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  #16  
Old 06 Jan 15, 15:32
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A year is plenty of time to close a weak front.

Hitler and all his generals and admirals know that they cannot continue to fight on two fronts.

The Germans never fortified heavily defenses in the long east front, they depended on mobility to encircle Soviet forces, which for a while were rather poor on the offensive, rapidly running out of steam after breaking through.

Hitler wasted a lot of valuable resources building the Atlantic wall (labour, steel, etc,), which he will not use in this scenario, since he is on the offensive.

Even with a ridiculous axis air force in the Med, it was such an RN pond that the allies sent millions of tons to Alexandria, India, Iran, Burma (before Japan took it), Malaya, etc, sailing around South Africa.
With a much larger air force and with bases in Tunisia and Morocco nothing other than RN subs enter the Med and those cannot be supplied.

The axis would have certainly defeated Britain in myriad scenarios. Here are 2.

1) Hitler does not waste the LW over Britain in 1940 with fighters without drop tanks (which the Germans had used long before the war), but send a large air force to the Med, closing it in August 1940 and enabling Italy to defeat the ridiculous force in Egypt.

2) Accepting Stalin's conditions to join the axis in Dec 1941, the Bosphorous, Iran, etc, which would have rapidly doomed Britain. Leaving the axis then to lead only with Stalin

Last edited by Draco; 06 Jan 15 at 20:17..
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  #17  
Old 06 Jan 15, 16:02
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Originally Posted by Draco View Post
The R-M pact was in no way a truce (they were not at war), it was an alliance to allow both countries to expand and benefit greatly at the expense of capitalist Europe.


The point is to let Germany, Britain, Canada and the US waste men and resources, while the USSR becomes much stronger, correcting deficiencies and enlarging the armed forces, including the tiny Red Navy.

It is really surprising that the USSR continued losing millions each of troops and civilians per year and receiving limited L-L, while Britain and the US lost fewer than 100,000 troops each per year during the first years (and hardly any civilians) and that Britiain received a lot more and better L-L in order to fight a tiny force and bomb houses at night.
While the British received the best 4 and twin engine bombers, naval and land fighters, SP guns, Shermans, etc, huge amounts of fuel, aluminum, steel, shipping, etc, USN escort for convoys to Britain, etc, in 1942 Stalin received P-39s (rejected by the British) and 40s, A-20 (inferior to the B-25 and 26), no 4 engine bombers, light Stuart tanks, few trucks, etc, and much of the materiel destined to Murmansk was lost in convoys such as PQ-17, escorted by the RN rather incompetently, instead of by the USN.

As soon as the truce negins, the western allies realize what the Soviets have been going through and begin to really appreciate their sacrifice and vital importance.
When Alexandria falls and Morocco is occupied Hitler exerts considerable pressure on Spain and Turkey to join the axis. He also reaches an agreement with Vichy, in which France will regain complete independence (except for Alsace-Lorraine) and retain all her African colonies as soon as Britain is defeated, if France joins the axis for the duration of the truce with the USSR.

The fall of Alexandria leaves Palestine, Syria, Jordan, Irak and Arabia exposed to the Axis. Stalin rapidly occupies these countries from Iran with forces deployed there while Hitler deployed his in Africa. That precludes Germany from gaining access to middel east oil until the turce elapses. This causes Turkey to panic, join the axis and allow German troops to deploy there. Stalin cannot occupy Turkey without breaking the truce.

After capturing Egypt, most of the axis planes and AAA redeploy from the Med to France, Belgium and Holland. In April 1943 the Italian, French, Spanish, German navies concentrate in the Bay of Biscay and Holland, forcing allied planes to attack them when weather permits, while axis fighters and heavy FLAK protect them. France and Italy provide 400 pilots, Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria, Spain and Turkey provide 100 pilots each, which together with the experienced LW super aces from the eastern front perform quite well with Bf109 and FW 190.
Hitler orders the He-177 to receive 4 conventional engines and propellers, which result in an excellent, reliable bomber. The Germans bomb 4 engine bomber bases in England with plenty of escort planes flwon by experienced pilots using drop tanks, causing heavy losses of planes on land and of allied fighters.
The Me-262 is rushed into production as a fighter and enters service in May 1943, decimating British and American fighters over Britain and the axis fleet..
It's no "fault" of the British and Americans that they failed to suffer the huge casualties that seems to get you salivating,perhaps if we all had been furnished with nincompoop Soviet generals and their defensive doctrine we may have satisfied your blood lust.
What does a good general do when it becomes obvious he is in a bad situation?
Why,he withdraws!
Stalin could do whatever the hell he liked with his forces,he answered to nobody,he could have had the entire STAVKA shot and replaced,nothing would have been said,so when you foolishly try and compare Western casualties with Eastern you should bear in mind that the Western Commanders and politicians were answerable for their actions.
Some see that as a weakness of democracies and some see it as a strength.
Study who won WW2 and then the Cold War to discover the truth.
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  #18  
Old 06 Jan 15, 16:22
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In proportion to the number of German and Japanese divisions they encountered and the time they fought them (few and short battles), throughout the war British generals lost a lot more men (dead, captured and wounded) than Soviet generals. Only Italian generals before the arrival of the AK did worse in WW II.

It is Stalin's fault that millions of Soviets died, while the British and Americans watched. Even the British public felt bad about that fact in 1942, they would have certainly undertood Stalin's truce.
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  #19  
Old 06 Jan 15, 17:36
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Originally Posted by Draco View Post
In proportion to the number of German and Japanese divisions they encountered and the time they fought them (few and short battles), throughout the war British generals lost a lot more men (dead, captured and wounded) than Soviet generals. Only Italian generals before the arrival of the AK did worse in WW II.

It is Stalin's fault that millions of Soviets died, while the British and Americans watched. Even the British public felt bad about that fact in 1942, they would have certainly undertood Stalin's truce.
Prove it. Show us the numbers because you have ZERO credibility just stating it.
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  #20  
Old 06 Jan 15, 19:10
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Draco,

To pull out, redeploy and then move items across hostile waters and then redeploy and modify (to desert operations) and then incorporate ad hoc since this wasn't part of the plan condenses that year quite a bit.

Oh and they did not have the infrastructure to handle more. Also you can never forget the "reaction" from the Allies, the more resources the Axis puts in, the more the Allies will. That is a losing equation for the Axis.

TAG, I think Russia would have prevailed against Germany regardless, your scenario (in my mind) leads to possibly a closer immediate relationship postwar between the US and Germany, with the US/GB still intervening to keep Europe from going Red and setting up a HOT conflict between the Allies and USSR.
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  #21  
Old 06 Jan 15, 19:49
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Originally Posted by Tyramon View Post
TAG, I think Russia would have prevailed against Germany regardless, your scenario (in my mind) leads to possibly a closer immediate relationship postwar between the US and Germany, with the US/GB still intervening to keep Europe from going Red and setting up a HOT conflict between the Allies and USSR.
I think the German - USSR conflict in my scenario would have resulted in a draw. While Russia on its own could fight the Germans to a standstill without much of the Lend-Lease materials they got they weren't going on the offensive like they did from mid 1943 on.
Lend-Lease didn't save Russia from defeat but it did massively help Russia to victory.

The British likewise without Lend Lease are badly hit. They are going to be severely hurt in North Africa for example. US supplied tanks and aircraft played a pivotal role in their success there. Without them the British are going to have severe problems winning in the timeframe they did, if at all.

Without US shipping to haul goods to England the British will also be in a bind. Their own shipbuilding capacity is insufficient to keep up with losses. While they are not going to be reduced to starvation it is going to hurt.

There is also no chance of a Vichy reconciliation or of a British / Commonwealth invasion of continental Europe on their own. That will free up considerable numbers of German troops and units for use in the East.

While the British could continue their bomber offensive without the US coming in it will be far less effective after 1943 than it was as the Germans can focus their defense on night raids alone.

As a scenario, it gives Germany a very good chance of a win.
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  #22  
Old 06 Jan 15, 20:02
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Draco View Post
In proportion to the number of German and Japanese divisions they encountered and the time they fought them (few and short battles), throughout the war British generals lost a lot more men (dead, captured and wounded) than Soviet generals. Only Italian generals before the arrival of the AK did worse in WW II.

It is Stalin's fault that millions of Soviets died, while the British and Americans watched. Even the British public felt bad about that fact in 1942, they would have certainly undertood Stalin's truce.
As an actual member of the British public I feel infinitely more qualified to judge how we would have reacted had Stalin thrown in the towel in 42.
The words "understanding" and "truce" would very definitely not have formed part of our response.

We fought the fascists non stop from East Africa (if you're talking about the axis forces as a whole) all the way to Austria and for almost one full year on both the Italian and the Western front.
We were fighting them while your role model,Stalin, was providing them with much needed assurances and resources whilst murdering whatever promising officers he was lucky enough to have.

There is one thing for sure,the UK and Commonwealth fought them through thick and thin,through defeat after defeat up until the end of 42 and thereafter going from victory to victory until finally we and our US allies were triumphant.

But we didn't stop there!

Once the barbarous Stalin and his reprehensible regime were seen for what they were we fought them too,not in pitched battle and perhaps only by proxy in far flung parts of the globe,but fight them we did.

They blinked first and we won that war too!

Nothing in your wet dream type fantasist "scenarios" can take that away from us.

WE WON,THEY LOST,imagine that; The soft and decadent capitalist West hammering the crap out of both of your heroes.
It's enough to make YOU weep.
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  #23  
Old 06 Jan 15, 20:45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tyramon View Post
Draco,

To pull out, redeploy and then move items across hostile waters and then redeploy and modify (to desert operations) and then incorporate ad hoc since this wasn't part of the plan condenses that year quite a bit.

Oh and they did not have the infrastructure to handle more. Also you can never forget the "reaction" from the Allies, the more resources the Axis puts in, the more the Allies will. That is a losing equation for the Axis.

TAG, I think Russia would have prevailed against Germany regardless, your scenario (in my mind) leads to possibly a closer immediate relationship postwar between the US and Germany, with the US/GB still intervening to keep Europe from going Red and setting up a HOT conflict between the Allies and USSR.
US priority is getting Stalin back in the fight, so they have to give him everything he demands, so they have left less to use against Germany.
Deploying 800 planes, 3 armoured and 3 light divisions to Sicily, Sardenia, Tunisia, Tripoli, Tobruk and Benghazi from France, Germany, Greece, etc, is no big deal. Despite extremely weak axis forces in the Med, strong Italian and German forces (including Tigers) were rapidly deployed to Tunisia after a beaten Rommel crawled back from el Alamein II.
In this scenario the LW promptly dominates the area, pummels Monty and the RN in Alexandria, stopping his offensive and provides time for the trucks, 88 mm, Tigers, Pz IV, etc, to arrive in el Alamein. Monty stops receiving materiel and begins losing tanks, etc, while the AK is rapidly reinforced.

In this scenario an extremely strong Germany in the Med is deploying much faster than it did when a beaten Rommel crawled back to Tripoli and entered Tunisia and the allies dominated the air (and hence the sea).

The meager aviation in Malta and Alexandria are promptly decimated and left without supplies, so most of the axis materiel shipped to Africa arrives safely. Tunisia expedites shipping enormously.

Tigers do not debut in a swampy area near Leningrad but in ideal terrain in Egypt, with axis air dominion. So even a dozen per Panzer division make a huge difference.

The allies have to ferry their fighters to Ghana and fly them across Africa to Egypt, so they cannot deploy nearly as fast as the axis. When the planes finally arrive, the mostly inexperienced pilots are promptly shot down by the larger, more experienced axis force.


Monty won only because he had complete quantitative superiority in air, tank, artillery (including SP guns), troops, etc, and the AK received no supplies through the Via Balbia because of RAF.
In this scenario he has none of that.
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  #24  
Old 06 Jan 15, 21:42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Draco View Post
US priority is getting Stalin back in the fight, so they have to give him everything he demands, so they have left less to use against Germany.
Wrong. The US priority is winning the war. Stalin abrogating treaties and agreements to sign a truce goes against that goal. The US would better employ what they gave the USSR by either using it themselves or redistributing it to active allies like Britain.
Basically, the US has every reason to end Lend Lease to the Soviet Union in this case and none to continue to supply it.


Quote:
Deploying 800 planes, 3 armoured and 3 light divisions to Sicily, Sardenia, Tunisia, Tripoli, Tobruk and Benghazi from France, Germany, Greece, etc, is no big deal. Despite extremely weak axis forces in the Med, strong Italian and German forces (including Tigers) were rapidly deployed to Tunisia after a beaten Rommel crawled back from el Alamein II.
Given historical precedent it will take Germany about 3 months to do this minimum. They are almost entirely reliant on Italian hulls for shipping. The Luftwaffe can move the men to North Africa at a rate of about one division per month but cannot fly in the heavy equipment. That has to come on ships.
Moving one panzer division (the 10th) and two Italian infantry divisions (about 1.25 German infantry divisions in terms of numbers) took the Axis just over a month right after the US invaded North Africa.
To support an additional 6 divisions is impossible for the Germans to do on limited space available from the Italians for shipping. They don't have the cargo space, dock space, or trucks available to move that big an amount of supplies forward more than about maybe 100 to 200 miles or so from the ports.


Quote:
In this scenario the LW promptly dominates the area, pummels Monty and the RN in Alexandria,
Except the Luftwaffe never dominated the air over North Africa. They don't have the resources to do it. For example, the USAAF already had the 57th Fighter Group and 12th Bombardment Group operating in Egypt when this scenario starts. They add the 79th Fighter Group and 324th FG by November. The fighters at this point are P-40F and L's along with B-25C's in the bombardment groups.
By Jan 1943 the US has several hundred aircraft in North Africa and the British about double what the US has. That is historical fact.
The Luftwaffe was fighting a defensive war and that was about all they could do.


Quote:
stopping his offensive and provides time for the trucks, 88 mm, Tigers, Pz IV, etc, to arrive in el Alamein. Monty stops receiving materiel and begins losing tanks, etc, while the AK is rapidly reinforced.
More like Monty gets far more resources since they aren't going to the USSR. The Germans can't build up fast enough and in the end they still eventually lose around 300,000 to 400,000 German and Italian troops when their forces in North Africa are defeated.


Quote:
In this scenario an extremely strong Germany in the Med is deploying much faster than it did when a beaten Rommel crawled back to Tripoli and entered Tunisia and the allies dominated the air (and hence the sea).
Germany has no viable sea power in the Med. They have next to no shipping. Without that they are totally dependent on the Italians for it and Italy is only willing to give them space available after Italian needs are met.


Quote:
The meager aviation in Malta and Alexandria are promptly decimated and left without supplies, so most of the axis materiel shipped to Africa arrives safely. Tunisia expedites shipping enormously.
The Luftwaffe was never able to make a sustained bombing campaign against Malta. They simply don't have the fuel to do it. That doesn't change here.

Quote:
Tigers do not debut in a swampy area near Leningrad but in ideal terrain in Egypt, with axis air dominion. So even a dozen per Panzer division make a huge difference.
Tigers will make no real difference. There is plenty of historical proof of that.

Quote:
The allies have to ferry their fighters to Ghana and fly them across Africa to Egypt, so they cannot deploy nearly as fast as the axis. When the planes finally arrive, the mostly inexperienced pilots are promptly shot down by the larger, more experienced axis force.
The Germans don't have the fuel to produce any sort of sustained air offensive anywhere. Aside from that, in the original historical version the Desert AF and most USAAF units were more experienced than their average Luftwaffe counterpart. They got more flying time and more training time.


Quote:
Monty won only because he had complete quantitative superiority in air, tank, artillery (including SP guns), troops, etc, and the AK received no supplies through the Via Balbia because of RAF.
In this scenario he has none of that.
Since that won't change your point is?

Last edited by T. A. Gardner; 07 Jan 15 at 00:30..
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  #25  
Old 07 Jan 15, 00:29
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TAG the problem I have is that GB and the US will still be allies. While it may be hard to justify an attack into Europe in your scenario by the US (I have had the same thought of Germany declaring war on Japan) the Brits and Americans would still have a common enemy in Japan.

America could easily still provide a lend-lease structure to GB, where GB uses those resources would be up to them.

Also if Germany continues to attack GB and keeps up the battle in the Atlantic then we are going to end up with US citizens being killed and a reason to jump in. On top of that Germany has no way to actually attack or threaten Japan, while it may take some time, I believe the proper use of propaganda would show the average US citizen the German declaration was nothing more than a tactic.

The USSR I believe could defeat Germany by themselves, once the USSR got it's ducks in a row it was a steamroller. Less trucks may mean less concurrent or rapid sequence offensives, and the fight would be even more bloody, however the simple overwhelming amount of people and resources the USSR had to call on means that eventually it will crush a bled white Germany.

I do believe that the US would intervene with GB to keep Europe as a whole out of the USSR's hands (with France and a liberated Italy etc jumping in). This means some line most likely in Germany where Western forces are in a less bloodied but less experienced state, versus a weary Russian force.

It would be even more of a tinderbox, I don't think the Allies will be able to do much more than exit the USSR from Europe as a whole in the scenario and then unless some hothead in power wants a total surrender with a nuke threat, there would be a peace settlement and the Cold War would commence with the USSR in a weaker position historically (since WW2 would be significantly an even more difficult affair for them).
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Old 07 Jan 15, 01:38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by T. A. Gardner View Post
Wrong. The US priority is winning the war. Stalin abrogating treaties and agreements to sign a truce goes against that goal. The US would better employ what they gave the USSR by either using it themselves or redistributing it to active allies like Britain.
Basically, the US has every reason to end Lend Lease to the Soviet Union in this case and none to continue to supply it.




Given historical precedent it will take Germany about 3 months to do this minimum. They are almost entirely reliant on Italian hulls for shipping. The Luftwaffe can move the men to North Africa at a rate of about one division per month but cannot fly in the heavy equipment. That has to come on ships.
Moving one panzer division (the 10th) and two Italian infantry divisions (about 1.25 German infantry divisions in terms of numbers) took the Axis just over a month right after the US invaded North Africa.
To support an additional 6 divisions is impossible for the Germans to do on limited space available from the Italians for shipping. They don't have the cargo space, dock space, or trucks available to move that big an amount of supplies forward more than about maybe 100 to 200 miles or so from the ports.




Except the Luftwaffe never dominated the air over North Africa. They don't have the resources to do it. For example, the USAAF already had the 57th Fighter Group and 12th Bombardment Group operating in Egypt when this scenario starts. They add the 79th Fighter Group and 324th FG by November. The fighters at this point are P-40F and L's along with B-25C's in the bombardment groups.
By Jan 1943 the US has several hundred aircraft in North Africa and the British about double what the US has. That is historical fact.
The Luftwaffe was fighting a defensive war and that was about all they could do.




More like Monty gets far more resources since they aren't going to the USSR. The Germans can't build up fast enough and in the end they still eventually lose around 300,000 to 400,000 German and Italian troops when their forces in North Africa are defeated.




Germany has no viable sea power in the Med. They have next to no shipping. Without that they are totally dependent on the Italians for it and Italy is only willing to give them space available after Italian needs are met.




The Luftwaffe was never able to make a sustained bombing campaign against Malta. They simply don't have the fuel to do it. That doesn't change here.



Tigers will make no real difference. There is plenty of historical proof of that.



The Germans don't have the fuel to produce any sort of sustained air offensive anywhere. Aside from that, in the original historical version the Desert AF and most USAAF units were more experienced than their average Luftwaffe counterpart. They got more flying time and more training time.




Since that won't change your point is?
The Germans are not wasting fuel in the USSR, received a million tons of oil from Stalin, Romania is not being bombed (Alexandria fell) and synthetic production is booming. It takes much less oil to destroy a rapidly decreasing number of planes and ships in Britain than moving large armies over a long and deep front in the USSR. Stalin can supply more oil as he sees fit (just like the old times in 1940-41)

If the US does not comply with Stalin's demands and stop L-L, Stalin can always sit and watch like the allies did. While he exploits middle east oil.
After Germany, the US and Britain weaken each other during a year he can:
1) If Germany is weak enough, he can attack Germany. He can deploy two forces with over 5,000 T-34s and planes each in narrow fronts along the Baltic and Black Seas and smash his way though East Prussia, Romania, etc, with his flanks covered by the seas. Or.
2) If Germany is still strong, he can:
a) Extend the truce another year, becoming even stronger without fighting. Or.
b) Offer to join the axis (like he agreed to in 1941, with several demands), providing oil and a very strong air force (to finish off the dwindling allied air force in Britian). He can expel the British from Abadan, defeat Chiang in weeks, taking the rest of China and liberating a large Japanese force, which can invade India from Burma together with the USSR. He can also invade coastal Afghanistan from Iran and then India from the west.

If the US realizes that it is impossible to defeat the LW and WM only with sore help from the British army and without the ability to transport large quantities of materiel to Britain, owing to German air domination and complies with Stalin's demands then Stalin can attack Japan as soon as he receives his fleet, taking Korea, Japanese occupied China, Indochina, Thailand and Burma in a few months gaining communist troops as he advances with a well equipped army. He uses his new navy simultaneously to capture several Japanese islands, Formosa, Hainan, Borneo, etc, From which he can bomb efficiently Japanese industry, ports, RR, etc, with his B-17s.
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Old 07 Jan 15, 01:48
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Originally Posted by Draco View Post
In June 1943 German paratroopers and submarine-borne special troops capture an airfield in Ireland, where Gigant transports (loaded with troops and supplies) and Me 262 with night vision screens land at night. The Gigants fly back at night to France after unloading and continue transporting their cargo every night.
With a refuelling on a stealth carrier build secretly during the Sealion operation.
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  #28  
Old 07 Jan 15, 02:21
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Originally Posted by sebfrench76 View Post
With a refuelling on a stealth carrier build secretly during the Sealion operation.
Oh now you have done it!
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  #29  
Old 07 Jan 15, 02:28
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Yeaaaah...
Couldn't resist to start a forest fire
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  #30  
Old 07 Jan 15, 04:02
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sebfrench76 View Post
Yeaaaah...
Couldn't resist to start a forest fire
Forest fires are handy in wartime for driving out and/ or cooking critters. folks can only go so far on Cabbage , potatoes, and Brown Bread.

Being French, you no doubt have a family recipe for hedgehog, etc....
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