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Go Back   Armchair General and HistoryNet >> The Best Forums in History > Current Events > Russia, Central Asia, and The Caucasus > Ukrainian Crisis

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Ukrainian Crisis Discuss the unfolding crisis in Ukraine.

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  #1  
Old 12 Aug 15, 17:54
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Russians becoming less concerned with situation in Ukraine

According to an opinion poll published by a Russian sociological group "Levada-center" Russian citizens are gradually losings interest in Ukrainian events. 51% said that they are following them with attention in poll conducted this July, while the peak value was 64% in the last July. 49% said they don't follow or follow with little attention while 34% did that are year ago. Similar stats were reported in the previous months.
Results also indicates that fewer people believe in prospects of prolonged civil war in Ukraine in July 2015 than a year ago (70 vs 84%), Ukrainian-Russian war (51 vs 68%) and a third world war triggered by the Ukrainian crisis (43 vs 54%).
Fewer people approve Russian volunteers' participation in the Ukrainian hostilities (51% in July 2015 vs 64% in June 2014) and fewer would approve Russian regular army taking part (33% vs 45% in November 2014).
On the other hand support of Crimea's takeover remains practically unchanged considering the poll's error margins (84% versus the peak value of 90% in May 2014).
The poll was conducted on 17-20 July 2015, statistical error was smaller than 3.4%. Original (in Russian):
http://www.levada.ru/28-07-2015/soby...chastie-rossii
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  #2  
Old 13 Aug 15, 16:48
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Artyom_A View Post
According to an opinion poll published by a Russian sociological group "Levada-center" Russian citizens are gradually losings interest in Ukrainian events. 51% said that they are following them with attention in poll conducted this July, while the peak value was 64% in the last July. 49% said they don't follow or follow with little attention while 34% did that are year ago. Similar stats were reported in the previous months.
Results also indicates that fewer people believe in prospects of prolonged civil war in Ukraine in July 2015 than a year ago (70 vs 84%), Ukrainian-Russian war (51 vs 68%) and a third world war triggered by the Ukrainian crisis (43 vs 54%).
Fewer people approve Russian volunteers' participation in the Ukrainian hostilities (51% in July 2015 vs 64% in June 2014) and fewer would approve Russian regular army taking part (33% vs 45% in November 2014).
On the other hand support of Crimea's takeover remains practically unchanged considering the poll's error margins (84% versus the peak value of 90% in May 2014).
The poll was conducted on 17-20 July 2015, statistical error was smaller than 3.4%. Original (in Russian):
http://www.levada.ru/28-07-2015/soby...chastie-rossii
This all makes sense. As time goes on and the situation 'stabilizes' people's interest wanes. Audiences like a riot but not the cleanup. Less approval for the fighters probably has myriad influences, from economic to the lessening concern about a wider military conflict. And the continued support for the annexation should hold strong for a while: popular at home, popular in Crimea, and almost bloodless.

Without a shock to the system I expect these trends to continue.
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  #3  
Old 14 Aug 15, 06:07
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Same can be witnessed here at the ACG, most of the newcomers that came in last year on account of the Ukrainian crisis are gone again,

activity on the Russia board has returned to "pre-war" levels, more or less.
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  #4  
Old 15 Aug 15, 08:19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Daemon of Decay View Post
This all makes sense. As time goes on and the situation 'stabilizes' people's interest wanes.
Yep. Still there is a strong involvement as the poll testifies.
Curiously similar polls registered some decline in negative feelings toward USA and European Union compared with peak values this winter, but again well above the pre-crisis levels:
http://www.levada.ru/29-07-2015/v-ro...navisti-k-ssha
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  #5  
Old 15 Aug 15, 14:27
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Most people have a limited attention span and are only interested in the emotional shock, rather than facts and analysis. Stories have a short shelf life. The media outlets replaced the Ukraine with Jenner, and then replaced Jenner with Trump. Gotta keep shocking people to sell the product.
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Old 17 Aug 15, 15:55
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In contrast to Ukranians who have not lost interest, and according to recent polls now more than ever support joining NATO. Putin's plan to maintain his sphere of influence in Ukraine is backfiring:

The poll showed that 64% of those who would go to the polling stations in a referendum would vote for joining NATO, while 28.5% would be against it.

http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/284176.html
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Old 17 Aug 15, 16:42
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He, on old anecdote:
Once one Jew was asked how he is going to solve his money problems.
- I've got an excellent plan", he answered - I have my daughter little Sarah and I want her to marry Rothschild.
- But is it possible?
- Yes, the deal is half-done, I mean Sarah is ready. All is left is to get Rothschild to agree.
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Old 17 Aug 15, 17:35
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Exactly why the world is mystified about how Russians can be convinced that Putin's military actions are necessary to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO.

NATO does not want or need Ukraine in the alliance. Yet this has been used as an excuse to invade and annex Crimea and attempt to do the same in Donbas leading to a tremendous loss of life. Apparently it was unnecessary according to your anecdote.


Also from the same survey Ukrainians that thought an alliance with Russia was important:

The number of those supporting a military alliance with Russia and other former Soviet republics has dramatically dropped to 8% from 26%.


Looks like the boy genius may have made a miscalculation - but then again the lives of the civilians in Donbas or even the numbers of cargo-200's never really were what concerned Putin.
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Old 17 Aug 15, 18:42
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Quote:
Exactly
Why are you posting all that then?
Ukraine in the present moment unlike Russia or USA is not a subject of politics but an object, little depends on their opinion.
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Old 17 Aug 15, 20:05
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Artyom_A View Post
Why are you posting all that then?
Ukraine in the present moment unlike Russia or USA is not a subject of politics but an object, little depends on their opinion.
I disagree, Russia has fully alienated Ukraine. Without Ukraine Russia is a much weaker country. Russia has instilled nationalism in Ukraine that will bleed Russia's army and economy in this war; plus NATO gets combat experience without having to fight.

Every Ukranian soldier that gets trained by the U.S. Paratroopers or NATO gives a lot of info to the trainers about fighting the Russian army.

Thank you Putin!
http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...n-rattled.html
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Old 18 Aug 15, 04:32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shogun View Post
Russia has instilled nationalism in Ukraine that will bleed Russia's army and economy in this war
The real war between Ukraine and Russia will end in several days with Russian tanks entering Kiev and everybody understands it. Thus far Ukrainian Army was mostly fighting poorly organized militia of yesterdays auto mechanics and mall security and yet managed to get their ass kicked.
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Old 18 Aug 15, 04:56
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shogun View Post
I disagree, Russia has fully alienated Ukraine. Without Ukraine Russia is a much weaker country. Russia has instilled nationalism in Ukraine that will bleed Russia's army and economy in this war; plus NATO gets combat experience without having to fight.

Every Ukranian soldier that gets trained by the U.S. Paratroopers or NATO gives a lot of info to the trainers about fighting the Russian army.

Thank you Putin!
http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...n-rattled.html
You might be over-estimating Ukraine's worth. Some might blindly believe that Crimea (and to a lesser extent Ukraine) possess great strategic and economic worth, but they truly don't.

Russia is not a "much weaker country" without Ukraine. Like those posters who believe the fantasy that NATO wants to invade Russia for their resources, the reality just doesn't match up.

Russia already got the lion's share of what it could truly use from Ukraine with a nearly bloodless invasion and annexation. Putin scored lots of political points at home and demonstrated his willingness to act in his neighborhood.

His gains from Ukraine by not taking those steps are minor, as the new Ukrainian government was not going to join his customs organization anyway. He saw an opportunity to gain something from a deterorating situation and grabbed it.

Now, Russia doesn't have much to lose from having an angry Ukraine on their border. The only real cost comes from EU and NATO states and their sanctions. Taking those out of the equation and just looking at Ukraine, and Russia is not significantly weaker.
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Old 18 Aug 15, 10:04
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I would dare believing that the west also has lost interest. How many planes with Diplomats have landed at Borispol in the last months?
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Old 18 Aug 15, 10:13
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West either lost all interest or switched it to Russia. Ukraine and Donbass? No one has cared since the conflict started.
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Old 18 Aug 15, 11:34
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Never underestimate Ukraine. Ukraine is game to YOU?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzLtF_PxbYw

Aside from the humor Ukraine plays a very important strategic, economic and psychological (what you allude to as most imortant) role for Russians.


Economic:
Prior to this conflict and devaluation of the Hryvnia and the Ruble, Ukraine made up 5.5% of Russia's imports AND exports. That's like Germany and Japan for the United States. That's not insignificant from a trade perspecitve. Considering what products are traded it is also of strategic importance such as military equipment, food and machinery. Economic and strategic are linked in that a significant portion of all of Russia's exports (Oil and Gas) transit across Ukraine. One can argue that Russia is more important to Ukraine as a trading partner than vice versa but a significant economic relationship exists that does span into the strategic sphere.

https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/rus/

Strategic
Geography, influence on eastern Europe and post-Soviet space, overthrow of a Russian backed Kleptocracy similar to Russia's authoritarian government, NATO, gas transit hub, access to the Black Sea. The strategic list goes on and on. Offsetting this is the large cost Russia would pay to occupy all of Ukraine. Look how expensive it's been just invading and occupying Crimea and a part of Donbas (Nemtsov report).

http://money.cnn.com/2015/04/21/news...nctions-price/

http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine.../25276457.html

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine...ence-1.2544255

Psychologicaly

Russia is seen as the neighborhood toughguy, losing Ukraine from its sphere of influence hurts. Tough talk and bluster towards the west helps Putin's popularity at home.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics...vladimir-putin

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/19/wo...thed.html?_r=0


For NATO or the US specifically, bolstering Ukraine is an easy and cheap way to offset Putin's Soviet era nationalistic goals. The fact that the Ukrainian people overthrew a kleptocracy that looks very similar to the Russian government is also a great model for what will happen in Russia when the nationalistic distraction and the poverty from recession set in. Putin has every reason to be concearned about what's happening in Ukraine because focusing the populace outward to an imaginary enemy helps prevent Maidan from spreading to Moscow.

http://cambridgeglobalist.org/2015/0...ussian-maidan/
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