Back then, probably yes but what will he do with it after he takes it ?
But first the mud must dry obviously
High The Admiral Snowy, Commander In Chief of the Naval Forces of The Phoenix Confederation.
Francis II, Holy Roman Emperor - The Napoleonic Wars Campaign.
Captain Atticus Finch - ACW Rainbow Co.
Ukraine admits ten thousand dead soldiers from "non combat causes"
The Chief Military Prosecutor of Ukraine Anatoly Matios on the air of the ZIK television channel told about the losses of the army from the beginning of military operations in the Donbass.
"I will say those things that no one has ever heard. And they will be scary. From 2014 until now, in the Armed Forces and all those who received weapons for the protection of the state, 10,103 people were killed not because of hostilities. Among them, 2,150 were killed in the ATO zone not from military operations. 935 were wounded - not from military operations, "he admitted.
Of course they are lying, the fatalities should be the other way around, 10,000 dead in combat and 2,000 in accidents and other causes.
Except that the death toll is already double that if not more. It's only significant because they are finally admitting in an oblique way that they have suffered tens of thousands of casualties.
With more on the way, last week I read the following reports
Nazi battallion leader admits heavy losses
Biletsky said that the APU is losing in the Donbass, where the corpses of the Ukrainan soldiers (ATOshnikov) are flowing
he Ukrainian government gives out wishful thinking when it tells about the creation of a supposedly superpower army.
This was stated by the founder of the battalion "Azov", Verkhovna Rada deputy Andrey Biletsky in an interview with the Kiev Internet publication "Apostrophe". According to him, Ukraine "absolutely degraded economically"
In addition, he complains about the state of affairs in the Ukrainian armed forces.
"You see, it's impossible to talk about parades that we created a superpower army and so on. People understand on the subcortex that the army during the war looks good only by victories, not by parades. And we have huge defeats and a capitulatory, cowardly position of the Ukrainian authorities towards Russia. Therefore, to pretend that nothing is happening on the streets of Kiev, not our soldiers are being taken dead to the Dnieper (Dnipropetrovsk) and the wounded are transported to the Mechnikov hospital by helicopters ... The authorities have nothing to boast, except that now the country is completely impoverished, "says the founder of Azov.
Awaiting for the end of year summaries from the Donetsk republic, here's a summary of the war this year, gathering my postings during the autumn. The war is being won and lost. The pendulum is swinging to the center.
Artillery ammunition will run out more or less within a year after major losses of stocks in depot explosions at Kharkov in spring and Vinnitsa in autumn. Some deliveries of small arms and cartridges from Eastern Europe only stretch out the supply, don't solve the problem
Mass draft dodging
There's mass draft dodging (70% on average, in some regions 90%) and the Ukrainian army is shrinking from a combination of casualties, desertion , and mass quitting of soldiers who have finished their term and are leaving the ranks, demoralized or upset for wages unpaid.
"Nothing like this was not in 2015, nor in the past years. Even two years ago, when the scale of the fighting in the southeast of Ukraine was much more fierce than today, when the Debaltsevo "kettle" boiled with blood and the "boiler" of Ilovaisky was still not forgotten, the young Ukrainians did not run so fast from the army. Hence, despite the long-standing lull at the front, interrupted only by occasional gunfire,
[that's the fiction officially reported by everybody concerned, both sides and their sponsors, actually just from listening everyday to the cannonade and gun fire coming from the front is obvious a real war is going on, every day]
there is clearly something going on the mood of the Ukrainian population . And this "something" is going to alarm Kiev for sure, if the regime reigning in it intends to survive politically."
This year there have been more than 5.000 deserters (or 5% of the hundred thousand army total), of wich only 2.000 are in search and capture. This comes from Ukrainian sources and is very relevant and significant as they are for the most part irrecoverable casualties. It's a very high percentage, in modern history, an army with a 10% desertion rate is on the verge of collapse. It's also even more striking considering the Ukrainian army is now mostly a volunteer force on contract, at least the half in the frontline, and conscripts in theory are not sent anymore to the first line of combat, though troop shortages have made commanderts to resort to use them to guard line of communications (road checkpoints) and construction of trenches.
Again it's a very high number because for 2014-2015 there were 10 thousand desertions, and the number was maxed out then as it is in the initial phase of a civil war when soldiers caught in the wrong zone switch sides or desert. Since then, the regime has ceased to try conscript Russian-speakers from Eastern Ukraine and keep them away from the frontlines, while the brunt of the recruiting falls on Western Ukraine.
I am of the opinion, shared by others, that as in 2014-2015 the junta is hiding partially its numbers of killed in action reporting them as deserters and missing. That could well explain the contradiction of the official figures of a total of 5,500 deserters and only arrest warrants issued for 2,000, wich in addition includes those deserters from previous years. Not bothering to do the paperwork for "deserters", wich they know they are actually dead.
So that would indicate a concealed figure of at least 3.500 killed in combat this year, wich given that the fighting has been comparable or more intense this year than in 2016, and the reports about arrival of wounded to rear hospitals, and graves being dug in advance of mass burials, makes it quite plausible means a total of between 5.000-7.000 killed this year.
There's also evidence that this 5.500 deserters figure may be accurate, on top of the combat losses. I heard from a source in the militia in Lugansk that in their sector of the frente they received many Ukrainian soldiers that came over to Novorussian lines to surrender. Could not have been more that a few dozens over months, I didn't make it much out of it, other than the confirmation that the junta army was so short of troops they had to send unwilling conscripts to the front, and these taking the opportunity to switch sides or simply surrendering to avoid misery, wounds and death, wich again, confirms the war is quite intense and the risk of being killed is high enough to make desertion or surrender and attractive choice.
In theory the frontline soldiers are volunteers, but it seems that many are "ordered to volunteer"
"However, nothing changes the fact that according to the law, conscript soldiers are forbidden to be sent to the front line in the Donbas. All interested parties know perfectly well that the commanders of the Ukrainian army have long learned to perfectly circumvent this ban. After served at least six months the recruit is advsied by its commanders to write a statement about the desire to become an immediate contractor. If the conscript refuses - the starting barracks pressure begins in the most severe form. The arsenal of pressure methofs for this is quite large, it is known to anyone who wore military uniform. As a result, many recent conscripts "volunteer" to go to trenches . And then often - home in zinc coffins or in a hospital for treatment."
That would explain why some came over to the Novorussian trenches to surrender, either are conscripts, or "forced volunteers", but there could also be contract volunteers having enough of it, wich confirms the low morale of the Ukrainian troops. I repeat these are thousands of desertions, not just abandoning positions or being absent without leave, that undiscipline is a common occurrence.
I think the reported desertion number is just a way to conceal the dead, and those only of the regular those of the paramilitary, police, and the nazi battallions are never accounted for. But given the mass draft dodging at the rear and some supporting evidence of demoralization at the front it's quite possible it's a true figure.
Now it's quite obvious in hidnsight and explains why there was no summer offensive this year, not even the usual aggravation as in previous summers, because the Ukrainian army was exhausted and lacking in manpower, reaching is lowest in June, with 40.000 bayonets, with coincided with some small tactical gains here and there by the Novorussians, either by coup de main, or occupation of abandoned positions.
Another call up of conscripts this autumn is failing to met quotas, and anyway, any replacements will be absorbed by the need to guard remaining ammunition warehouses against sabotage, wich would absorb a minimum of 10 thousand troops. No improvement at all has been seen in Ukrainian army, wich despite NATO instructors and advisers keeps stupidly killing its troops in senseless unsupported small attacks, and the artillery is not firing better.
"In such conditions, sources from the Ukrainian capital report, the command of the Armed Forces for raising the morale of the long-demoralized personnel makes the only possible thing - it regularly organizes the seemingly absolutely meaningless small sallies of subversive and reconnaissance groups and the "improvement of positions" by seizing certain heights and settlements in the "gray zone". It does not really affect anything and does not bring about a general victory. But the military creates the illusion of its own usefulness for the cause they serve. And at least it keeps the soldiers busy"
There's now approximate parity in number of forces in the frontline, with each side having 40 thousand bayonets, but Donbass has now a higher potential for mobilization of trained reserves. Behind the front, Kiev has only poorly armed occupation troops, and in theory has more manpower, but it's dubious they can reenlist the surviving conscripts from the years 2014-2015, wich likely have fled the country, or would go into hiding, and would be of very low morale if dragged to the front to fight again.
It's clear that the repressive machinery of the state has not the means nor manpower to catch but a fraction of draft dodgers when there's such a mass evasion.
That's the gist of it. For more and sources, use google translate to read my blog entry.
b]The Ukrainian general named the main problems of the AFU[/b]
13 December, 23:02
The deputy commander of the land forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for logistics Major General Yuri Tolonchny told us what the burning problems of the Ukrainian army are. Among them - a deficit of ammunition and inefficiency of armored vehicles.
In general, he said, there was a very "serious situation with ammunition" - the Ukrainian army has "a number of scarce calibers," including rifle, artillery and missile. As a result, limits on the consumption of artillery ammunition have been introduced in the army, and in a year or two a shortage of ammunition will be critical. In connection with this, he called the construction of the cartridge factory in Ukraine "a screaming necessity."
He pointed to the failed Ukrainian developments. So, the upgraded tank T-64BM "Bulat", he said, was "unsuccessful in real combat."
"T-64BM Bulat tanks were inefficient due to their heavy weight and weak engine, they were transferred to the reserve and replaced by linear T-64s," Tolokny explained. According to him, the potential for modernization of old tanks is almost exhausted.
The major-general noted that serious problems exist in the Air Force of the country - in particular, the difficult situation with spare parts and the degree of deterioration of the park.
"They endlessly extend the lifespan of technology, but you know, it's one thing - to extend the lifespan, say, the tank, and quite another - the aircraft. The consequences of failure are completely different. Therefore, a significant part of the fleet of vehicles in the air does not rise into the air, "Tolokny said , adding that the airfield network was also destroyed during the years of independence.
An instrument employed in the rectification of national boundaries.
Someone asked about the current hot spot and is worth reposting the summary
The Ukrops "advanced" and occupied the two villages in no-man's-land, Gladosovo and Metallist (before the decommunization renaming). A few platoons. A senseless move, since the villages are dominated from the heights where the main line of resistance of the Novorussians is sited, so the enemy troops there take constant casualties from sniping and machine gun fire. So the defenders are in not a hurry to push them out of the villages, as keeping a garrison there makes the orks incurr in constant casualties.
Still, it's an irritant for the defenders because more enemy fire falls on Gorlovka and surrounding villages. It would be best to dislodge them, but I am not a trained infantry officer and can't asses if it is worth it or not.
They talk about the enemy sustaining two dozen dead as if it were a big deal. It's just one killed per day. As usual, that is only what the enemy is admitting. Judging by the helicopter medevacs going on and the dozens of wounded arriving at Kiev and Kharkov hospitals, the situation is far worse. Anyway, that's only one hot spot of a front that has many chronic ulcers, like the Promko zone at Avdeyevka.
Basically it seems that the Ukrops wanted to make a good push against Gorlovka but got bogged down in those two villages due to incompetent planning and poor operational security. Business as usual.
And today late at night hours after I wrote that came a little confirmation of the casualties, from the Ukrainain side. In spoiler because there's a long list of casualties, wich is interesting in showing the age of the troopers.
Ukrainian volunteer said that the headquarters of "ATO" more than two times understates the number of losses of APU
Antimaydan Ukraine ,
The fact that the Ukrainian military command and the Kiev regime, which protect the APU, disregard the losses of servicemen at the front - it's no secret. The life of ordinary people for the ruling European ruling elite is of no value.
On the contrary, there is obviously a desire for maximum utilization of the population. Especially, one that is capable of holding a weapon, and which, as reasonably feared by the regime, can be deployed against it. All this is known, but it is very rarely ascertained in Ukrainian mass propaganda. However, sometimes a bitter truth emerges and there. The Ukrainian volunteer said that the headquarters of the so-called ATO reduces the losses of the Armed Forces at the front more than twice.
This volunteer Dima Cherny wrote on the social network.
He published a full list of dead fighters of the Armed Forces in November and December, confirming the personal data of the militants, whose bodies the volunteers had to remove from the "ATO" zone.
"I do not understand what prevents the General Staff from telling the truth?" Based on official statements, there were only 7 dead from December 1 to 13, and this is a blatant lie. Personally, with the guys from December 1 to 4, the export on our bus is 5 - "200" only from Under Gorlovka Why should this lie? Society must know that aggression is continuing!
Ukraine should know its Heroes, it is their names that should be read every day by Vasily Labai.
According to the headquarters of the ATU, in November and December, among our brothers, 21 people were killed and 69 people were injured.
But the list of guys who died in November and December of 2017 according to my information.
This list is much broader than the ATO Headquarters officially submits:
Sirotenko S.V. (Third), born in 1977.
Kurbatov S.V. (Lawyer), born in 1980.
Kochemazov S. (Kamaz)
Korenovsky S.V., born in 1979.
Nesterenko VA, born in 1964
Tyurenko Yu. V., born in 1969
Pashchenko II, b.
Nichvidyuk VM 1989 b.r.
Mishko A.V. (Toha), born in 1985.
Danilov RO 1990 b.
Iorgov OG 1985 b.
Makarevich V. Ya 1981 b.
Dobrovolsky A. 1996 of the b.
Korolkov P.1986 of the river.
Kalihalin M., born in 1988.
Pasichnik V., 1993
Kuzmenko A. 1980 b.
Gavrilyuk Yu. O.
Smuraga A.P. (Smurfik), born in 1989.
Zaets O. 1975 b.
Motishen V. 1983 b.
Krivenko DV (Ninja), born in 1981.
Shevchenko S.P. (Sheva), b.
Sukhinin A.V. (Bathhouse), born in 1972.
Tyumentsev A. (Tyumen), born in 1978.
Litvinchuk D.Yu. 1992 b.
Perepelitsa MO 1990 born
Maslov V. O., born in 1968.
Matyukhin V. (Kazakh) 51
Konokeenko D. 1991 b.
Alexander Gorniy 1995 year of birth
Satanovskiy S., 1993
Rudik Yu., Born in 1971.
Yesyuk R. 42
Dubey I. 29
Tverdola A., born in 1970.
Proshkin A. "Proha"
Parasochka G. Kolobok born in 1975
Karakostantin F. 1994 of the b.
Zelmanovich, V.I. 1992 b.
Zubchenko A., born in 1990, "- wrote the volunteer.
"Just think, the headquarters of" ATO "for a month and a half announced the death of 22 of its servicemen, and the volunteers took out of the" ATO "body of 49 dead fighters of the Ukrainian army," writes Cherny.
Comment: It's actually much worse than what this volunteer can see personally. And that's just coming from one hot spot of the front.
The OSCE scumbags also admit the fighting has worsened. A lot.
An instrument employed in the rectification of national boundaries.
The bad: the war is going to last longer as they are receiving supplies from the West
The good: is indirect confirmation of the intensity of the war and the ammunition shortage. The small stuff, RPG and grenade launchers rounds is not interesting nor relevant, but the mention of 100mm rounds means either they are getting old rounds for the obsolete AT guns used in lieu of missiles, or may be a reference to tank rounds, of wich the Ukrops lost a lot at Kharkov ammo depot explosion. The mention of heavy 152mm shells is consistent with the reports of the scarcity of this caliber, as they are used sparingly.
Ukraine seems to still have a good supply of 122mm shells. They lost a lot of towed artillery but repaired hundreds of Gvozdika self propelled guns (they have 500-600 of these as reported recently) by installing Swedish motors, as replacement for the 152mm SP that they lost, because they cannot repair existing chassis of the heavier piece.
So the supplies prolong the war, but do not seem to be significant enough to alter the outcome. Ukraine would need to receive hundreds of tanks and artillery pieces and tens of thousands of tons of ammunition to replace the losses of 2014-2015 and enjoy a significant superiority in materiel.
Media: Ukraine receives ammunition from at least five countries
According to various sources, ammunition is supplied by Poland, Romania, Bulgaria and Lithuania
At least five European countries are supplying ammunition to Ukraine, Pavel Barbul , the head of the Ukrainian state enterprise (GP), said on December 25, Apostrophe.
According to him, for the needs of the Armed Forces, grenade launchers VOG-17 and VOG-25, other ammunition for grenade launchers, artillery shells of caliber 100 mm and 152 mm are supplied. At the same time, Barbul refused to name specific countries that carry out deliveries.
"We have situations when some companies can not get licenses for the supply of supplies for two years, " said Barbul.
The publication also quotes the words of military expert Mikhail Zhirokhov that, judging by the photo? and video records, supplies to Ukraine of ammunition are engaged in Romania, Bulgaria, Poland and Lithuania.
Recall, Canada previously allowed Ukraine to import Canadian weapons. At the same time, Ottawa noted that this is not about direct supplies to Ukraine, but about commercial purchases from the Ukrainian government of arms in Canada.
On the problem of shortage of ammunition in the AFU.
Nearly 600 self-propelled artillery units for a massive attack on the positions of the Donbas militia have been brought into combat readiness by the Ukrainian military. This was announced on Wednesday, December 20, by the Bulletin of Mordovia.
At the disposal of the siloviki, according to the data provided, more than 220 self-propelled howitzers 2C1 "Gvozdika" and about 300 units of 152-millimeter "Acacia" arrived. In addition, in the line are the self-propelled guns "Hyacinth", "Msta-S", as well as 203-mm "Peonies", capable of hitting targets at a distance of up to 47 kilometers.
The publication notes that, in addition to self-propelled artillery, the military has more than 1.2 thousand towed guns and rocket launcher systems.
In fact, such power would long ago allow suppressing all firing points of the NDP and the LNR.
"This information causes me personally to doubt," said Vladimir Orlov, an expert at the Center for Military and Political Journalism. - According to the estimates that the corps of the People's Militia of the People's Democratic Republic has, this data is overstated three times. And then we will find that the forces of the parties - the APU on the one hand and the armed forces of the Donbas republics on the other - are comparable. The APU has little superiority in artillery and tanks, but it is not important, especially if the Ukrainian army tries to go on the offensive, such an advantage for the victory over the corps of the people's militia is clearly not enough.
In addition, the Ukrainian army has great problems with ammunition. We remember that a whole series of fires took place in military warehouses, which, according to some estimates, destroyed up to half the APU ammunition. At the same time, they spend a considerable part of the shells ineptly, without aiming at the Donbas.
We must also understand that during the war, the resource of guns is quickly exhausted, of which they are often fired. And they have nothing to compensate for the old weapons, by and large.
They could theoretically change the trunks of old guns, but even this can not yet be done.
"JV": - Nevertheless, recently the bombardment of the cities of the People's Republic of China and the People's Republic of Germany has intensified. This could mean the approach of a large military operation of APU?
- I think it is unlikely. And for the residents of the Donbass it is even worse, because Kiev is just interested in conducting regular disturbing attacks, but not to bring the matter to the hot phase of the conflict. I admit that the APU is intensifying the shelling along the entire front line. However, they are unlikely to decide to resume shelling of the center of Donetsk or Lugansk. Because they understand: the answer will follow very harsh and the consequences for the Ukrainian military will be painful. And the large-scale offensive of the Ukrainian army is hardly worth waiting for. Perhaps, individual attacks will be strengthened by small units in order to occupy more advantageous positions in the gray zone.
"JV": - If you evaluate artillery dueling of the last year, who is more effective in them, in your opinion? There are reports that militiamen sometimes manage to destroy whole batteries of APU.
- Yes, not so long ago there was such a case near Svetlodarsk. As for the effectiveness of the artillery of the parties, it must be understood that the troops have been standing in the same place for almost three years. At the same time artillery requires accuracy. In artillery, people with mathematical abilities who are able to count quickly are selected. So, for three years every hillock, every ravine in the zone of military operations on both sides is perfectly shot. In such conditions it is impossible to deploy the battery and shoot for a long time on the enemy. As soon as the "return" arrives.
"SP": - In such conditions, probably because of the mobility of the APU it is convenient to use tanks?
- Most of the tanks are withdrawn from the front line at distances from which they can not be used for shelling. As a rule, with the help of tanks APU conduct night reconnaissance by fighting, covering the infantry. One or two tanks and infantry fighting vehicles enter the battle. For tanks in the Donbas, they rarely use tanks.
Again, according to the data published by the People's Militia Corps of the People's Republic of Germany, the Supreme Armed Forces have superiority in tanks by about a quarter.
"JV": - By the way, the amount of ammunition in the APU is extremely contradictory information. Sometimes the Ukrainian generals themselves say that there are almost no shells and missiles for some weapons.
- Here the fundamental point is that the production of ammunition in Ukraine has not been established. Yes, they are trying to do something for mortars, but they do not have much to do with ammunition for heavy weapons, for rocket launchers. Every year more and more old ammunition goes out of order - the gunpowder gets dirty, it cakes up. That is, many munitions simply will not work or, even worse, can explode in the trunk.
"SP": - In the APU, before, not very much guarded the personnel.
- Now the attitude has changed. They treat the personnel more carefully. Although they do not always get it. Especially when in some units the level of moral and business qualities is extremely low. In the same village Luganskaya there are incidents without incident when drunken soldiers of the APU are provoking the local population to a conflict.
However, to insert a projectile of questionable quality into the gun, they now, most likely, will not. Because they were taught the experience of 2014-2016, when there was a mass of deaths of Ukrainian soldiers from the ruptures of their own guns.
- By the time of the collapse of the USSR, there was approximately as much equipment on the territory of Ukraine as the "Bulletin of Mordovia" indicates, "says military expert Alexander Shirokorad. - Now this weapon is much smaller. At the moment, the exact data of the availability of military equipment do not know, probably, in the APU itself. The data varies. A considerable part of their artillery they sold to the Third World countries, a lot was lost in Donbass boilers in 2014-2015. As for ammunition, now in Sumy and other places are trying to establish the production of some species, but so far the result is not noticeable. At the most, several hundred new mines and shells were received by the APU. It happens that the APU has to use ammunition even in the sixties of the last century. Despite the supply of shells from the countries of the former socialist camp, despite the fact that the Americans sometimes hand over Soviet-style shells to Ukraine, which they captured in Afghanistan and Iraq, the reserves of the Armed Forces will suffice for just two or three weeks of a full-scale war. Therefore, in fact, Kiev is now interested in drawing out time in the hope that something will come up later.
A trailer to this material is worth noting that attempts have been made to address the problem of a shortage of production capacity and losses during explosions at artillery depots. In 2018, plans were announced https://korrespondent.net/ukraine/39...pasov-poltorak commissioning a shell plant that must close part of the APU's need for ammunition for artillery guns and, first of all, in old-style shells (there are 122-mm and 152-mm projectiles).
But while these statements of Poltorak rather reflect good wishes. Even Poltorak himself admits that the 1.4 billion hryvnias allocated for the construction of the plant is only a part of the necessary means, but there is no special way, since there is a deficit of certain ammunition that one way or another must be produced. Therefore, of course they will build - the question is only when and where they will find the money and in what time they can start the plant. As for the year 2018, I strongly doubt that in 2019, it is more likely. It is worth remembering that the need to build a shell factory was spoken in Ukraine back in 2015-2016 https://24tv.ua/en/pochemu_v_vsu_sus..._vojny_n817861 , but only at the very end of 2017 was the decision to start such a construction. This shows a sufficiently high level of inertia of the system, which was combed when the problem got really acute.
At the same time, one should not cherish the illusions that a deficit for certain types of ammunition will lead to a reduction in the shelling of the Donbas. Given the current intensity of hostilities, the APU is quite capable of maintaining the current level of bombardment for a long time and, if necessary, organizing the concentration of artillery fire for one-off actions. Problems are more likely to concern the operational level, when the transition of combat operations to a high-intensity stage can quickly reveal the shortage of production capacities and reserves of the BC for a part of heavy weapons. Needless to say, one should not cherish illusions about the fact that the expansion of the production of shells is planned in Ukraine for something other than for shelling cities and villages of the People's Republic of Donetsk and the People's Republic of Lugansk.