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  #1  
Old 20 Jun 15, 19:33
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Occupation of Kauai, Maui, Lahaina Roads & Palawan on 7 Dec, 1941 (8 Dec in Palawan

Kauai, Maui & Lahaina roads were poorly defended. Jauai and Maui had airfields. Kauai provided an excellent land base very close to PH, not too far from Midway and within range of G4Ms from the Marshalls. So G4Ms could continue pounding PH, Midway, the Main Island, etc, long after 7 Dec, 1941 (8 Dec in Palawan).

Maui provided a good land base in the middle of the islands for G4Ms to pound the Main Island, etc, and for fighters to protect ships anchored in Lahaina Roads.

Lahaina Roads provided a large, protected anchorage for the fleet in the middle of the Hawaiian Islands.

Therefore, occupying these weak areas on Dec 7 effectively neutralizes and denyed the Hawaiian Islands to the USN.

Mindoro and the large island of Palawan were weakly defended and are situated strategically between Borneo and Luzon, where the strongest US forces were concentrated. G4Ms can fly from Formosa to Mindoro and Palawan. Planes from Palawan can dominate the waters between Borneo and Luzon and suport landings in Borneo. Planes from Mindoro can easily bomb Luzon.

British Borneo had 150 oil wells a refinery and was most valuable. Yet Japan neglected it in the early stages of the war, allowing the British to sabotage the wells and installations.

In this scenario, Japan does not invade less important or strongly defended areas such as Malaya, Luzon, HK, the Gilberts, Wake, Guam, etc, in December 1941. Instead it invades on the first day only poorly defended B. Borneo (capturing intact the oil wells and redinery), Palawan, Mindoro, Kauai, Maui and practically undefended Lahaina Roads.

The 6 IJN CVs plus Ryujo do not run away after 2 waves, but remain in the area to support the landings and destroy returning USN CVs and other ships in the area (a CA was in Johnston and many cargo ships were en route to Hawaii from both sides).

Kenda models the PH attack after the raid on Taranto, using torpedoes. He launches the first wave at dusk with 200 planes on 6 Dec. All the planes carry bombs and concentrate on destroying the planes and AAA.

A 2nd wave of 100 Kates with torpedoes and 10 Vals with chute-flares attacks at 22:00 on 6 Dec sinking or seriously damaging most of the ships.

a 3rd wave with 90 Kates with torpedoes attacks again at 03:00.

A 4th wave with 80 Kates with 800 kg bombs, 120 Vals with 250 kg bombs & 50 Zeroes attacks at dawn to blow up the tank farms, damage ships in dry dock, the sub base, barracks, port facilities, etc,

Then the carrier fleet splits, 3 CVs and Ryujo support the landings in Kauai and 3 CVs support the landings in Maui.

Since the invasion of Malaya is delayed, most of the planes in Indochina fly to Formosa by 5 Dec to bomb the PI much more heavily than OTL and support the landings in Mindoro. The remaining CVLs and all the plane tenders support the landings in weak B. Borneo and Palawan.

By 9 Dec Japan has secured oil and invaluable bases with few casualties and most importantly, strong US forces are stranded and useless in the PI, Wake, Hawaii, Midway, Johnston and Guam.

Japan then captures Dutch Borneo while the British invade Thailand according to plan, causing war to be declared by Thailand on Britain, so the British have to fight the Thais while Japan invades along the coast.
Japan uses airfields captured in Borneo (much closer than those in Indochina used OTL) to destroy British planes and ships in Malaya, bomb Singapore and support 3 landings in Malaya and 3 in Sumatra in Jan 1942.
Since Japan has not invaded Luzon, HK, Wake, etc, it has a large force available to invade Sumatra and Malaya.

Thailand allows the Japanese to deploy troops in order to defeat the British invasion.

MacArthur has lost all his planes, many installations, Mindoro and Palawan and is completely isolated and being heavily bombed and shelled, but he still thinks that he can stop an invasion of Luzon.

Sumatra and Malaya fall in 5 weeks.

Most of the carrier fleet leaves Lahaina Roads for Japan on Dec 12 and prepares for the invasion of Ceylon in late Feb, 1942. IJN subs and raiders begin operating from Hawaii.

Japan does not invade extremely inhospitable Burma in order to close the Burma road and isolate China. Instead it invades invaluable Ceylon and weak Mauritius & Reunion (3 weeks into the invasion of Ceylon), effectively chasing the RN from the W and central Indian Ocean, isolating India, Burma and the Persian Gulf.

On 20 February Japan has only 1,500 men each in Mindoro, Palawan, Kauai and Maui, 8,000 each in Borneo and Malaya and sends 30,000 to invade Ceylon from Thailand and 18,000 to invade Java from Sumatra. Ceylon and Java fall in 5 weeks. Carrier planes support the invasion of Ceylon and when an airfield in captured, twin engine bombers fly from Thailand to support the invasion much more effectively than carrier planes can.

Planes from Sumatra support the invasion of Java and when an airfield is captured, planes operate from W Java to finish the invasion.
Java fall and Ceylon fall in 5 weeks after several landings.

In the W Japan invades New Caledonia on 21 Dec, 1942, using the 2 CVs which remained in Lahaina Road when most of the carriers returned to Japan.
Japan also invades Port Moresby on 29 Dec and Rabaul on 11 Feb with the same carriers.

Japan then offers Australia peace and 1 million t of oil in exchange for Tasmania and Papua-New Guinea or invasion. Australia knows that without Hawaii, Port Moresby and New Caledonia, Australia cannot be supplied for months and that it cannot defend Tasmania against the IJN any more than it could defend New Guinea, so it agrees.

Last edited by Draco; 21 Jun 15 at 12:27..
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  #2  
Old 20 Jun 15, 20:04
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Let's just take Hawaii for now.

Quote:
Kauai, Maui & Lahaina roads were poorly defended. Jauai and Maui had airfields. Kauai provided an excellent land base very close to PH, not too far from Midway and within range of G4Ms from the Marshalls. So G4Ms could continue pounding PH, Midway, the Main Island, etc, long after 7 Dec, 1941 (8 Dec in Palawan).

Maui provided a good land base in the middle of the islands for G4Ms to pound the Main Island, etc, and for fighters to protect ships anchored in Lahaina Roads.

Lahaina Roads provided a large, protected anchorage for the fleet in the middle of the Hawaiian Islands.

Therefore, occupying these weak areas on Dec 7 effectively neutralizes and denyed the Hawaiian Islands to the USN.


1. The Japanese have no means of sustaining or keeping a fleet off the Hawaiian islands on a long term (weeks) basis. That is an unalterable fact here.

2. The islands and locations in question have no facilities or ports to speak of on them. An anchorage is not a port.
For example, Ulithi atoll in 1944 became a major US Navy anchorage. It was also something of a port. The US brought mobile floating drydocks in (something the Japanese never had), repair ships (the Japanese turned most of theirs into aircraft carriers pre-war), tenders, supply ships, supply barges, and other service ships such that it was now a mobile base / port.
The Japanese don't have that capacity.

3. As a IJN operation the IJN has just 7 SNLF available in December 1940 (1st and 2nd Sasebo SNLF, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, Yokosuka SNLF, 1s and 2nd Kure SNLF). These are all battalion sized units of about 800 to 1000 men armed as light infantry.

4. We know historically, that the Japanese need about 4 to 6 months to build, stock, and begin operating an airfield of the sort suggested above. Fuel, munitions, spare parts, maintenance crew, etc., have to be delivered and off loaded to the field. A labor force of 1000 or more men would be required to build the field.

5. The bulk of the US Pacific Fleet would still be fully capable of fighting. Japan's carrier force lacks the wherewithal to take it out or cripple all the facilities on Oahu.

6. The USAAC after the historical PH raid still had:

42 Fully operational P-40 and P-36 along with another 49 under repair or being serviced.

That means if a third raid is launched it faces heavy fighter opposition and a fully manned and ready base. Casualties would be heavy leaving the Japanese little choice but to withdraw their naval forces to replenish in Japan.


7. The US Army has over 60,000 men on Oahu who are field forces, primarily in two infantry divisions. The US Navy still has the ships and shipping available to move them.

The result here would be... And let me make this absolutely clear... This is THE ONLY POSSIBLE RESULT:

Japan could land a SNLF on these islands. The landing force ships would be shot to pieces and much of the landing force lost in the attempt due to US Navy intervention.
What forces do get ashore could hold the island temporarily. There would be no ability to operate aircraft as the necessary supplies and airfield don't exist.
The US would isolate the invaders and then in a coordinated landing wipe them out.
Japan loses their entire expeditionary force in a debacle trying to establish a base on the Hawaiian islands.

Quote:
Therefore, occupying these weak areas on Dec 7 effectively neutralizes and denyed the Hawaiian Islands to the USN.
This statement is absolute and pure drivel. You cannot even give a scintilla of evidence that what you propose could occur with the results you give. It is impossible for the Japanese to establish, and maintain a base and garrison in the Hawaiian islands so long as the US holds Oahu in the manner they do.
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  #3  
Old 20 Jun 15, 20:17
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Quote:
Kenda models the PH attack after the raid on Taranto, using torpedoes. He launches the first wave at dusk with 200 planes on 6 Dec. All the planes carry bombs and concentrate on destroying the planes and AAA.

A 2nd wave of 100 Kates with torpedoes and 10 Vals with chute-flares attacks at 22:00 on 6 Dec sinking or seriously damaging most of the ships.

a 3rd wave with 90 Kates with torpedoes attacks again at 03:00.

A 4th wave with 80 Kates with 800 kg bombs, 120 Vals with 250 kg bombs & 50 Zeroes attacks at dawn to blow up the tank farms, damage ships in dry dock, the sub base, barracks, port facilities, etc,

Then the carrier fleet splits, 3 CVs and Ryujo support the landings in Kauai and 3 CVs support the landings in Maui.
Then there's this stupidity.

First, the Japanese pilots are not trained in night flying, cannot land on carriers at night, nor are equipped for night operations. The PH operation gives them less than 120 days to get things done. First, they have to have the torpedoes work in the shallow harbor. Now you have about 60 days to work on trying to suddenly train your carrier force on night operations. That isn't going to happen.

But, next comes worse... Since the US normally mans their radar and fighter control system from dusk to dawn the radar operators see the incoming raid and call it in to a fully manned control system. The officers on duty know nothing is expected at night and the raid is tracked. The USN is alerted and goes to GQ recalling all sailors to ships and prepares to get underway. They have nearly an hour to get ready now.
The US Army likewise calls an alert and starts to man defenses. Both services send aircraft to investigate the track. Surprise is lost and the Japanese face a hornet's nest of opposition.
At air fields ground crews hustle to disperse aircraft against the raid making losses far lower.
Worse, now, most of their targets are moving, many have sortied the harbor. Since the first wave isn't focused on ships, the fleet gets to sea and heads SouthEast and South putting them out of range of Japanese strikes by the time the second wave arrives. The raid is a total fail.

Ashore, casualties are much lighter due to the inaccurate night bombing. Many of the attacking planes are shot down by AA fire, coned in searchlights.
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Old 20 Jun 15, 20:52
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You know OTL the large forces involved in the PI, Malaya, Guam, etc, which are not operating. Much smaller forces can capture Palawan, Mindoro, Maui and Kauai much more easily.

Don't tell me that your brilliant US did not build a dock in Kauai and Maui in order to equip and supply airfields there or even for the locals to unload vehicles, food, equipment, etc,

The Japanese began operating captured airfields in Malaya, Borneo, etc, with captured fuel, right away.

The attack takes place at dusk, which means that the planes approached before Radar starts operating at dusk.
We know how effective the Hawaii Radar-scramble system was. Even if by miracle the Radar crews arrived long before dusk and the incompetent bureaucrats in command reacted adequately, it takes quite a while for pilots not ready to take off to scramble planes tighly parked in neat rows and without ammo.

Japanese engineers buildtbridges in Malaya, Burma, etc, extremely fast. They can certainly build anything they need.
Isn't it amazing that the primitive Japanese built much better defenses than Percival, Mac, the Dutch, Wake, etc, did?
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Old 20 Jun 15, 21:11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Draco View Post
You know OTL the large forces involved in the PI, Malaya, Guam, etc, which are not operating. Much smaller forces can capture Palawan, Mindoro, Maui and Kauai much more easily.

Don't tell me that your brilliant US did not build a dock in Kauai and Maui in order to equip and supply airfields there or even for the locals to unload vehicles, food, equipment, etc,
Okay I won't. But, they didn't. The strips on these islands were dirt ones for emergency landings, nothing more. There was no fuel, no services, nada, zip-point-$h!+.
The US military didn't build any new harbor or port facilities either. They were both unnecessary and unbuildable in peacetime as the existing small ones were civilian owned.
A small dock for small craft and what not isn't going to work for unloading a freighter. Instead, the freighter has to anchor out and load everything into boats or lighters to take it to the pier.
That takes days to do. The ships will be sunk in the process just as they were everywhere else the Allies could get air power to reach them and bomb and strafe the snot out of them.

Quote:
The Japanese began operating captured airfields in Malaya, Borneo, etc, with captured fuel, right away.
The Japanese did that historically, except for the fuel part...

Quote:
The attack takes place at dusk, which means that the planes approached before Radar starts operating at dusk.
We know how effective the Hawaii Radar-scramble system was. Even if by miracle the Radar crews arrived long before dusk and the incompetent bureaucrats in command reacted adequately, it takes quite a while for pilots not ready to take off to scramble planes tighly parked in neat rows and without ammo.
That's not what you said. You said:

Quote:
He launches the first wave at dusk with 200 planes on 6 Dec
That means they arrive about 90 minutes later over Oahu in darkness. It also means they return in darkness. The second wave launches at night and returns at night.


Quote:
Japanese engineers buildtbridges in Malaya, Burma, etc, extremely fast. They can certainly build anything they need.
Isn't it amazing that the primitive Japanese built much better defenses than Percival, Mac, the Dutch, Wake, etc, did?
Prove it. The Japanese improvised walkways for soldiers single file with no heavy gear to cross a destroyed bridge quickly, but making something vehicles could pass over took weeks.

One of your masterpieces in Japanese bridge building...



It isn't amazing you know nothing about Japanese combat engineering capacity.

Where did the Japanese build better defenses? Give some examples.
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Old 20 Jun 15, 21:21
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On Japanese airfield construction and operation:

http://www.historynet.com/japans-fat...d-war-ii-2.htm

Quote:
Depots where engines could be changed and major repairs made were few and scattered. The Fourth Air Army’s heavy equipment for engine changes and major structural repair on New Guinea, for instance, was poor. Periodic inspections, repairs, overhauls and even routine servicing fell off because of maintenance shortfalls. The Japanese had to abandon many aircraft during advances or retreats that easily could have been repaired at rear areas. Poor repair also denied them the opportunity to use worn-out aircraft in a training role.

Aviation fuel in New Guinea was of poor quality and resulted in engine problems. The army’s main aircraft repair base at Halmahera, 1,000 miles from the front lines, never functioned adequately because it lacked equipment and mechanics. High humidity and rains corroded metal parts and wires. Electrical equipment grew fungus. Lubricating oils evaporated or ran off equipment. Allied bombings killed skilled mechanics and delayed aircraft maintenance. Ground crews suffered attrition from out-of-control aircraft, spinning propellers and from working around heavy objects.
Quote:
Half the aircraft of the 23rd Air Flotilla lost in the first three months of the war were casualties of crackups on bad runways — partially due to weak landing gear and poor brakes, but mainly from bad terrain. Another 30 percent of the flotilla’s aircraft wore out and had to be scrapped. Only 18 of the 88 aircraft it wrote off went down in combat.
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Old 20 Jun 15, 21:47
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They're referring to New Guinea, while Japan is being trounced all over the place.

It is BS, lubricating oil evaporates at 220 C. It is not going to evaporate below 45 C in New Guinea.
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Old 20 Jun 15, 21:56
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Draco View Post
They're referring to New Guinea, while Japan is being trounced all over the place.

It is BS, lubricating oil evaporates at 220 C. It is not going to evaporate below 45 C in New Guinea.
That was true in New Guinea even in 1941 - 42. It is also true for bases built elsewhere. Japan spent months trying to build an airfield on Guadalcanal. The US arrived, invaded, stomped the Japanese forces on the island, then in a week US engineers re-graded the airfield (it had an undesirable hump in the middle), lengthened it, and opened it for business.
Then they added more hard surface, added drainage ditches, added a proper crown to get better drainage too. After that they added taxiways, hard stands, revetments, and all sorts of other useful additions.
All of that wasn't going to even happen for the Japanese. Their runway would be uneven, not level, have poor drainage (meaning useless in rainy conditions), and not have much in the way of amenities.

Oil does evaporate.

http://www.researchgate.net/publicat...oleum_products

The rate of evaporation depends on several things, temperature among them.

Aside from that, your response is a combination strawman and red herring. Neither has anything to do with how long it would take the Japanese to build and make operational an airfield on an Hawaiian island.
That you simply say it would happen is meaningless, as you have next to no credibility in making unsupported statements. When pressed you stop responding or change the argument.
I provide sources and specific details in many of my responses. You need to start doing the same.

Last edited by T. A. Gardner; 20 Jun 15 at 22:44..
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Old 20 Jun 15, 23:17
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I obviously meant the first wave attacks at dusk. You cannot attack planes in the dark.

Malaya is no island and they did capture airfields with fuel, food, ammo, etc, read a little before You comment.

Your reference and I specified lubricating oil, not crude oil (full ol volatile fractions), which your second reference addresses.
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Old 21 Jun 15, 00:13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by T. A. Gardner View Post
That was true in New Guinea even in 1941 - 42. It is also true for bases built elsewhere. Japan spent months trying to build an airfield on Guadalcanal. The US arrived, invaded, stomped the Japanese forces on the island, then in a week US engineers re-graded the airfield (it had an undesirable hump in the middle), lengthened it, and opened it for business.

Oil does evaporate.

http://www.researchgate.net/publicat...oleum_products

The rate of evaporation depends on several things, temperature among them.

Aside from that, your response is a combination strawman and red herring. Neither has anything to do with how long it would take the Japanese to build and make operational an airfield on an Hawaiian island.
That you simply say it would happen is meaningless, as you have next to no credibility in making unsupported statements. When pressed you stop responding or change the argument.
I provide sources and specific details in many of my responses. You need to start doing the same.
AFAIK The Guadalcanal airfield they built was started in Early June, when some 2500 workers arrived, a bit later some 250 more arrived to help.

IIRC they got extra saki rations the day before we invaded (on August 7th I believe) for completing it ahead of schedule.


Here's his time table for his Pearl harbor
First wave has 200 planes, and supposedly launches at around 6
Target is planes and flak emplacements

Second Wave with 110 planes launches at 10 pm
Target is ships

Third wave with 90 planes launches at 3 am
Target is ships

Fourth wave launches at 7 am with 250 aircraft (50 are fighters)
Target are oil tanks, and port facility's

Notes: Sun set is about 6PM, sun rise is 7AM at this time frame.

I hope that these planes are not individually tasked with one wave, as that would mean that he has some 650 aircraft, when his carriers could only have at most 480
The Six carriers at pearl historically had about 410 aircraft with 360 used.

At the lest hes using about 320ish aircraft (aircraft of one wave can not use the preceding wave as their is not enough time turn around the aircraft, I.e. 4th wave should be able to use aircraft used on the 1st & 2nd waves, and 3rd wave could use 1st wave planes, but 4th wave could not use 3rd wave planes).

One issue is that with 4 or 5 hours between the attacks is that he's cutting it close to when his next attack is returning he will have decks with planes being prepped to take off.

Example 1st wave takes off at 6pm, 2nd wave is to take off at 10pm should be started to get prepped at about 9 pm, The 18-20 planes per carrier of the second strike should take them at lest about 45 minutes to bring up to the flight deck, spot them, arm them and warm up their engines, add in roughly 10 minutes to launch them. Though this assumes that they will take roughly the same amount of time as they would take during the day...

The problems is that with a round trip of about three and a half hours (90 min to get their, 30 min for the attack and 90 min back, historical first wave was launched at around 6 - 6:10 AM, and engaged the target(s) at 7:50 am) the first wave will be returning by about 9:30 PM, so that the flight decks are loaded with aircraft starting to warm up their engines. So these aircraft will have to be brought down below decks (IJN Doctrine at the time is NO DECK PARKS), taking an half an hour or so, then the planes can land which will be done by about 11 pm, then the planes can be bought back up for the second wave, which will then be launching by about midnight.

They will be returning by about 330 AM but 3rd wave left by about 3 AM, though this dose depend on if the third wave is making use of 1st wave planes and how fast they can turn the aircraft around. Basic rearming and fueling should not be to long... But any repairs or maintenance issues could take a fair bit of time...

3rd Wave returns by about 6:30 Am, to find the decks are again full.
Note per IJN Doctrine Torpedoes where loaded on to their aircraft before they where brought up to the flight deck, Bombs however where loaded on the flight deck, with enough carts for about 6 to 10 aircraft at a time...
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  #11  
Old 21 Jun 15, 01:09
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Originally Posted by Draco View Post
I obviously meant the first wave attacks at dusk. You cannot attack planes in the dark.
The Japanese can't attack at all in the dark. And, when the planes return to their carriers most of them end up either crashing on deck or ditching at sea. They can't land on their carriers at night.
Oh, another little problem: The Japanese don't have parachute flares or a means to illuminate targets like the British did at Taranto in 1940, or in 1944...

http://www.fischer-tropsch.org/prima...ort%200-12.pdf

Quote:
Malaya is no island and they did capture airfields with fuel, food, ammo, etc, read a little before You comment.
And, Japan operated how many aircraft in Malaysia from captured airfields prior to the fall of Singapore...?
Hint, the value was invented in Indian and passed on to the Arabs. The Maya had it too...

Quote:
Your reference and I specified lubricating oil, not crude oil (full ol volatile fractions), which your second reference addresses.


Even a little kid can understand this;

http://www.chem4kids.com/files/matter_evap.html

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Old 21 Jun 15, 01:22
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Originally Posted by T. A. Gardner View Post
That was true in New Guinea even in 1941 - 42. It is also true for bases built elsewhere. Japan spent months trying to build an airfield on Guadalcanal. The US arrived, invaded, stomped the Japanese forces on the island, then in a week US engineers re-graded the airfield (it had an undesirable hump in the middle), lengthened it, and opened it for business.
Then they added more hard surface, added drainage ditches, added a proper crown to get better drainage too. After that they added taxiways, hard stands, revetments, and all sorts of other useful additions.
All of that wasn't going to even happen for the Japanese. Their runway would be uneven, not level, have poor drainage (meaning useless in rainy conditions), and not have much in the way of amenities.
Even before the advent of the SeaBees, the Navy combed their ranks for professional construction workers. They were never barred by a social barrier that the Japanese faced. The Japanese were faced with elite engineers that used soldiers and forced labor. They couldn't compete with American engineers using experienced heavy equipment personnel. The massive amount of these people in America made a significant difference.
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Old 21 Jun 15, 01:29
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The Japanese never had this sort of thing going on either...









For B-29 bases in the Marianas the US brought in 3 suction dredgers to produce coral for the runways but also to build channels in the lagoons of atolls, and to make berths for transport ships.
They also brought in 5 asphalt batch plants to produce the tarmac for the runways.
That sort of level of construction was literally inconceivable to the Japanese military in WW 2.
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Old 21 Jun 15, 01:44
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Originally Posted by T. A. Gardner View Post
The Japanese never had this sort of thing going on either...









For B-29 bases in the Marianas the US brought in 3 suction dredgers to produce coral for the runways but also to build channels in the lagoons of atolls, and to make berths for transport ships.
They also brought in 5 asphalt batch plants to produce the tarmac for the runways.
That sort of level of construction was literally inconceivable to the Japanese military in WW 2.
Which is why they where in awe at how fast we could build a vastly better airfield than they could...

Though TA the Document mentions that the Type 0 Flare was in use sense 1937... Though it may not of been fully operational, more of an experimental model.
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Old 21 Jun 15, 02:03
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Originally Posted by Nebfer View Post
Which is why they where in awe at how fast we could build a vastly better airfield than they could...

Though TA the Document mentions that the Type 0 Flare was in use sense 1937... Though it may not of been fully operational, more of an experimental model.
The problem is it was never used operationally. The Japanese didn't attempt night time torpedo attacks using carrier aircraft. A big reason for that was the inability of the planes to operate from carriers at night.
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