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Go Back   Armchair General and HistoryNet >> The Best Forums in History > Current Events > Russia, Central Asia, and The Caucasus > Ukrainian Crisis

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Ukrainian Crisis Discuss the unfolding crisis in Ukraine.

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  #16  
Old 28 Aug 14, 09:44
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Ukrainian battalions:

Dnepr:
Activists of the "Right Sector"
>500 men
Formed Apr. 14, 2014 after initiative of Igor Kolomoiskiy

"Azov":
Police Patrol company of special destincation.
volunteers of:
"Automajdan"
"Patriots of Ukraine"
"Social-National Assembly"
"Self-Defense of Majdan"
300 men
Formed in May 2014 in Mariupol. Redeployed later to Berdyansk

Donbass:
630 men, 4000 in reserve
Formed in Dnepropetrovsk, Under patronage of Igor Kolomoiskiy

"Ajdar":
Activists of "Self-Defense of Majdan"
Formed in May 2014 by initative of its commander Sergei Melnichuk

"Kiev":
430 privates and 32 officers
********

This listing looks to be not complete, because many battalions are not listed
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  #17  
Old 02 Sep 14, 05:16
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http://antifashist.com/item/za-4-mes...-chelovek.html

Givin losses of Ukrainian army for 4 months of fights:

During the four months of fighting in the Donbass Ukrainian troops have lost 43027 people. 27 888 out of those were killed or wounded, taken prisoners - 1649 and 13 500 deserted or missing. Private military companies also suffered causalities.

Most of all the "Right sector" lost in combat - more than 7000 KIA and WIA. Most of them belonged to the Ukrainian National Guard. 1649 members of the radical right-wing organizations were captured. Battalions "Dnepr", "Donbass", "Tchernigov", "Ajdar", "Azov" and "Kherson", etc.. lost 6168 killed and wounded personnel.
SBU, encroaching on the freedom of residents of Donbass, lost 115 people. 460 men lost their foreign mercenaries - private military companies providing "services" to Kiev. Most of all lost Polish ASBS Othago - 194 people and the American Asademi - 160 people.
Total losses of Ukrainian Armed Forces amounted to 14,889 military personnel, including 120 police officers. Also, at the headquarters of the militia reported 25 killed among personnel of American intelligence agencies - the FBI and the CIA.
"For four months Kiev lost 43 aircraft and 22 helicopters. Among them, Polish and Croatian Su-25, as well as six drones. Militia managed to destroy 448 tanks, 827 armored personnel carriers, infantry fighting vehicles and BMD, 37" Grad "19 "Uragan "and about 100 units of various artillery of various calibers, including 40 mortars and several hundred cars, "- according to data DNR Staff.
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  #18  
Old 02 Sep 14, 07:34
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Do you have any reliable data? These seems a bit incredible concerning that there were only supposed to be around 50 000 men in the Ukrainian fighting force.
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  #19  
Old 02 Sep 14, 08:44
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Regarding croatian airplane and helicopters:

Croatia never operated Su-25, so they don't have them.
In Odessa they are now finishing repair and modernization of croatian MiG-21 (some of them were purchased from Ukraine).

There were some news that Croatia will send their Mi-8, Mi-17, possibly Mi-24 to Ukraine and receive american MH-60, but so far this is only rumor.

----

Regarding shipment of Hungarian T-72, there is interview with Harkov Malyshev tank plant. They are keeping almost 500 tanks there, of which half could be sent to units quickly. Currently they are working full scale for foreign customers, there are no orders from Ukraine Ministry of defense.
Those tanks are probably also for export. Ukraine has lot of their tanks ready for repair, and obviously no many to do it.
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  #20  
Old 02 Sep 14, 08:53
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Quote:
Originally Posted by amvas View Post
During the four months of fighting in the Donbass Ukrainian troops have lost 43027 people. 27 888 out of those were killed or wounded, taken prisoners - 1649 and 13 500 deserted or missing. Private military companies also suffered causalities.
If those data are compiled from rebel sources it is good example that opponents tend to overstate enemy's losses by several times.
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  #21  
Old 02 Sep 14, 10:43
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Karri,

These numbers are probably overstated, but that 50,000 does not include the paramilitary battalions (Donbass, Aidar, Azov) which have taken an over representative amount of the casualties. I don't think the number includes national gaurd raised since the war started.

Ukraine probably sent in the neighborhood of 70,000 soldiers east, maybe more.
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  #22  
Old 02 Sep 14, 14:26
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Analysis on Ukranian forces casualties

Quote:
Originally Posted by vathra View Post
If those data are compiled from rebel sources it is good example that opponents tend to overstate enemy's losses by several times.
Some of the data come from hacked internal ucranian documents, moreover, the data are dimensionally correct, as far as I can reason.

Using a historical example, roughly speaking, the Spanish Civil War lasted a thousand days and both armies suffered 100.000 dead together (50K for Nationalist, 60K for Reds). That gives us an average daily casualty rate for each army of 50 thousand dead and from statistics, five times as many wounded. Let's say 300 casualties daily. Of course that is the average taking into account quiet periods. One of the bloodiest battles of the war, Brunete, fought in July 1937, wich was attritional positional warfare very much like Wolrd War I, had 40.000 casualties (a 20% loss) on 20 days. The defeated Reds suffered 1.000 casualties per day. Due to the bitterness of the fighting and the heat, an unusual high proportion were dead, changing the dead/wounded ratio to 1 to 3. Incidentally, Brunete is a very apt comparison since it was fought in ground and climate very like the Ukranian steppe, but of course, comprising much larger forces, compressed in a fraction of the time, and fought with much higher tenacity and bitterness by many orders of magnitude superior to what Ukranian forces have shown in this conflict, so the comparison can only go so far. I only mention it as an example of the daily loss rate in a hard fought infantry battle, but not to the extremes of Verdun or Stalingrad, typical for average offensive on WWII.

Rounding up 30.000 Ukranian dead and wounded in four months amounts to 250 daily casualties. Since the Ukranians have been engaging for July and August in high intensity positional warfare, launching repeated frontal assaults, and being repelled at every turn, this figure seems dimensionally correct and fits with rebel reports. On a quiet day, there were reports of a hundred casualties, wich can be considered the minimum for a 200km front with 50,000 troops in the line and including partisan attacks in the rearguards, losses from snipers, mines, harassing artillery and mortar fire.

At the moment of maximum effort when the Ukranians threw everything they had against Shaktyorsk (around 10 August IIRC) they suffered 700 casualties in dead and wounded. In addition, the successful Novorrussians offensives created pockets with thousands encircled, in the last week of July with the Southern Cauldron, and last week with the offensives on the southern front, plus the destruction of the Lugansk airport pocket, with ensuing casualties as those pockets are hammered with artillery and rockets, or columns are shot up in futile breakout attempts. Over the past week, the Ukranians have suffered 10.000 casualties, around a thousand daily, if you substract that about half were made prisoner, that is a rate of 500 killed and dead per day.


I chose the Spanish Civil War as a comparison because it's a war I know well. Daily rates for WWII fronts would of course be much higher, but what is important is the relative proportion. Think of the SCW as the Italian campaign in 1943 but multiplied several times over (at one point Franco led more troops than Eisenhower ever had). If anything, the figures and the impression that I get from battle reporting is that this is a low intensity war fought on the Ukranian side by amateurs and reluctant conscripts using a lot of spray and pray firing, and with the added benefit of lots of armoured vehicles, instead of dramatic infantry assaults leaving scores of dead and wounded on the barbed wire and dozens of tanks burning, like in both world wars and the SCW, the Ukranian army seems to have bled to death from a thousand paper cuts. No major assaults, just constant skirmishing with company size groups, battallions for big pushes, supported by penny packets of tanks., wich withdraw as soon as they encounter strong resistance, after losing a couple vehicles to RPG ambushes.

The scale of the casualties seem to fit with the losses of matériel in tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery, wich are easier to track. Check my other post in this subject:

http://www.armchairgeneral.com/forum...postcount=1091

Summing it up, the Ukranian army bogged down in a prolonged low intensity attrition by means of positional warfare, and when spent, and pinned without reserves, was encircled and chopped to pieces.

Of course, those figures are suspect unless truly based in internal documents of the Ukranian army, I believe the figures are a mix of Ukranian data, and estimates by the Novorrussian, though dimensionally correct they may err as much as by 20%, either way, but given the Ukranian battlefield reverses and witness reports I have received from people inside Ukraine, concerning casualties and the recruitment efforts, a minimum of 20,000 killed and wounded can be accepted as certain, and an absolute minimum of 5,000 killed.

Of course, most of the wounded might return to their units at sometime, given 4 months have passed some might have been unlucky enough to be wounded twice.

Last edited by von Junzt; 02 Sep 14 at 14:35..
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  #23  
Old 03 Sep 14, 04:06
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Karri View Post
Do you have any reliable data? These seems a bit incredible concerning that there were only supposed to be around 50 000 men in the Ukrainian fighting force.
Knowing about awful losses of the Ukrainian army those figures doesn't looks too much unreliable. Of course, they can be not exact, but I think they are quite realistic.
Ukrainian armed forces included not only army, but also different paramilitary units and units of internal troops. Besides all there were performed two waves of mobilization. So, 50000 manpower is estimated strength in one moment. That means, that ukrainian command can try to keep this figure more or less constant basing on recruiting of new soldiers.
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Old 03 Sep 14, 04:07
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vathra View Post
If those data are compiled from rebel sources it is good example that opponents tend to overstate enemy's losses by several times.
Nobody argues those figure could be overestimated. But IMHO they are not too far from the reality. Casaulities of Ukrainian units are really awful

Quote:
Regarding croatian airplane and helicopters:

Croatia never operated Su-25, so they don't have them.
In Odessa they are now finishing repair and modernization of croatian MiG-21 (some of them were purchased from Ukraine).

There were some news that Croatia will send their Mi-8, Mi-17, possibly Mi-24 to Ukraine and receive american MH-60, but so far this is only rumor.
About Su-25, the rebel source can be mistaken from which country they were received. Not always it can be traced correctly. Those ones also could be transit planes, as it's known Croatia is a country, which is used for arms transit
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Old 03 Sep 14, 04:55
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I find it hard to believe they could be so incompetent. OTOH, we have no idea of rebel losses, they seem to be quite significant as well.
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Old 03 Sep 14, 05:39
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I find it hard to believe they could be so incompetent. OTOH, we have no idea of rebel losses, they seem to be quite significant as well.
Yep, in some days rebels losses were as much as 40 KIA and WIA.
But it's very hard to calculate exact losses of their forces. First of all because there weer no central command. And secondly because every side is not interesting in official publication of those figures.
And we can't rely on Ukrainian sources in this subject, because they looks pure fantasies.
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Old 04 Sep 14, 16:15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by amvas View Post
Yep, in some days rebels losses were as much as 40 KIA and WIA.
That's a reasonable figure and fits with my dimensional analysis.

Given the initial disparity of forces 5 to 1 in favor of Ukraine (50K troops vs 10K), if the Ukies managed to kill or wound 1 rebel for every 4 men they lose, they would have won simply by sheer attrition. That the rebel force not only could replace their losses but grow in size while the Ukranian force just struggled to cope and maintain the force level, suggest the rebel reports don't exagerate and have maintained a very high kill/loss ratio.

I came up with an average 250 casualties per day for the Ukranian army. If Novorussians lost 50 casualties per day, in a deliberate pessimistic estimate, using the example given by Amvas that 50 losses is a bad day for the rebels, they must have suffered 5.000-6.000 casualties in the same period. That 5 to 1 ratio means they held, but barely, in the first months and strength gradually grew until the first promotion of volunteers trained in Russia was ready to join the ranks.

Furthermore, very lopsided kill/loss ratios are not unusual in warfare, particularly on the defense. But also on the offensive. The invasion of the Soviet Union is a prime example, with reduced German forces encircling much larger Soviet formations and anhilating them at very low cost to themselves.

Anyway, the problem is not that the Ukranian army has suffered grievous casualties, the problem is that their logistics and mobilization defficiences mean they could only field a force of 50.000 men, and that their recruitment effort is so bad due to lack of support and massive draft dodging, that they cannot replace their losses. They were maxed out at the start and they are declining, while the Novorussians numbers are ever growing.

The massive casualties could be replaced, but Kiev has lost a large number of regular troops, and with them, irreplaceable cadres for follow up movilization. The junta will also had trouble replacing trained personnel like armor crews and artillerists.
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Old 04 Sep 14, 16:45
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A wiki with updated info on the present status of Ukrainian military units...

http://acloserlookonsyria.shoutwiki....n_Armed_Forces
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  #29  
Old 19 Sep 14, 16:20
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Update:

I have seen a news item that a spokesman of the Right Sector admits that the Ukranian armed forces, both regular and paramilitary suffered 10,000 dead in the war so far, probably a rounded number

This is consistent with all the previous reports from the Novorussian side, by 21 August, given the typical ratio of 3:1 for wounded and dead, one could assume around 5,000 killed. One month later, considering the huge losses inflicted by the Novorussian offensive, this is consistent with that 10,000 dead figure.

Either the Novorussian intelligence is very good at keeping track of enemy casualties, or the hacked Ukranian documents on losses are true, or both.
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Old 20 Sep 14, 03:53
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Update:

Ukranian side admits the Novorussians found and counted 500 corpses of their own forces found in the zones of Starobeshevo, Ilovaysk y Saur-Mohyla, sites of the recent fighting, added to 1.336 bodies examined in the morgues of Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhye, Kharkov and regions of Donetsk

http://www.ostro.org/general/society/news/454731/

Confirmation of the estimates of 2,000 dead for the last month and that Novorussian reports and estimates are plausible and close to truth.
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