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Go Back   Armchair General and HistoryNet >> The Best Forums in History > Current Events > Russia, Central Asia, and The Caucasus > Ukrainian Crisis

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Ukrainian Crisis Discuss the unfolding crisis in Ukraine.

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  #91  
Old 20 Jun 17, 08:07
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Of interest. About the declaration of martial law in Ukraine as a prelude to large scale hostilities, and small but significant tactical advances in the south near Mariupol, again, not a big deal in itself, but a portent of things to come.

Google trans is quite readable in English

http://antimaydan.info/2017/06/vs_dn...ostochnyh.html

EDIT:

Also small advance in Lugansk front. Very surprising. The Ukrainians were grabbing up no-man's-land all this time and bringing closer their positions to the Novorussians in their buildup to a larger clash. Perhaps they are finding their new positions untenable and falling back.

18th of June, 2017. Lugansk People’s Republic, Novorossiya.

The LPR people’s militia has taken a number of positions abandoned by the Ukrainian forces, the official representative of the LPR people’s militia Andrei Marochko told the Lugansk Information Center.

“The morale of Ukrainian soldiers fighting in the so-called ATO zone has been decreasing. In some areas near the contact line, Ukrainian servicemen abandoned their positions. As a result of it, LPR servicemen captured a few hundred meters of the new territory without firing a shot. Since the beginning of the year, we have advanced 300 meters near the city of Popasnaya, advanced 200 meters near the city of Zolotoye, advanced 250 meters near the village of Katerinovka and taken Ukrainian positions there. All attempts by the Kiev forces to seize our territory have failed. The clashes near Zhelobok and Svetlodarsk, where the enemy retreated after suffering heavy losses, prove it,” – Marochko said.

Tip:

Google "antimaydan.info" and check the option "translate this page". Much better than copy paste chunks of text into Google translator URL. Does not work for blogs like Chervonets, alas

Last edited by von Junzt; 20 Jun 17 at 15:01..
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  #92  
Old 20 Jun 17, 12:05
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Even more interesting, a good article translated to English from an analyst that is native from Donbass and exiled in Russia and his impressions on his visit to the front. The articles are excellent, even coming from a civilian, guess the author background as an historian has given him some knowledge of military matters.

http://www.fort-russ.com/2017/06/war...k-peoples.html

I will quote excerpts with my observations and highlights:

Quote:
To start, I believe that the average American reader is probably unaware of the fact that approximately half of the former Lugansk region of Ukraine belonged to the Don Cossack region before the revolution of 1917, i.e., it was Russian Cossack territory.
I hadn't given thought to this, it would explain why there were so many (relatively speaking) Cossack volunteers, and why they are concentrated in Lugansk. Their performance in battle might have been mediocre, but at least they showed up, wich cannot be said of the bulk of Russian society.


Quote:
Only in 1922 were these lands gifted to the Soviet Ukrainian government by Lenin. While anything having to do with the “totalitarian Soviet Union” is taboo in contemporary Ukraine, Ukrainian authorities have no desire to relinquish those territorial gains acquired by Ukraine during the Soviet period including Crimea, Donbass, all of Novorossiya, Galicia, Volynia, Bukovina, and Transcarpathia (Carpathian Rus), i.e., more than half of modern Ukraine’s territory. This fact alone serves to show that calling the Donbass militias “separatists” is incorrect. The real separatist is Ukraine itself which established itself as a "nation" only within the framework of the USSR.

Quote:
the majority of LPR soldiers are from the territories that are currently under Ukrainian occupation. They still have family on the other side, and these soldiers live in constant fear of reprisals against their families if their faces and names are revealed.
There may be some exageration in this even accounting for the smaller size of the LPR forces, and logically, most manpower should come from the capital, Lugansk, but this makes sense, the most motivated fighters are those that lived in now occupied territory and joined the militia because else they would be either imprisoned or conscripted into the Ukrainian and forced to fight against their own people. After this happened in Slavyansk when taken by the Ukrainians, every young man that had wavered fled the advancing Ukrainian army and either ran away to Russia or joined the militia.

This is confirmed by journalists reports from the other side, where Ukrainian troops bitterly comment that they aren't received as liberators but occupiers, and that every household has their sons fighting for the rebels.



All of the servicemen with whom I talked were natives, many of them from the Lugansk region’s territories currently occupied by Ukraine. I didn’t see a single member of the Russian army which is allegedly fighting under the guise of militiamen. My friends from Lugansk did tell me, however, of volunteers from Russia who came to join the militia in 2014, but there was no opportunity to visit with them.

Quote:
All of the servicemen with whom I talked were natives, many of them from the Lugansk region’s territories currently occupied by Ukraine. I didn’t see a single member of the Russian army which is allegedly fighting under the guise of militiamen. My friends from Lugansk did tell me, however, of volunteers from Russia who came to join the militia in 2014, but there was no opportunity to visit with them.

I am in touch via facebook with Lena Sorokina, a militia woman that used to live in Spain, and that fights with the militia in Lugansk, as his husband is a mid-level officer in the Prizrak brigade. I have some confidence with her, and I do believe her when she says she has never seen around the mythical "tourists". She acknowledges they receive donations and aid from Russian civil society, in addition to the aid convoys sent by the Russian government, and that volunteers did arrive but alas, too few in number.


Contrary to Popov article, she says the morale is not so good. They are fed up with war, and wish the ukrops would attack or the order was given to go on the offensive to get over it. But there's a grim resolution to never surrender.


I was saddened to not hear any evidence of Russian military aid, either from Russian troops "the north wind", or military supplies, the "military surplus store", but is possible that my contact is telling me the truth and what she knows about.

I have reasons to believe the rebel forces are in essence two very different forces. A territorial defense force, wich consists of the militia groups that have been cajoled or coaxed to form sort of a regular army, removing militia commanders that do not comply and as for the rank and file, a rag tag force of volunteers of varying ages that they are barely equipped with whatever they can scrounge or receive as aid. This is the force that holds the frontlines at present.

Further back there are the maneuver forces, the tanks and mechanized infantry battallions equipped with armored vehicles, and the artillery reserves, organized on the soviet model. This is the force that would counterattack to blunt a Ukrainian breakthrough or that would go on the offensive. These forces would very likely be composed of the better and younger recruits, built from the ground up. I can only guess that if there are Russian military advisors and instructors, these are embedded in this force. And not neccessarily, the troops could be trained in secret in Russia and rotated in and out, without any Russian soldier ever crossing the border. That would account for the fact that nobody in the militia, wether native or foreign volunteer, has ever met a Russian soldier.


There is also speculation that while the heads of the republics exercise authority, though deferring to Moscow wishes, the Novorussian army or the maneuver force at least, would be commanded by Russian retired officers, a few generals and corresponding staff, the speakers for the republics, like Basurin and Marochko being that, just speakes with no real command. I cannot prove this, but is a logical explanation and it has been flouted around since Strelkov resignation. In exchange for freezing the conflict and submitting to Moscow authority, the Russian army is providing if not the muscle, at least the brains and the eyesight (intelligence), that and the food convoys are the leverage with wich the Kremlin controlled the uprising. As the republics build their state structures and manage to recover the economy, once the prospect of union with Russia faded, and they have to fend themselves, they will become increasingly autonomous and not so dependent on Moscow wishes and goodwill.



There's more to be commented on, but at a later time.
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  #93  
Old 21 Jun 17, 07:48
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Normally I wouldn't share anything from The Saker site, as the site owner is a wacko at best, and a con man at worst.

But the site does have some good reports.

This one is from a certain Auslander, an American living in Crimea. I have corresponded wit him and hope to meet with him this summer when I go back there. I have my reservations but what he reports is genuine. Besides, nothing that we do not know.


Exorcist, if you are reading this, would you please stop making excuses for the Ukrainian war criminals? This is a real war, and the Ukrops are systematically aiming at the civilians.

Nobody is killing Ukrainians in Donbass civilians. All the civilian casualties are among the Russian population. Get this, once and for all, as a grandmother at occupied Avdeyevka yelled at a Ukrainian journalist:

"We are not pro-Russians! We are Russians"

Ukraine escalates an armed conflict in Donbass
7974 Views June 07, 2017 32 Comments
Ukraine escalates an armed conflict in Donbass

by Auslander

The Situation in Gorlovka, DNR

A few days ago we had some guests. One guest brought a friend with them, a person from a village near Gorlovka. At first the person was quite reticent about speaking of anything in front of me when the person understood very quickly that I was not Russian, I was from ‘the other side’. However, after I spoke to this person with VCO translating so nothing was misunderstood this person understood from my specific questions about certain areas in and around Gorlovka that I knew more of the real situation than most.

To be blunt the situation in and around Gorlovka is very bad. All day and all night, every day and every night, the Ukrainian artillery fires at random but specific targets. This fire is 24/7, day in and day out. The fire is not a true barrage of artillery like an all out attack would have, it is a shot or two at one village, than 10 or 20 or 30 minutes later a shot or two at another village near or far from the first target. This random artillery fire goes on from Sanzharivka on the extreme east of the Donetsk Peoples Republic (hereafter referred to as DNR) lines at the Lughansk Peoples Republic (hereafter referred to as LNR) western border all the way down to Sakhanka within 3 km. of the Sea of Azov coast. Look at this map: and you will see how long that line is and you will see how thin the DNR lines are compared to the Ukrainian lines

more:


https://thesaker.is/ukraine-escalate...ct-on-donbass/
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Old Yesterday, 08:43
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Opinion: Donbass will become Russian in less than a year

(google trans. I just had to tidy up a couple phrases)

http://voicesevas.ru/news/32401-mnen...herez-god.html


As the vice speaker of the Senate Yuri Vorobyov said at a meeting of the Committee for Public Support of Residents of Southeast of Ukraine, in March the Federation Council will hold a conference on the fate of the Russian cultural space, where the issue of the existence of the People's Democratic Republic of Donetsk and the People's Republic of Lugansk will be raised. "The path to the rapprochement of the peoples of Russia and Ukraine will be long and difficult," the senator said, but immediately made the reservation: "I'm not talking about the Donbass." Well, the question of the status of Donetsk and Lugansk will be decided before the election of the Russian president?

Actually, Vorobiev has not discovered America: the well-informed Kiev experts close to the government, in particular, political scientists Vadim Karasev and Andrei Yermolayev, repeatedly informed the Kremlin about the final definition of the people's republics before the presidential elections. At the same time, Karasev believes that Moscow "will not annex the Donbass, but recognizes its independent status." In turn, Ermolaev believes that the final decision in the Kremlin has not yet been accepted, and the republics are equally likely to "reunite with Russia" and recognize their independence from Ukraine. But, one way or another, the republics will be in suspense in the worst case until the spring of next year.

In May, the Director of the Pentagon's Military Intelligence Agency, General Vincent Stewart, reporting to the Senate Armed Services Committee, acknowledged that Russia would not allow Ukraine to solve the Donbas problem by force, and for that, most likely, would recognize the independence of the People's Republics. Although, according to General Stewart, to annex the Donbass on the example of Crimea, President Vladimir Putin, most likely, he will not risk not to aggravate relations with the West.

In turn, Russian experts agree that the Donbass problem will be resolved in the coming months. Liberal political scientist Alexander Morozov believes that "it is already unprofitable to" keep the disputed territories in suspended status to the Kremlin ", and so, shortly before the elections (which, by the way, will be held on the eve of the reunion of the Crimea with Russia), Lugansk and Donetsk are waiting for" reunification in the Crimean pattern ". And political analyst Mikhail Remizov (advisor to Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin) is convinced: "It is very important to show to the inhabitants of Ukraine, those who really have given everything in the struggle, that Russia will eventually come to the rescue." So, there must be a reunion. In the worst case, recognition of independence.

Alexander Artishchenko


My comment: Inevitable. As Kiev will never abide by Minsk agreements and will go on to martial law and renewed full scale hostilities. Preserving a united federal Ukraine is impossible without overthrowing the regime in Kiev and reversing the brainwashing, wich would recquire dictatorial measures to stomp the West. Partition of the country is unavoidable.

Last edited by von Junzt; Yesterday at 13:53..
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