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  #106  
Old 29 Feb 12, 17:17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Metryll View Post
My point is that mud and winter hampered German above existing conditions. For an unknow reason, posters here want to attach weather effect only to front line units. It dont, all the logistical net is too hampered. With summer, early autumn condition, times would have been quite difficult for Russians. Have a look on a Typhoon map between October 1st and December 5th and note how much terrain German were able to cross with bad supply. Can one argue that advance would have been the same with a good one ? I dont
And look what did the 1rst panzer after Kalinin : nothing. There the germans are in defence already in end october. What did Guderian when roads are frozen? Nothing, he's even unable to cut Tula supply road.
Weather was a factor, among any others.
Few km more in the east or not, the germans were unable to acheive their goal, unable to hold the ground.
Over-extended, that's all.
  #107  
Old 29 Feb 12, 18:13
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Originally Posted by Destroyer25 View Post
On the contrary, Forcyzk doesn't create any illusions regarding the Red Army. He states that they fought tooth and nail for every inch of ground, but were generally unsuccessful. Which is true. The Red Army simply wasn't able to prevent the Germans from advancing. Most of Germany's checks during Operation Typhoon were due to logistical factors rather than stiff resistance from the Red Army. Whenever the Germans encountered significant resistance they normally had no trouble breaking through once they had enough fuel and ammo.
There may be some misunderstanding or preconceptions about the scale of the fighting. If you consult the tables I posted, the opposing strengths were not that great given the very long frontage. Neither the Red Army nor the Wehrmacht were thick on the ground or rich in tanks, so a dozen Matildas showing up locally was a big deal. Likewise, Germans tanks were able to get behind Soviet lines and wreak havoc.

Again, it speaks to scale. The Battle for Moscow was really hundreds of little battles. The front line moved back and forth depending on local superiority, but never very far. The Wehrmacht was at a woeful disadvantage, basically stalled and left hung out to dry. The Red Army was likewise depleted, but time was on their side and they were eventually able to rally and beat the Germans back.

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  #108  
Old 29 Feb 12, 18:52
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Originally Posted by grosnain View Post
And look what did the 1rst panzer after Kalinin : nothing. There the germans are in defence already in end october. What did Guderian when roads are frozen? Nothing, he's even unable to cut Tula supply road.
Weather was a factor, among any others.
Few km more in the east or not, the germans were unable to acheive their goal, unable to hold the ground.
Over-extended, that's all.
Ok, let's have a last try.

Let's assume that distance between a rail station and the front line is 100km, a division needs for 200t of supply. A truck carry 2t, run a 20 km/h.
It will take a day for 100 trucks to carry the needed supply and get back to the rail station.

Now what happen if truck speed is simply halved ? It took two days for full replenishment or division fight under supplied.

The numbers are of course irrealistic but the mechanism is exactly what happen when weather, especially mud happen. If the tranpsort pool dont increase, units have either to wait or lose combat effectiveness.

It's not a matter if German had achieved their goal, but if Germans could have caused more concern to Russians while trying to complete successfully their operation.
  #109  
Old 29 Feb 12, 19:02
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Originally Posted by Destroyer25 View Post
For the last time, THE WEATHER DURING OPERATION TYPHOON WAS NOT DECISIVE. THE WORST OF THE WEATHER ARRIVED AFTER TYPHOON FAILED. Thus, the trucks were not that hampered by bad weather, but rather the distance they had to travel due to the railheads not being moved up fast enough to keep pace with offensive operations, and their simply inadequacy to begin with.
Is it so hard to understand that even with adequate railroad supply there was simply not enough transports assets ? How one can argue that mud had not effect on transports ? It's probably the most non sensical assertion I've read for years in ACG.
  #110  
Old 29 Feb 12, 19:11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Metryll View Post
Is it so hard to understand that even with adequate railroad supply there was simply not enough transports assets?
The lack of transport assets wouldn't have mattered if the rail system was adequate to begin with and had the advancement of the railheads been able to keep pace with the offensives.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Metryll View Post
How one can argue that mud had not effect on transports ? It's probably the most non sensical assertion I've read for years in ACG.
It had an effect, but not the kind you think it did. The impact of the mud and snow has been blown completely out of proportion. It's a myth created by Guderian and other field commanders. The data simply does not support that conclusion. Weather data recorded by the Wehrmacht and RKKA shows that the weather during Typhoon was little more than a small nuisance most of the time, and only a moderately serious problem in a few localized areas for a short amount of time. The worst of the weather arrived after December 5th.
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  #111  
Old 29 Feb 12, 19:22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ljadw View Post
???????
In the summer of 1941,the Germans failed,although there was no mud
In the summer of 1942,the germans failed,although there was no mud
In the autumn of 1941,the Germans failed,with mud
Conclusion :mud was not a factor in the German failure .
You have to explain and to prove why the Germans could do better in october 1941,if the weather was better .And,don't tell me the old story that with better weather,they could have more supplies,because this is not true .
Without bitter fighting,the Ostheer needed daily 75 trains (=75 trains arriving at the railheads),this did not happen(only 60 in october)and this was the main cause of the supply problems,why were there only 60 in october ? Not because of the mud :there was no mud in Germany .The following point was that there were not enough trucks to transport the supplies from the railheads to the advancing troops.Following point was that the Ostheer already was very weaken at the start of Typhoon :most divisions had a fighting capacity of 50 %.And last point :there still was an unbeaten Sovet army to block the Germans .NOTHING of all this (shortages of trains,trucks,men,an unbeaten Soviet army) was caused by the mud,and,if there was no mud ,these problems would last .
Conclusion :the mud was irrelevant for the failure of Typhoon .
Off course,if you have sources that are proving that with good weather,more trains would leave from Germany,that ther would be more trucks,that the divisions would have a bigger fighting capacity,that there would be less Soviets waiting,be my guest and enlight us .
Logistic.
  #112  
Old 29 Feb 12, 19:33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Destroyer25 View Post
The lack of transport assets wouldn't have mattered if the rail system was adequate to begin with and had the advancement of the railheads been able to keep pace with the offensives.
And how the supply is supposed to go from the rail station to the combat unit. Jumping on its little legs ?

Quote:
It had an effect, but not the kind you think it did. The impact of the mud and snow has been blown completely out of proportion. It's a myth created by Guderian and other field commanders. The data simply does not support that conclusion. Weather data recorded by the Wehrmacht and RKKA shows that the weather during Typhoon was little more than a small nuisance most of the time, and only a moderately serious problem in a few localized areas for a short amount of time. The worst of the weather arrived after December 5th.
After December 5th it was the winter. Before it's the mud :

"British attempts to renew the offensive over the course of the next few days were severely hampered by the onset of heavy rains, the heaviest in 30 years, which churned the Flanders lowland soil into a thick muddy swamp. Tanks found themselves immobile, stuck fast in the mud. Similarly the infantry found their mobility severely limited. Ironically the very force of the preliminary bombardment had itself destroyed drainage systems, exacerbating the problem. In addition, the artillery shells that had rained down in the days prior to the attack's launch had peppered the very ground that needed to be traversed by the advancing Allied forces"

http://www.firstworldwar.com/battles/ypres3.htm

This time different front, different era, but still the same result...
  #113  
Old 29 Feb 12, 20:45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Metryll View Post
And how the supply is supposed to go from the rail station to the combat unit. Jumping on its little legs ?
No, trucks, but Germany wouldn't have needed more trucks had the railways been able to deliver the supplies right behind the front line.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Metryll View Post
After December 5th it was the winter. Before it's the mud :

"British attempts to renew the offensive over the course of the next few days were severely hampered by the onset of heavy rains, the heaviest in 30 years, which churned the Flanders lowland soil into a thick muddy swamp. Tanks found themselves immobile, stuck fast in the mud. Similarly the infantry found their mobility severely limited. Ironically the very force of the preliminary bombardment had itself destroyed drainage systems, exacerbating the problem. In addition, the artillery shells that had rained down in the days prior to the attack's launch had peppered the very ground that needed to be traversed by the advancing Allied forces"

http://www.firstworldwar.com/battles/ypres3.htm

This time different front, different era, but still the same result...
The amount of mud in AGC's AO has always been greatly exaggerated. The mud was localized and never lasted very long. All the hard facts prove that. Just because Guderian said there was mud did not mean that there was mud everywhere in ACG's AO.
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  #114  
Old 01 Mar 12, 02:05
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There was a big shortage of trucks,and,this was not caused by the mud .The logistic problems (which did NOT cause the failure of Typhoon) were not caused by the mud .
Typhoon failed because of the general situation of the Ostheer (after a campaign of 100 days,it was exhausted) and,because the Red Army Front defending Moscow never collapsed:it still was waiting for the advancing Germans .
After the failure to defeat the Red Army defending Moscow,the chances for Typhoon to succeed were very small:a few %,if there was no mud ,these chances hardly would increase .
  #115  
Old 01 Mar 12, 02:12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Metryll View Post
Ok, let's have a last try.

Let's assume that distance between a rail station and the front line is 100km, a division needs for 200t of supply. A truck carry 2t, run a 20 km/h.
It will take a day for 100 trucks to carry the needed supply and get back to the rail station.

Now what happen if truck speed is simply halved ? It took two days for full replenishment or division fight under supplied.

The numbers are of course irrealistic but the mechanism is exactly what happen when weather, especially mud happen. If the tranpsort pool dont increase, units have either to wait or lose combat effectiveness.

It's not a matter if German had achieved their goal, but if Germans could have caused more concern to Russians while trying to complete successfully their operation.
Wrong argument :the truck speed is not relevant ,the possibility of the division beying supplied depends 1) on the number of supplies available on the railway station 2) on the number of trucks available ,and 1) and 2) totally are independant from the weather .
Btw:if the mud was hindering the Germans,it also was hindering the Soviets:same mechanism
  #116  
Old 01 Mar 12, 02:21
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Originally Posted by Metryll View Post
And how the supply is supposed to go from the rail station to the combat unit. Jumping on its little legs ?



After December 5th it was the winter. Before it's the mud :

"British attempts to renew the offensive over the course of the next few days were severely hampered by the onset of heavy rains, the heaviest in 30 years, which churned the Flanders lowland soil into a thick muddy swamp. Tanks found themselves immobile, stuck fast in the mud. Similarly the infantry found their mobility severely limited. Ironically the very force of the preliminary bombardment had itself destroyed drainage systems, exacerbating the problem. In addition, the artillery shells that had rained down in the days prior to the attack's launch had peppered the very ground that needed to be traversed by the advancing Allied forces"

http://www.firstworldwar.com/battles/ypres3.htm

This time different front, different era, but still the same result...
The weather also was hampering the Germans
Here also ,it is the same situation as during Typhoon :the initial offensive failed (British attempts to RENEW the offensive),and with this,the dies were cast,it was over:no more chances to succeed:using the mud as explanation,is inventing an excuse .
  #117  
Old 01 Mar 12, 02:24
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While it is fashionable to blame and not blame the weather, it does have an effect. In 1941, both the RKKA and the Wehrmacht were tied to the horse for most local transport requirements. The advancing Axis forces had the problem during the autumn rasputitsa of moving on roads that were increasingly churned up and also lacked vehicles designed for such conditions. The RKKA was retreating over these same roads but had the advantage of local knowledge, vehicles adapted to the conditions (even if they were only carts) and first go on the road. That most of the roads were unpaved should have alerted somebody in OKW that movement would get difficult the moment there was a heavy downpour.

The next consideration about weather is that it affects flying. As the LW advanced they started from concrete runways and moved to grass strips, which turned into quagmires in heavy rain. As the LW had almost total air control for most of Barbarossa, anything which prevented them from providing ground support was a bonus for the RKKA. Fog and blizzards, apart from masking targets, also reduce air operations as most pilots like to see the ground when they're landing.
  #118  
Old 01 Mar 12, 05:04
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Destroyer25 View Post
No, trucks, but Germany wouldn't have needed more trucks had the railways been able to deliver the supplies right behind the front line.
Right behind the front line ? It's a mind vision. Soviet rail lenght was of 160.000 for 21 millons of kmē. In 1914, French length was of 59.000 for 537.000 kmē. How Germans could have done with an average 20 times lower density what Allied could not in WWI ?

Quote:
The amount of mud in AGC's AO has always been greatly exaggerated. The mud was localized and never lasted very long. All the hard facts prove that. Just because Guderian said there was mud did not mean that there was mud everywhere in ACG's AO.
Then check about real average Russian data. There is as much wet days in July than in October but the average sun hours drop from 8h to 2.5. With an average humidity of 85%, water as simply not the time to evaporate between two precipitations and ground become satured quite quickly. There was mud everywhere columns of vehicles used non paved road, German or Russian.
  #119  
Old 01 Mar 12, 05:07
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Originally Posted by ljadw View Post
Without bitter fighting,the Ostheer needed daily 75 trains (=75 trains arriving at the railheads),this did not happen(only 60 in october)and this was the main cause of the supply problems,why were there only 60 in october ? Not because of the mud :there was no mud in Germany

Conclusion :the mud was irrelevant for the failure of Typhoon .
Off course,if you have sources that are proving that with good weather,more trains would leave from Germany,that ther would be more trucks,that the divisions would have a bigger fighting capacity,that there would be less Soviets waiting,be my guest and enlight us .
With good weather and proper roads maybe those 60 trains would have been enough. Because mud and snow increases a vehicle's consumption of fuel by up to 25%, hence a bigger need for supplies.
  #120  
Old 01 Mar 12, 05:12
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Originally Posted by ljadw View Post
Wrong argument :the truck speed is not relevant ,the possibility of the division beying supplied depends 1) on the number of supplies available on the railway station 2) on the number of trucks available ,and 1) and 2) totally are independant from the weather .
Btw:if the mud was hindering the Germans,it also was hindering the Soviets:same mechanism
I'll not answer all of your posts as all miss the point. Between t and t+1, if 2) remain constant, amount of supply coming from 1) will decrease if trucks speed is reduced. I'm affraid you'll continue to not grasp the quite simple concept of rotations frequency over a given time span...
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