HistoryNet.com RSS
ArmchairGeneral.com RSS

HistoryNet.com Articles
America's Civil War
American History
Aviation History
British Heritage
Civil War Times
MHQ
Military History
Vietnam
Wild West
World War II

ACG Online
ACG Magazine
Stuff We Like
War College
History News
Tactics 101
Carlo D'Este
Books

ACG Gaming
Boardgames
PC Game Reviews

ACG Network
Contact Us
Our Newsletter
Meet Our Staff
Advertise With Us

Sites We Support
HistoryNet.com
StreamHistory.com
Once A Marine
The Art of Battle
Game Squad
Mil. History Podcast
Russian Army - WW2
Achtung Panzer!
Mil History Online

Go Back   Armchair General and HistoryNet >> The Best Forums in History > Happening Now > Politics Central

Notices and Announcements

Politics Central An archive of discussions of a political nature that took place here.

 
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 31 Jan 12, 15:39
The Doctor's Avatar
The Doctor The Doctor is online now
General of the Forums
United_States
Distinguished Service Award ACG Ten Year Service Award 5 Year Service Ribbon Summer Campaign 
Greatest Westerns Campaign Greatest Spy Movies Campaign 
 
Real Name: Dave
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Dallas, Texas
Posts: 38,955
The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+] The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+] The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+] The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+] The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+] The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+] The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+]
The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+] The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+] The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+] The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+] The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+] The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+] The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+] The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+] The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+] The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+] The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+]
"Gingrich and Romney Are 'Unelectable'? So Is Obama."

Quote:
Gingrich and Romney Are "Unelectable"? So Is Obama.

By Sean Trende - January 31, 2012

As the Republican primary slogs forward, supporters of Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney are arguing that the other candidate is "unelectable." The reasoning regarding Gingrich tends to revolve around his horrendous favorability ratings, and a propensity for self-destruction. The rationale regarding Romney is more varied, and is well enunciated by Quin Hillyer and John Hawkins. Last Wednesday, Erick Erickson at RedState -- no Romney fan -- threw up his hands and declared both leading candidates unelectable.

I personally think these claims are overblown. After all, Christine O’Donnell managed to lose the independent vote in Delaware by only three points, and whatever else you may say about Gingrich, he wouldn’t have to begin his general election campaign insisting that he’s not a witch.

[...]

(U)nder current conditions, Obama is every bit as unelectable as the Republicans supposedly are. Consider:

1) Obama is still unpopular.

[...]

Obama probably needs to be pretty close to 50 percent approval on Election Day to secure re-election. (In 2004, George W. Bush was at 49.7 percent in the RCP Average on Election Day.)

As of this writing, Obama’s job approval in the RCP Average is 46.8 percent.

[...]

2) The economy is still a millstone. As I noted above, there has been some good economic news lately. But the flip side of this is that we’ve heard it before: Late 2010 and early 2011 were filled with bullish reports on the economy, as was early 2010 (remember “Recovery Summer”?).

The bigger problem for the president is that things are improving too slowly for him to really reap the benefits. Take a look at the following chart, supplied by Jay Cost, which shows per capita real disposable income (a metric commonly used by political scientists in their models) from the start of each president’s term up to his re-election effort (LBJ/Kennedy are combined, as is Ford with Nixon’s second term).



Obama looks quite a bit more like Presidents Ford, Carter and Bush 41 than he does the presidents who have been re-elected.

[...]

3) The president’s domestic agenda is unpopular. Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak, the DNC’s vice chairman, recently stated that Obama’s national message “will be that he passed the health-care law, single-handedly saved the car industry, ended the wars and has had 22 months of job growth.”

Selling this will be a very difficult task. Almost two years after the health care law passed, only 37.6 percent of Americans are in favor of it...

[...]

As for the auto bailout, we haven’t had much in the way of recent polling, although close to 60 percent of Americans fairly consistently opposed the bailouts when they were pending before Congress...

[...]

As for the stimulus, Obama’s other major domestic achievement, in January 2010, 75 percent of Americans said they believed a majority or more of stimulus funds were wasted.

[...]

The only clear winner here for the president is ending the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The problem is, most voters don’t care that much. In the past year, I couldn’t find a single poll where more than 9 percent of adults named the wars as their top priority...

[...]

4) Head-to-head polling. This is of limited utility this far out, but it is worth a brief mention. Obama leads Romney by only a 47.5-45.1 margin in the RCP Average. His lead against Gingrich is large, but he’s still only at 51.9 percent, about where his approval rating maxed out after bin Laden was killed.

State polling has been sparse, but let’s consider the following RCP Averages: Romney leads 48.8-42 in New Hampshire; 45.3-45 in Florida (all very recent polling); and 46.6-42.8 in Virginia. Add in the McCain states plus Indiana, and that’s 237 electoral votes -- 33 shy of a victory. The president leads, but is at or below 47 percent, in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, North Carolina, Colorado, and Nevada. That’s a dangerous place for any incumbent.

[...]

5) We’ve heard it before. Finally, most of the arguments for why the president is electable should sound vaguely familiar. They were mostly made in 2010 and offered as reasons why the election wouldn’t be so bad for the Democrats.

[...]

Conclusion

So what happens? Arguably, we’ve never seen a situation like this before, when an unelectable incumbent draws an unelectable opponent.

[...]

I wouldn’t put Obama in Carter/Hoover territory, unless Europe collapses. But then again, Republicans don’t need to reduce his share of the vote to 40 percent. Can “unelectable” Romney or even Gingrich hold him to, say, 48 or 49 percent? I wouldn’t say they will, but there’s plenty of evidence that suggests they can.

RCP
The disposable income chart tells the same story as GDP growth...



Facebook Connect and Magazine Promotions

World War II Magazine
$26.95

Armchair General Magazine
$26.95
Military History Magazine
$26.95
  #2  
Old 31 Jan 12, 18:02
Cheetah772's Avatar
Cheetah772 Cheetah772 is offline
General of the Forums
United_States
ACG Ten Year Service Award 5 Year Service Ribbon March Offensive 
 
Real Name: Dan
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Silver Spring, Maryland
Posts: 6,976
Cheetah772 is simply cracking [600]
Cheetah772 is simply cracking [600] Cheetah772 is simply cracking [600] Cheetah772 is simply cracking [600] Cheetah772 is simply cracking [600] Cheetah772 is simply cracking [600] Cheetah772 is simply cracking [600] Cheetah772 is simply cracking [600] Cheetah772 is simply cracking [600] Cheetah772 is simply cracking [600] Cheetah772 is simply cracking [600] Cheetah772 is simply cracking [600]
Be careful with your analysis.

We all thought Obama was unelectable way back in 2008. But when the markets crashed in September, McCain lost his opportunity to win by stating foolishly that the fundamentals of economy are sound. Not only that, McCain appeared stupid when asking questions at the summit at White House while Obama looked calm and even presidential. After that, Obama became electable. Obama rode on the market crash and presented himself as the best person to bring Hope and Change to Washington.

This is just from my memory of what happened in 2008. I honestly believed that we could beat Obama easily, but it turns out I was wrong. You could be wrong on this one. If Romney wins, then all bets are off, Obama will have his second term.

Dan
__________________
Obama, "We don't have a strategy." (Press conference, 8/28/14)

So much for his intellectual superiority.

God help all of us.
  #3  
Old 31 Jan 12, 18:11
Mountain Man's Avatar
Mountain Man Mountain Man is offline
General of the Forums
United_States
ACG Ten Year Service Award 5 Year Service Ribbon Greatest Spy Movies Campaign Best Pin-Up Of World War II 
Most Significant/Influential Tank Campaign 
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Colorado Rocky Mts, USA
Posts: 54,516
Mountain Man has disabled reputation
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cheetah772 View Post
Be careful with your analysis.

We all thought Obama was unelectable way back in 2008. But when the markets crashed in September, McCain lost his opportunity to win by stating foolishly that the fundamentals of economy are sound. Not only that, McCain appeared stupid when asking questions at the summit at White House while Obama looked calm and even presidential. After that, Obama became electable. Obama rode on the market crash and presented himself as the best person to bring Hope and Change to Washington.

This is just from my memory of what happened in 2008. I honestly believed that we could beat Obama easily, but it turns out I was wrong. You could be wrong on this one. If Romney wins, then all bets are off, Obama will have his second term.

Dan
I disagree. All Romney has to do is keep repeating "I AM NOT OBAMA!"

An awful lot of voters will not be voting for Romney, but against the Great Liar. I know I will.
__________________
Ipso custodes, custodiet est?"
"Who watches the watchers"\?"
  #4  
Old 31 Jan 12, 19:31
drivin-fool's Avatar
drivin-fool drivin-fool is offline
Lieutenant Colonel
United_States
Best Pin-Up Of World War II 
 
Real Name: Danny
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Hampton Roads,VA
Posts: 1,282
drivin-fool has demonstrated strength of character [100] drivin-fool has demonstrated strength of character [100] drivin-fool has demonstrated strength of character [100] drivin-fool has demonstrated strength of character [100] drivin-fool has demonstrated strength of character [100] drivin-fool has demonstrated strength of character [100] drivin-fool has demonstrated strength of character [100] drivin-fool has demonstrated strength of character [100]
Just give me someone worth voting for, because the current crop of GOP candidate suck.
__________________
Somedays you're the windshield, and somedays you're the bug.

January 20, 2013 the Beginning of a new ERROR...
  #5  
Old 31 Jan 12, 20:17
Carl Schwamberg's Avatar
Carl Schwamberg Carl Schwamberg is offline
General of the Forums
United_States
5 Year Service Ribbon 
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Indiana
Posts: 9,859
Carl Schwamberg is a glorious beacon of light [700]
Carl Schwamberg is a glorious beacon of light [700] Carl Schwamberg is a glorious beacon of light [700] Carl Schwamberg is a glorious beacon of light [700] Carl Schwamberg is a glorious beacon of light [700] Carl Schwamberg is a glorious beacon of light [700] Carl Schwamberg is a glorious beacon of light [700] Carl Schwamberg is a glorious beacon of light [700] Carl Schwamberg is a glorious beacon of light [700] Carl Schwamberg is a glorious beacon of light [700] Carl Schwamberg is a glorious beacon of light [700] Carl Schwamberg is a glorious beacon of light [700] Carl Schwamberg is a glorious beacon of light [700] Carl Schwamberg is a glorious beacon of light [700] Carl Schwamberg is a glorious beacon of light [700]
The title makes me think of a three way split in the national election and Congress deadlocked in casting the Electoral College votes. Having slept through or been absent from the reading of the Constitution last year the August legislators are stalled arguing over procedure. The Supreme Court is split & unable to arbitrate as it discovers Justice Thomas has been dead for several weeks or months. "He never said anything anyway." said the Courts Chief Justice "Who knew?"
  #6  
Old 01 Feb 12, 00:13
Grognard Gunny's Avatar
Grognard Gunny Grognard Gunny is offline
General of the Forums
United_States
5 Year Service Ribbon 
 
Real Name: Don
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: North Carolina
Posts: 11,064
Grognard Gunny is a pillar of the community [1100] Grognard Gunny is a pillar of the community [1100]
Grognard Gunny is a pillar of the community [1100] Grognard Gunny is a pillar of the community [1100] Grognard Gunny is a pillar of the community [1100] Grognard Gunny is a pillar of the community [1100] Grognard Gunny is a pillar of the community [1100] Grognard Gunny is a pillar of the community [1100] Grognard Gunny is a pillar of the community [1100] Grognard Gunny is a pillar of the community [1100] Grognard Gunny is a pillar of the community [1100] Grognard Gunny is a pillar of the community [1100] Grognard Gunny is a pillar of the community [1100] Grognard Gunny is a pillar of the community [1100] Grognard Gunny is a pillar of the community [1100] Grognard Gunny is a pillar of the community [1100]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mountain Man View Post
I disagree. All Romney has to do is keep repeating "I AM NOT OBAMA!"

An awful lot of voters will not be voting for Romney, but against the Great Liar. I know I will.
Amen!

Unfortunately, Romney is NOT the one who will lead us, at the very least, parallel (as against our current directly toward) the yawning fiscal and financial collapse of the Government I still see as the first, foremost and primary "concern" we are facing in this Country.

Be advised that the Dollar is the creation of the Government. As the Government goes, so goes the Dollar. Not to mention the economy of the entire Country, and a good portion of the planet, to boot!

For you "weak dollar" adherents, go right ahead, print up all the "money" you need. Inflation alone will kill our economy just as assuredly as defaulting on our debt will.

.... and when the Government goes broke, who, pray tell, will feed, clothe and house those MASSES of Government dependents?

GG
__________________
"The will of a section rooted in self interest, should not outweigh the vital interests of a whole people." -Joshua Lawrence Chamberlain-

"Fanatics of any sort are dangerous." -GG-
  #7  
Old 01 Feb 12, 04:24
KICK's Avatar
KICK KICK is offline
General of the Forums
Pirate
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Barron Colliers Land
Posts: 8,710
KICK is a jewel in the rough [500]
KICK is a jewel in the rough [500] KICK is a jewel in the rough [500] KICK is a jewel in the rough [500] KICK is a jewel in the rough [500] KICK is a jewel in the rough [500] KICK is a jewel in the rough [500] KICK is a jewel in the rough [500]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mountain Man View Post
I disagree. All Romney has to do is keep repeating "I AM NOT OBAMA!"

An awful lot of voters will not be voting for Romney, but against the Great Liar. I know I will.

and shout as loudly and as often as possible

ARE YOU BETTER OFF TODAY THAN YOU WERE FOUR YEARS AGO
  #8  
Old 01 Feb 12, 04:26
KICK's Avatar
KICK KICK is offline
General of the Forums
Pirate
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Barron Colliers Land
Posts: 8,710
KICK is a jewel in the rough [500]
KICK is a jewel in the rough [500] KICK is a jewel in the rough [500] KICK is a jewel in the rough [500] KICK is a jewel in the rough [500] KICK is a jewel in the rough [500] KICK is a jewel in the rough [500] KICK is a jewel in the rough [500]
Doc, didya know I have met 3 White people in the last week that are for Obama..

the masses are asses LOL
  #9  
Old 01 Feb 12, 07:18
The Doctor's Avatar
The Doctor The Doctor is online now
General of the Forums
United_States
Distinguished Service Award ACG Ten Year Service Award 5 Year Service Ribbon Summer Campaign 
Greatest Westerns Campaign Greatest Spy Movies Campaign 
 
Real Name: Dave
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Dallas, Texas
Posts: 38,955
The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+] The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+] The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+] The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+] The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+] The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+] The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+]
The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+] The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+] The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+] The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+] The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+] The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+] The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+] The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+] The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+] The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+] The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+]
Quote:
Originally Posted by KICK View Post
Doc, didya know I have met 3 White people in the last week that are for Obama..

the masses are asses LOL
Marx, Lenin and Stalin?
  #10  
Old 01 Feb 12, 07:36
Ogukuo72's Avatar
Ogukuo72 Ogukuo72 is offline
General of the Forums
Singapore
5 Year Service Ribbon 
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Singapore
Posts: 5,924
Ogukuo72 is simply cracking [600]
Ogukuo72 is simply cracking [600] Ogukuo72 is simply cracking [600] Ogukuo72 is simply cracking [600] Ogukuo72 is simply cracking [600] Ogukuo72 is simply cracking [600] Ogukuo72 is simply cracking [600] Ogukuo72 is simply cracking [600] Ogukuo72 is simply cracking [600] Ogukuo72 is simply cracking [600] Ogukuo72 is simply cracking [600] Ogukuo72 is simply cracking [600]
I was a McCain supporter four years ago, but now I understand that he put his vanity before the good of the public in his refusal to do everything in his power to win, thinking only of his honor. At least it seems neither Romney nor Gingrich will indulge in the luxury of this delusion.

It's going to be a tough fight. Obama is going to be well funded. The media is going to be in his pocket. Whoever the GOP nominee is will have to fight tough, fight dirty, and do everything in their power to tear Obama down.

Romney showed a bit of street fighter spirit in Florida against Gingrich. He had better be even more aggressive against Obama.
Sponsored Links

  #11  
Old 06 Feb 12, 08:53
Massena's Avatar
Massena Massena is offline
General of the Forums
United_States
 
Real Name: Kevin F. Kiley
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Jacksonville
Posts: 10,823
Massena gives and gets respect [800] Massena gives and gets respect [800]
Massena gives and gets respect [800] Massena gives and gets respect [800] Massena gives and gets respect [800] Massena gives and gets respect [800]
Don't hold your breath on this one. Obama wasn't supposed to win the last time, either...

Sincerely,
M
__________________
We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven; that which we are we are; One equal temper of heroic hearts
Made weak by time and fate but strong in will
To strive to seek to find and not to yield.
  #12  
Old 06 Feb 12, 09:15
semperpietas's Avatar
semperpietas semperpietas is offline
Lieutenant General
United_States
Most Significant/Influential Tank Campaign 
 
Real Name: Chase
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Jonesboro, Arkansas
Posts: 3,591
semperpietas is on a distinguished road [300] semperpietas is on a distinguished road [300] semperpietas is on a distinguished road [300] semperpietas is on a distinguished road [300] semperpietas is on a distinguished road [300] semperpietas is on a distinguished road [300] semperpietas is on a distinguished road [300] semperpietas is on a distinguished road [300] semperpietas is on a distinguished road [300] semperpietas is on a distinguished road [300] semperpietas is on a distinguished road [300] semperpietas is on a distinguished road [300] semperpietas is on a distinguished road [300] semperpietas is on a distinguished road [300] semperpietas is on a distinguished road [300]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Massena View Post
Don't hold your breath on this one. Obama wasn't supposed to win the last time, either...

Sincerely,
M
It helped that economy tanked on the incumbent's watch which pushed Obama to the WH.

Since Obama has ignored his mandate to improve the economy, he is now the incumbent with the bad economy.
__________________
"Hit hard when you start, but don't start until you have everything ready." - Lt. Gen. James Longstreet

Pyrrhus Travels West:
Hanno the Infamous, General of Carthage, Rb Mhnt of Sicily

Diadochi Rising:
Cassander, Champion of Makedon
  #13  
Old 06 Feb 12, 09:46
The Doctor's Avatar
The Doctor The Doctor is online now
General of the Forums
United_States
Distinguished Service Award ACG Ten Year Service Award 5 Year Service Ribbon Summer Campaign 
Greatest Westerns Campaign Greatest Spy Movies Campaign 
 
Real Name: Dave
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Dallas, Texas
Posts: 38,955
The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+] The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+] The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+] The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+] The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+] The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+] The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+]
The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+] The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+] The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+] The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+] The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+] The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+] The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+] The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+] The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+] The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+] The Doctor has achieved enlightenment [1200+]
Quote:
Originally Posted by semperpietas View Post
It helped that economy tanked on the incumbent's watch which pushed Obama to the WH.

Since Obama has ignored his mandate to improve the economy, he is now the incumbent with the bad economy.
But, but, but... It's Bush's fault that Obama is the incumbent!
  #14  
Old 06 Feb 12, 09:53
steelpot's Avatar
steelpot steelpot is offline
Major
United_States
5 Year Service Ribbon 
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: CONUS
Posts: 1,026
steelpot has disabled reputation
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ogukuo72 View Post
I was a McCain supporter four years ago, but now I understand that he put his vanity before the good of the public in his refusal to do everything in his power to win, thinking only of his honor. At least it seems neither Romney nor Gingrich will indulge in the luxury of this delusion.

It's going to be a tough fight. Obama is going to be well funded. The media is going to be in his pocket. Whoever the GOP nominee is will have to fight tough, fight dirty, and do everything in their power to tear Obama down.

Romney showed a bit of street fighter spirit in Florida against Gingrich. He had better be even more aggressive against Obama.
I couldn't agree more!!
  #15  
Old 06 Feb 12, 09:53
Naffenea's Avatar
Naffenea Naffenea is offline
General of the Forums
United_States
5 Year Service Ribbon Summer Campaign 100 Greatest Generals, 2008 Greatest Blunders Campaign 
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Utah
Posts: 5,745
Naffenea is a jewel in the rough [500]
Naffenea is a jewel in the rough [500] Naffenea is a jewel in the rough [500] Naffenea is a jewel in the rough [500] Naffenea is a jewel in the rough [500] Naffenea is a jewel in the rough [500] Naffenea is a jewel in the rough [500] Naffenea is a jewel in the rough [500] Naffenea is a jewel in the rough [500] Naffenea is a jewel in the rough [500]
Can we please stop blaming Bush for Obama? Everyone can plainly see it's Clinton's fault.
 

Please bookmark this thread if you enjoyed it!


Thread Tools
Display Modes



Forum Jump

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:08.
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.