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  #1  
Old 02 Jun 15, 12:35
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Zhukov allows the WM to attack Moscow

Zhukov stands his ground and refuses to throw the pointless counter attacks ordered by Stalin, which would only weaken the Soviet position in late Oct and early Nov 1941.
STalin knows that Zhukov is his only hope and yields.

Instead of throwing the large, well armed forces from the east at the Germans on 5 Dec, 1941 and wasting the defensive lines around Moscow, Zhukov holds the bulk of his best forces in reserve and allows the Germans to attack Moscow.

In the extreme cold the Germans (with inadequate clothing, rapidly running out of tanks, fuel, ammo, etc, and unable to fly) experience heavy losses piercing each of the 3 defensive lines, with their supply lines stretched to the limit and under attack by partisans. The trapped Soviets fight fanatically. In contrast to the LW, Soviet planes do fly and harrass the WM causing supply difficulties and heavy casualties. The Soviets have more guns, heavy mortars, rockets and shells and kill thousands of exposed German troops attacking without air support and with limited artillery support.

Finally on 18 Jan, 1942 (when the Germans have pierced the 3rd defensive ring, but are exhausted, frozen and very low in men, munitions, tanks, fuel, etc,) Zhukov unleashes his fresh eastern troops and over a thousand tanks and isolates a large army in a semi circle with a 100 km radius around Moscow.

Germany loses 3/4 million men and most of its tanks, guns, etc, and the Soviets rapidly advance towards Minsk, threatening to trap the weak army group N, which has no tanks and few planes.

Last edited by Draco; 02 Jun 15 at 12:57..
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  #2  
Old 02 Jun 15, 13:10
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OK, let's just address the core issue. TAG and the rest will pull the rest apart.

Zhukov refuses to order the attacks.

Zhukov is relived, and has a decent chance of being executed. His successor goes ahead with the plan.

The end.
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  #3  
Old 02 Jun 15, 14:15
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Hoping that others will make better arguments than You is a rather pathetic position.

Stalin was a bully, not a retard. Had Zhukov insisted, Stalin would have had to relent. Zhukov was the least incompetent of his top commanders, Stalin simply had no replacement for him and would have even respected Zhukov more than he did for obeying him blindly and launching wasteful counter attacks.

It was asenine to waste the thousands of km of AT ditches, trenches, pill boxes, etc, around Moscow and not force the Germans into costly urban warfare in order to trap them but instead attack the Germans out in the open and allow them to retreat and shorten their supply lines to prepare a defensive line. A premature, broad, frontal attack, instead of an enveloping maneuver is absurd, when Soviet armor and planes have more mobility than the frozen Panzers and LW without fuel, etc,

In a sense stopping the Soviet counter offensive with extremely weak infantry and artillery was comparable to the Dunkirk miracle. A large army was saved only thanks to the attacking commander's incompetence.

The WM had put itself in a deadly position and Zhukov allowed them to slip away and prolong the war.

Besides the Stuka (which was not flying), the only decent German weapon against the T-34 at the time was the 88 mm and there were few of them and they had little mobility and ammo in Jan 1942 and were exposed to Soviet planes.

Last edited by Draco; 02 Jun 15 at 14:27..
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Old 02 Jun 15, 14:52
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This thread doesn't make sense. In Oct. (Typhoon Phase I) it was largely the germans doing the attacking with two great encirclements. There were no major soviet counteroffensives and for the most part the Soviets defended rigidly with strongpoints.

The Soviets did allow the Axis to attack Moscow- on the basis that the Germans were at the end of their rope.
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Old 02 Jun 15, 14:56
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Originally Posted by Arnold J Rimmer View Post
OK, let's just address the core issue. TAG and the rest will pull the rest apart.

Zhukov refuses to order the attacks.

Zhukov is relived, and has a decent chance of being executed. His successor goes ahead with the plan.

The end.
What "rest" is there? Zhukov gets executed for disobeying Stalin's orders and somebody else launches the winter offensive with the same results...
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Old 02 Jun 15, 15:41
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What "rest" is there? Zhukov gets executed for disobeying Stalin's orders and somebody else launches the winter offensive with the same results...
Hey, I was just happy to get in before you tore his scenario to shreds. Again.
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Old 02 Jun 15, 16:22
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This thread doesn't make sense. In Oct. (Typhoon Phase I) it was largely the germans doing the attacking with two great encirclements. There were no major soviet counteroffensives and for the most part the Soviets defended rigidly with strongpoints.

The Soviets did allow the Axis to attack Moscow- on the basis that the Germans were at the end of their rope.

As early as 6 Oct, 1941 Katukov inflicted a heavy defeat on Guderian's tanks in Mtsensk (near Oriol). That was one of the very few successful counter attacks in Oct.

The Panzers had to stop until the ground froze in early Nov to renew their offensive. There were only 50 tanks of the 2nd Panzer group in Tula in mid Nov. However, the Germans never took it before the massive counter offensive was launched, much less attack Moscow.

Stalin ordered dozens of counter attacks, Zhukov objected slightly and performed them, losing urgently needed forces. The only successful action in Nov took place in Aleksin, where the Germans did not have enough 88 mm guns to stop the T-34s and took heavy losses.

On the E, N and S the Germans never came really close to Moscow.

On 1 Dec, 1941 the Germans launched an attack from the W with extremely few tanks and stalled. A small recce unit came within 8 km of Moscow and was driven back. That is the closest the WM came to attacking Moscow, but Zhukov counter attacked on 5 Dec, before the Germans attacked the defensive rings with heavy losses for lack of adequate air, tank and heavy artillery support. A major mistake. The WM thought that the Soviets were beaten and a major effort would capture Moscow. Had Zhukov postponed the attack until 18 Jan, 1942 and moved to envelop, instead of launching a broad attack, the WM would have been caught with its pants down.

The weather, mines and formidable AAA in Moscow alone would have caused a lot of German casualties assaulting the city, for few Soviet losses.

Last edited by Draco; 02 Jun 15 at 16:46..
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Old 02 Jun 15, 16:57
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What did Stalin do when Voroshilov threw the soup on his face and told him that they were losing the war because Stalin had killed all the good generals in the purges? and that was idiotic Voroshilov. Stalin is certainly not going to get rid of the only commander who stands a chance of stopping the WM. He brought Zhukov from Leningrad to command, he will have to stop interfering with his plans.
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Old 02 Jun 15, 17:03
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Draco View Post
Zhukov stands his ground and refuses to throw the pointless counter attacks ordered by Stalin, which would only weaken the Soviet position in late Oct and early Nov 1941.
STalin knows that Zhukov is his only hope and yields.

Instead of throwing the large, well armed forces from the east at the Germans on 5 Dec, 1941 and wasting the defensive lines around Moscow, Zhukov holds the bulk of his best forces in reserve and allows the Germans to attack Moscow.

In the extreme cold the Germans (with inadequate clothing, rapidly running out of tanks, fuel, ammo, etc, and unable to fly) experience heavy losses piercing each of the 3 defensive lines, with their supply lines stretched to the limit and under attack by partisans. The trapped Soviets fight fanatically. In contrast to the LW, Soviet planes do fly and harrass the WM causing supply difficulties and heavy casualties. The Soviets have more guns, heavy mortars, rockets and shells and kill thousands of exposed German troops attacking without air support and with limited artillery support.

Finally on 18 Jan, 1942 (when the Germans have pierced the 3rd defensive ring, but are exhausted, frozen and very low in men, munitions, tanks, fuel, etc,) Zhukov unleashes his fresh eastern troops and over a thousand tanks and isolates a large army in a semi circle with a 100 km radius around Moscow.

Germany loses 3/4 million men and most of its tanks, guns, etc, and the Soviets rapidly advance towards Minsk, threatening to trap the weak army group N, which has no tanks and few planes.
I'm in general agreement with the others that at this stage of the War Zhukov will disappear one way or another. However, this is the Xtreme alternative history forum after all, and lets give Zhukov his 'win'.

In this scenario, we are essentially we are talking about a Stalingrad event one year earlier. Hitler is probably more sane at this point than in the beginning of 43, read that as you will, and it might be the case that all those unorthodox technologies the Nazi's loved so much might have born fruit if greater emphasis had been applied earlier.

Unfortunately, the aftermath of a Stalingrad event a year earlier has too many variables to truly form a possible outcome of future events. Certainly the Soviets would be highly unlikely to be storming Berlin in April/May 44.
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Old 02 Jun 15, 17:12
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Let's take it another direction. AGC decides that the deteriorating weather and supply situation is such that they instead stop and dig in. With no immediate counter offensive, AGC's position within a month has improved greatly and winter clothing starts to arrive. The front stabilizes and the breathing space gained by the inaction of the Soviets gives the Germans the time they need to reorganize and get set for a defense.
When Stalin does finally get the Red Army moving on a counter offensive, the Germans stomp it into the ground rather than face a hasty and disorganized defense that crumbles much of their line in front of Moscow.
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Old 02 Jun 15, 17:43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by T. A. Gardner View Post
Let's take it another direction. AGC decides that the deteriorating weather and supply situation is such that they instead stop and dig in. With no immediate counter offensive, AGC's position within a month has improved greatly and winter clothing starts to arrive. The front stabilizes and the breathing space gained by the inaction of the Soviets gives the Germans the time they need to reorganize and get set for a defense.
When Stalin does finally get the Red Army moving on a counter offensive, the Germans stomp it into the ground rather than face a hasty and disorganized defense that crumbles much of their line in front of Moscow.

I think the OP is complicated enough without the Germans acting differently than they did.

I still think this thread is really about a Stalingrad event in 41/2 rather than 42/3. However, I know I don't really know enough about the Eastern Front to give a truly probable outcome. There are too many variables.

As far as the membership here at ACG is concerned, RN Armstrong may be the best placed to answer?
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Old 02 Jun 15, 17:59
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Mtsensk was more like a defensive stand, and it was a small tactical action with operational results against a rather weak KG Eberbach. The actions of the soviets in Oct-Nov 1941 can be characterized by rigid defense by hundreds of strongpoints/echeloned lines. There were of course, counterattacks but there were no major counteroffensives in Oct.

Counterattack activity in Oct 1941 was a small portion of overall soviet actions. This was not...Smolensk. They were busy trying to survive the Vyzama-Bryansk pockets. There was also much quiet time afterwards, as the Germans had a long delay to store supplies to prepare for Typhoon II and the Soviets were trying to patch up the front.

I think this thread doesn't make sense- if you were talking about Smolensk then maybe it could work.

Quote:
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As early as 6 Oct, 1941 Katukov inflicted a heavy defeat on Guderian's tanks in Mtsensk (near Oriol). That was one of the very few successful counter attacks in Oct.

The Panzers had to stop until the ground froze in early Nov to renew their offensive. There were only 50 tanks of the 2nd Panzer group in Tula in mid Nov. However, the Germans never took it before the massive counter offensive was launched, much less attack Moscow.
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Old 02 Jun 15, 18:41
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Originally Posted by T. A. Gardner View Post
Let's take it another direction. AGC decides that the deteriorating weather and supply situation is such that they instead stop and dig in. With no immediate counter offensive, AGC's position within a month has improved greatly and winter clothing starts to arrive. The front stabilizes and the breathing space gained by the inaction of the Soviets gives the Germans the time they need to reorganize and get set for a defense.
When Stalin does finally get the Red Army moving on a counter offensive, the Germans stomp it into the ground rather than face a hasty and disorganized defense that crumbles much of their line in front of Moscow.
Hitler makes the decisions, not ACG. All his generals had asked permission to dig in till the spring and were ignored. Hitler has not suffered a single defeat on land so far and intelligence tells him the Soviets are collapsing and have fewer forces in the area than the WM. The LW is having a hell of a time flying in Jan 1942, so recce and army effectiveness are poor.

Regarding an analogy with STalingrad:
Stalingrad had lousy AAA and defensive rings. The bulk of the Soviet army was in the W fighting simultaneously in Rzhev, etc, German tank and plane production had increased considerably in late 1942. The STUG and PZ IV have long barrel guns, which are effective against the T-34. The Germans attacked in good weather, were already in the city in the rasputitsa and had good clothing for the winter, had full use of the LW, a large tank force, more effective AT guns against the T-34, plenty of munitions and hundreds of thousands of Italians and Romanians assisting them.

In contrast, in Jan 1942 the Germans and their equipment are frozen and poorly supplied, the divisions are reduced to a fraction of their strength and are receiving few replacements. Tank, plane, cannon and munitions production is still a joke and don't come even close to replacing losses (while Stalingrad, Tankograd, Detroit, etc, are beginning to produce impressive amounts of superior tanks). The Germans' only effective AT weapon is the 88 mm, whose production is small and which Göring is amassing for AAA in Germany.
in Jan 1942 the Soviets still control Sevastopol and Rostov and are beginning to receive tanks, planes, explosives, food, telephones, radios, etc, from the W. Moscow with massive AAA and 3 defensive rings in the coldest winter in decades can much more easily stop a poorly equipped and supplied and battered WM than vulnerable Stalingrad can stop the 6th army with plenty of tanks and planes and in good weather.

With little fighting other than in Moscow, Sevastopol, Rostov and Leningrad, the USSR can deploy a much larger force for a surprise counter offensive on 18 Jan 1942 than on 5 Dec, 1941. Probably with over 2,000 tanks and planes and a million men. Just when Hitler is celebrating breaking through the last defensive ring after losing over 200,000 men just to frostbite. he learns that his army has been isolated and is being wiped out by a massive armor offensive.

In 1941 Rommel failed to take Tobruk with his weak force and in Jan 1942 is requesting men, tanks, guns, planes, etc, The Germans also desperately need materiel to fight in Yugoslavia, to defend Germany from bomber attacks and to defend France from an allied landing.

Last edited by Draco; 02 Jun 15 at 19:03..
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Old 02 Jun 15, 20:06
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Hitler makes the decisions, not ACG. All his generals had asked permission to dig in till the spring and were ignored. Hitler has not suffered a single defeat on land so far and intelligence tells him the Soviets are collapsing and have fewer forces in the area than the WM. The LW is having a hell of a time flying in Jan 1942, so recce and army effectiveness are poor.
Total ignorant BS as usual. Fuhrer Behfel 41 wasn't invoked until April 5 1942. Hitler wasn't running the show and meddling while his generals were winning.

http://www.stalingrad.net/german-hq/...ves/dir41.html

4th Army out of AGC had already dug in several weeks before the final push by AGC on Moscow. It alone completely repulsed the Soviet counter offensive. Had the rest of the Army Group been given a few weeks to dig in and reorganize they too would have repulsed the Russians as 4th Army did.
It is certain given deteriorating weather that AGC would have stopped and dug in not continued the advance.
Historians all agree on that.

As for the Luftwaffe. Read up on the Demyansk Pocket around Rzhev and Vyazma. The Luftwaffe in the deep of the Russian winter successfully supplied and even reinforced surrounded German troops in that pocket who held off the Soviet offensive.
It was a major reason behind Hitler's stand fast order for 6th Army and the belief that the Luftwaffe could repeat that success at Stalingrad.

So, my scenario is the likely one and your having the Soviets dither and defend almost certainly is to their detriment. Better that they throw their troops forward like they did (losing most of the units too I might add) while the Germans are off balance and causing a reset for the next summer rather than having the Germans on Moscow's doorstep in much better condition come spring when they can launch another go at taking Moscow.

Last edited by T. A. Gardner; 02 Jun 15 at 20:16..
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Old 02 Jun 15, 21:42
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Mtsensk was more like a defensive stand, and it was a small tactical action with operational results against a rather weak KG Eberbach. The actions of the soviets in Oct-Nov 1941 can be characterized by rigid defense by hundreds of strongpoints/echeloned lines. There were of course, counterattacks but there were no major counteroffensives in Oct.

Counterattack activity in Oct 1941 was a small portion of overall soviet actions. This was not...Smolensk. They were busy trying to survive the Vyzama-Bryansk pockets. There was also much quiet time afterwards, as the Germans had a long delay to store supplies to prepare for Typhoon II and the Soviets were trying to patch up the front.

I think this thread doesn't make sense- if you were talking about Smolensk then maybe it could work.
read again, I wrote about costly counter attacks not massive counteroffensives. Stalin wasted at least 70,000 men and 240 tanks in them, which would have been very helpful and much more effective defending Moscow.

Vyazma and Bryansk represented a small area and forced the Germans to waste 28 divisions and a lot of munitions at a crucial time. As I stated the deepest penetration was from the W, not the S.

There is no reason at all to launch the massive counter offensive before the WM even reaches Moscow and waste the labor of digging millions of m3 and preparing defenses in order to attack the WM in the open. Zhukov's absurd decision on 5 Dec has nothing to do with Smolensk, I don't see why You mention it.
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