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  #31  
Old 25 Jun 15, 11:28
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Halsey made the huge mistake of leaving the invasion fleet without BBs, cruisers or CVs and took everything to chase a few carriers w/o planes. His ass was saved by a few DE, DD and CVE and the Japanese blunder of withdrawing the fleet when there was nothing left to stop it, otherwise, the fleet would have been sunk and he would have been court marshalled for leaving San Bernardino strait completely open and the fleet completely vulnerable. Blunder is an understatement. The idiot certainly didn't need all the modern BB and CA, CL, CV etc, to sink a few empty carriers.

Where the hell were the subs and the mighty USAAF? Mac was more concerned with filming his landing and making speeches for posterity than implementing an effective air defense against kamikazes and BBs with his huge resources.

The US could respond not very quickly and quite incompetently only because it didn't lose anything important in the PH attack. The sub base, tank farms, port facilities, CVs, CA, CL, DD and even most of the old BB were not lost. The Japanese wiped out most of the aviation but ran away as if they had anything to fear, instead of using their 6 carriers, 2 BBs & Cas, etc, to wipe out the 2 carriers returning with little fuel and few, partly obsolete planes (Buffalo, etc,) and to destroy the CA, CL, DD, tank farms, sub base, etc, and invade any of a number of poorly defended islands.

It is difficult to use so many warships so incompetently as in the PI.
In Surigao they had so many old BB, CA, CL, DD and PTB in a small area that they got in each other's way and friendly fire caused more damage than the small IJN fleet. Had Nimitz been in the PI, he could have left 2 old BB, 2 Ca, 10 DD and 20 PTB guarding San Bernardino, which still leaves a huge force in Surigao. Alternately, Nimitz could have ordered Halsey to leave 2 new BB a CVL, CA and CL and 10 DD in San Bernardino. There were too many capital ships everywhere, except protecting the vulnerable landing fleet.

Nebfer,
I already explained that the G4M are flying from the Marshalls to Kauai and the Ki 27 are crated in to Kauai and Maui. There are many extra planes in the carriers (12 each in Zuikaku and Shokaku, etc,) which are used during the long attack and replaced by crated planes assembled during the attack.

Within weeks new, crated Ki 43 would leave Japan for Kauai, Maui, etc, and take part in the invasions of Malaya, Sumatra, Ceylon, etc,

The US loses its most experienced carrier and land pilots, etc, in Hawaii and the PI and can only start from San Diego and Samoa, so it might as well wait until it defeats Germany to deal with Japan. Which leaves a lot of military and civilians isolated and being bombed and shelled for years in Hawaii, the PI, Wake, Midway, Johnston, etc,

Without New Caledonia, Australia, Ceylon and Hawaii US subs can operate only from Alaska, far from the DEI.

Last edited by Draco; 25 Jun 15 at 11:52..
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  #32  
Old 25 Jun 15, 11:36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Draco View Post
TAG
Halsey made the huge mistake of leaving the invasion fleet without BBs, cruisers or CVs and took everything to chase a few carriers w/o planes. His ass was saved by a few DE, DD and CVE and the Japanese blunder of withdrawing the fleet when there was nothing left to stop it, otherwise, the fleet would have been sunk and he would have been court marshalled for leaving San Bernardino strait completely open and the fleet completely vulnerable. Blunder is an understatement. The idiot certainly didn't need all the modern BB and CA, CL, CV etc, to sink a few empty carriers.

Where the hell were the subs and the mighty USAAF? Mac was more concerned with filming his landing and making speeches for posterity than implementing an effective air defense against kamikazes and BBs with his huge resources.

The US could respond not very quickly and quite incompetently only because it didn't lose anything important in the PH attack. The sub base, tank farms, port facilities, CVs, CA, CL, DD and even most of the old BB were not lost. The Japanese wiped out most of the aviation but ran away as if they had anything to fear, instead of using their 6 carriers, 2 BBs & Cas, etc, to wipe out the 2 carriers returning with little fuel and few, partly obsolete planes (Buffalo, etc,) and to destroy the tank farms, sub base, etc, and invade any of a number of poorly defended islands.
This drivel is barely worth a response. I suggest you thoroughly read a history book before issuing such blatantly false and inflammatory statements.
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  #33  
Old 25 Jun 15, 13:41
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Draco View Post
TAG
Halsey made the huge mistake of leaving the invasion fleet without BBs, cruisers or CVs and took everything to chase a few carriers w/o planes. His ass was saved by a few DE, DD and CVE and the Japanese blunder of withdrawing the fleet when there was nothing left to stop it, otherwise, the fleet would have been sunk and he would have been court marshalled for leaving San Bernardino strait completely open and the fleet completely vulnerable. Blunder is an understatement. The idiot certainly didn't need all the modern BB and CA, CL, CV etc, to sink a few empty carriers.

Where the hell were the subs and the mighty USAAF? Mac was more concerned with filming his landing and making speeches for posterity than implementing an effective air defense against kamikazes and BBs with his huge resources.

The US could respond not very quickly and quite incompetently only because it didn't lose anything important in the PH attack. The sub base, tank farms, port facilities, CVs, CA, CL, DD and even most of the old BB were not lost. The Japanese wiped out most of the aviation but ran away as if they had anything to fear, instead of using their 6 carriers, 2 BBs & Cas, etc, to wipe out the 2 carriers returning with little fuel and few, partly obsolete planes (Buffalo, etc,) and to destroy the CA, CL, DD, tank farms, sub base, etc, and invade any of a number of poorly defended islands.

It is difficult to use so many warships so incompetently as in the PI.
In Surigao they had so many old BB, CA, CL, DD and PTB in a small area that they got in each other's way and friendly fire caused more damage than the small IJN fleet. Had Nimitz been in the PI, he could have left 2 old BB, 2 Ca, 10 DD and 20 PTB guarding San Bernardino, which still leaves a huge force in Surigao. Alternately, Nimitz could have ordered Halsey to leave 2 new BB a CVL, CA and CL and 10 DD in San Bernardino. There were too many capital ships everywhere, except protecting the vulnerable landing fleet.
A massive red herring response. None of this has anything to do with the subject at hand. Otherwise, it is full of historical mistakes, outright fiction, and lack of detailed knowledge of the situation.

What I want to know are the exact number of G4M and Ki 27 Draco thinks he's going to put on Kauai.

Last edited by T. A. Gardner; 25 Jun 15 at 13:54..
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  #34  
Old 25 Jun 15, 16:22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Draco View Post
Where the hell were the subs and the mighty USAAF? Mac was more concerned with filming his landing and making speeches for posterity than implementing an effective air defense against kamikazes and BBs with his huge resources.
Doing their jobs, the Subs priority's where merchant shipping not combat ships, I do believe their was a few sub attacks/spotted before and after the battles.


Quote:
The US could respond not very quickly and quite incompetently only because it didn't lose anything important in the PH attack. The sub base, tank farms, port facilities, CVs, CA, CL, DD and even most of the old BB were not lost. The Japanese wiped out most of the aviation but ran away as if they had anything to fear, instead of using their 6 carriers, 2 BBs & Cas, etc, to wipe out the 2 carriers returning with little fuel and few, partly obsolete planes (Buffalo, etc,) and to destroy the CA, CL, DD, tank farms, sub base, etc, and invade any of a number of poorly defended islands.
The Main reason the IJN even did this was the destruction of the USNs Battleship fleet, all other targets where secondary to this, though the carriers where also vital if they where their. But it was the destruction of the USN Battleships that was the main reason for doing this at all.
That is what Yamamoto wanted to do.

The Harbor facility's and fuel tanks where low tertiary targets
Nagumo Left because he had done his job (all primary objectives being done), The weather was not very good, and He did not know where the carriers where, which is a worry, and he did not know how many aircraft where still available to the US forces. He also was being constrained by his fleet train (ships needed to refuel). And the fact that his carriers where wanted elsewhere.


This was their orders
Quote:
Carrier Striking Task Force Operations Order No. 1 [6]

23 November 1941
To: Carrier Striking Task Force

1. The Carrier Striking Task Force will proceed to the Hawaiian Area with utmost secrecy and, at the outbreak of the war, will launch a resolute surprise attack on and deal a fatal blow to the enemy fleet in the Hawaiian Area. The initial air attack is scheduled at 0330 hours, X Day. Upon completion of the air attacks, the Task Force will immediately withdraw and return to Japan and, after taking on new supplies, take its position for Second Period Operations. In the event that, during this operation, an enemy fleet attempts to intercept our force or a powerful enemy force is encountered and there is danger of attack, the Task Force will launch a counterattack.
Note it actually only states a single attack (which was in two waves mind you).
Order # 3 states largely the same, though in a single line mentions readying for a second attack but nothing about that second attack is listed in the rest of the order. Which detailed plans for the attack.



Quote:
Nebfer,
I already explained that the G4M are flying from the Marshalls to Kauai and the Ki 27 are crated in to Kauai and Maui. There are many extra planes in the carriers (12 each in Zuikaku and Shokaku, etc,) which are used during the long attack and replaced by crated planes assembled during the attack.
So the carriers are not carrying spare aircraft, so the well over 100 planes the will be losing on this operation will not be made up for.

The Betty's are not that good of a bomber, good range though. Though how many are you putting their (and what unit)? The Airstrip at Kauai is not finished AFAIK, it is not paved and the fuel storage is also not finished, though by IJN standards is perfectly acceptable I suppose... Though crating in aircraft is a bit problematic as that will take days... though I am not aware of the harbor facility's present their that can unload them. Not to mention their ordnance and possibly fuel.

At best The carriers lay wast to the fleet until about mid way through December 8th when the weather gets to bad to do flying operations and the fuel shortage gets critical (a number of Destroyers having to get towed back to base here), in the month that follows the USN brings in a significant amount of reinforcements and replaces much of their lost aircraft.

Also attacking the fuel tanks are not necessarily a good choice in terms of success, at Darwin they did attack them, but in 9 waves (over a few months) and over 300 sorties much of which was done on other harbor targets to be fair, they only managed to knock out 7 out of 11 fuel tanks -they dropped twice the ordnance on Darwin as they did on Pearl...

The 19th February attacks knocked out two and had over 200 bombers (including some 150 carrier aircraft from 4 carriers), though they it seems where not explicitly priority targets.

Quote:
Within weeks new, crated Ki 43 would leave Japan for Kauai, Maui, etc, and take part in the invasions of Malaya, Sumatra, Ceylon, etc,

The US loses its most experienced carrier and land pilots, etc, in Hawaii and the PI and can only start from San Diego and Samoa, so it might as well wait until it defeats Germany to deal with Japan. Which leaves a lot of military and civilians isolated and being bombed and shelled for years in Hawaii, the PI, Wake, Midway, Johnston, etc,

Without New Caledonia, Australia, Ceylon and Hawaii US subs can operate only from Alaska, far from the DEI.
Fat chance of Austria going out of the war.

One thing to note is that the USN before the PH op knew where the IJN battleships where, they had an idea where the carrier where to, when they "disappeared" at the end of November, it did not concern them to much, but if the BBs disappeared as well, that would put a lot more concern...
Post Pearl, historically they sent within 30 days (actually they arrived within 30 days) 15,000 more men and over 100 aircraft (mostly fighter replacements).
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  #35  
Old 25 Jun 15, 17:07
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Even attacking the tank farm really doesn't do the Japanese much good. The Red Hill facility (about half finished in Dec 1941) was usable and it is bomb proof, the Japanese don't know about it, and the fuel in it will still be available even if the Japanese managed to blow up every other fuel tank on Oahu.

As for Kauai....

What became post war, Luhie Airport on Kauai was a single dirt strip in 1941 for emergency landings.

This is what it looked like in 1945 when the USAAF had improved it considerably:




As is obvious, there's room for maybe a half dozen fighter planes or a few bombers in terms of hardstands and parking area even in 1945. In 1941 there was no room for parking planes as the strip was intended just for emergencies.

So, that's the first problem the Japanese face using it.

Then there are no services.

Worse, neither the G3M nor G4M have the range to fly from the Marshalls to Hawaii. The distance is about 3800 miles and the book max range for either plane is about 3700 miles.
If the planes fly in formation that shortens the range. If they have navigational errors (a virtual certainty) they won't have fuel to correct them. They have no fuel to loiter at either end of the flight.

Basically, the bomber crews are going down somewhere in the Pacific...

Then there is the fuel problem. Each G4M requires about 900 gallons of fuel for a full load. Let's say they carry 450 for a mission in this case.
One mission will require about 120 55 gallon drums of fuel for 12 bombers (includes allowances for waste and such in that).
That comes close to 1000 drums for a week's operations.
Just off loading the fuel and moving it to the airfield will take the Japanese weeks to accomplish.
Then comes the munitions. 12 planes with a 2,000 lbs. bomb load equals 12 tons of bombs per sortie. That doesn't include the ammunition for the defense guns. I'd estimate 120 to 150 tons of bombs and ordinance for 12 planes per week minimum.
Since the only way to transfer any of this ashore is to anchor out and use small craft and lighters the operation will take weeks to complete. Of course, the Japanese may stupidly run the freighter(s) aground as they did elsewhere wasting the ship to get the stuff ashore in a week or so.

The bottom line here is the US pounds the snot out of the Japanese landings, then brings in masses of troops and takes the islands back. Japan loses.
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  #36  
Old 25 Jun 15, 18:54
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You didn't find the other landing strips in Kauai?

The G4Ms are following a long column of ships heading to Hawaii with beacons pointing up at night and the planes are carrying fuel, instead of bombs, a crew of 2 and no guns. The crew and guns arrive with the invasion fleet before the planes. Unlike the Doolittle planes which had to carry a ton of bombs and a few jerrycans of fuel, full crews and some guns and leave prematurely without much hope of survival.

The US lost its planes at dusk and a few diehards at dawn (facing hundreds of planes) and the ships were lost during the night and day and returning ships during the day. The US has nothing left to pound any invasions, much less by a fleet with BBs, CVs, etc, Exactly the same as in the PI. You have only a few divisions, coastal guns, tanks, etc, without any way to move them out of Oahu, Luzon, Wake, etc, supply them or reinforce them as they're bombed, shelled and smoked by burning fuel tanks, ships, planes and buildings.

If You doubt the G4M's range look at the distance they flew with bombs to Wake and back to the Marshalls after fighting with Wildcats and compare it to flying with no bombs, guns, turrets, ammo and a smaller crew and more fuel to Kauai and with beacons all along.
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  #37  
Old 25 Jun 15, 19:02
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Quote:
Originally Posted by T. A. Gardner View Post
As is obvious, there's room for maybe a half dozen fighter planes or a few bombers in terms of hardstands and parking area even in 1945. In 1941 there was no room for parking planes as the strip was intended just for emergencies.

So, that's the first problem the Japanese face using it.

Then there are no services.

Worse, neither the G3M nor G4M have the range to fly from the Marshalls to Hawaii. The distance is about 3800 miles and the book max range for either plane is about 3700 miles.
If the planes fly in formation that shortens the range. If they have navigational errors (a virtual certainty) they won't have fuel to correct them. They have no fuel to loiter at either end of the flight.

Basically, the bomber crews are going down somewhere in the Pacific...

Then there is the fuel problem. Each G4M requires about 900 gallons of fuel for a full load. Let's say they carry 450 for a mission in this case.
One mission will require about 120 55 gallon drums of fuel for 12 bombers (includes allowances for waste and such in that).
That comes close to 1000 drums for a week's operations.
Just off loading the fuel and moving it to the airfield will take the Japanese weeks to accomplish.
Then comes the munitions. 12 planes with a 2,000 lbs. bomb load equals 12 tons of bombs per sortie. That doesn't include the ammunition for the defense guns. I'd estimate 120 to 150 tons of bombs and ordinance for 12 planes per week minimum.
Since the only way to transfer any of this ashore is to anchor out and use small craft and lighters the operation will take weeks to complete. Of course, the Japanese may stupidly run the freighter(s) aground as they did elsewhere wasting the ship to get the stuff ashore in a week or so.

The bottom line here is the US pounds the snot out of the Japanese landings, then brings in masses of troops and takes the islands back. Japan loses.
You would not have a source for the range of the G4Ms do you as a number of online sources all state that it has a 5,000km range, and using Google it's only 3,500km to Kauai from the Marshals.

So a ferry flight is feasible, but every else sounds about right. Though they probably could operate at best a Sentai each of Bombers and fighters (a Sentai is roughly group in US parlance, but only consisting of about 27-30 combat aircraft sans spairs, split into three Chutai (Squadron) of three Shotai (Flight) which was comprised of 3 aircraft, as for spares it seems each Chutai had 3 aircraft as spares). but getting 70-80 aircraft is not going to be quick or easy (the bombers could fly in, the fighters have to be delivered by ship, which he has noted) and maintaining them more so. and even so 40ish bombers is not going to be a very strong force... well that's for the army air forces, from what I can find the navys units where not to dissimilar.

Though I wonder if he's getting some ideas from Glenn's Pearl harbor invasion posted on the Axis history forums 8 years ago?
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  #38  
Old 25 Jun 15, 20:25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nebfer View Post
You would not have a source for the range of the G4Ms do you as a number of online sources all state that it has a 5,000km range, and using Google it's only 3,500km to Kauai from the Marshals.

So a ferry flight is feasible, but every else sounds about right. Though they probably could operate at best a Sentai each of Bombers and fighters (a Sentai is roughly group in US parlance, but only consisting of about 27-30 combat aircraft sans spairs, split into three Chutai (Squadron) of three Shotai (Flight) which was comprised of 3 aircraft, as for spares it seems each Chutai had 3 aircraft as spares). but getting 70-80 aircraft is not going to be quick or easy (the bombers could fly in, the fighters have to be delivered by ship, which he has noted) and maintaining them more so. and even so 40ish bombers is not going to be a very strong force... well that's for the army air forces, from what I can find the navys units where not to dissimilar.

Though I wonder if he's getting some ideas from Glenn's Pearl harbor invasion posted on the Axis history forums 8 years ago?
I'm using Japanese Aircraft of the Pacific War by Francillon. That is usually considered a definitive source.

He lists the G3M3 as having a range of 3,871 statute miles with a fuel capacity of 1368 US gallons.
The G4M1 (the only version in existence in 1941) has a range of 3,749 statute miles with a fuel capacity of 1186 US gallons.

My mistake I was looking at km. It's just over 2800 miles from Kwajalein Atoll to Hawaii. So, they could make the trip. But, it still doesn't mean they can do anything other than land after they arrive.

That still requires masses of fuel delivered in 55 gallon drums that will have to be hand moved to the airfield and then hand pumped into the airplanes. It means delivering hundreds of tons of bombs and munitions, spare parts, maintenance items, and the like too.
At the end of the day, Draco is trying to do this from a small dirt airstrip with no parking, no hardstands, no services, no electricity, no nothing. Just repeated take offs and landings will ruin the strip by rutting it.
Without places to park the planes how do the Japanese clear the runway of aircraft that land? There are no taxiways, no hard stands, nothing.

It will take the Japanese months to fix the field up and then stock it with supplies.

A single regiment of infantry landed will take about 16 to 20 transport ships anchored off shore for a week or more. How many get sunk (and yes, they will get sunk regardless of Draco's unsupported blather about striking Pearl Harbor). Subs and destroyers alone are going to tear the Japanese invasion fleet apart and their own navy can't stay on station to prevent it.
Even his absurd scenario has the carriers running out of munitions in less than two days. They aren't getting more sitting off Hawaii.

The isn't one thing about this scenario that is plausible other than Japan loses. Far better researched scenarios for Japan invading Hawaii have been proposed than this dreck here and they all end with Japan losing.

http://www.armchairgeneral.com/forum...d.php?t=118219

For example.
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Old 25 Jun 15, 22:37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by T. A. Gardner View Post
I'm using Japanese Aircraft of the Pacific War by Francillon. That is usually considered a definitive source.

He lists the G3M3 as having a range of 3,871 statute miles with a fuel capacity of 1368 US gallons.
The G4M1 (the only version in existence in 1941) has a range of 3,749 statute miles with a fuel capacity of 1186 US gallons.

My mistake I was looking at km. It's just over 2800 miles from Kwajalein Atoll to Hawaii. So, they could make the trip. But, it still doesn't mean they can do anything other than land after they arrive.

That still requires masses of fuel delivered in 55 gallon drums that will have to be hand moved to the airfield and then hand pumped into the airplanes. It means delivering hundreds of tons of bombs and munitions, spare parts, maintenance items, and the like too.
At the end of the day, Draco is trying to do this from a small dirt airstrip with no parking, no hardstands, no services, no electricity, no nothing. Just repeated take offs and landings will ruin the strip by rutting it.
Without places to park the planes how do the Japanese clear the runway of aircraft that land? There are no taxiways, no hard stands, nothing.

It will take the Japanese months to fix the field up and then stock it with supplies.

A single regiment of infantry landed will take about 16 to 20 transport ships anchored off shore for a week or more. How many get sunk (and yes, they will get sunk regardless of Draco's unsupported blather about striking Pearl Harbor). Subs and destroyers alone are going to tear the Japanese invasion fleet apart and their own navy can't stay on station to prevent it.
Even his absurd scenario has the carriers running out of munitions in less than two days. They aren't getting more sitting off Hawaii.

The isn't one thing about this scenario that is plausible other than Japan loses. Far better researched scenarios for Japan invading Hawaii have been proposed than this dreck here and they all end with Japan losing.

http://www.armchairgeneral.com/forum...d.php?t=118219

For example.
Yeah I remember that, and Glenns "op tinkerbell" which that thread is partly based on...

But Draco is likely to say that he's not invading Oahu, but the less well defended islands... and bombing the crap out of Pearl... Which he ignores the fact that by the end of the 8th he's running low on bombs, and more impotently fuel for his destroyers, and to a degree his carriers, and from what I can find the weather was getting a bit rough by that time as well, making air operations difficult in any case.
And if he insists on shelling the place then he's got coastal artillery to deal with... Wake 2.0...

Though that link you gave mentioned that during this time frame the north face of Oahu is very rough making landings their very difficult, so the landings will have to take place on the south side (the better defended side). Now he's not landing on Oahu but I wonder if the weather would force a similar event where he has to land on the southern sides (a lot closer to any USN forces)...

The Matter is his night op is going to be vastly cut back from what he wants, to at best 50 aircraft (40 carry torpedos), it likely is going to be timed to take place an hour before dawn (~6 AM), to reduce risks to the follow up strikes (I.e. if it took place at 2 am, and the next wave comes in at 7 am...). As the majority of the IJN air crews at best have a minimum of night experience so night ops are largely a no go, they will take off in the dark, but they will attack and return during the day (they use the islands radios to home in on, like the did historically).

This however then alerts the US with their radar, as sense they will be detected at around 515ish, the system will be maned with more experienced personnel, will more then likely will note the size of the blip and the timing, and conclude that it's likely not our planes...

The end result is the ships in the harbor get plastered a bit we lose a few battleships perhaps, with the second and follow up waves get decimated for much less results. A few more ships sunk a few more panes on the ground, but their going to find in this case 90+ fighters in the air waiting for them and a increasingly ready AA defense system, as a result they fairly easily lose 70+ planes in just one attack.

If they go with the late afternoon well perhaps we lose a fair number of aircraft but the second wave is going to be a lot less effective due to the far less aircraft used, the end result is due to the oncoming darkness and much smaller second wave is that we lose far fewer ships and planes, though the IJN perhaps lose less planes as well, but are likely going to have some fun returning to their carriers in the dark...

Come the next morning however... The ~200 some odd IJN aircraft are going to face 40+ USAAF, USMC and USN fighters and a fully maned and ready AA network. And the (remaining) ships are largely going to be out of the harbor.

The landings are likely going to take place late on the 7th or early on the 8th, I do not recall much on the islands to resist such efforts, but their is plenty near by to prevent followup forces form being able to do much, so what ever they can land in the first threeish days (being generous) is what they are going to get, as the carriers will have to return by the 9th any way (and if they could stay a few more days, they can not fly due to weather).

This however delays a number of other landings, elsewhere...

Interestingly the thread you linked to mentions that if pearl did fall, their was plans to turn American Samoa into a major operating base, thus keeping the Australian lines open, though these where rough plans...
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Old 25 Jun 15, 23:07
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Bottom line is if you can't take Oahu, you can't take Hawaii.

It's the same thing going the other direction. If the US can't take the airfield, harbor, main base in an island group or atoll, they can't control the atoll. That is why they invade places like Tarawa and crush the Japanese. That eliminates any possibility of a counter attack.

Taking a couple of other Hawaiian islands you can't supply, can't support, and can't put enough combat strength on to stop a huge US counter invasion is just wasting assets.

That's where the Japanese are in this. They can't keep their navy in the Hawaiian islands. They lack the underway replenishment ships for that. They can't establish a forward naval base either.
The US since 1905 had been planning and preparing for an advance across the Pacific. They had the means to do that.

The Japanese can't even keep supplies flowing to a base so far from Japan. The logistics are a fail.

The result is the Japanese lose trying to take Hawaii. It simply isn't possible for them to do.
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Old 25 Jun 15, 23:59
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Originally Posted by T. A. Gardner View Post
Bottom line is if you can't take Oahu, you can't take Hawaii.

It's the same thing going the other direction. If the US can't take the airfield, harbor, main base in an island group or atoll, they can't control the atoll. That is why they invade places like Tarawa and crush the Japanese. That eliminates any possibility of a counter attack.

Taking a couple of other Hawaiian islands you can't supply, can't support, and can't put enough combat strength on to stop a huge US counter invasion is just wasting assets.

That's where the Japanese are in this. They can't keep their navy in the Hawaiian islands. They lack the underway replenishment ships for that. They can't establish a forward naval base either.
The US since 1905 had been planning and preparing for an advance across the Pacific. They had the means to do that.

The Japanese can't even keep supplies flowing to a base so far from Japan. The logistics are a fail.

The result is the Japanese lose trying to take Hawaii. It simply isn't possible for them to do.
Pretty much, though I forgot to add in my last lines that even if "He" manages to take the out lying islands, their largely going to be abandoned when the fleet withdraws to refuel and or rearm, it is likely at this point that the remains of the USN in the area will pounce on the transports and what few escorts remain. Two weeks after the attacks take place the first transports arrive being in new men and equipment and some new planes, two weeks later a much larger convoy will arrive... bringing in more troops and lots more planes. Further more if some of the tanks are lost, the USN can use their existing oil tankers and probably conscript a few civilian ones to resupply as fast as possible.

So if for some odd reason he wants the carriers back out their in say eight weeks (give them enough time to repair, rearm and bring in replacement planes and crews), hes going to find that the defenses are even stronger, and the planes have been largely replaced. And his forces on the out lying islands in increasingly helpless positions. The fighters and bombers flown to the island(s) are unusable due to at the lest a lack of fuel and ordnance. Their being shelled heavily by USN cruisers and destroyers, and the Army is prepping to take them back.

Though doing that means hes not doing a lot of the Indochina invasions... which would put the allies in a some what better position...

Another problem is if he is using a lot more battleships than the historical raid did, that is going to tip off the US intelligence units that something big is going down. Which might translate into a different reaction on the US forces...
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Old 26 Jun 15, 13:55
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Nebfer,
Its funny that You think that Nagumo had attained his goals and was justified in fearing and avoiding encounters with US CVs, when he has 6 CVs, more than at any time in the war (in Midway he had 4 and was missing the 2 best carriers, much better than Hiryu and Soryu) and the US could have at most 3 in the area and they are unlikely to be together (as You know they had 2 and separated and with low fuel, etc,)

The Japanese are not going to abandon Mauai and Kauai, with planes, troops, subs, warships, etc, any more than they abandonned Rabaul, Wewak, Wake, etc, when the CVs left. Especially since the US have no CVs, BBs, etc, unless they remove them from the Atlantic, where the Germans are having the 2nd happy time.

Lahaina roads-Maui is likely to take over Truk's role as the frontline base. A good place to base Yamato, CVs, etc, after 4 months of expansion. Musashi, etc, would rotate bases between Ceylon-Madagascar-Singapore

Last edited by Draco; 26 Jun 15 at 14:04..
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Old 26 Jun 15, 15:16
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Why would the US have no CV? If the Japanese were still attacking Pearl the CV's would not have proceeded there.
The majority of the US fleet would now be at sea. The Japanese have no way to stop all the destroyers and cruisers from steaming and they would. The ships at sea would rendezvous and form a fleet just as many of them did historically.

As the original attack shows the second strike would meet aerial opposition and the third would face stiff opposition.

Japan loses the war right from the get go simply because they sacrifice their air wing for little return.

I'd also like him to explain how a larger, slower, Japanese fleet with a huge convoy of very slow transports is going to avoid detection in route to Hawaii and how they will not be missed when they steam.


Draco rambles on and on about results but gives nothing but vague generalities about how they are achieved. When shown conclusive proof his plan cannot be carried out, the results are unobtainable, he persists in saying the results would occur without even trying to make a rebuttal to opposing arguments.
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Old 26 Jun 15, 16:33
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Originally Posted by Draco View Post
Nebfer,
Its funny that You think that Nagumo had attained his goals and was justified in fearing and avoiding encounters with US CVs, when he has 6 CVs, more than at any time in the war (in Midway he had 4 and was missing the 2 best carriers, much better than Hiryu and Soryu) and the US could have at most 3 in the area and they are unlikely to be together (as You know they had 2 and separated and with low fuel, etc,)
Don't ask me ask HIM, did you read his orders? per his orders he was to make one attack split into two waves. His mission was to destroy US Air forces present the battleships, and any carriers if present.

He wiped out a fair number of US planes, so that was done. The carriers where not at pearl and he did not know where they where, the battleships were their and he plastered them. So per orders job is effectively done. So why stay out their and risk it? The Weather is getting bad, and the fuel situation with the strike force is getting critical.

If he had done a third wave, he will have faced 50+ fighters and a fully maned and operational AA system, the end result would of been the strike group instead of losing some 50-555ish planes (including write offs) it will have lost over 100 planes with a lot less to show for it in that third wave.

Quote:
The Japanese are not going to abandon Mauai and Kauai, with planes, troops, subs, warships, etc, any more than they abandonned Rabaul, Wewak, Wake, etc, when the CVs left. Especially since the US have no CVs, BBs, etc, unless they remove them from the Atlantic, where the Germans are having the 2nd happy time.

Lahaina roads-Maui is likely to take over Truk's role as the frontline base. A good place to base Yamato, CVs, etc, after 4 months of expansion. Musashi, etc, would rotate bases between Ceylon-Madagascar-Singapore
Why would the US carriers proceed to Pearl? If things are as bad as you want them to be, the US carriers will be ordered to San Francisco.


The fact is your task force is also going to have to withdraw at some point, no IJN ship can not stay for to long from their operational bases for to long, to the same extent the USN has the same problem, but the USN had thought about that issue for decades, and the IJN did not.

The Carriers only have enough bombs and other such ordnance to do about 6 - 8 or so sorties, so after 4 or 5 days your completely out of ordnance and have to go back to Japan to rearm. Never mind the fact that the weather where the IJN carriers are was bad enough from the 9th to the 17th (AFAIK) they could not conduct air operations. The weather was bad enough on the 7th that it did impact landing operations (I believe the last ones were landing at around 1 pm or so).

The USN Destroyers and Cruisers will most likely say hi to the transports before heading for San Fran, As will any battleship still active. As your night attack will be a joke compared to the real attack, and will leave a number of ships untouched.

If your bringing a large enough fleet to deal with this contingency, then the USN will notice it, and be more alarmed as it means somethings up.
More so if they are close to the islands before the air attack takes place to land them as soon as possible after the attack starts, as if their 200 miles away from the islands when the air attack starts then the landings will be taking place at lest 12 hours later, if you want them to land say within an hour or two of the attack they run the risk of being spotted long before the air attack starts.

If things are bad at Pearl, they will likely send ships over from the Atlantic fleet, oh wait they did historically... But here they probably will send even more due to the landings...

The problem here is your tying up a lot of transport capacity that is not being used to secure the oil and other resources the Japanese wanted, and allowing a strong US military presence in the area to be largely uncontested.
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Old 26 Jun 15, 17:06
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According to You the orders excluded attacking seaplane tenders, CA, CL, DD, etc, I wonder why the pilots disobeyed.

First You state that Nagumo is justified to leave at flank speed, heading N (where he has zero chance of encountering 1 to 3 US CVs. He is running away as if he were the underdog), because there might be US CVs around and then You state that he left because there were no CVs to attack and his mission was done.

First You state that he had destroyed the planes and then You state that he did well not to launch a 3rd wave to destroy the planes, invaluable fuel tanks (which they attacked in every other raid), because US planes would have caused heavy losses.

He could have easily launched a 3rd, small wave with only Zeroes to finish off the planes, then launched a 4th, large wave to bomb the tanks, CAs, etc, The simple fact of lingering in an area with the mightiest task force in the world to date upped enormously the probability of sinking a carrier or 2. The most important objective.

OTL the USN was so dumb as to order individual carriers (one of which had lost part of its limited complement to friendly fire when her planes landed in Oahu) to search for the huge IJN fleet ASAP after refueling, yet You think that during the attack, they're going to order a CV with little fuel, etc, to run away to SD.

It is so absurd for the huge fleet to run away northward as it is for the actual underdog to send invaluable individual carriers to chase the mighty fleet with little chance of survival if they locate it.
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