"Gingrich and Romney Are 'Unelectable'? So Is Obama."

[The Doctor]

Gingrich and Romney Are "Unelectable"? So Is Obama.

By Sean Trende - January 31, 2012

As the Republican primary slogs forward, supporters of Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney are arguing that the other candidate is "unelectable." The reasoning regarding Gingrich tends to revolve around his horrendous favorability ratings, and a propensity for self-destruction. The rationale regarding Romney is more varied, and is well enunciated by Quin Hillyer and John Hawkins. Last Wednesday, Erick Erickson at RedState -- no Romney fan -- threw up his hands and declared both leading candidates unelectable.

I personally think these claims are overblown. After all, Christine O’Donnell managed to lose the independent vote in Delaware by only three points, and whatever else you may say about Gingrich, he wouldn’t have to begin his general election campaign insisting that he’s not a witch.

[...]

(U)nder current conditions, Obama is every bit as unelectable as the Republicans supposedly are. Consider:

1) Obama is still unpopular.

[...]

Obama probably needs to be pretty close to 50 percent approval on Election Day to secure re-election. (In 2004, George W. Bush was at 49.7 percent in the RCP Average on Election Day.)

As of this writing, Obama’s job approval in the RCP Average is 46.8 percent.

[...]

2) The economy is still a millstone. As I noted above, there has been some good economic news lately. But the flip side of this is that we’ve heard it before: Late 2010 and early 2011 were filled with bullish reports on the economy, as was early 2010 (remember “Recovery Summer”?).

The bigger problem for the president is that things are improving too slowly for him to really reap the benefits. Take a look at the following chart, supplied by Jay Cost, which shows per capita real disposable income (a metric commonly used by political scientists in their models) from the start of each president’s term up to his re-election effort (LBJ/Kennedy are combined, as is Ford with Nixon’s second term).



Obama looks quite a bit more like Presidents Ford, Carter and Bush 41 than he does the presidents who have been re-elected.

[...]

3) The president’s domestic agenda is unpopular. Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak, the DNC’s vice chairman, recently stated that Obama’s national message “will be that he passed the health-care law, single-handedly saved the car industry, ended the wars and has had 22 months of job growth.”

Selling this will be a very difficult task. Almost two years after the health care law passed, only 37.6 percent of Americans are in favor of it...

[...]

As for the auto bailout, we haven’t had much in the way of recent polling, although close to 60 percent of Americans fairly consistently opposed the bailouts when they were pending before Congress...

[...]

As for the stimulus, Obama’s other major domestic achievement, in January 2010, 75 percent of Americans said they believed a majority or more of stimulus funds were wasted.

[...]

The only clear winner here for the president is ending the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The problem is, most voters don’t care that much. In the past year, I couldn’t find a single poll where more than 9 percent of adults named the wars as their top priority...

[...]

4) Head-to-head polling. This is of limited utility this far out, but it is worth a brief mention. Obama leads Romney by only a 47.5-45.1 margin in the RCP Average. His lead against Gingrich is large, but he’s still only at 51.9 percent, about where his approval rating maxed out after bin Laden was killed.

State polling has been sparse, but let’s consider the following RCP Averages: Romney leads 48.8-42 in New Hampshire; 45.3-45 in Florida (all very recent polling); and 46.6-42.8 in Virginia. Add in the McCain states plus Indiana, and that’s 237 electoral votes -- 33 shy of a victory. The president leads, but is at or below 47 percent, in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, North Carolina, Colorado, and Nevada. That’s a dangerous place for any incumbent.

[...]

5) We’ve heard it before. Finally, most of the arguments for why the president is electable should sound vaguely familiar. They were mostly made in 2010 and offered as reasons why the election wouldn’t be so bad for the Democrats.

[...]

Conclusion

So what happens? Arguably, we’ve never seen a situation like this before, when an unelectable incumbent draws an unelectable opponent.

[...]

I wouldn’t put Obama in Carter/Hoover territory, unless Europe collapses. But then again, Republicans don’t need to reduce his share of the vote to 40 percent. Can “unelectable” Romney or even Gingrich hold him to, say, 48 or 49 percent? I wouldn’t say they will, but there’s plenty of evidence that suggests they can.

RCP

The disposable income chart tells the same story as GDP growth...

[Cheetah772]

Be careful with your analysis.

We all thought Obama was unelectable way back in 2008. But when the markets crashed in September, McCain lost his opportunity to win by stating foolishly that the fundamentals of economy are sound. Not only that, McCain appeared stupid when asking questions at the summit at White House while Obama looked calm and even presidential. After that, Obama became electable. Obama rode on the market crash and presented himself as the best person to bring Hope and Change to Washington.

This is just from my memory of what happened in 2008. I honestly believed that we could beat Obama easily, but it turns out I was wrong. You could be wrong on this one. If Romney wins, then all bets are off, Obama will have his second term.

Dan

[Mountain Man]

Originally Posted by Cheetah772

Be careful with your analysis.

We all thought Obama was unelectable way back in 2008. But when the markets crashed in September, McCain lost his opportunity to win by stating foolishly that the fundamentals of economy are sound. Not only that, McCain appeared stupid when asking questions at the summit at White House while Obama looked calm and even presidential. After that, Obama became electable. Obama rode on the market crash and presented himself as the best person to bring Hope and Change to Washington.

This is just from my memory of what happened in 2008. I honestly believed that we could beat Obama easily, but it turns out I was wrong. You could be wrong on this one. If Romney wins, then all bets are off, Obama will have his second term.

Dan

I disagree. All Romney has to do is keep repeating "I AM NOT OBAMA!"

An awful lot of voters will not be voting for Romney, but against the Great Liar. I know I will.

[drivin-fool]

Just give me someone worth voting for, because the current crop of GOP candidate suck.

[Carl Schwamberg]

The title makes me think of a three way split in the national election and Congress deadlocked in casting the Electoral College votes. Having slept through or been absent from the reading of the Constitution last year the August legislators are stalled arguing over procedure. The Supreme Court is split & unable to arbitrate as it discovers Justice Thomas has been dead for several weeks or months. "He never said anything anyway." said the Courts Chief Justice "Who knew?"

[Grognard Gunny]

Originally Posted by Mountain Man

I disagree. All Romney has to do is keep repeating "I AM NOT OBAMA!"

An awful lot of voters will not be voting for Romney, but against the Great Liar. I know I will.

Amen!

Unfortunately, Romney is NOT the one who will lead us, at the very least, parallel (as against our current directly toward) the yawning fiscal and financial collapse of the Government I still see as the first, foremost and primary "concern" we are facing in this Country.

Be advised that the Dollar is the creation of the Government. As the Government goes, so goes the Dollar. Not to mention the economy of the entire Country, and a good portion of the planet, to boot!

For you "weak dollar" adherents, go right ahead, print up all the "money" you need. Inflation alone will kill our economy just as assuredly as defaulting on our debt will.

.... and when the Government goes broke, who, pray tell, will feed, clothe and house those MASSES of Government dependents?

GG

[KICK]

Originally Posted by Mountain Man

I disagree. All Romney has to do is keep repeating "I AM NOT OBAMA!"

An awful lot of voters will not be voting for Romney, but against the Great Liar. I know I will.

and shout as loudly and as often as possible

ARE YOU BETTER OFF TODAY THAN YOU WERE FOUR YEARS AGO

[KICK]

Doc, didya know I have met 3 White people in the last week that are for Obama..

the masses are asses LOL

[The Doctor]

Originally Posted by KICK

Doc, didya know I have met 3 White people in the last week that are for Obama..

the masses are asses LOL

Marx, Lenin and Stalin?

[Ogukuo72]

I was a McCain supporter four years ago, but now I understand that he put his vanity before the good of the public in his refusal to do everything in his power to win, thinking only of his honor. At least it seems neither Romney nor Gingrich will indulge in the luxury of this delusion.

It's going to be a tough fight. Obama is going to be well funded. The media is going to be in his pocket. Whoever the GOP nominee is will have to fight tough, fight dirty, and do everything in their power to tear Obama down.

Romney showed a bit of street fighter spirit in Florida against Gingrich. He had better be even more aggressive against Obama.

[Massena]

Don't hold your breath on this one. Obama wasn't supposed to win the last time, either...

Sincerely,
M

[semperpietas]

Originally Posted by Massena

Don't hold your breath on this one. Obama wasn't supposed to win the last time, either...

Sincerely,
M

It helped that economy tanked on the incumbent's watch which pushed Obama to the WH.

Since Obama has ignored his mandate to improve the economy, he is now the incumbent with the bad economy.

[The Doctor]

Originally Posted by semperpietas

It helped that economy tanked on the incumbent's watch which pushed Obama to the WH.

Since Obama has ignored his mandate to improve the economy, he is now the incumbent with the bad economy.

But, but, but... It's Bush's fault that Obama is the incumbent!

[steelpot]

Originally Posted by Ogukuo72

I was a McCain supporter four years ago, but now I understand that he put his vanity before the good of the public in his refusal to do everything in his power to win, thinking only of his honor. At least it seems neither Romney nor Gingrich will indulge in the luxury of this delusion.

It's going to be a tough fight. Obama is going to be well funded. The media is going to be in his pocket. Whoever the GOP nominee is will have to fight tough, fight dirty, and do everything in their power to tear Obama down.

Romney showed a bit of street fighter spirit in Florida against Gingrich. He had better be even more aggressive against Obama.

I couldn't agree more!!

[Naffenea]

Can we please stop blaming Bush for Obama? Everyone can plainly see it's Clinton's fault.