 05:31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by T. A. Gardner View Post
Hawking is wrong... Why? Because if AI were to get that smart it wouldn't give a rat's patoot about us.

Think about it. We didn't exterminate say goldfish because we are way smarter than they are. The animals that did go extinct at man's hands were primarily ones that were threats or food, mostly food. Even the ones that were threats were only hunted to the point of making them not threats in most cases.

An AI would likely respond the same way. Shrug... "Meph... Humans, whatever... I have better things to do with my vast intellect than use it thinking about them..."
Wrong most of the animals that have gone extinct because of man did so not because of being hunted but because we destroyed their habitat in our search for food production, raw materials, living space or simply polluted it to a point where they could not thrive. We didn't think about them at all - they were collateral damage.
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Old 09 Nov 15, 09:12
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Originally Posted by Snowygerry View Post
At the very least you'd need a "self-sustaining" AI.

Something that can feed, reproduce and produce energy - no ?
In old USSR was very popular Pole sci-fi writer Stanislav Lem. In one of his stories he described planet people tried to colonize with robots with self-reproducing option. They became obscessed with their reproducing connectors and soon overpopulated planet, exhausted natural resources.
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Old 09 Nov 15, 09:27
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Originally Posted by Escape2Victory View Post
We created computers in our own image. It seems quite plausible that without our biological restrictions, we will eventually evolve computing power to the point in out thinks us.

The threat is credible though perhaps not in our lifetime. Hard to say.
No, computers do not reproduce human mind because nobody knows how it works. Even image processing function of eye and brain is extremely complex problem. Nature of conscious is unknow. I have read one theory it is finite state machine with self-representation. I. e. running program having on input information about own existence and functioning. In some degree like ball with reflecting inner surface. It cannot be investigated from outside without disruption of process of self reflecting.

From software engineers folklore I remember such postulates:
- man cannot make anyting without mistakes. If program runs from the start without debugging, something is wrong;
- advanced instrumental software for writing software allows producing advanced bugs that would be impossible with more simple instrument.

To emulate computer functioning you must have computer ten times more powerful than emulated. To grasp work of man's intellect you need ten times more powerful brain. Humans can create big calculator with big and sofisticated bugs

There is opinion that our civilization is on the brink big crisis in economy, may be many technological achievemens and know how will be lost.

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Old 09 Nov 15, 13:37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Escape2Victory View Post
We created computers in our own image. It seems quite plausible that without our biological restrictions, we will eventually evolve computing power to the point in out thinks us.

The threat is credible though perhaps not in our lifetime. Hard to say.
As someone who has worked with computers since the days of valves and plug board programming (when 8K memory was humongous) may I say that that is sheer balderdash - unless one has a very odd image of humanity. Computers do not think like humans, indeed they do not think at all. They can mimic human thought up to a point but only in very specialised circumstances where there are very precise and pre defined rules, well codified, like chess or miss taking online orders. They can perform, badly, some of the functions that human reflexive systems manage on a day to day basis and that's it. They are remarkably useful and powerful tools which can be used as extensions to the human mind (like a power saw is an extension to the human hand) and if misused or allowed to run without adequate safety features could cause damage (as could a power saw). But an existentialist threat -naw!
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