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  #1  
Old 20 May 15, 01:36
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Sticking to Priorities and Common Sense in 1941.

The allies knew that Japan was amassing troops, planes, ships, etc, in Indochina to invade their territories and Britain was beginning to lose the battle of the Atlantic and even losing Indian Ocean shipping (transporting desperately needed food from Australia and NZ) to merchant raiders in 1941 and reacted extremely poorly.

In this scenario the allies decide on priority for Europe, but mobilize their fleets before Dec 7, 1941 in a much more sensical way to protect Atlantic & Med shipping, avoid having to supply Egypt around South Africa, protect Autralian supplies, Malaya and the DEI and open the French front in 1942 (instead of fighting in Egypt).

Fleet redeployment in Nov 1941:
1) All the allied CVs, most of of the CAs and CLs and 67% of USN DDs are deployed in the Atlantic and Med.
2) All the allied submarines, torpedo boats, frigates, slow BBs and most of the mines & mine layers are sent to the W Pacific.
3) Wake, Guam, Midway, Rabaul, Port Moresby, New Caledonia, Johnston, etc, are abandoned and those guns, men, planes, etc, are sent to Sumatra & Java.
4) Most of the remaining Pacific fleet and air force is deployed to the SW Pacific. Leaving minimum forces in PH, San Diego, Alaska, Panama, PI, Guam, etc,
5) Malaya and the DEI are heavily mined. Northern Malaya is abandoned, the BA digs in in S Malaya and RAF bombers are deployed in Penang, Singapore, Sumatra and Java, where the bases are safe from the IJA.
6) According to priorities, all the Mosquitoes, Spitfires, Wildcats, B-17s, B-24s, B-25s, B-26s, P-40s, P-38s, TBFs, SBDs, Lancasters, Halifaxes, Sea Hurricanes, etc, comming out of production are used in Europe and all the inferior Stirlings, Hurricanes, Beauforts, Hudson's, Marylands, P-39s, A-20s, Buffaloes, SB2Us, Swordfish, Albacores, Fulmars, Venturas, etc, are sent to the SW Pacific. The British teach skip bombing to American, Dutch and Anzac pilots in the Pacific, before the Japanese attacks, so they can sink many ships with cheap bombs, instead of using expensive torpedoes.

The PH attack and German and Italian declaration of war prompt these movements.
The Marines in Iceland, Royal Marines, Free French and Polish forces, land in Pantelleria in late Dec 1941, supported by 5 CVs, 5 BBs, 8 CAs, 8 CLs and 36 DDs and twin engine planes from Malta and Gibraltar (which fly to Malta after dropping their bombs). With Pantelleria secure, while air fields are expanded, port facilities created, etc, the invasion fleet wipes out the Italian fleet. The invasion fleet then returns to Pantelleria to support the invasion of Tunisia (supported also with planes from Pantelleria and Gibraltar). Whuie Tunisia is being secured, the allies land in Sardinia.

While Pantelleria is being invaded, the rest of the allied carriers wipe out the few German capital ships and after the allies land in the French Riviera, and together with a massive fleet of BBs, CAs, landing ships, etc, the rest of the CVs support the landing in Dieppe (which also receives massive air support from Britain that wipes out the LW in the area before the landing).

The invasion of Pantelleria isolates Rommel completely. Instead of all the material having to travel for months to reach Egypt, Iran and India, a huge amount of supplies rapidly arrives in France and immediately enters service. The enormous number of escorted convoys concentrated in the N Atlantic proves devastating for the U-boats
Landing in Sardinia in the spring of 1942 forces Hitler to divert forces from the USSR to Sicily, Italy and France. Roosevelt conditions L-L for the USSR and the landing in the French Riviera on Stalin attacking Manchuria.

The IJN suffer heavy losses to mines and the massive submarines, BBs and bombers. The troops transports and cargo ships suffer devastating casualties to skip bombing.
The IJA suffers heavy losses in S Malaya to the dug in BA and the shells from the BBs and bombs (it loses 1/3 of its forces before landing to skip bombing, subs, mines and BBs. so it never captures Singapore, Sumatra or Java.

In March 1942 the IJA presses the IJN to eliminate the old allied BBs so the DEI can be conquered. Yamato is sent to reinforce the remaining CVs and BBs (Japan has lost 5 BBs and 2 CVs and the allies 7 BBs). However, Yamato's guns are not so accurate as the old BBs' guns and Yamato is a bigger target. She is sunk by 7 submarine torpedoes, 6 aerial torpedoes, 19 16" shells and 9 1,000 lb bombs.

The large submarine fleet based in the SW Pacific, with plenty of local fuel and well supplied from Ceylon and Perth sinks or damages hundreds of ships per month over a huge area.

When the whole modern allied fleet arrives in the Pacific the IJN is wiped out within 2 months.

The invasion of France and destruction of the U-boat fleet means that a huge amount of materiel is arriving in France and being used, instead o in Britain, Egypt, etc, and being stored.
Before Stalin attacks Manchuria, he receives 5,000 tanks and planes, 100,000 trucks, etc, from the US in Vladivostok, which are used there against Japan in Manchuria, Sakhalin and China. All this materiel enters service against the axis much faster than if it had to be transported by train all the way to the W USSR. Instead of being idle for years, the troops in the E USSR are extremely useful fighting Japan in 1942. Soviet subs and planes also begin sinking Japanese ships and most importantly, the huge allied sub fleet can now refuel and resupply in Vladivostok, etc,

After losing its navy and its industry in Manchuria in weeks and suffering terrible losses to the USSR and China and being blockaded by a huge fleet and bombed daily from the continent, Japan has to capitulate in late 1942.

After the invasions of Tunisia and France the Vichy French join the allies.
The loss of the Italian navy and Sardinia and the Italian forces in the USSR and the complete isolation of the troops in Libya (facing the allies in Tunisia) force Italy to capitulate and join the allies in 1942.
Not having lost a lot of troops in Africa, Sicily and Italy, and counting with a large number of French troops and pilots and abundant supplies, the allies do very well in France.

Being extremely busy in France and the USSR. Hitler cannot afford to invade Italy when Mussolini is ousted or to continue mass murdering Jews, etc, or fighting in Yugoslavia or holding Greece. The allies can supply, reinforce and provide air support for Yugoslavia and Greece, whence the allies bomb and advance into Austria, Romania, Hungary and Bulgaria in 1943.

After losing French iron ore and food, Romanian oil and troops and suffering enormous losses in 2 rapidly advancing fronts and with German production severly limited. Hitler, Goering, Himmler, etc, are arrested by the WM and Germany capitulates in 1943.
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  #2  
Old 20 May 15, 09:29
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Wow-where to start?

Firstly, the obvious: minefields are useful only when covered by air power or coastal artillery. Otherwise minesweepers simply clear them.

Secondly, US subs in 41-42 were not of a design nor training to really make a dynamic contribution, and US torpedoes were very poor.

Thirdly, besides the political backlash from abandoning bases, the loss of Midway would have forced the USN to cover a much broader front than it had to in RL.

As usual, your scenario ignores technical facts, political realities, and military science.
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  #3  
Old 20 May 15, 10:24
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  #4  
Old 20 May 15, 10:51
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Arnold J Rimmer View Post
Wow-where to start?

Firstly, the obvious: minefields are useful only when covered by air power or coastal artillery. Otherwise minesweepers simply clear them.

Secondly, US subs in 41-42 were not of a design nor training to really make a dynamic contribution, and US torpedoes were very poor.

Thirdly, besides the political backlash from abandoning bases, the loss of Midway would have forced the USN to cover a much broader front than it had to in RL.

As usual, your scenario ignores technical facts, political realities, and military science.
I am sending thousands of planes to the mined areas (all the inferior fighter and bomber models) and training the crews in skip bombing (which the British had been using for a while). In the list of inferior planes sent to the SW Pacific I forgot the Blenheims and Beaufighters. It is also defficult to sweep mines with a large sub and BB fleet lurking around.

The few US and Dutch subs in the area did quite a bit of damage (despite the lousy USN torpedoes and the Japanese blowing up the torpedo depot in the PI in the first days of the invasion, a US sub sank a ship transporting all the Japanese oil drilling and refining experts. If one adds minefields, all the remaining allied subs and the large old BB fleet and air force and the coastal guns, planes and troops in Wake, Guam, Midway, the PI, etc, the IJN and IJA have a hell of a time dominating the air, coasts and interior of the invaded areas.

It is far more difficult for Japan to occupy, supply and reinforce Midway, Port Moresby, the Aleutians, etc, while it is experiencing heavy losses in the SW Pacific and it faces a huge submarine force, than for the USN to hold for a few months, until the whole fleet returns and wipes out the IJN, while the USSR captures Manchuria, etc,

Last edited by Draco; 20 May 15 at 10:58..
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Old 20 May 15, 10:55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Draco View Post
I am sending thousands of planes to the mined areas (all the inferior fighter and bomber models) and training the crews in skip bombing (which the British had been using for a while). In the list of inferior planes sent to the SW Pacific I forgot the Blenheims and Beaufighters.
Won't work.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Draco View Post
The few US and Dutch subs in the area did quite a bit of damage (despite the lousy USN torpedoes. A US sub sank a ship transporting all the Japanese oil drilling and refining experts. If one adds minefields, all the remaining allied subs and the large old BB fleet and air force and the coastal guns, planes and troops in Wake, Guam, Midway, the PI, etc, the IJN and IJA have a hell of a time dominating the air, coasts and interior of the invaded areas.
Again, a complete ignorance of the use & effect of subs.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Draco View Post
It is far more difficult for Japan to occupy, supply and reinforce Midway, Port Moresby, the Aleutians, etc, while it is experiencing heavy losses in the SW Pacific and it faces a huge submarine force, than for the USN to hold for a few months, until the whole fleet returns and wipes out the IJN, while the USSR captured Manchuria, etc,
Nonsense. There's no huge submarine force. You're once again displaying complete ignorance or willful disregard of design, logistics, and doctrine.

I wish I was playing you instead of Stryker in WiP. I would have won by now.
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Old 20 May 15, 11:04
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The Germans and Italians had very few merchant ships and tankers and the British subs in the Med suffered enromous losses (they could be easily spotted in the shallow, clear waters in sunny skies). In contrast the Japanese merchant and war fleets were huge and they never developed half decent antisub tactics until 1945.

Yet You are using a lot of allied subs with good torpedoes in the Atlantic and Med and very few subs with few and bad torpedoes in the SW Pacific.

Just moving the USN torpedoes from the PI where they can be destroyed to Singapore or Surabaya makes a big difference.
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Old 20 May 15, 11:09
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Draco View Post
The Germans and Italians had very few merchant ships and tankers and the British subs in the Med suffered enromous losses (they could be easily spotted in the shallow, clear waters in sunny skies). In contrast the Japanese merchant and war fleets were huge and they never developed half decent antisub tactics until 1945.

Yet You are using a lot of allied subs with good torpedoes in the Atlantic and Med and very few subs with few and bad torpedoes in the SW Pacific.

Just moving the USN torpedoes from the PI where they can be destroyed to Singapore or Surabaya makes a big difference.
When did the US have bases at Singapore or Surabaya?

This is why your scenarios never work, its like you're basing things off Axis and Allies.

British and Dutch bases will not have spare parts or ordinance for US subs. The S class in '41 and early 42 were fine for short-ranged work in the ETO, but not much use in the PTO with its long spaces. It wasn't until the Gato class arrived in mid/late '42 that US subs really started to get rolling, and it was '43 before they started being felt.

Logistics, Draco: they are the sinews of war.
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Old 20 May 15, 13:27
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Hart did deploy without much preparation and just before the Japanese attack most of his ships to the British (Borneo, Australia, etc,) and Dutch bases. Had he done it in time, with all the mechanics, clercks, ammo, spares, etc, from the PI and receiving a much more powerful BB, sub and DD fleet to form an invincible force with the British and Dutch, he would have been much better supplied and prepared for the Japanese attack and without exposing his bases and ammo dumps to Japanese twin engine bombers from Formosa.

The USN quickly adapted to lesser facilities or started from scratch in Perth, New Caledonia, NZ, the Solomons, etc, deploying with time to Singapore, Surabaya, etc, with access to further repair facilities in Ceylon, Australia, South Africa, etc, is much easier.

It is also much easier to defend Singapore and invaluable Java and Sumatra with fuel and British and Dutch forces already there, very far from Japan and close to other British Colonies than to defend useless New Guinea and capture and defend the useless Solomons, Gilberts, Marhsalls, etc,
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Old 20 May 15, 13:34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Draco View Post
The allies knew that Japan was amassing troops, planes, ships, etc, in Indochina to invade their territories and Britain was beginning to lose the battle of the Atlantic and even losing Indian Ocean shipping (transporting desperately needed food from Australia and NZ) to merchant raiders in 1941 and reacted extremely poorly.

In this scenario the allies decide on priority for Europe, but mobilize their fleets before Dec 7, 1941 in a much more sensical way to protect Atlantic & Med shipping, avoid having to supply Egypt around South Africa, protect Autralian supplies, Malaya and the DEI and open the French front in 1942 (instead of fighting in Egypt).

Fleet redeployment in Nov 1941:
1) All the allied CVs, most of of the CAs and CLs and 67% of USN DDs are deployed in the Atlantic and Med.
2) All the allied submarines, torpedo boats, frigates, slow BBs and most of the mines & mine layers are sent to the W Pacific.
3) Wake, Guam, Midway, Rabaul, Port Moresby, New Caledonia, Johnston, etc, are abandoned and those guns, men, planes, etc, are sent to Sumatra & Java.
4) Most of the remaining Pacific fleet and air force is deployed to the SW Pacific. Leaving minimum forces in PH, San Diego, Alaska, Panama, PI, Guam, etc,
5) Malaya and the DEI are heavily mined. Northern Malaya is abandoned, the BA digs in in S Malaya and RAF bombers are deployed in Penang, Singapore, Sumatra and Java, where the bases are safe from the IJA.
6) According to priorities, all the Mosquitoes, Spitfires, Wildcats, B-17s, B-24s, B-25s, B-26s, P-40s, P-38s, TBFs, SBDs, Lancasters, Halifaxes, Sea Hurricanes, etc, comming out of production are used in Europe and all the inferior Stirlings, Hurricanes, Beauforts, Hudson's, Marylands, P-39s, A-20s, Buffaloes, SB2Us, Swordfish, Albacores, Fulmars, Venturas, etc, are sent to the SW Pacific. The British teach skip bombing to American, Dutch and Anzac pilots in the Pacific, before the Japanese attacks, so they can sink many ships with cheap bombs, instead of using expensive torpedoes.

The PH attack and German and Italian declaration of war prompt these movements.
The Marines in Iceland, Royal Marines, Free French and Polish forces, land in Pantelleria in late Dec 1941, supported by 5 CVs, 5 BBs, 8 CAs, 8 CLs and 36 DDs and twin engine planes from Malta and Gibraltar (which fly to Malta after dropping their bombs). With Pantelleria secure, while air fields are expanded, port facilities created, etc, the invasion fleet wipes out the Italian fleet. The invasion fleet then returns to Pantelleria to support the invasion of Tunisia (supported also with planes from Pantelleria and Gibraltar). Whuie Tunisia is being secured, the allies land in Sardinia.

While Pantelleria is being invaded, the rest of the allied carriers wipe out the few German capital ships and after the allies land in the French Riviera, and together with a massive fleet of BBs, CAs, landing ships, etc, the rest of the CVs support the landing in Dieppe (which also receives massive air support from Britain that wipes out the LW in the area before the landing).

The invasion of Pantelleria isolates Rommel completely. Instead of all the material having to travel for months to reach Egypt, Iran and India, a huge amount of supplies rapidly arrives in France and immediately enters service. The enormous number of escorted convoys concentrated in the N Atlantic proves devastating for the U-boats
Landing in Sardinia in the spring of 1942 forces Hitler to divert forces from the USSR to Sicily, Italy and France. Roosevelt conditions L-L for the USSR and the landing in the French Riviera on Stalin attacking Manchuria.

The IJN suffer heavy losses to mines and the massive submarines, BBs and bombers. The troops transports and cargo ships suffer devastating casualties to skip bombing.
The IJA suffers heavy losses in S Malaya to the dug in BA and the shells from the BBs and bombs (it loses 1/3 of its forces before landing to skip bombing, subs, mines and BBs. so it never captures Singapore, Sumatra or Java.

In March 1942 the IJA presses the IJN to eliminate the old allied BBs so the DEI can be conquered. Yamato is sent to reinforce the remaining CVs and BBs (Japan has lost 5 BBs and 2 CVs and the allies 7 BBs). However, Yamato's guns are not so accurate as the old BBs' guns and Yamato is a bigger target. She is sunk by 7 submarine torpedoes, 6 aerial torpedoes, 19 16" shells and 9 1,000 lb bombs.

The large submarine fleet based in the SW Pacific, with plenty of local fuel and well supplied from Ceylon and Perth sinks or damages hundreds of ships per month over a huge area.

When the whole modern allied fleet arrives in the Pacific the IJN is wiped out within 2 months.

The invasion of France and destruction of the U-boat fleet means that a huge amount of materiel is arriving in France and being used, instead o in Britain, Egypt, etc, and being stored.
Before Stalin attacks Manchuria, he receives 5,000 tanks and planes, 100,000 trucks, etc, from the US in Vladivostok, which are used there against Japan in Manchuria, Sakhalin and China. All this materiel enters service against the axis much faster than if it had to be transported by train all the way to the W USSR. Instead of being idle for years, the troops in the E USSR are extremely useful fighting Japan in 1942. Soviet subs and planes also begin sinking Japanese ships and most importantly, the huge allied sub fleet can now refuel and resupply in Vladivostok, etc,

After losing its navy and its industry in Manchuria in weeks and suffering terrible losses to the USSR and China and being blockaded by a huge fleet and bombed daily from the continent, Japan has to capitulate in late 1942.

After the invasions of Tunisia and France the Vichy French join the allies.
The loss of the Italian navy and Sardinia and the Italian forces in the USSR and the complete isolation of the troops in Libya (facing the allies in Tunisia) force Italy to capitulate and join the allies in 1942.
Not having lost a lot of troops in Africa, Sicily and Italy, and counting with a large number of French troops and pilots and abundant supplies, the allies do very well in France.

Being extremely busy in France and the USSR. Hitler cannot afford to invade Italy when Mussolini is ousted or to continue mass murdering Jews, etc, or fighting in Yugoslavia or holding Greece. The allies can supply, reinforce and provide air support for Yugoslavia and Greece, whence the allies bomb and advance into Austria, Romania, Hungary and Bulgaria in 1943.

After losing French iron ore and food, Romanian oil and troops and suffering enormous losses in 2 rapidly advancing fronts and with German production severly limited. Hitler, Goering, Himmler, etc, are arrested by the WM and Germany capitulates in 1943.
even losing Indian Ocean shipping (transporting desperately needed food from Australia and NZ) to merchant raiders in 1941 and reacted extremely poorly.

Actually, British & Allied merchant ship losses in the Indian Ocean totalled 1.66 vessels per month between January & December, 1941. Twenty vessels were lost, totalling 73,000 tons.

As to the rest!!!!!!!!!!!!!

As the thread is apparently:-

Sticking to Priorities and Common Sense in 1941

When is the Common Sense going to appear?
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Old 20 May 15, 13:36
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Malaya-Singapore, Java and Sumatra were useless and vulnerable without strong sea and air fleets, but quite useful and defensible with them.
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Old 20 May 15, 13:54
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Originally Posted by Doveton Sturdee View Post
even losing Indian Ocean shipping (transporting desperately needed food from Australia and NZ) to merchant raiders in 1941 and reacted extremely poorly.

Actually, British & Allied merchant ship losses in the Indian Ocean totalled 1.66 vessels per month between January & December, 1941. Twenty vessels were lost, totalling 73,000 tons.

As to the rest!!!!!!!!!!!!!

As the thread is apparently:-

Sticking to Priorities and Common Sense in 1941

When is the Common Sense going to appear?
Pinguin and her mines alone accounted for 136,000 tons sunk or captured, by far most of them in 1941, so your figures are quite funny.

Moreover, some of the ships transporting large amounts of food, etc, from Australia were sunk in the Atlantic.

I certainly don't expect You to apply common sense, but to continue justifying the insanity of losing the invaluable SW Pacific and all its ships, troops and planes in weeks and colossal shipping in the Atlantic and Arctic, wasting enormous shipping capacity supplying Egypt, Iran, India and China around South Africa and wasting a million tons and over 200,000 men for over a year fighting Rommel's few divisions and many planes, merchant and warships supplying Malta and raiding Dieppe and Tobruk and fighting in neutral Madagascar and Syria, instead of invading weak Pantelleria, Tunisia and Sardinia in a few weeks, thus defeating the axis in Africa, opening up the Med route and preparing to invade France.
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Old 20 May 15, 14:38
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Pinguin and her mines alone accounted for 136,000 tons sunk or captured, by far most of them in 1941, so your figures are quite funny.

Moreover, some of the ships transporting large amounts of food, etc, from Australia were sunk in the Atlantic.

I certainly don't expect You to apply common sense, but to continue justifying the insanity of losing the invaluable SW Pacific and all its ships, troops and planes in weeks and colossal shipping in the Atlantic and Arctic, wasting enormous shipping capacity supplying Egypt, Iran, India and China around South Africa and wasting a million tons and over 200,000 men for over a year fighting Rommel's few divisions and many planes, merchant and warships supplying Malta and raiding Dieppe and Tobruk and fighting in neutral Madagascar and Syria, instead of invading weak Pantelleria, Tunisia and Sardinia in a few weeks, thus defeating the axis in Africa, opening up the Med route and preparing to invade France.
Pinguin and her mines alone accounted for 136,000 tons sunk or captured, by far most of them in 1941, so your figures are quite funny.

My figures are accurate, and can be independently verified by anyone who wishes to make the effort.

When you said 'Indian Ocean shipping' I thought you meant 'Indian Ocean shipping.'

I didn't realize that you didn't mean 'Indian Ocean shipping' at all, but something completely different.

When you have worked out what you think you mean, please feel free to inform us.
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Old 20 May 15, 14:56
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Why are you so obsessed with Pantelleria? It was a 32 square mile island, useful for maybe a medium-sized airbase like at Iwo Jima. No one could have invaded anything from there.
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Old 20 May 15, 15:15
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It was much larger and weaker and had 1,000x more valuable location than Tarawa.

It allowed single engine planes to stop there enroute to Malta. It was much closer to the routes Sicily-Tripoli and SIcily Tunisia than Malta and its planes could wipe out the axis planes in W SIcily and rule the paramount narrows of Tunisia, allowing shipping to proceed to India, Iran and Egypt in weeks, instead of months around South Africa and with much less fuel. It would provide sir support for a landing in crucial Tunisia (infinitely more valuable than Syria or Madagascar).

Is it so difficult to see?.
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Old 20 May 15, 15:43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Draco View Post
It was much larger and weaker and had 1,000x more valuable location than Tarawa.

It allowed single engine planes to stop there enroute to Malta. It was much closer to the routes Sicily-Tripoli and SIcily Tunisia than Malta and its planes could wipe out the axis planes in W SIcily and rule the paramount narrows of Tunisia, allowing shipping to proceed to India, Iran and Egypt in weeks, instead of months around South Africa and with much less fuel. It would provide sir support for a landing in crucial Tunisia (infinitely more valuable than Syria or Madagascar).

Is it so difficult to see?.
Pantelleria was next to useless. It was small, in range of Axis airfields, and was only invaded in the first place to clear the way for the attack on Sicily. No historians have ever emphasized Pantelleria as some vital link in a grand war-winning strategy. Altogether it would have been an enormous waste of Allied time and resources.
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