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Go Back   Armchair General and HistoryNet >> The Best Forums in History > Military/History Related Hobbies > Alternate Timelines > Xtreme Alternate History

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  #16  
Old 05 Sep 14, 15:41
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Draco View Post
Another of dozens of posts completely devoid of content.
Tell me about it. Every single thread you post.

Its like watching Deliverance over and over and over...

I'm beginning to think you didn't come here to hunt...
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  #17  
Old 05 Sep 14, 15:42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Draco View Post
Another of dozens of posts completely devoid of content.

Had Stalin created allies, instead of enemies and invaded all of Romania with these allies (eliminating a strong enemy), left neutral Finland alone and stopped supplying and started fighting Germany with help from Poles, Hungarians, Yugoslavs and Italians. Hitler would not have stood a chance.

.....alliance with Stalin.
Bela Kun, Bela Kun redder than the rest
Bela Kun, Bela Kun, became Buda's Pest
Made war on Romania
Lost Transylvania
Volga Ran
Koba slammed
No more ..Kun...
.......

some old bad blood between Stalin and Horthy, old chap..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B%C3%A9la_Kun
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Last edited by marktwain; 05 Sep 14 at 16:03..
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  #18  
Old 05 Sep 14, 16:37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by marktwain View Post
Bela Kun, Bela Kun redder than the rest
Bela Kun, Bela Kun, became Buda's Pest
Made war on Romania
Lost Transylvania
Volga Ran
Koba slammed
No more ..Kun...
.......

some old bad blood between Stalin and Horthy, old chap..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B%C3%A9la_Kun
An alliance between Horty and Stalin to attack Romania (with a win-win situation for Hungary) is no more unlikely or shocking than one between Hitler and Stalin to invade Poland in 1939. The quintessential enemies before that pact. Or an alliance between Stalin and Churchill in 1941, the quintessential enemies for decades. Or a non aggression pact between Japan and the USSR. Quintessential enemies. Convenience and necesity make for strange bed fellows.
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  #19  
Old 05 Sep 14, 16:46
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Originally Posted by Draco View Post
Finland had little to offer the USSR and Stalin invaded it at the worst possible time. In contrast, <snip>

Once more, it's Miller time
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  #20  
Old 06 Sep 14, 09:30
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Originally Posted by Draco View Post
he controlled strong communist parties throughout the world (including Britain).

Including Britain :
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  #21  
Old 06 Sep 14, 09:35
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Originally Posted by Draco View Post
Because the US are not adjacent, do not have a tiny population, do not have lousy terrain for Panzers and are not under attack by the USSR, Hungary and Yugoslavia.
Switserland under attack by the USSR,Hungary and Yugoslavia : you are forgetting Morelia .

In WWI,Italy attacked Austria ,and the result was Caporetto : probably something which is unknown in Morelia .
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  #22  
Old 06 Sep 14, 10:38
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Approps to nothing in particular, I've seen the Soviet invasion of Rumania go to Bucharest and beyond on the game board during 1939-1940 game turns. The result is a overextended Red Army. Secondary results are the Italian military power such as it was deployed in the Balkans rather than vs France or Britain, more active German allies in Hungary and the other Balkan nations, and a accelerated effort at mobilizing the Red Armys reservists 1939-40.

None of this helps the USSR any in the longer run. The effects on the German oil supply can be over estimated. Main effect there is Germany pays more attention to remedial measures several years sooner.
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  #23  
Old 06 Sep 14, 10:52
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I am not talking about 1939-40, I am talking about May 20, 1940, when Germany cannot do anything and has no influence over Hungary.

Even during Barbarossa Hungary refused to join the initial attack. The Germans had to bomb Humgary and pretend that the Soviets had done it to force Hungary into the war.
With the USSR invading Romania while Germany cannot intervene, Hungary, Yugoslavia and Bulgaria can either join and gain armament and territory or stay away and be next to fall either in Soviet or German hands.

It is impossible to be over extended when you have Constanta to supply from the sea, Poland and the Ukraine. Logistically, the invasion of Romania only is chicken **** compared to the invasion of Iran through the Caucasus in the middle of Barbarossa (with German and Romanian planes in the Black Sea, after losing lots of trains, with limited supplies for a huge front and defending Odessa).

Despite German help, it took a large Romanian force 3 months to capture Odessa and 8 months to capture Crimea (in big part thanks to the Soviet fleet). In contrast the Soviet fleet and Rokossovski's force will take Constanta in days.

In September, the remnants of the Polish army liberating Poland with plenty of Soviet armament and ammunition, the Soviets invade Slovakia, Bohemia-Moravia and the Soviets, Hungarians, Yugoslavs and Italians invading Austria, and the Italians and Soviets invading Switzerland and Bavaria would cause Germany to run out of munitions in weeks, since production is quite low and not all the ammunition spent invading Holland, Belgium and France has been replaced.

The idea that Germany can increase dramatically its synthetic oil production while it fights for its life is absurd. It cannot send troops to Africa (to gain access to middle east oil), since Italy is at war with Germany and the latter has no ships in the Med. Germany does not have access even to Hungarian oil and will soon lose its small oil production in Austria and Poland.

Hitler would have to occupy all of France and force Franco to allow passage of troops to capture Gibraltar and to close the Med to the allies and then fight the French in Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia and the Italians in Libya and the British in Egypt with very long supply lines and little fuel. It would take months to arrive in Iraq, which is occupied by the Soviets (who cap the wells with concrete as they did in Maikop, etc,). In the meantime Germany will have lost Pland, East Prussia, Bohemia-Moravia, Austria, Bavaria, the coal and industry of Silesia and attacking from Switzerland, the Soviets have captured the vital iron ore of Alsace-Lorraine.
Without oil, coal, iron ore, etc, industry stalls, munitions are depleted and planes, cannon, the few tanks, etc, are useless. Hitler is arrested by the generals, who sue for peace.

Last edited by Draco; 06 Sep 14 at 12:18..
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  #24  
Old 06 Sep 14, 12:20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Draco View Post

The idea that Germany can increase dramatically its synthetic oil production while it fights for its life is absurd.

This is absurd

German production of synthetic oil

1941:3.9 million ton

1942:4.6 million ton

1943:5.6 million ton


Where I am living,this is considered as a dramatic increase .
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  #25  
Old 06 Sep 14, 13:43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ljadw View Post
This is absurd

German production of synthetic oil

1941:3.9 million ton

1942:4.6 million ton

1943:5.6 million ton


Where I am living,this is considered as a dramatic increase .
You're talking about a time when Germany had had a year after invading France to recover and build, was exploting Poland and Ukraine, receiving oil from the USSR (until June 22, 1941) and Romania and had millions of slaves and the allies could not bomb the factories. I am talking about 1940 with Germany beign invaded shortly after defeating France, there are no years to build and expand facilities. Without the ore from Alsace-Lorraine, there is no steel for producing guns and tanks, much less build factories. Without Silesian coal and with bombers reaching any point in Germany, synthetic fuel production collapses (far from growing), as it did in 1945.
Under attack and losing horses rapidly, Germany would not have even enough horses for harvesting and fighting simultaneously.

Historically, in 1941 the Soviets bombed Ploesti repeatedly from Crimea (one of the reasons for wasting 8 months capturing Sevastopol). In this scenario in 1940 they are bombing German oil and steel industry from Bohemia, Poland and Switzerland after a few weeks of starting the war.

The promt loss of Bohemia costs among other things the loss of production of the 35 t a far better tank than the Pz I and II that make up most of German tanks in 1940 and the loss of a considerable part of armour plate production.
Plane, tank, munitions and gun production was ridiculous in the second half of 1940 and first half of 1941 (120 Stukas), despite Germany getting everything it needed from the USSR and German territory being untouched (including Bohemia). Without imported materials and rapidly losing vital areas, German porduction is even more ridiculous.

In contrast, without losing any trains and rail roads, industry, labor, agricultural land or having to relocate heavy industry from Ukraine and Moscow all the way to the Urals, Soviet production booms.

Last edited by Draco; 06 Sep 14 at 14:23..
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  #26  
Old 06 Sep 14, 14:35
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Which part of synthetic oil production did he miss?
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  #27  
Old 06 Sep 14, 15:30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Draco View Post
I am not talking about 1939-40, I am talking about May 20, 1940, when Germany cannot do anything and has no influence over Hungary.
The threat of invasion?

Quote:
Adolf Hitler gave promises to return lost territories and threats of military intervention and economic pressure to encourage the Hungarian Government to support the policies and goals of Nazi Germany
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungary_in_World_War_II

Stalin isn't about to give Hungary big chunks of land and based on historical precedent would have only offered treats of occupation.

Quote:
Even during Barbarossa Hungary refused to join the initial attack. The Germans had to bomb Humgary and pretend that the Soviets had done it to force Hungary into the war.
With the USSR invading Romania while Germany cannot intervene, Hungary, Yugoslavia and Bulgaria can either join and gain armament and territory or stay away and be next to fall either in Soviet or German hands.
So, as I initially postulated, the most likely course is Hungary tries to remain neutral and German friendly. That thwarts Stalin, keeps the Germans out, and keeps Hungary from becoming a patsy or sap for either.

Quote:
It is impossible to be over extended when you have Constanta to supply from the sea, Poland and the Ukraine. Logistically, the invasion of Romania only is chicken **** compared to the invasion of Iran through the Caucasus in the middle of Barbarossa (with German and Romanian planes in the Black Sea, after losing lots of trains, with limited supplies for a huge front and defending Odessa).
Then you know nothing of the Red Army in 1940. One only need look at the debacle of logistics that occurred when it invaded Poland. Eastern Poland looked like a salvage yard of Russian military equipment. Units advanced on foot scavenging from the countryside because the supply train was non-existent.
The invasion of Iran historically took the Soviets about two weeks to advance across about a third of the country against negligible opposition. This was with an army now having some actual war experience and having reorganized into reasonably effective units.

Quote:
Despite German help, it took a large Romanian force 3 months to capture Odessa and 8 months to capture Crimea (in big part thanks to the Soviet fleet). In contrast the Soviet fleet and Rokossovski's force will take Constanta in days.
And, what were the Red Army's losses in Finland? What about at Nomohan? Against the Germans in their invasion in 1941? The Black Seas fleet proved nearly useless in WW 2. Expecting the Red Navy to be effective is just loopy.

Quote:
In September, the remnants of the Polish army liberating Poland with plenty of Soviet armament and ammunition, the Soviets invade Slovakia, Bohemia-Moravia and the Soviets, Hungarians, Yugoslavs and Italians invading Austria, and the Italians and Soviets invading Switzerland and Bavaria would cause Germany to run out of munitions in weeks, since production is quite low and not all the ammunition spent invading Holland, Belgium and France has been replaced.
The remnants of the Polish army would not exist. Stalin would have never allowed that. Not for a nanosecond. He shot all the Polish officers he captured. Ever hear of Katyn Forest massacre? Guess not.

http://www.katyn.org.au/



Quote:
The idea that Germany can increase dramatically its synthetic oil production while it fights for its life is absurd. It cannot send troops to Africa (to gain access to middle east oil), since Italy is at war with Germany and the latter has no ships in the Med. Germany does not have access even to Hungarian oil and will soon lose its small oil production in Austria and Poland.
But, they historically did more than doubling it. That makes your statement the absurd one.

http://weaponsandwarfare.com/?p=3161


Show a shred of proof that Italy would have declared war on Germany. Mussolini was firmly opposed to Communism and Communists. Italy however, would have almost certainly seen the Soviet advance into Romania as a threat and more likely thrown in with Germany. So, it is more likely that Germany would reinforce Italy in North Africa and finish the British, particularly with the advance of the Soviets into Iran, than the nonsense above.

Quote:
Hitler would have to occupy all of France and force Franco to allow passage of troops to capture Gibraltar and to close the Med to the allies and then fight the French in Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia and the Italians in Libya and the British in Egypt with very long supply lines and little fuel. It would take months to arrive in Iraq, which is occupied by the Soviets (who cap the wells with concrete as they did in Maikop, etc,). In the meantime Germany will have lost Pland, East Prussia, Bohemia-Moravia, Austria, Bavaria, the coal and industry of Silesia and attacking from Switzerland, the Soviets have captured the vital iron ore of Alsace-Lorraine.
Without oil, coal, iron ore, etc, industry stalls, munitions are depleted and planes, cannon, the few tanks, etc, are useless. Hitler is arrested by the generals, who sue for peace.
Hitler could have still negotiated a Vichy French surrender and armistice. How does anything you've postulated here change that? Why would France fight on in this scenario?
Gibraltar doesn't need occupation nor does Spain have to enter the war. The French are not likely to fight on for a number of reasons in any case chief among them the lack of logistic support long term for their forces in their colonies.
Why will Germany lose land in the East because the Soviets invade Romania? Are you now postulating instead that Stalin simply declares war on Germany shortly after invading Romania?
The rest of this postulation is puerile drivel.
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  #28  
Old 06 Sep 14, 16:35
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And in 1939,the synthetic oil production was 2.2 million ton,and in 1940 3.1 million ton .

For the rest, Draco is doing as Adolf in 1945 : non existent Soviet armies invading Switserland, a non existing Yugoslavian army invades Austria ,etc .

Graziani and Zhukov in München ...

Nothing will surprise me from a man who wrote (in the International Military Forum) that Japan could invade South Africa .

Draco should write thrillers,or go in politics .

I forgot the best one : the Soviets liberating the Alsace .
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  #29  
Old 06 Sep 14, 18:05
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3.1 million tons were produced during the whole year of 1940 (you can deduct the last months, when Germany will have lost the coal mines). More than that was consumed just fighting France or Britain. It is a ridiculous amount for the German war machine to fight several countries, including the USSR.

Russians walked to and fought successfully in Switzerland, Austria, Italy, Germany, France and looted Paris in the 19th century. A much stronger and more mechanized army has absolutely no problem taking Bohemia, Switzerland, Alsace, etc, from a recovering WM without fuel and ammo.

TAG,
I specified that Stalin does not kill the Polish prisoners.

Poland was already defeated. Stalin sent the oldest tanks and the worst troops to Poland, precisely because he wanted Germany to think that the Soviet army was useless. Besides, the Soviets have learnt from any mistakes they made in 1939, this is 1940.

Please read about the Soviet fleet moving sailors to fight in Odessa for months, then moving them to Sevastopol to fight again and how heavy naval artillery support delayed Manstein's capture of Sevastopol considerably (Manstein had on and off air and armor support, because of the ridiculous number of planes and tanks covering several forces simultaneously.

The Black Sea fleet and air force was a pain in the neck that (like the Baltic submarines) should have been sunk on the first day of Brabarossa, but the few planes had their cut out destroying thousands of planes and tanks in front of the 3 army groups.

The Soviet fleet and air force are a formidable force for Romania, especially with a large army advancing along the coast also.

Regarding Hungary. Again, There is nothing Germany can do in that area in May and June. Hungary was hostile towards Romania and is not going to reject armament and an alliance when it can capture considerable land. The second Vienna award was months away and it did not include Transylvania proper. Dozens of Soviet divisions invading Romania while Germany is busy cannot be ignored.

The army that invaded Iran in weeks, had no experience. All the good troops were fighting over a 2,800 km front and losing millions of men. iT was the least important operation of the war run at the most difficult time.

Invading and supplying Romania while it is the only enemy and the Soviet fleet and air force dominating the sea and air completely is a piece of cake.

We all consider ourselves ultimate experts and we all ignore much more than we know.

Last edited by Draco; 06 Sep 14 at 18:23..
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  #30  
Old 07 Sep 14, 08:51
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Draco View Post

Stalin sent the oldest tanks and the worst troops to Poland, precisely because he wanted Germany to think that the Soviet army was useless.

I demand to see the order of Stalin to Worochilov:"use the oldest tanks and the worst troops to invade Poland,so that Hitler will think that the Soviet Army is useless".

If you can't produce this order, this will prove that as usuall you are living in phantasialand .
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