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Old 20 Oct 17, 11:31
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Crime rises by 13% in England and Wales, ONS statistics say

What’s up with that?
Quote:
The number of crimes recorded annually in England and Wales has passed the five million mark for the first time in 10 years, rising by 13%, figures show.
The Office for National Statistics said crimes in the 12 months to June were up from 4.6 million the previous year.
It said crime categorised as "violent" rose by 19%, with rises in offences including stalking and harassment.
The Crime Survey for England and Wales, based on people's experiences, suggests there were 10.8 million offences.
The survey includes crimes that people do not report to police. When comparing like-for-like crimes, the survey reported a 9% reduction compared with the previous year.
John Flatley, from the ONS, said: "While improvements made by police forces in recording crime are still a factor in the increase, we judge that there have been genuine increases in crime - particularly in some of the low incidence but more harmful categories."
But he said police figures alone cannot provide "a good measure of all crime in society".
"The recent increases in recorded crime need to be seen in the context of the overall decline in crime indicated by the Crime Survey for England and Wales," he said.
The ONS report said:
§ Knife crime was up 26% year-on-year
§ Nearly half of the increase in knife crime was attributed to London
§ Sexual offences were up 19%
§ The number of homicides (cases of murder and manslaughter) increased by 46 to 629, excluding the terror attacks in London and Manchester
§ There were 1.2 million crimes of violence against the person
The 19% increase in "violence against the person" offences dealt with by police was "driven largely" by increases in the sub-categories of "violence without injury" (21%) and "stalking and harassment" (36%) and "violence with injury" (10%), the ONS said.
Crime minister Sarah Newton said "much" of the rise in violent offences was down to better crime recording.
However, she added: "We know that some of this increase is likely to be genuine. Which is why have taken urgent action to stop these crimes and keep our communities safe.
"This week we began consulting on tough new laws to crack down on acid attacks and knife offences. Our Domestic Abuse Bill will help to bring this heinous crime out of the shadows and ensure victims receive both support and justice, as we invest £100m to prevent and confront violence against women and girls."
She said the government was also investing £1.9 billion to counter the cyber-threats.
When we talk about crime rates we usually look at two things: police records and the number of incidents reported in the annual 38,000-person Crime Survey for England and Wales.
Neither is wrong but the more difficult question is which best represents how much crime is actually being committed.
The Crime Survey is generally considered a good measure of crime experienced by individuals because it is not affected by changes to how crime is recorded.
It also includes crimes that have historically been under-reported to the police.
However, it has some limitations. It does not cover crimes against businesses or people living in communal residences like care homes, prisons or student accommodation. It is also excludes crimes where there is no victim to interview, for example murders and drug offences.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-41677046
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  #2  
Old 20 Oct 17, 12:21
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Brexit obviously
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Old 20 Oct 17, 23:22
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Brexit obviously
That was quick,
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Old 21 Oct 17, 16:09
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The challenge with this sort of data is it is very superficial. Crime is up in some of the worst categories, but WHO is responsible, which segment of society. With that information the data becomes more meaningful. It makes suspicious that such info is not easily available.
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Old 25 Oct 17, 07:57
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Originally Posted by Escape2Victory View Post
The challenge with this sort of data is it is very superficial. Crime is up in some of the worst categories, but WHO is responsible, which segment of society. With that information the data becomes more meaningful. It makes suspicious that such info is not easily available.
I bet the real reason is that they changed their calculation methods.
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Old 25 Oct 17, 17:50
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Quote:
I bet the real reason is that they changed their calculation methods.
Exactly. In 2014 police crime figures were stripped of their "official" status over concerns the police weren't recording enough crime:

Quote:
Recorded crime figures in England and Wales are likely to rise in the wake of a decision to strip the data of official status, a watchdog has told MPs.
Sir Andrew Dilnot, chairman of the UK Statistics Authority (UKSA) made the admission as crime figures came under renewed scrutiny and appeared to suggest rising crime data could soon become a political problem for the Government.
Sir Andrew last week withdrew "national statistics" designation from all crime data recorded by the police with immediate effect, amid widespread concern that forces have been "fiddling" the figures.
In a follow-up session by the Commons' public administration select committee, Sir Andrew said: "It is quite conceivable that police recorded crime statistics data could show an increase in recorded crime over the next little while."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...al-status.html

The crime survey, which has always shown far more crime than the police record, has continued to show falls, with crime down 9% last year. The police are under a lot of pressure to record a greater proportion of crimes, it's hardly surprising they are doing so.

For example, violent crime with injury:

June 2015 - June 2016
Police recorded 438,980
Crime survey 575,000
Percentage recorded by the police 76.3%

June 2016 - June 2017
Police recorded 480,748
Crime survey 571,000
Percentage recorded by the police 84.2%

The police recorded figures are just a subset of the crime survey figures because the police obviously cannot record all crime. However, the police are now recording a higher proportion, which means they are recording more crimes even as the total numbers fall.
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Old 26 Oct 17, 07:53
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Originally Posted by Karri View Post
I bet the real reason is that they changed their calculation methods.
He means : they "adapted" their calculated methods .
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Old 26 Oct 17, 08:00
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hop View Post
Exactly. In 2014 police crime figures were stripped of their "official" status over concerns the police weren't recording enough crime:


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...al-status.html

The crime survey, which has always shown far more crime than the police record, has continued to show falls, with crime down 9% last year. The police are under a lot of pressure to record a greater proportion of crimes, it's hardly surprising they are doing so.

For example, violent crime with injury:

June 2015 - June 2016
Police recorded 438,980
Crime survey 575,000
Percentage recorded by the police 76.3%

June 2016 - June 2017
Police recorded 480,748
Crime survey 571,000
Percentage recorded by the police 84.2%

The police recorded figures are just a subset of the crime survey figures because the police obviously cannot record all crime. However, the police are now recording a higher proportion, which means they are recording more crimes even as the total numbers fall.
And, why should one believe the crime survey figures ?

Most crimes are not reported to the police . Thus the percentage recorded by the police does not fit :it could be 50%,or less instead of 84 % .
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Old 26 Oct 17, 09:00
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Simon Jenkins (from the Guardian) said : stats about increasing crime must be banned .

Jozef Stalin (from the Pravda ) said : stats about a low increase of the population after the famine, should be banned .

Angela Merkel (from the DDR ) said : what I am consider as hate speech must be banned .

Loretta Lynch (of the Hillary Foundation ) said : those who doubt climate change must be prosecuted

Birds of a feather flock together .
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Old 26 Oct 17, 16:31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ljadw View Post
And, why should one believe the crime survey figures ?
Because the crime survey uses a consistent methodology whereas the police change their practices according to political pressure.

A couple of years ago politicians attacked the police for not recording enough crime. The head of the statistics agency said police recorded crime was likely to increase as a result, and now it has. Is any of that surprising? If you pressure the police to record more crime they will. It doesn't mean crime is rising.

Quote:
Most crimes are not reported to the police . Thus the percentage recorded by the police does not fit :it could be 50%,or less instead of 84 % .
I meant the police are recording a certain percent of the crime the crime survey is picking up, not a percentage of crimes reported to the police.
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Old 27 Oct 17, 07:05
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It would be very naive to have any faith in the crime survey figures .If people are nor report crimes, there is no crime .

The recorded/reported crime figures are only a tip of the iceberg, and I would not be surprised if the real figures are a factor 1O of the reported ones/Recorded ones .

Take the rape stats for England and Wales :

2002/2003 12295

2016/2017 41150

They are ridiculous low and impossible .

What's the conclusion ?

Those who claim that the rape figures are stable or decreasing, must explain why the number of raped women that is reporting their rape to the police is going up by 330 %.

The most likely conclusion is that the % of raped women that is going to the police remains stable, (in this case it would be 10 %)but that the absolute number of rapes in going up .

And it would be the same for burglaries, vandalism,robbery,.....

There were in 2016/2017 10.8 million incidents of crime reported /recorded, and as these are only a small part of the numbers that happened ..........

Last edited by ljadw; 27 Oct 17 at 07:19..
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Old 27 Oct 17, 07:21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hop View Post



I meant the police are recording a certain percent of the crime the crime survey is picking up, not a percentage of crimes reported to the police.
And, what is a certain percent ?
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Old 27 Oct 17, 08:08
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Thumbs down

It's not rocket science in my 'umble opinion. Two of Sheffield's biggest and most dangerous council estates are the Manor and the Wybourn... have a wild shot in the dark as to how many coppers patrol it.

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Old 27 Oct 17, 15:33
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European countries are notorious for misleading stats . Nothing new about that. It's a "socialist thing.
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Old 27 Oct 17, 17:27
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Quote:
It would be very naive to have any faith in the crime survey figures .If people are nor report crimes, there is no crime .
The crime survey doesn't rely on people reporting crimes, it goes out and asks them their experience of crime over the previous year.

Quote:
he recorded/reported crime figures are only a tip of the iceberg, and I would not be surprised if the real figures are a factor 1O of the reported ones/Recorded ones .
For real crime to be 10 times higher than the crime survey, 9 out of 10 victims of crime would have to lie to the crime survey. That doesn't seem likely.

That's not to say that it accurately records all crime, of course. It cannot pick up on very rare crimes like murder, and there may be a degree of under-reporting of sexual crime.

Quote:
Take the rape stats for England and Wales :

2002/2003 12295

2016/2017 41150

They are ridiculous low and impossible .

What's the conclusion ?

Those who claim that the rape figures are stable or decreasing, must explain why the number of raped women that is reporting their rape to the police is going up by 330 %.
With public campaigns urging women to come forward, and far more focus on believing people who report sexual crimes (even to a ridiculous extent), it's not hard to see why reporting rates are increasing.

At the same time, the crime survey has been asking about sex crimes since 2005, and has found a significant fall in the numbers (down by about 50%).

Neither the police nor crime survey figures is "accurate", but the one that uses a consistent methodology, and isn't subject to political pressure, shows falling rates for sex crimes.

Quote:
The most likely conclusion is that the % of raped women that is going to the police remains stable, (in this case it would be 10 %)but that the absolute number of rapes in going up .
Why is that the most likely conclusion? The police have become much more pro-active in seeking out alleged victims (eg naming the accused and appealing for other victims to come forward), the police now automatically assume complainants are telling the truth, and treat them much more sympathetically.

The crime survey has been using the same methodology and shows falling rates.

Quote:
And it would be the same for burglaries, vandalism,robbery,.....
Why? Why would people start lying to the crime survey and say they hadn't been the victim of a burglary, vandalism or robbery when they had? Why should any more people lie about such a thing now than 10 or 20 years ago?

Quote:
There were in 2016/2017 10.8 million incidents of crime reported /recorded, and as these are only a small part of the numbers that happened ..........
Why are they only a small proportion? Why would people lie about being the victim of crime? (excluding sex crimes, of course, where many people are reluctant to discuss their experience)
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