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Go Back   Armchair General and HistoryNet >> The Best Forums in History > Historical Events & Eras > Warfare by Other Means

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Warfare by Other Means Economics, demographics, cultural, technological, and other factors that have affected the course of history.

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  #1  
Old 26 Dec 14, 12:27
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Cyberwar: Warfare for 2015

Cyberwarfare is certainly war, but it's so new it's hard to get a mental hold on it yet.

We see it in bizarre form as (apparently) North Korea shuts down a movie by shutting down an American movie company offices and making threats of terrorism in theaters. And then (apparently) the Christmas Day shutdown of Sony and other game Internet connection that gamers need to play their new Christmas presents.

Okay, that's bizarre --- is that "war"?

Another unexpected form of cyberwar is the invasion of hundreds of propaganda-posting Russians onto American discussion forums and comment sites.

None of this so far is the closer analogue to war bookwriters are always threatening ------- Nobody can call a few days off of gaming a serious disruption, even if it is at Christmas.

Sabotage of water systems, electricity, the whole Internet down, Defense Department systems, air traffic control systems, port piloting systems, etc. Things that actually cause death and serious disruption.

Are more serious attacks likely in 2015? Are there possibilities in the pipeline we can't imagine?
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  #2  
Old 26 Dec 14, 13:34
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Originally Posted by Phebe View Post
...

Are more serious attacks likely in 2015? Are there possibilities in the pipeline we can't imagine?
Absolutely. If you had tried to describe yesterday's DDoS attack against Microsoft to someone twenty years ago, only a few compute geeks and maybe science fiction writers would have even understood the concepts.

And this form of conflict isn't limited to recognized nation-states. Groups like Anonymous, for example, have their own agendas that transcend national boundaries and conventional ideas about how conflicts arise and evolve.
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Old 26 Dec 14, 22:17
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This is the new type of warfare in the opening of the Electronics Age. Yes, we are likely to see more attacks on networked systems that can cause great economic damage to a country or company.
And, it won't just be nations doing it. Mercenary, terrorist, and revolutionary groups will jump in for a variety of motives as well.
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Old 26 Dec 14, 22:59
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I often hear how vulnerable our infrastructure is in the U.S. to these kinds of attacks.

I have to hope that people who know a lot more about computer security in government and industry are working on these issues.

Sony being hacked may turn out to be a good thing in the long run. I would much rather an entertainment company be the victim than something critical such as the power grid or the financial industry. Or critical national defense systems.

Hopefully the hacking of Sony will be a wake up call.

As I understand it there are "hackers" working for government and industry. They try to hack their systems. If they get in the I.T. people go back and figure out how block the hack.
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Old 27 Dec 14, 02:08
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Originally Posted by 17thfabn View Post
I often hear how vulnerable our infrastructure is in the U.S. to these kinds of attacks.

...

Hopefully the hacking of Sony will be a wake up call.
It has been for me in the sense that I've started reading about cyberwarfare now. I'm not too impressed with taking down movies or games -- but the Sony attack actually damaged, ruined, all the computers in their offices, which had to be replaced, if the news is true. Which made me think, if they could do that to Sony, couldn't they do it to any of us? Our own Stuxnet ( if it was ours) seems to have ruined Iranian computers working on their nuclear program a couple years ago.

So far it's a weapon or style of war with more potential than actuality. Science fiction.

But I have a bad feeling about it.
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Old 27 Dec 14, 02:40
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Quote:
Are more serious attacks likely in 2015? Are there possibilities in the pipeline we can't imagine?
I would say so, though I'd prefer to be wrong.

I think we can probably imagine the potential: attacking infrastructure and such, but in a way we probably can't imagine what that would actually be like.

Also another possible threat I think, and what I don't think is just a product of the technothriller genre (well okay, I am a fan of the genre, BUT) is EMP. Targets could be the same probably, just different execution and potentially different results although who knows.

In any case I don't think that one has to be a paranoid survival nut to see that it's probably a good idea to be prepared in case the S does HTF due to a devastating cyberattack aimed at basically the nation. Of course the same goes for any at risk of natural disaster too.

It's slightly scary, and i'm trying not to sound like one of "those" people, but, in WWII you'd have to send tons of bombers to attack a portion of infrastructure but it seems like now, or eventually, there would probably be the potential to attack whole swaths of infrastructure with perhaps even a single well aimed cyberattack.
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Old 27 Dec 14, 02:43
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Btw the Sony hack looks like a inside job. Disgruntled worker?

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/Son.../26/id/615138/
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Old 27 Dec 14, 08:35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Super Six 4 View Post
Also another possible threat I think, and what I don't think is just a product of the technothriller genre (well okay, I am a fan of the genre, BUT) is EMP. Targets could be the same probably, just different execution and potentially different results although who knows.
Yes, EMP would take out electronics, as would cyber attacks. However, an EMP requires a nuclear bomb, if I understand it correctly. Detonated high up to get the best coverage --- which would require high-flying planes or good rockets. I wonder if that would be harder for less-developed countries ---- though like cyber attacks, it would be hard to prove whodunnit.


Quote:
It's slightly scary, and i'm trying not to sound like one of "those" people, but, in WWII you'd have to send tons of bombers to attack a portion of infrastructure but it seems like now, or eventually, there would probably be the potential to attack whole swaths of infrastructure with perhaps even a single well aimed cyberattack.
I am most intrigued with the idea that they could take down the financial system. By leaving the money in but taking out all the designators so no one knew who had what. Presumably there would be record backups so perhaps the confusion would only last a few days, like all these hacks do lately.

So far they aren't showing capacity to do more than annoy us --- even the big credit card thefts of tens of millions of cards and many other numbers never really seem to DO much, except cause excitement in the news.

Maybe it's mostly a weapon to sow confusion and upset. So far. But I wonder how smart it is to simply make us mad.
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Old 27 Dec 14, 15:26
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Hopefully I'm not talking out of my ass but I think that there can be EMP devices independent of nuclear devices, although nuclear devices do create an EMP effect beyond the nuclear explosion itself.

Assuming some group, say, was indeed able to wreck the financial system, who knows maybe a few days would allow them to do something more explicit. I dunno what; terrorist attacks maybe?

It's in line with it being a weapon of confusion. Get people off balance and then strike.

Assuming we can't really recover, I don't know how effective the results would be, an attack on the financial system rather than say the power grid.

Also while not a cyberattack per sey, I learned in another thread that apparently there's a smartphone app that the rioters are using to organize their "events" so that more people come. Now, I have also heard about supposedly ISIS/middle eastern terrorists trying to recruit some rioters through social media (private messaging on facebook and stuff probably). So I wonder if it'd be possible for these terrorists to incite riots and stuff using the app. Perhaps they could do it in places like LA and New York as well as Chicago, Detroit, Oakland, and so forth.

Results aren't exactly devastating to the country; it's a relatively low return, but low risk investment, and besides, the terrorists would probably love to see some Americans ripping up a little bit of their own country. Who knows maybe they incite people to start going after wealthy neighborhoods/people, police stations, and such wrecking stuff, injuring people, maybe even killing. We see that stuff like the "Occupy" movement can attract a lot of people to protest against corporations and such, so what if we have something on our hands that is "Occupy" out for blood so to speak?
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Old 27 Dec 14, 15:57
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The UK's biggest defence company, BAE Systems, has a cyber division and they have recently been making acquisitions of companies in this space too.

It certainly seems a live sphere of war and one that will become increasingly important in the years ahead.
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Old 28 Dec 14, 01:07
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Originally Posted by Phebe View Post
It has been for me in the sense that I've started reading about cyberwarfare now. I'm not too impressed with taking down movies or games -- but the Sony attack actually damaged, ruined, all the computers in their offices, which had to be replaced, if the news is true. Which made me think, if they could do that to Sony, couldn't they do it to any of us? Our own Stuxnet ( if it was ours) seems to have ruined Iranian computers working on their nuclear program a couple years ago.
I haven't heard of Sony's systems being physically damaged but they could be so compromised by malware they've decided it would be safer to just replace some of it than run the risk of further breaches.

If what's been revealed about STUXNET so far is accurate, it wasn't the computers that were damaged but the high-speed centrifuges they were controlling. That's been a sci-fi scenario up until now.

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So far it's a weapon or style of war with more potential than actuality. Science fiction.
Well the Russians and Estonians have gone at it electronically a couple of times now.

People cost too much so nations and companies keep automating their activities. So I'd say it's only going to get worse.

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But I have a bad feeling about it.
You're not the only one.
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Old 28 Dec 14, 06:20
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Lonsdale makes a lot of sense of the issue in 'The Nature of War in the Information Age' by a thorough introduction to the nature of war in all ages; http://www.amazon.co.uk/Nature-War-I...nformation+age

Recommended- Will post more later when I'm on a proper computer. Great start to the new subforum.
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Old 28 Dec 14, 07:47
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Thanks for the book recommendation. One can rent it on Amazon U.S.
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Old 28 Dec 14, 08:00
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Some of you might also be interested in this:

http://map.ipviking.com/

it tracks (live) about 1% of all cyber attacks around the world, according to the gent that sent it to me who'se doing post-grad computer science or something at Leeds. YOu see a lot coming from Chinese providers and the US as the main target with a near-continuous stream of about 100 - and this is just a fraction of all cyber-attacks. Pretty eye-opening stuff.
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Old 28 Dec 14, 08:12
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Quote:
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Some of you might also be interested in this:

http://map.ipviking.com/

it tracks (live) about 1% of all cyber attacks around the world, according to the gent that sent it to me who'se doing post-grad computer science or something at Leeds. YOu see a lot coming from Chinese providers and the US as the main target with a near-continuous stream of about 100 - and this is just a fraction of all cyber-attacks. Pretty eye-opening stuff.
For the 'books to balance' a good portion of these attacks must be US on US.

Even so, say China is attacking the US in a cyber sense, it is hard to imagine a traditional military response, bombing Chinese servers or what have you. The response will in turn be cyber one, seeking weaknesses or exploring for information.

A new arms race has begun and one that will likely evolve very quickly, more quickly than traditional weapons systems have evolved.
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