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Go Back   Armchair General and HistoryNet >> The Best Forums in History > Military/History Related Hobbies > Alternate Timelines > Xtreme Alternate History

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Xtreme Alternate History Alternatives to History with No Holds Barred!

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  #16  
Old 10 Feb 15, 17:25
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You know all this can be simulated with a very inexpensive game that is fairly accurate concerning land warfare.

Strategic War in Europe

The graphics are crappy but I have created some alternatives and will share them if you PM me. I will also send you a scenario of my World War Three 1946 story and you can give it a try.

To me properly done simulations are so much more constructive than arguing over numbers of tanks or word games in discussing alternative history. This is one that is fairly easily modified (if I can do it you can, believe me).

Here are a few screen shots of my graphics mods.








I personally think someone else should look at a map besides Draco. Just saying...
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  #17  
Old 14 Feb 15, 19:26
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Just ran the scenario using the game above and it is a winning strategy. As the Germans I went for the oil fields and just played defense everywhere else. The Soviets attacked up north and made good progress but I ignored that and took the oil fields then shifted my units to attack north and through Turkey.

Works just barely. Once the oil is gone Moscow isn't far behind. The Africa Corps died but I will get the Suez from Turkey I'm pretty sure. Very fun scenario.
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  #18  
Old 19 Feb 15, 11:24
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Originally Posted by hairog View Post

To me properly done simulations are so much more constructive than arguing over numbers of tanks or word games in discussing alternative history.
That is the problem: there are almost no properly done simulations.

Most of them give the Axis (especially Germany) too many advantages in order to come close to the early war historical results and make it an interesting game. Most of them completely ignore some of Germany's weaknesses and Allied advantages.

Clearly the game you just played ignores most logistical issues.
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  #19  
Old 19 Feb 15, 18:29
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Turkey in the axis represents an enormous advantage, for it provides an army, navy and air force in a good location to fight the USSR and Britain. Turkey can provide the axis shipping access to the Black Sea & can expel the British from Cyprus (so they cannot bomb Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey) & attack the British in Jordan, Palestine & Egypt.

At the Critical time in early 1942 Rommel received few tanks, planes, men, etc, because almost everthing was going to Kleist, Hoth and Paulus, who experienced heavy losses in their isolated thrusts against strong Soviet forces. In this scenario Hitler is sending those 3 forces together to the Caucasus, against a weak force and defending a narrow front between the 2 seas. So Hitler can send more forces and Mussolini can send 2 of the divisions he sent to the USSR to Libya instead. A large number of Ju 52 and 87, Bf 109, etc, can be used in Libya and Egypt, instead of in Stalingrad. Fuel, troops, etc, from Turkey can be shipped to Libya to help Rommel, while the British have to divert forces to fight the axis in east Egypt also.

Without fuel & L-L from the Caucasus and Iran, the USSR depends mostly on supplies through Vladivostok, which in early 1942 flowed slowly to Moscow, so Zhukov's Rzhev offensive goes even worse. Once the oil fields are captured tanks and troops can be shipped across the Black Sea to continue the offensive on Moscow.

Stalingrad is intact and produces tanks, but with little fuel and few American trucks, radios, telephones, AAA, explosives and supplies and against German air superiority, they are little use.

Germany lost a lot of men, tanks, planes, guns, etc, without any gains at all in Stalingrad and the Caucasus. It doesn't take a silly simulation to realize that if Germany losses fewer resources and gains invaluable assets, it will be much better off.
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  #20  
Old 20 Feb 15, 02:28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AdrianE View Post
That is the problem: there are almost no properly done simulations.

Most of them give the Axis (especially Germany) too many advantages in order to come close to the early war historical results and make it an interesting game. Most of them completely ignore some of Germany's weaknesses and Allied advantages.

Clearly the game you just played ignores most logistical issues.
Clearly it doesn't. You know not where of you speak. I'm making 50 miles a month in the mountains of Turkey at most with an armored army. The farther you get away from a railroad or a city that is connected to rail the weaker your unit becomes. Luckily the enemy has the same constraints.

I tried putting 3 armored corps in N. Africa but the Brits kept sinking my convoys and they dwindled and were wiped out by 1943. Sound familiar? This game actually does simulate some things very well . The naval needs lots of work and there is no interdiction by tactical bombers which to me is a must. Other than that it's been fun.




August 1943. Still haven't taken Istanbul and my back door is wide open for the US or GB to cause mischief. I've taken Moscow just because they ran out of oil and lend lease. Just as predicted. I have not gotten any increase in oil yet as you have to conquer the whole of the Soviet Union before you get 100% of the resources.

My armies are worn to the nub and I have no cash to spare but neither do the Soviets.

Last edited by hairog; 20 Feb 15 at 02:44..
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  #21  
Old 20 Feb 15, 11:43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hairog View Post
I've taken Moscow just because they ran out of oil and lend lease.
And you claim that the game handles logistics well. It clearly doesn't.
The Soviet Union had more oil production outside of the Caucasus than the entire European Axis. Losing the Caucasus brings Soviet oil production to on par with the Axis. It would not have crippled them. Plus they have several years of oil production stockpiled.

The Axis taking the Caucusas also does not stop lend lease. It probably cuts it somewhat from the Persian sources. Even then significant quantities don't flow through the Persian gulf until 1943. Plus "Britain's War Machine" by Edgerton shows a map with a Persia - Turkmenistan railway used for Lend lease deliveries.

Check this page for a breakdown of routes and tonnages and dates.
http://www.o5m6.de/Routes.html

Your "simulation" clearly fails to account for these allied advantages. Thus any and all conclusions you attempt to draw from it are invalid.

Most WWII grand strategy games pander to the idea that the Axis could have done better than they did, rather than the reality that they were extremely lucky to get as far as they did.

If your game actually handled logistics well a resurgent Red Army would be smashing the front wide open and driving for Rostov, cutting off your armies in Turkey and winning the war by 1944.
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  #22  
Old 20 Feb 15, 14:41
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AdrianE View Post
And you claim that the game handles logistics well. It clearly doesn't.
The Soviet Union had more oil production outside of the Caucasus than the entire European Axis. Losing the Caucasus brings Soviet oil production to on par with the Axis. It would not have crippled them. Plus they have several years of oil production stockpiled.
Really, I would like to hear more about this. Where were these oil production facilities located exactly, that dwarfed Baku, Tbilisi, Grozny, Rostov-on-Don? Where was all this surplus oil stored? Why was the US sending petroleum products to them if they had this huge stockpile?

So your premise is that losing the oil production and southern ice free route for Lend Lease is no problem, Business as usual?

Quote:
Your "simulation" clearly fails to account for these allied advantages. Thus any and all conclusions you attempt to draw from it are invalid.
Well it's not my simulation and it would be very easy to mod it to reflect your unusual premise about the oil production facilities and stock piled reserves. As I said I would love to hear more about them.

Quote:
Most WWII grand strategy games pander to the idea that the Axis could have done better than they did, rather than the reality that they were extremely lucky to get as far as they did.
So your premise on this one is that there are some really stupid...in fact millions of stupid software designers, amateur historians, professional historians, writers, military strategists etc. who don't know or have access to your information, or totally ignored your the facts that are readily available or that they've all been hornswaggled and possibly lied to? That you are one of the only ones who knows this information? Well if so, please share your sources.

Quote:
If your game actually handled logistics well a resurgent Red Army would be smashing the front wide open and driving for Rostov, cutting off your armies in Turkey and winning the war by 1944.
The game can be easily modified if this is indeed the case. Please make the case for us. Why would the Soviet army be resurgent? Even a loss of this minuscule amount of oil production would hurt them. Stalingrad would not have happened thus saving the 6th Army. There would have been no psychological boost from Stalingrad as well. How would losing what ever percentage of your oil production facilities to an enemy who is starving for oil give you a boost and not in fact them?

The only thing this strategy changes is there is no Stalingrad. How is that a bad thing for the Germans?
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  #23  
Old 20 Feb 15, 16:36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hairog View Post
Really, I would like to hear more about this. Where were these oil production facilities located exactly, that dwarfed Baku, Tbilisi, Grozny, Rostov-on-Don? Where was all this surplus oil stored? Why was the US sending petroleum products to them if they had this huge stockpile??
I think you are missing the point.

10s with google would give your answer:

http://ww2-weapons.com/History/Produ...-materials.htm

1941: USSR 33 million metric tons and Germany 5.7 million metric tons and Romania 5.5.
1944: USSR 18.2, Germany 5.6, Romania 3.5

Now Baku was around 25 million metric tons per year in 1941 (a record never met again) . That still leaves 8 million metric tons a year of other production in other places. For my reading they had oil in Sakhalin, Takijistan and other places. Basically many smaller fields. I have seen a great table on the web but I can't find it anymore

Soviet stockpiling of oil is mentioned in the Dunn work you quoted (IIRC). You should read that thoroughly as it is a great resource.

Now if Germany can run a air/naval/ground war on 3 fronts with 9.1 to 10.2 million tons of oil then the Soviet Union could clearly run a air/ground war on 1 front with 8 million tons of oil.

The game designers of your game either didn't know or didn't care to model the loss of the Baku area realistically.

Quote:
Originally Posted by hairog View Post
So your premise is that losing the oil production and southern ice free route for Lend Lease is no problem, Business as usual?
My premise is that the designers of your game have vastly over stated the effects losing Baku on the Soviet Union's ability to wage war. Their model is wrong and any conclusions based on that model are subsequently wrong.

BTW - look at the delivery dates to the far east for lend lease: you'll find ice is completely irrelevant. ie 122,375 tons shipped in December 1942 to the Soviet far east
versus 30,288 in June 1942.
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  #24  
Old 20 Feb 15, 17:23
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So losing 75% of their oil production and their access to a warm water route for Lend Lease would make them stronger?

You're suggesting that they could have easily done without 75% of their oil production because Germany lost the war with 20% more?

We would need to know where the oil was stockpiled. If it was in Baku then there is a problem.

I didn't read Dunn looking for oil production and stockpiling and do not have access to it anymore. I thought that the importance of Baku etc. was a well known historical fact.

If you are not aware, I'm in a long running discussion with T.A. among others on how the Soviets were fairly self sufficient and this actually adds to my point of view so I am very interested in your viewpoint and source of knowlege.

BTW - why have the Russians been fighting and dying for centuries to acquire a warm water port if it wasn't really that important?
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  #25  
Old 20 Feb 15, 18:43
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Again you are missing the point:

Losing the Caucasus would have hurt the Soviet Union. It would not have been fatal like your game depicts.
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  #26  
Old 20 Feb 15, 18:58
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It wasn't fatal all by itself exactly as the simulation depicts. If I had taken Baku etc. and just sat on my hands then it would not have been that big of a deal. Other things had to happen. The Soviets had to be taken by surprise and had the majority of their forces up north, the Germans had to strip their forces up north and send them south while still maintaining a coherent defensive line, etc. But it was THE major cause and I would argue would have been THE major cause and could have led to an Axis win. Just like the simulation depicts and historians theorize.

Taking the oil production facilities around the Black Sea would have reduced significantly the Soviets ability to continue the fight and you have not come close to disputing that theory. Too bad actually I could have used it in my other discussions.
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