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Modern Wars & Warfare General discussion on war. Topics that are not covered in any of our sub-forums below. .

View Poll Results: Whose nuclear and missile/space programs are more of a threat to the US?
Iran 16 29.63%
North Korea 13 24.07%
Same Risk 6 11.11%
Depends on time frame being considered 10 18.52%
Don't know 2 3.70%
Don't care 7 12.96%
Voters: 54. You may not vote on this poll

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  #16  
Old 14 Apr 12, 13:13
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Iran is hotly pursing the creation of nuke weapons AND have threatened to wipe out US and our allies

Nork has created a nuke weapon and is trying to develop long-range delivery vehicles.

Both have constantly pushed the line and seem destined for a violent end.

Hard to say. They are both dangerous and unstable countries.
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  #17  
Old 14 Apr 12, 15:03
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From Der Spiegel - Iran Nuclear Talks: Six Powers To Pursue Selfish Interests In Istanbul


http://www.spiegel.de/international/...827385,00.html
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  #18  
Old 14 Apr 12, 19:42
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From Foreign Policy - This Week at War: Iran's North Korea Scenario

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...nario?page=0,1

Also from Foreign Policy - an article by Stephan Haggard entitled "Could North Korea have struck it rich"?

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...pisrc=obinsite
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  #19  
Old 14 Apr 12, 20:51
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Quote:
There is little argument, however, that Iran's leaders have taken steps that would give them the option of becoming a nuclear-armed power.
Iran has enriched uranium, although not yet of sufficient quantity or purity to fuel a bomb, and has built secret enrichment sites, which were acknowledged only when unmasked.
Iran has, in years past, worked on designing a nuclear warhead, the complicated package of electronics and explosives that would transform highly enriched uranium into a fission bomb.
And it is developing missiles that could in theory launch such a weapon at a target in enemy territory.
Intranet, from the very same news report you cited. My own experience coupled with what I judge to be this regime's view of its own interests inclines me to believe they are working on it.

To take the North Koreans as an example, since I never worked Iran: In an agreement with the Cllinton administration, North Korea agreed to halt its programs related to building a nuclear weapon in exchange for aid. The State Department view was that they had halted it. Many analysts, however, believed that they had merely halted the most visible of their programs, and had continued working on less visible, redundant programs. In the end, those analysts were proven correct (though the Nork bomb may have had a result similar to this latest missile test).

You can put that down to my gut feeling, which is like having an anus, but I would be willing to bet that many Iran Analysts are drawing similar judgments vis-a-vis Tehran.
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  #20  
Old 16 Apr 12, 21:48
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Iran's. They're closer to the bomb than DPRK. They also have a much better financial base to work from. Furthermore, they have some top rate people working in their nuclear programme.
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Old 16 Apr 12, 22:14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ogukuo72 View Post
Iran's. They're closer to the bomb than DPRK.
The DPRK have already detonated 2 nuclear bombs, and are reportedly preparing for a third.
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  #22  
Old 16 Apr 12, 23:23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ogukuo72 View Post
Iran's. They're closer to the bomb than DPRK. They also have a much better financial base to work from. Furthermore, they have some top rate people working in their nuclear programme.
lol

Quote:
Originally Posted by philiplaos View Post
The DPRK have already detonated 2 nuclear bombs, and are reportedly preparing for a third.
yep

Quote:
Originally Posted by lirelou View Post
...
Having the potential to build a nuclear bomb is not the same as "they are trying to build a nuclear bomb." All the relevant intelligence agencies have confirmed that Iran is NOT currently trying to build a nuclear bomb.

The quote about Iranian enrichment just means they have the potential to build one. Having the potential to do something does not mean they are actively doing something...because again, the intelligence agencies have already said Iran isn't actually trying to build a nuke, and they would be years away even if they were trying to build one.

Having secret military facilities does not prove they're building a nuke. Considering how a highly sophisticated virus has been targeting non-secret Iranian nuclear and enrichment facilities, I'm not surprised they've moved enrichment underground.
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  #23  
Old 17 Apr 12, 12:59
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Quote:
The quote about Iranian enrichment just means they have the potential to build one.
The theoretical potential, that is. It’s a quite a way – quite a long way - from enriched uranium to a small missile mounted nuclear system that is reliable and accurate. I wonder if Obama views Clinton’s 1990’s policy with North Korea as a failure, and seeks a definable ‘line’ for military action in subsequent cases with the view to creating an internationally accepted doctrine on proliferation that will last for a hundred years.

If this has truth, then its not so much about Iran as it is about the precedent Iran sets to proliferation. Nothing personal.
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  #24  
Old 17 Apr 12, 13:55
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Quote:
Having the potential to build a nuclear bomb is not the same as "they are trying to build a nuclear bomb." All the relevant intelligence agencies have confirmed that Iran is NOT currently trying to build a nuclear bomb.
You realise that this is completely false? No 'relevant' intelligence agencies have 'confirmed' anything; that is part of the problem. And yet, many things that the Iranians have done and even admit to doing are not entirely keeping with non-military programmes, especially those areas of missile testing and enrichment levels.
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  #25  
Old 18 Apr 12, 16:38
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Same risk - None. Canada could beat the Iranians to the bomb. No, scratch that, it's not even fair. QUEBEC could become a nuclear power quicker than the Iranians (LOL?! That's a pretty bizzare possibility); a lot of countries have 'Breakout' capability where you have all the industries necessary to start a weapon program (nuclear research, aerospace industries, respectable arms industry)
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  #26  
Old 19 Apr 12, 23:48
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I don't suppose he's a voting member here, but here's the judgement from the man who should have access to the best intelligence and analysis of the relative dangers of Iran and North Korea.

Quote:
Published: April 19, 2012 at 7:35 AM BRUSSELS, April 19 (UPI) -- U.S.

Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said North Korea is at the top of the list of things that keep him awake at night.

Panetta said the United States is "within an inch of war almost every day in that part of the world, and we just have to be very careful about what we say and what we do."

Read more: http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-Ne...#ixzz1sY5tgbbe
Philip
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  #27  
Old 24 Apr 12, 00:10
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The DPRK has only a limited number of opponents as potential long range missile targets, most of whom could wipe it out in retaliation, even without US help. They are well and truly stuck as no one actually needs them or anything they have. If North Korea vanished into the sea tomorrow, would anyone care?

The DRPK can threaten the RoK and Japan and, to a lesser extent, the US. The ROKs can handle the direct invasion threat themselves, while Japan and the US are working on missile defense technologies.

Iran sits in the middle of the one of the most unstable and sensitive regions in the world. With or without nukes, the ability to attack targets throughout the region with impunity just adds one more kick to an already busy ant hill. So while Iran represent less total military capability, they can place a much bigger target set at risk using more modest technologies.
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  #28  
Old 25 Apr 12, 13:30
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http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/w...-1226336953870

North Korea's military yesterday made an extraordinary threat of "special actions" soon to turn parts of the South Korean capital to ashes, accusing Seoul's conservative government of defaming its leadership.
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  #29  
Old 30 Apr 12, 03:11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lakechampainer View Post
Iran and North Korea - Whose nuclear and space/missile programs pose more of a threat to the US?

I include all factors in the question - the weapons themselves, the political situation in each country, the reactions of potential adversaries and allies, the populations and natural resources and industrial capabilities of the countries etc.
Any nuclear/missile program is a danger to the rest of the world irrespective of who the participant is,the mere fact that they are tinkering with the idea of working on such weapons whatever part of the globe they may be, presents a danger to the rest of us.They are not weapons as such, they are a means of turning the World into a waste land!~! lcm1
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  #30  
Old 30 Apr 12, 11:12
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I doubt either, since both have failed to show evidence that they are capable of achieving the distance needed to strike the US. They're highly dangerous to their local areas, as are any nuclear powers to their areas, but to the US specifically, these two don't pose much of a nuclear threat currently, as far as public information goes.
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