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Go Back   Armchair General and HistoryNet >> The Best Forums in History > Current Events > Russia, Central Asia, and The Caucasus > Ukrainian Crisis

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Ukrainian Crisis Discuss the unfolding crisis in Ukraine.

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  #61  
Old 14 Oct 14, 00:57
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Originally Posted by The Exorcist View Post
You have really lost your mind with the rhetoric, makes me wonder if you are killing tourists in your spare time. All that hate needs a vent, after all.


Kinda...
This post reveals more about your love for humanity.

So I'm looking forward to your post's with detailed and reasonable analysis, in the fashion SHAA has done on many occasions.
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  #62  
Old 14 Oct 14, 02:33
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So I'm looking forward to your post's with detailed and reasonable analysis, in the fashion SHAA has done on many occasions.
Hey, when i see a thread with a subject worth something like that, I do.
This ain't one of them anymore.
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  #63  
Old 14 Oct 14, 03:40
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Originally Posted by Khepesh View Post
I would say that no matter now the number was interpreted it indicates a high number of deaths. At face value 6500+, if it indicates plot 6 grave 554, then how many in plots 1-5?, at least 3324. If plot 65 grave 54 then at least 3510. We won't know for certain until Kiev gives proper numbers after the war, but I suspect the number is a running total and indicates 6500+ known deaths with a body to bury, and there will be more that are currently accounted as "missing".
I gave some thought to this. The photographer that took this picture believed it was significant and that the number meant 6500+ unknown dead. It sounds likely he chose this particular pic because it was the highest number he seen. Remember, this photo was taken in the junta side, by somebody aware of his significance, and taking the pic and posting it would be considered a defeatist and treasonous act, damaging for morale and the war effort. Somebody risked serious trouble for taking that picture.

I don't believe it is a reference number, but a quantity, correlative number. Graveyard workers know where graves are, they have a plan wich plots the graves. They don't need numbers on tombstones or crosses to find a grave. Furthermore, this looks like a provisional field cemetery.

The estimates according Novorussian intelligence, with the support of allegedly hacked internal Ukranian documents were at the end of August, just before the Novorussian offensive, were

20.000 dead and wounded
12.000 deserters, prisoners and missing

Given a consistent ratio of 1 dead to 2 wounded, this amounted to 6,000 known dead before the big defeats in September. These numbers are indirectly confirmed by Ukranian side. Poroshenko himself admitted to having lost 60% of their armored vehicles and materiel. Some Pravy Sektor guy admitted the Ukies lost 10,000 men.

So that would mean in the September offensive the Ukrops lost another 4,000 killed, wich seems reasonable in view of the fighting and confirms the accuracy of the rebels reporting.

Question is: of those 12,000 listed as missing or captured, how many prisoners did the Novorussians take? A few thousand, at maximum. encircled units in cauldrons near the border were allowed to go to Russia. Generally speaking, NatGuard units chose to fight to the end or try to breakout rather than surrender, and Novorussians were not keen to give quarter to them. Only when completely destroyed as fighting units did the paramilitaries surrender in large numbers under Ilovaisk. With all those things considered, and going from memory I think about 5,000 at most. Does anyone remember the prisoner exchanges after the cease fire?

Furthermore we know for certain the junta hides its losses by listing many dead as deserters or missing in order not to pay pensions to the next of kin, so a large proportion of those "missing" are indeed dead. When an army suffers catastrophic defeats encircled in pockets, in such chaotic circumstances there's little time to bury the dead, or keep account of casualties. Often whole units disappear with nobody coming back to tell the tale. It's very likely the Novorussians know better than the Ukranians what happened to the Ukranian troops, since they ended masters of the field and have found lots of unmarked graves and unburied corpses.

There haven't been notable mass desertions to the rebels until after the ceasefire, and deserting in the combat zone to go home is hard. There are only a number of limited crossing points over the Dnieper, so they are easy to control. True desertions probably only amount to 10-15% of the missing, wich is a high rate of desertion, usually in other conflicts it is in the one digit range. Included as "deserters" would be those that went to Russia and stayed there, wich perhaps would push the rate to a 20%, in a normal war they would have been tallied as prisoners, but since they were given a way out, they swell the deserters column above the norm.

If there was a great increase of dead during the September battles (about than 50% from 6,000 to 10,000), we can only expect that the numbers of missing, presumed dead, increased proportionally.

So until September of those 12,000 missing we assume 30% are prisoners, 20% deserted or went to Russia, that leaves us 6,000 dead. A similar 50% increase would give a figure of 9,000 .

Since for starters, there's no such thing as uniformity in uniforms, and apparently Ukranian troops haven't dog tags or documents and phones are removed from the bodies to prevent identification, or these are lost or destroyed, and paramilitary units doesn't exist for accounting purposes for the Ukranian amry, it's plausible that most of those missing are unknown corpses. They found and identify bodies but cannot identify what unit they belonged to, much less the individual. 6,500+ unidentified bodies out of 10,000 missing dead it's not too much of a stretch, given the chaotic circumstances of a battelefield defeat.

Doing a quick search on forums about WWII casualties and if this proportion of dead among missing is unusually high and if my estimate is far off, I was reminded of something obvious: The number of dead is always higher than the number of "killed in action", because one has to add a number of died of wounds and a number that died of sickness and accidents,and a number that died in custody.

That makes me question if the KIA figures previous estimates just count those dead in the field, and excluded those that DFW later, pushing the number even higher. I give it a bit of thought, and exclude it as irrelevant. For starters, the proportion of killed to wounded is already high, because it already downplays wounded. If we count lightly wounded Ukranian casualties would even be higher. The estimates work around the facts that due to the bitterness of the fighting and "no quarter" orders a proportion of the KIA are actually taken prisoner and shot quickly after, or are wounded that are finished off in the field, wich increases the proportion of dead relative to wounded, and the fact that medical services are very poor. Many serious wounded die for lack of first aid, or delay in evacuating. If one survives long enough to make it to an hospital in the rear, chances are the patient will survive. With modern medicine and antibiotics, I think the proportion of "died from wounds" is much lower than in previous wars, and therefore not significant.
Sickness fatalities are probably insignificant, but could get higher with cold weather, and accidents, both with weapons and motor vehicles would be noticeable, given poor discipline and training, but only a small percent. What killed Ukranian troops was enemy fire, at the risk of stating the obvious.


So no increase in DFW, but my feeling is that if someone that is MIA and doesn't turn up in a prisoner camp, is that he is dead. More research is neccessary on this point to find out if this is the case. It has been stated often that the junta hides its losses by declaring dead as missing and this seems to be the case. What is seems unusual is that the majority of them end up of "unknown" graves.

To clarify this point. The Ukranians know the identity of those men that they went missing. They know for certain wich ones ended up alive and taken prisoners, they might know with less precision whose have gone over to the other side, fled to Russia, and went home and are looking for them, and substracting these, they can come up with a list of those that know they are dead. They know who they are, but they cannot match bodies with names without ID, and lack the time and money to verify identities by dental records or DNA testing.

So probably that grave register number means yes, there are 6,500 plus unknown Ukranian dead. But not really that relevant. It's was obvious for anyone who bothered to do the mth that Ukranian casualties had exceeded those figures a long ago. The hardcore ukrops already admitted at least 10,000 dead after the ceasefire. This grave photo is circumstancial evidence that confirms that and the defeats that the Ukranian army experienced. It was never winning the war at any point. It had cornered the rebels into a small defensive perimeter, but it was not taking any ground after the front lines solidified, being thrown into a meatgrinder of futile frontal attacks on defended positions and exposed itself to a number of counterattacks that encircled and destroyed their units.

The photo in itself means nothing, but added to lots of eyewitness accounts and other evidence, points out that the rebels were right in their intel estimates and that the hacked Ukranian documents seem to be real. Certainly the figures are not exact, but the order of magnitude is.


The reader is invited to further research to refine these analysis. In particular I would be grateful if somebody found how many Ukie troops were held prisoner pending exchange, and what is the proportion of dead/alive in the "missing" cathegory in other conflicts for comparison.
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Last edited by von Junzt; 14 Oct 14 at 03:49..
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  #64  
Old 14 Oct 14, 05:32
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Originally Posted by von Junzt View Post
I gave some thought to this. The photographer that took this picture believed it was significant and that the number meant 6500+ unknown dead.
Snipped the rest to avoid immediate repeat. Yes, this is what I think it means, though as I said previously when I gave some variants, we won't know until Kiev tells us after the war. Pity I am sort of accused of saying 100% it is a running total when I have not, but some simply do not want to know about ukie deaths and want to downplay and distract as much as possible.....

Anyway, to avoid nonsense thrown at me I'm going to get to this 6500+ by a slightly different route and play down the numbers. By end August UN themselves gave what they said were very conservative numbers of about 2100 dead on all sides, civilians and soldiers. I going to be very "generous" and say that 600 were soldiers and civilians of Novorossiya, so leaving 1500 ukie dead. At this point in time ukies admit a total of about 1500 dead they have bodies for, for the entire war. They admit 2000 MIA and Novorossiya says it had about 500 ukie POW. So we have about 1500 dead that ukies say they have a body for, and now plus about 1500 MIA, and presumed dead, that they have no body for. Minimum casualties, on ukies own figures, of 3000. Ukies here are actually trying to say that, if 1500 of the pre major battle deaths were theirs, then they only lost as many again in southern boiler and all the other battles along the southern front. This stretches credulity very far and cannot be seen as reasonable. While we know that entire ukie brigades were not wiped out as some were deployed as battalion or battalion+ sized independent units and while most of a battalion would have been wiped out, part of the brigade still existed. Figures of 10000 have been given for ukie deaths in those battles, but let's be "generous" and say this is too many, well, even cutting this down by a third, and I would say I am being very "generous", still leaves 3000+ casualties. So, at the very lowest estimate, an unrealistically low estimate, we have 4500 ukie dead that I would like to see explained away by Kiev "supporters", though I really believe, given the accounts from the battlefield by ukies themselves who survived, that at the very least several more thousand can be added. So, even though I do think there was a very high death toll, I deliberately play this down to show that it is not unreasonable for the register number to be a running total. I never heard of any regions given a number to go with a body either, and were would these at least 65 regions be, or did the numbering start at 60? or 64. I already gave some variants to explain another reason for the register numbers, but surely common sense and probability say that if you make a register it is normal to start at 1, not 4500, or 3789. The grave site we see in the video is at Dnepropetrovsk, and by rough guess is a plot 15 deep and 16 wide, so 240 graves. Clearly only a few dozen are occupied, but you do not actually dig a grave unless you have a body or know you will soon have a body. Yet we know there are these grave sites reasonably close to the front, some I think also at Odessa, in many places, and many bodies have been taken back to mainly Galicia were we have seen ukies own video and photos of row after row of burials. 12000 ukie deaths may be too high, but the 1500 they admit too, carefully avoiding the 1500 MIA presumed dead, is so low as to be laughable. A cold look at what evidence there is and using a bit of common sense suggests a number more in line with 6500+ at a minimum, and that just on available evidence, mostly from ukies themselves that has to be pieced together like a jigsaw. I think the real issue here was not actually about what the register number means, but to play down ukie deaths. Nobody wants war, nobody wants deaths, and most ukie deaths were of kids who were cynically used as cannon fodder, and it is a tragedy for Ukraine. But we want the truth, not desperate lies, evasions and distractions, simply the truth.

Edit: to avoid a rewrite to shoehorn this in. Ukies admit 1500 dead for entire war and carefully avoid adding approximately 1500 MIA who are highly likely to be dead. Well, fine, if you have no body then don't include them in the numbers, I can see that. But these 1500 they admit to must surley be in the numbers provided by UN before the major battles and have been buried by then, and we saw videos of mass burials taking place, primarily in cities around Galicia. So, if their 1500 dead were buried before the major battles and they do not have the bodies of the MIA, who are all these new burial sites for and who is buried in them, and as I said, who don't dig graves without a body or knowing there is a body for a grave. You do not dig graves for MIA, only for the bodies you have.

Last edited by Khepesh; 14 Oct 14 at 05:41..
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  #65  
Old 14 Oct 14, 06:29
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Originally Posted by The Exorcist View Post
You have really lost your mind with the rhetoric, makes me wonder if you are killing tourists in your spare time. All that hate needs a vent, after all.


Kinda...
You're talking to your own mirror - again.
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Old 14 Oct 14, 11:07
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Do you think the text "Temporarily unidentified" refers to just that particular grave then, or to the running total?

Their casualty figures might well be that high, given that so many units were completely decimated.
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Old 14 Oct 14, 11:31
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Originally Posted by Karri View Post
Do you think the text "Temporarily unidentified" refers to just that particular grave then, or to the running total?

Their casualty figures might well be that high, given that so many units were completely decimated.
Not sure if this is for von Juntz or me, but anyway. "Temporarily unidentified" refers to the person buried, not the grave, though this does not preclude a reburial of the person once their identity is known. As for the register number, well in some countries it would probably refer to the grave, but looking at the video it can be seen the numbers are not sequential except in two cases. She only walks around a few in a small area and I see numbers 6552, 6554, 6544, 6447, 6076, 6077 and 6346. So from that it would not be grave numbers but the body, as graves would be in numerical order. It could be expected that the bodies would be in sequencial order, but if they are numbered on the battlefield or collection point, morgue etc, then there could be some dispersal of the bodies from there to grave site and not all buried in numerical order, but as they come of the transport. It seems it would be easier to bury them in numerical order, but while they are unidentified, nobody will be looking for a particular grave. Probably the key to all this is were the bodies are numbered and by what procedure. For instance if bodies are recovered form Ilovaisk, now is it known to give them number xxxx as opposed to bodies from Saur-Mogila. I would suspect this is done at higher level at morgues with access to central databases.

Last edited by Khepesh; 14 Oct 14 at 11:36..
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Old 17 Oct 14, 03:39
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I found that the register number is not a running total of all UA dead, it is more shocking than that. It is a register of only the unidentified bodies, and that number is matched to a DNA sample. The highest number seen so far is now 6962 at the Dnepropetrovsk burial site.

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Old 17 Oct 14, 04:12
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Good detective work. Glad our deductions weren't far off.
Could you elaborate on your sources for this? I am going toadd that to my blog and post at another forum.
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Old 17 Oct 14, 05:06
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Originally Posted by Khepesh View Post
I found that the register number is not a running total of all UA dead, it is more shocking than that. It is a register of only the unidentified bodies, and that number is matched to a DNA sample. The highest number seen so far is now 6962 at the Dnepropetrovsk burial site.
Sounds incredibly sketchy, how can you have 7000 unidentified bodies? Also, any proof?
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Old 17 Oct 14, 05:54
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About the burials of unidentified UA soldiers. That it is a register of unidentified bodies and tied to a DNA sample is from ukies themselves as can be seen in this TSN video. Also link to post on VK page https://vk.com/strelkov_info?w=wall-57424472_23948 and link to Kassad, though it is a general article and need to scroll down for the part about the burials and a few photos. http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1846409.html
And translation of the relevant part of the video description.
Quote:
In Dnepropetrovsk the UA buried unidentified soldiers from the ATO zone. This is the fifth such burial of unknown soldiers, from which DNA was taken for analysis, and entered onto a single register of unidentified victims from the area of the military conflict in East Ukraine
It says the fifth burial, but it actually means that Dnepropetrovsk is the fifth seperate site to be used for these burials of unidentified bodies.


Last edited by Khepesh; 17 Oct 14 at 06:06..
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Old 25 Oct 14, 07:11
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Estimating of the current state of Ukrainian forces
http://warsonline.info/ukraine/o-chi...a-donbass.html

In recent years, especially over the past five days, talks about Ukraine's preparation of the next decisive attack on the Donbass became more frequent. The closest estimated time it began to be called on October 26-27. On this occasion, even Igor Strelkov has already spoken pointed on the danger of a military defeat of Novorussia and asked for the help of Russia. In this regard it necessary to try to estimate the real scale and composition of the Ukrainian army at the moment.

In the spring of this year, the Armed Forces of Ukraine had eighteen full-strength brigades. Including; 2 tank (1st and 17th); 8 mechanized (24th, 28th, 30th, 51th, 72th, 92nd, 93th, 128th); 4 airmobile (25th, 79th, 80th, 95th); 3 Artillery (11th, 26th, 55th) and 1 rocket launcher. Plus seven separate regiments: 80th airmobile; 15th, 27th and 107th regiments of rocket launchers; 2nd, 3rd and 8th special destination regiments. In addition to them, Ukraine had some amount of supply units. Separate engineering battalions, signals battalions and companies, included all kinds of couriers, physicians, management and headquarters bases.

By its nominal numbers and, in particular, the volume of stocks of heavy weapons on February 2014 the Ukrainian surface forces were surely among the top five in Europe. Then began fighting in the south-east of the country which resulted in a number of crushing defeats. Shocking pocket 1.0 near the Russian border. Then the heavy fighting for Saur-Mogila. Lost battle for Ilovajsk. The next pocket 2.0. Surrounding near Zhdanovka. Almost left Mariupol. The air forces of the country were almost completely destroyed. Suffering of huge losses in manpower and in particular, in equipment. So what is left of the Ukrainian army at the moment? In this we shall now try to understand.

For combat operations on the basis of tank, infantry and airborne brigades were formed autonomous units - battalion tactical groups (BTG), which can independently solve problems on the battlefield. If in a simple way, the BTG is a regular battalion, as a unitary basis, reinforced with reconnaissance company, a company of heavy weapons (if the battalion is infantry one, or a pair of companies of infantry, if it’s formed on the basis of a tank battalion) artillery battery, signals platoon, supply units, repairers and physicians. So a Mechanized Brigade, which has 4,200 people on staff, is divided into two BTGs numbering 1,400 people.

In the places of permanent deployment remain brigade headquarters, rear repair facilities and several combat companies (eg, 4 mechanized and 2 tank ones) for the process of units rotating, compensation of losses and training of incoming reinforcements. BTGs can be armored and infantry. The latter can be heavy and light ones. The heavy BTGs are formed on the basis of mechanized brigades and in the structure include: a reconnaissance company, a sniper company, up to 4 batteries of the barrel artillery and rocket launchers, and can have up to 2 thousand manpower. The light BTGs are formed on the basis of airborne units and other infantry. As a rule, they don’t have own tanks and artillery battalions. But they have high mobility and easy like "Lego" pieces can be mounted in the configuration needed in specific combat conditions and taking into account the specifics of the terrain.

To date, the Ukrainian Army obtains at least eight, and maximum nine heavy BTG based on mechanized brigades. Including: the 24th and 30th brigades provided two BTGs each; the 72th, 92nd, 93rd and 128th brigades – one from each brigade. Unclear is the fate of 51th mechanized brigade. The fact is that after summer total defeat and cases of mass desertion of its units during summer battles it was disbanded by Pooroshenko’s decree. A new, 14th Mechanized Brigade will be formed on its base, which should appear in November – December in reality. Planned. As a matter of fact - God knows. But by the time of the decree in the area of ATO continued to fight relatively operable one BTG belonging to the 51st. It was not removed into rears, but primitively re-subordinated to the 128th Bde HQ and left at the frontline. This causes the above-mentioned uncertainty. If we consider the maximum, the headquarters of ATO has into heavy BTGs 12600 "bayonets", about 130 tanks, about 350 armored vehicles of various types. However, after huge summer "leak" of vehicles, those are vehicles of the second and even third line. Recovered from the storage reserves. Still have almost completely defeated, but quickly restored the 28th mechanized brigade, which was redeployed from the area of ATO and stays in reserve of the General Staff. Based on it is also possible to create one, maximum two, BTGs, but heavy in name only. However, this is still some kind of reserve.

Despite the April incident with the 25th Airmobile Brigade, which in the heat of the moment wanted to entirely disband, during the summer fights they were just airmobile units to show the best combat durability and real effectiveness. Feeling this, the command soon began to score them almost for every nail that turned into a very high price. For example, the 79th airmobile brigade ceased to exist at all. From its remnants managed to scrape together only one battalion. Proudly called - "Phoenix". Nominally it’s also airmobile, but in fact - not much different from the territorial battalions. However, on account it’s airborne BTG, but having strength 600 manpower.

However, the other three brigades fared little better. For example, the remains of two battalions of the 25th Separate Airborne Brigade still sitting surrounded near Djakovo and Petrovskiy. So in sum, the paratroopers were able to create only 4 "light" BTGs, one from each brigade. Plus a very, very light battalion from mountain rifles and actually a company tactical group (300 people) of the 80th separate airmobile regiment. The total number of 4500 "bayonets" and 160-170 armored vehicles. Moreover, most of them are old APCs obtained to replace BMDs lost in fights. Accordingly, the support weapon they have - mostly automatic machine guns instead of turret 30-mm automatic guns.

Huge losses suffered Ukrainian armored units. Not everything was reinforced up to the current moment. A newest "Bulat" tanks the 1st Armored Brigade has not received at all. And seems will never get them. Therefore, to date, two Ukrainian armored brigades were able to put in the first line only two BTGs. And just in August - September it became clear that they were utilized not as a units, but a reserve for dramatically weakened infantry.

Thus battalion of the 1st Brigade was disassembled into companies, and the 17th was scattered along the frontline across the frontline by platoons. Platoon, by the way, is three tanks. Thus, formally, two tank BTGs has about 1,000 personnel, 80-90 tanks, 30 armored vehicles (mainly BMP). In fact, they are scattered in small groups into other units or used as reinforcement in dealing with individual offensive or defensive missions. Although militia already broke the habit of Ukrainian generals to dig tanks at checkpoints.

To calculate accurately the composition of the artillery force APU is not possible. At the moment, we can state only the following general facts. In the area of ATO all three artillery brigades are engaged, all three separate regiments and MLRS and brigade of tactic missiles. The positions of the latter are located near the command post of ATO near Kramatorsk. Active summer fights led to significant losses, which are estimated at 60-65% of the original staff. This suggests the current strength amounted of 1800 manpower and about 80-90 towed and self-propelled guns caliber 152 mm.

One should add their own batteries of battalion tactical groups, usually consisting of a 122 mm towed howitzers D-30 and antitank 100-mm guns MT-12 "Rapira". Normally BTG has from one to four own batteries, but now they are unlikely to have more than one full battery at a battalion. That permits to suggest the total number of guns up "150 mm" caliber to be 60-80. Also one should add about 90-94 towed mortars and not less than 8 230-mm self-propelled mortars "Tulpan". Total: 230-340 guns and mortars of all calibers.

In sum, the Army component of the Ukrainian forces currently has about 20 thousand personnel, about 220 tanks, up to 500 armored vehicles (from the remnants of BMP / BMDs to all sorts of BRDM-2), and approximately 300 guns and mortars. In addition, Ukraine has created such units as the National Guard (formerly the internal forces) battalions of territorial defense battalions patrol special forces battalions of the Interior Ministry and Volunteer Corps "Right sector" battalions. Many of them have intricate structure and the strange double identity, but you can still understand this mess.

To expedite the building of the armed forces in Ukraine, on the basis of administrative regions were formed 32 so-called territorial defense battalions (BTRO) having staff of 430 people (60 officers, 370 privates and sergeants). Three companies of 130 people plus the control section. It was assumed that these battalions will be engaged only in keeping guard and patrol services on the objects in the rear, so no heavy weapons they were not given. Even to this day, almost all of them move on civilian vehicles, armored trucks and tourist buses. In the best case have 4-6 BRDM-2. Most lucky wrung a APC for themselves.

To date, their fate was extremely diverse. Seven BTRO are carrying guard service in different regions of Ukraine. Two - 5th and 12th - rebelled, left the frontline and now making a rumpus in the rears. Authorities are trying to calm down them somehow, but the result is not yet reached. However, from the list of combat-ready units they can be safely discarded. Another four - by rotation redeployed from the zone ATO into places of permanent deployment and were given small vacations. I.e. on paper they presents, but if their soldiers will return back to barracks in the case of another defeat of the army - is the big question. So that they can be not counted right now.

One battalion – 40th BTRO "Kryvbas" was completely destroyed in the pocket 2.0. Its command deserted from the battlefield and nothing can be heard about the fate of this battalion. Another two battalions are still in the formative stage, and can’t be engaged into any operations. Thus, there remain 16 battalions of very light infantry, even more light than paratroopers, having strength, taking into account the already incurred losses and some replenishment as a result of the "third wave of mobilization", counts about 6,400 infantry and about 20 mortars and no heavy weapons of their own . Had to sit in the rear, but an acute shortage of infantry forced commanders to put them in the first line.

In parallel with the territorial defense battalions in the Interior Ministry of Ukraine created battalions patrol special purpose (BPSON) of its personnel. Very specific units with very narrow objectives of "providing the regime in the rear of the army." In essence, they are the police patrol officers who have been dressed into the other kind of uniform and sent to the front. The average number of BPSON - 180-200 men. The main task - service at checkpoints, escorting convoys, clearing of territory after its occupation by the army, the general counterinsurgency operations, identify and detain "suspicious persons and foreign spies." In the first lines appear very rarely. Basically, "working in the rear", but if the HQ staff is in trouble, they can use BPSONs as line infantry.

Total 28 BPSON were formed. However, one of them - the "Shakhtersk" - for the widespread looting disbanded in disgrace, another 7 are located in initial formation points and restoring after total defeat in the battles of July - August. The remaining 20 are in the Zone ATO. The two of them - "Dnepr" and "Azov", - for special merits expanded to regiments numbering 900 people and brought them some own heavy weapons. However, it’s not clear if they had received the promised. Given all the above, the total number of special battalions of the Ministry of Internal Affairs can be assessed at the rate of 5,400 bayonets the same kind of light infantry battalions as territorial defense battalions.

On the basis of the Internal Troops of Ukraine and "patriotic volunteers" in April 2014 was initiated the formation of the National Guard of Ukraine. To date, five battalions are formed (1-5 BON NG) having strength of approximately 490 manpower in each. In fact they are not much, except accessories differs from territorial defense battalions. But are better equipped with the armored vehicles. All BON NG are at ATO and involved in the fighting. By the way, in the basements and tunnels of Donetsk airport fights the 5th BON NG. The total number of National Guard estimated as 2450 manpower and up to 50 units of light armored vehicles.

In addition to a fully formal, in the armed forces of Ukraine, there are components with fuzzy status. They are called - the battalions of the "Right sector," united in “Ukrainian Volunteer Corps” (UDK). Formally under the guidance of the army and the Interior Ministry. Though often carries on "their own war." At the moment, they are all in the area of ATO. 1st Transcarpathian, 2nd Lviv, 3rd Volyn, 4th Rovno, 5th, Ivano-Frankovsk, 6th Ternopil. Information about the existence of a 9th Battalion UDK of the Right sector and the “battalion of the OUN”, but they definitely are not listed among Ukrainian armed forces. The strength of one battalion of the Right sector varies from 240 to 400 people. If we assume average figures, the whole strength of the UDK is approximately 1500-2000 manpower. Armed only with light small arms.

To all these should be added about 900 soldiers from three (2nd Kiev, 3rd Kirovograd and 8th Khmelnitsky) separate special destination regiments (SPN), composite battalion "Berkut" (about 400 manpower), a company of Marines Ukraine (about 200 men), four composite special destination companies of the State Border Service (150 men) of other "experts", for example, from the "special destination units" of the SBU. Similar kinds of "special forces" are amounted up to 2,000 men. Thus, the total number of forces and means that Kiev can use in the expected "big and decisive offensive this weekend" is 38,250 soldiers and officers (plus a certain amount of logistics structures, such as the individual's communication companies, staff officers, engineer battalions, field repair centers, medical companies and other noncombat units). They obtain about 220 tanks, about 600 light armored vehicles of all kinds and types (including frankly inoperable rubbish), and up to 350 guns, mortars and multiple rocket launchers. With almost no strategic reserves.

This is a serious power, but in general I want to note that it is quite far from often declared figure of 60,000 "first line of bayonets". If we draw historical parallels, in the south-east of Ukraine comes spring 1942. Wehrmacht preparing for a decisive offensive. It is still strong, but it is far from being the Wehrmacht of the summer of 1941 and the preparing offensive is certainly decisive, but not like before, on all fronts. Only at one site. Because there are no forces for something greater. Such a picture is observed in general.
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Old 29 Nov 14, 11:09
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http://riafan.ru/156856-bolee-20-tyi...stoke-stranyi/


More than 20,000 soldiers were killed in Ukraine in the east
The real scales of the Civil war is needed to be investigated

Kyiv, 29 November. The total losses of the Ukrainian army, including the paramilitary volunteer corps, exceeded 20 thousand KIA.
According to the Interregional Public Fund for the Promotion of strategic security numerical losses amount to 20,914 soldiers. These are killed Ukrainian military men from April 3 to 27 November of this year. According to some reports, the bodies of those killed in the fighting were exported to Dnepropetrovsk and were annihilated in local crematorium, or were buried at the place of execution. Many of the victims are still listed as missing.

Among the dead - about 3,450 fighters of the "Right sector" as well as 30 mercenaries from special battalions of mercenaries "Dnepr", "Azov" and "Ajdar", about 11 715 soldiers, mostly - from the 25th Dnepropetrovsk Airborne Brigade, Zhitomir 95th airmobile brigade, the 24th motorized brigade of the Lvov region, the 79th airmobile brigade from Nikolaev, 51 Mechanised Brigade of the Vladimir-Volynsky (no longer exists), the 24th mechanized Brigade from Yavorov, Lvov region, 72th mechanized Brigade of the Belaya Tserkov, Kremenchug brigade of General Intelligence of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense and other departments of the Ukrainian army, and about 4,141 employees from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and National Guards, about 379 employees of the Security Service of Ukraine, 243 people from the State Border Service, 1,781 people from other armed Ukrainian units and 88 employees of the CIA, FBI and Special Forces defense Intelligence Agency.

In addition, 630 foreign mercenaries from the Polish private military company «ASBS Othago», American Asademi and her "daughter” Greystone Limited from Canada, Germany, Great Britain, Lithuania, Estonia, Italy, Sweden, Turkey, Czech Republic, Finland, African, Arabian and other countries have been killed in battles in the Donets Basin and the surrounding areas.

Injured 49,673 people. If we believe the data leakage from the closed meeting of the National Security and Defense Council, the losses were 12,000 killed, 19,000 wounded, and nearly five thousand missing. Some of this information is confirmed by hackers "CyberBerkut."

Captured, deserted or went missing about nine thousand people. However, the latter category causes most questions, since it can get not only the military, sided with the breakaway republics, but also the dead, who for various reasons were not included in the list of casualties.
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Estimated losses of Ukrainian forces published on FSB site
Original:
http://www.fssb.su/press-center/pres...raincev-o.html




Overall losses of Ukrainian troops since Apr 3 2014 to Feb. 15 2015
~25,718 soldiers and members of paramilitary units.
Including: 3,729 combatants of the “Right Sector” included in National Guards and 30 mercenaries from special battalions of Kolomoyskiy (“Dnepr”, “Azov”, “Ajdar”) .
~13,862 soldiers of UA forces (mainly form the 25th, 95th,79thAeromobile Brigades, 24th, 51st,72nd Mechanized Brigades and other units

~4,623 policemen and National guards
~379 SBU personnel
249 border guards personnel
88 CIA, FBI, special destination detachments personnel
737 men among personnel of «ASBS Othago» private military company (139 of them from Apr, 22 to July 13, 2014), Асаdemi (125 men), Greystone Limited and others from misc.countries

1,781 men - Other units

52,804 - Wounded


---------

IMHO, some figures (for example for foreingers) are quite an old ones and were published about six months ago
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Old 26 Apr 15, 08:51
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Quote:
Originally Posted by amvas View Post
Estimated losses of Ukrainian forces published on FSB site
Original:
http://www.fssb.su/press-center/pres...raincev-o.html




Overall losses of Ukrainian troops since Apr 3 2014 to Feb. 15 2015
~25,718 soldiers and members of paramilitary units.
Including: 3,729 combatants of the “Right Sector” included in National Guards and 30 mercenaries from special battalions of Kolomoyskiy (“Dnepr”, “Azov”, “Ajdar”) .
~13,862 soldiers of UA forces (mainly form the 25th, 95th,79thAeromobile Brigades, 24th, 51st,72nd Mechanized Brigades and other units

~4,623 policemen and National guards
~379 SBU personnel
249 border guards personnel
88 CIA, FBI, special destination detachments personnel
737 men among personnel of «ASBS Othago» private military company (139 of them from Apr, 22 to July 13, 2014), Асаdemi (125 men), Greystone Limited and others from misc.countries

1,781 men - Other units

52,804 - Wounded


---------

IMHO, some figures (for example for foreingers) are quite an old ones and were published about six months ago
In America, unlike places like Russia, the government cannot cover up deaths of 88 citizens.

Kyiv post has been publishing casualty lists and information from families, they put the number of Ukranian servicemen and paramilitary killed at 2,000-2,800. Separatist militia at 1,400 and Russian military deaths at 400-500. I'm not sure if Chechen and other mercenaries are considered militia or russian military from my source.

Seems very plausible given the brigade and regiment sized unit engagements. The unit sizes are small therefore these "pockets" appear to be more propaganda than reality as troops seem to just drive out with their equipment subject to artillery.

Also units that get "destroyed" seem to return to service such as the 95th airmobile amongst others.

I'm not trying to downplay the casualties but it certainly is not in the nbers suggested by this thread. Like everything else in this ukranian-russian war propoganda is prevalent. For example six brigades suffered 13,000 casualties as stated above - units that are still serving front line duties - That's probably the old divide by 100 propaganda play.
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