HistoryNet.com RSS
ArmchairGeneral.com RSS

HistoryNet.com Articles
America's Civil War
American History
Aviation History
Civil War Times
MHQ
Military History
Vietnam
Wild West
World War II

ACG Online
ACG Magazine
Stuff We Like
War College
History News
Tactics 101
Carlo D'Este
Books

ACG Gaming
Boardgames
PC Game Reviews

ACG Network
Contact Us
Our Newsletter
Meet Our Staff
Advertise With Us

Sites We Support
HistoryNet.com
StreamHistory.com
Once A Marine
The Art of Battle
Game Squad
Mil. History Podcast
Russian Army - WW2
Achtung Panzer!
Mil History Online

Go Back   Armchair General and HistoryNet >> The Best Forums in History > Military/History Related Hobbies > Alternate Timelines > Xtreme Alternate History

Notices and Announcements

Xtreme Alternate History Alternatives to History with No Holds Barred!

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #106  
Old 29 Jun 15, 23:08
Nebfer's Avatar
Nebfer Nebfer is offline
Captain
United_States
ACG 5 Year Service Ribbon 
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Titusville
Posts: 784
Nebfer is on the path to success [1-99] Nebfer is on the path to success [1-99] Nebfer is on the path to success [1-99] Nebfer is on the path to success [1-99] Nebfer is on the path to success [1-99] Nebfer is on the path to success [1-99]
Well lets see, in the historical attack
40 torpedoes used, 19 hit
More than 110 Bombers attacked the ships, each having a 250kg or 800kg bomb, less than 30 hits are noted.

With many of the best pilots the IJN could muster (a fair number had over 800 hours flying), they only achieved in a surprise attack of ~50% hit rates with torpedoes, and at best 25% hit rates with level and dive bombers.

The Attack on Force Z, that sunk the two British battleships had dropped some 50 torpedoes and only had about 8 hits, roughly 16%, the bomb attack was also fairly pore

Midway
Yorktown
3 bomb hits from 18 used ~17%
2 torpedoes from 10 used ~20%
Result sunk by submarine, as it was being towed back to base

Coral sea
18 torpedo bombers, 2 hits on Lexington ~11% (and this is with a text book pincer maneuver to), 4 of the bombers attacked Yorktown, no hits
33 Dive bombers only got 3 hits or 9%
Reply With Quote
  #107  
Old 29 Jun 15, 23:42
T. A. Gardner's Avatar
T. A. Gardner T. A. Gardner is offline
General of the Forums
United_States
ACG 5 Year Service Ribbon Most Significant/Influential Tank Campaign Most Significant/Influential Fighter Campaign Most Significant/Influential Multi-Role Aircraft C 
Tournament 1 and preceding Mini-Polls Greatest/Best Tank of WW2 Campaign 
 
Real Name: T. A. Gardner
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Phoenix
Posts: 35,948
T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+]
T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+]
Here's a summary of long lance torpedo results.

http://www.navweaps.com/index_tech/tech-067.htm

Japanese torpedoes never beat about 13% hits and averaged just over 6%. The US would have to get closer for their torpedoes but they would get similar results. In fact, if they could get in range they might do a bit better as their torpedo fire controls are much better than those of the Japanese.
But, the main US weapon is the gun and there the US is several times better at a gun battle than the Japanese are.

The IJN sitting off Oahu is going to get hammered. They may deal a serious blow to the Pacific Fleet but the US is going to sink or cripple (which will equal a loss too) many of their ships with aircraft and gunfire.

If you look at how the ships are moored in Pearl Harbor the US DD and cruisers are not going to get torpedoed for the most part. The DD are in shallower parts of the harbor nested with tenders. The cruisers are mostly docked in the yard and totally immune to torpedoes.
The BB that are inboard are immune. The auxiliary fleet is up the West Loch and immune to torpedoes.

I doubt the Japanese can do much better than the original results with torpedoes.

Last edited by T. A. Gardner; 29 Jun 15 at 23:47..
Reply With Quote
  #108  
Old 30 Jun 15, 01:40
Nebfer's Avatar
Nebfer Nebfer is offline
Captain
United_States
ACG 5 Year Service Ribbon 
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Titusville
Posts: 784
Nebfer is on the path to success [1-99] Nebfer is on the path to success [1-99] Nebfer is on the path to success [1-99] Nebfer is on the path to success [1-99] Nebfer is on the path to success [1-99] Nebfer is on the path to success [1-99]
Quote:
Originally Posted by T. A. Gardner View Post
Here's a summary of long lance torpedo results.

http://www.navweaps.com/index_tech/tech-067.htm

Japanese torpedoes never beat about 13% hits and averaged just over 6%. The US would have to get closer for their torpedoes but they would get similar results. In fact, if they could get in range they might do a bit better as their torpedo fire controls are much better than those of the Japanese.
But, the main US weapon is the gun and there the US is several times better at a gun battle than the Japanese are.

The IJN sitting off Oahu is going to get hammered. They may deal a serious blow to the Pacific Fleet but the US is going to sink or cripple (which will equal a loss too) many of their ships with aircraft and gunfire.

If you look at how the ships are moored in Pearl Harbor the US DD and cruisers are not going to get torpedoed for the most part. The DD are in shallower parts of the harbor nested with tenders. The cruisers are mostly docked in the yard and totally immune to torpedoes.
The BB that are inboard are immune. The auxiliary fleet is up the West Loch and immune to torpedoes.

I doubt the Japanese can do much better than the original results with torpedoes.
Well if you consider that per his op and his "plan of attack" the 1st wave is to be done on the evening of the 6th, (this means that he has to leave slightly earlier than Nov. 26th), now the OP states they will take off at dusk, but he later says they will arrive at Dusk. With the intent to wipe out the fighters, with 200 planes at best hes going to pull an historical. The Big Problem is that they historically rejected this kind of attack as they had few night qualified crews, but he thinks he can find time to qualify them in night flying in the ~10ish weeks he has to train his crews, some of which where not yet qualified for carrier ops IIRC. the 5th Carrier Div is still training it's crews I believe as well, and played a big role in not doing the night attack (whats the point of sending 6 carriers to do a night attack when only 4 can, and you need 6 carriers to do the damage required). In any case I doubt that a "dusk" attack is going to be as effective despite the ~50% increase in aircraft as soon as they arrive the light will be readily fading. and it's going to be a lot more harder to do damage assessment in the dark, not to mention more difficulty's in aiming.

His 2nd wave is largely fantasy, using 100 torpedoes would mean that he's using all of his torpedoes in one strike, never mind the fact that he dose not have the qualified crews for a night attack. Even if he manages to do so, like you said this still leaves a fair number of ships unharmed, half the Battleships are almost immune from torpedo attacks.

3rd wave is impossible, at lest as a torpedo strike as they only had some 100 torpedoes modified for the operation (they did have others on hand but their not modified for use at pearl), and that was a late development as well IIRC. The 5th Division may not of had any as their "Torpedo" bombers where used to drop bombs historically, and interestingly in order to bring 1st and 2nd Carrier divs up to strength and make 5th combat ready they cannibalized 3rd Carrier Divs units and the 11th Air fleets units (11th Air fleet was the primary Training unit).

4th wave is technically doable, but will run into the remaining US fighters and very heavy AA defenses, and still will miss about 4 USN battleships... It will suffer very heavy losses. And unlike Historical the USN fighters will have time to take off and get organized, AFAIK considering 14 US fighters got airborne and shot down roughly 9 planes.


The end result is that it's quite likely that the USN will have
4x BBs (as none of these will be affected by torpedoes, the only weapons stated to used on ships in his attack)
2x CAs
4x CLs
25+ DDs

Sorting from Pearl. Some may get sunk by Subs is true... As this is the US doctrine of the time to leave port if attacked, and theirs roughly 10 hours from the first attack to the 4th one arriving... Theirs actually 4 hours between the 1st and his anti ship attack, so it's quite possible that much of the fleet is leaving or has left port by the time the anti ship strike shows up...

To team up with
2x Carriers
8x CAs
14x DDs
9x DDMS

Edit:
Though their is another issue with the timing of his strikes.
1st wave will take off at around 4pm commence the attack at around 6, and be back to the carriers by about 8:30 (they historically waited about 30 or so minutes to regroup for the return leg). This gives about 1 minute per plane to land in the dark, and then have it brought below, and ready the deck for the next plane, this is unlikely as the IJN did not do deck parks. As a result the 2nd wave will be taking off closer to 11 or 12pm.
Giving the USN more time to escape, as I do believe that the USN when planes start swarming over airbases, will follow procedure and leave the harbor, before they them selves get attacked.

Last edited by Nebfer; 30 Jun 15 at 02:29..
Reply With Quote
  #109  
Old 30 Jun 15, 02:07
Doveton Sturdee's Avatar
Doveton Sturdee Doveton Sturdee is offline
Brigadier General
England
ACG 5 Year Service Ribbon 
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Tewkesbury
Posts: 2,031
Doveton Sturdee is walking in the light [200] Doveton Sturdee is walking in the light [200] Doveton Sturdee is walking in the light [200] Doveton Sturdee is walking in the light [200] Doveton Sturdee is walking in the light [200] Doveton Sturdee is walking in the light [200] Doveton Sturdee is walking in the light [200] Doveton Sturdee is walking in the light [200] Doveton Sturdee is walking in the light [200] Doveton Sturdee is walking in the light [200] Doveton Sturdee is walking in the light [200] Doveton Sturdee is walking in the light [200]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Draco View Post
Doveton, that is the main application of a wolfpack. However, U-boats also coordinated to sink an RN carrier at the opening of the war (a U-boat attacked a cargo ship, which caused the Cvs escort to leave the CV to save the merchant crew and another carrier sank the CV) and operated quite successfully against independent merchant ships on the US coast in the 2nd happy time and capturing ships all along the Atlantic, etc, We only have coordinated attacks on warships and a 1st Japanese happy time in the Pacific.

The US could not assemble convoys along the US coast during the first months of the war for lack of escort ships (despite the huge British, US and Canadian fleets), so there are no convoys or at most a few convoys with ridiculous escorts in the Pacific after the warfleet is lost.

Shipping to Australia, the DEI, etc, is greatly disturbed by subs and raiders from Hawaii and by planes, subs, warships, etc, from New Caledonia and Port Moresby.

On the 10th of January, the German commander orders the invasion of extremely weak Easter Island with a merchant raider carrying some crated planes, AAA, a coastal gun, etc, which becomes a valuable, primitive base for Kawanishis, subs and raiders and allows captured ships from S America with fuel, food, etc, to be partly unloaded much closer to the front, before they continue to Hawaii, New Caledonia, etc,

The stretch Hawaii-Easter island covers a large number of shipping routes, including Panama-Australia, so CLs, subs, Kawanishis, etc, operating between these islands can wreak havoc.
Doveton, that is the main application of a wolfpack

This is a meaningless statement. What is it supposed to mean?

U-boats also coordinated to sink an RN carrier at the opening of the war (a U-boat attacked a cargo ship, which caused the Cvs escort to leave the CV to save the merchant crew and another carrier sank the CV)

This was not a wolf pack operation in any sense of the term. There was no co-ordination, still less any direction from BdU. It was simply fortunes of war.

It is, as I expected, fairly obvious that you know little about the nature of wollf pack operations, and less about how unsuccessful they had been up to the end of 1941.

and operated quite successfully against independent merchant ships on the US coast in the 2nd happy time and capturing ships all along the Atlantic,

Which merchant ships were captured by U-boats during the 2nd Happy Time?

A Wolf Pack operation requires a number of boats to be co-ordinated by BdU against a specific convoy target. The very fact that the successes on the US Atlantic coast were against independent ships demonstrates that these were not wolf pack attacks.

If you choose to use a specific term, it is usually a good idea to find out what it means first. This saves embarrassment all round!

Have you, by the way, bothered to look up how Japanese boats actually performed against merchant shipping in WW2? 184 sinkings in the whole of the war is hardly an impressive total, considering that RN boats achieved over 100 sinkings of merchant vessels in European waters in each of the years 1941 - 1943, when German merchantmen were non existent, & Italian merchantmen few & far between.
Reply With Quote
  #110  
Old 30 Jun 15, 03:55
T. A. Gardner's Avatar
T. A. Gardner T. A. Gardner is offline
General of the Forums
United_States
ACG 5 Year Service Ribbon Most Significant/Influential Tank Campaign Most Significant/Influential Fighter Campaign Most Significant/Influential Multi-Role Aircraft C 
Tournament 1 and preceding Mini-Polls Greatest/Best Tank of WW2 Campaign 
 
Real Name: T. A. Gardner
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Phoenix
Posts: 35,948
T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+]
T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+]
Nebfer, it is really far, far worse for Draco's strike plan.

The first wave arrives around dusk or at night depending on where we're at in the thread. It is to concentrate on attacking airfields and antiaircraft positions.
That means the ships are basically unscathed in that attack.

The next attack (based on the OP and a dusk take off with the first strike arriving around 2000) arrives two hours later.

Every ship in Pearl Harbor that can get underway has gotten under way. That means all of the battleships are now at sea and likely steaming south- southeast or southwest. All of the DD and cruisers are with them and they have formed up a screened formation.
And, yes, all of the ships could have gotten up steam and gotten underway in under two hours. Nevada managed to do it in under an hour.
The ships are preceded by the two duty DD and probably 2 or 3 other DD that are now aggressively looking for subs off the harbor entrance. That pretty much ends some sort of submarine ambush as the ships pour out of the harbor and steam away.
Every ship also has Zed set and is at GQ.
The ships at sea like Enterprise etc., are now aware of the attack and are steaming to join the fleet.

The second strike arrives to find almost no targets in harbor. It's now fully night and they have no idea where the US fleet might have gone to.

The strike turns into a debacle.

The planes dump their ordinance and return to the carrier. They can't land carrying torpedoes and such.

This means the US fleet is virtually intact and the Japanese face an now armed and ready US military on Oahu.

It's 3 Japanese BB and 3 CA versus 7 US BB that are far, far more vicious than the Japanese ones, a dozen or more heavy cruisers and upwards of 50 or more DD.

I'd say at that point Japan's best option is to get the hell out of Dodge because come daybreak the US is going to find their fleet and it ain't gonna be pretty.

Because the first strike took place at night US casualties in terms of aircraft were much lighter and land based AAA is almost entirely intact. The B-17's arrive the next day without opposition and are readied for a search. USN PBY's fly out after the first strike to search at night (low success) and more will be looking come morning.

Draco just wrecked Japan's entry into the war...
Reply With Quote
Sponsored Links

  #111  
Old 30 Jun 15, 05:00
Nebfer's Avatar
Nebfer Nebfer is offline
Captain
United_States
ACG 5 Year Service Ribbon 
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Titusville
Posts: 784
Nebfer is on the path to success [1-99] Nebfer is on the path to success [1-99] Nebfer is on the path to success [1-99] Nebfer is on the path to success [1-99] Nebfer is on the path to success [1-99] Nebfer is on the path to success [1-99]
Quote:
Originally Posted by T. A. Gardner View Post
Nebfer, it is really far, far worse for Draco's strike plan.

The first wave arrives around dusk or at night depending on where we're at in the thread. It is to concentrate on attacking airfields and antiaircraft positions.
That means the ships are basically unscathed in that attack.

The next attack (based on the OP and a dusk take off with the first strike arriving around 2000) arrives two hours later.

Every ship in Pearl Harbor that can get underway has gotten under way. That means all of the battleships are now at sea and likely steaming south- southeast or southwest. All of the DD and cruisers are with them and they have formed up a screened formation.
And, yes, all of the ships could have gotten up steam and gotten underway in under two hours. Nevada managed to do it in under an hour.
The ships are preceded by the two duty DD and probably 2 or 3 other DD that are now aggressively looking for subs off the harbor entrance. That pretty much ends some sort of submarine ambush as the ships pour out of the harbor and steam away.
Every ship also has Zed set and is at GQ.
The ships at sea like Enterprise etc., are now aware of the attack and are steaming to join the fleet.

The second strike arrives to find almost no targets in harbor. It's now fully night and they have no idea where the US fleet might have gone to.

The strike turns into a debacle.

The planes dump their ordinance and return to the carrier. They can't land carrying torpedoes and such.

This means the US fleet is virtually intact and the Japanese face an now armed and ready US military on Oahu.

It's 3 Japanese BB and 3 CA versus 7 US BB that are far, far more vicious than the Japanese ones, a dozen or more heavy cruisers and upwards of 50 or more DD.

I'd say at that point Japan's best option is to get the hell out of Dodge because come daybreak the US is going to find their fleet and it ain't gonna be pretty.

Because the first strike took place at night US casualties in terms of aircraft were much lighter and land based AAA is almost entirely intact. The B-17's arrive the next day without opposition and are readied for a search. USN PBY's fly out after the first strike to search at night (low success) and more will be looking come morning.

Draco just wrecked Japan's entry into the war...
I did hint at that possibility, that due to the first wave results in the fleet sorting before the 2nd wave arrives to wipe out the fleet.

If he takes off at Dusk (which is actually closer to 6:15pm (Civil), though depending of what definition, it could be 7:10pm (Astronomical dusk/twilight)).

Based on that they take off at 6:15 pm, by about 8:00 they are attacking, they start heading back by roughly 8:30pm, and by 10:30 they arrive back at the carriers, and spend roughly 90 minutes landing, so by midnight they have landed (12AM)

The Second wave is supposed to take off at 10pm, so they will start attacking by around midnight, they probably will catch a number of stragglers, but most should have escaped by then.

Though it should be noted that the Radar system would be active at this time, so they will detect the planes an hour out, and unlike historical, will not be mistaken for incoming B-17s. So they have an hours warning. Which could allow a number of ships to start heading out about the time the first attack hits.

Though if the first attack commences at 6:15 then we get into a problem

At 6:45 they will start heading back, and get back by 9ish, and spend the next 90 or so minutes landing. Which prevents the second attack from taking off till after 11pm. With them attacking by 1am, so the fleet has some 6 hours to get out of the base.

Though they also face the issue of a rather likely detection of the elements coming out of the Marshals, giving at lest a days warning of somethings coming.

At the lest the Armys 3 inch AA guns would be put into place, providing a substantial increase... But more likely more ships would put to sea, making fewer at port, perhaps the radar would be maned 24/7...
Reply With Quote
  #112  
Old 30 Jun 15, 05:53
Michele's Avatar
Michele Michele is offline
General of the Forums
Italy
Most Significant/Influential Tank Campaign Most Significant/Influential Fighter Campaign Most Significant/Influential Multi-Role Aircraft C Tournament 1 of the ACG 2017-2018 
Greatest/Best Tank of WW2 Campaign 
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Udine
Posts: 6,688
Michele is a pillar of the community [1100] Michele is a pillar of the community [1100]
Michele is a pillar of the community [1100] Michele is a pillar of the community [1100] Michele is a pillar of the community [1100] Michele is a pillar of the community [1100] Michele is a pillar of the community [1100] Michele is a pillar of the community [1100] Michele is a pillar of the community [1100] Michele is a pillar of the community [1100] Michele is a pillar of the community [1100] Michele is a pillar of the community [1100] Michele is a pillar of the community [1100] Michele is a pillar of the community [1100]
Is the general idea to make the Japanese defeat faster than in actual history? If so, it seems to be working.
__________________
Michele
Reply With Quote
  #113  
Old 30 Jun 15, 12:02
Draco's Avatar
Draco Draco is offline
Lieutenant General
Mexico
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: Morelia, Mexico
Posts: 3,327
Draco is on the path to success [1-99] Draco is on the path to success [1-99] Draco is on the path to success [1-99]
I repeated several times that the 1st attack takes place at dusk, it does not take off at dusk. There is no reason at all to take off at dusk, the idea is to have light to destroy the planes. It also happens that Radar is not operating before dusk, so the wave is not even detected (unlike OTL).

Again, the 2nd wave attacks at 2200 and so on. Those are the times for the attacks not the launching times. The fleet continued approaching PH after launching the 1st wave and stops 100 miles from PH, so the planes spend little time flying to and from PH. The BBs and CAs continue approaching PH and stop 30 miles from PH.

I'd like to see any DD, BB, etc, patrol or leave port with at least 30 subs (out of the 60 attacking) around it. OTL the Japanese made the mistake of using only minisubs, when they had a large sub fleet around PH, which could have easily sunk the patrolling DDs, etc, as the 1st wave attacked and then attacked any sortieing ships. It is much better to sink them in the deep water just outside the harbor than in the shallow harbor, where the crews may survive and the ships be repaired.

At night, the subs guarding the harbor need not even be submerged, they can use their torpedoes and their guns. A sortieing DD would see immediately a dozen flashes from different locations and receive several torpedoes and 120mm to 127mm shells from a dozen subs.

If by miracle a DD, cruiser, BB survives the subs, she will encounter alone all the Japanese BBs, and CAs waiting for her a few miles out. There are also 6 torpedo planes ready at any time in at least a carrier to attack sortieing ships (whose AAA will be useless at night, just like that in PH).
Reply With Quote
  #114  
Old 30 Jun 15, 12:48
T. A. Gardner's Avatar
T. A. Gardner T. A. Gardner is offline
General of the Forums
United_States
ACG 5 Year Service Ribbon Most Significant/Influential Tank Campaign Most Significant/Influential Fighter Campaign Most Significant/Influential Multi-Role Aircraft C 
Tournament 1 and preceding Mini-Polls Greatest/Best Tank of WW2 Campaign 
 
Real Name: T. A. Gardner
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Phoenix
Posts: 35,948
T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+]
T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+]
It doesn't matter what the Japanese fleet does, close with Hawaii or not. The item on the table is what the targets of the first strike are and the time gap until the second strike arrives.

Since the first strike doesn't attack the fleet, the fleet sets Zed, goes to GQ and starts to get underway immediately. Sailors on liberty etc., are recalled to their ships. It is anywhere for thirty minutes to an hour later that many of the ships are now moving out of the harbor. Every ship in the harbor has steam up and is ready for an attack.
By the two hour mark the fleet has left the harbor and is in open water and underway. That is when the second attack arrives. It is now dark. With the fleet at sea the Japanese torpedo attack fails. The US fleet is spared and reforms somewhere off Hawaii. The carriers join it.
The Japanese strike returns less ordinance and now what?

Surprise is gone, the US fleet is intact, the USAAC and US Army are in much better shape as the dusk / night strike on them delivered much poorer results. US Army AAA is virtually untouched, and most of the aircraft on Oahu are still intact.

The Japanese are now screwed.

Subs won't stop the fleet. In fact, the likelihood is that several will be sunk (the first ships out will be the duty DD followed by more DD and they will start doing ASW searches because that is what they are supposed to do).
The US has radar on some ships in 1941 and surfaced submarines? They are so finished if they are spotted.
First, the sub crew is much lower to the water. So, their visual spotting distance is reduced compared to a destroyer. Next, the US would put up PBY to assist in the search. Some will survive the night attack on air bases because it is less effective.
The subs are driven deep or sunk.
Reply With Quote
  #115  
Old 30 Jun 15, 13:35
Michele's Avatar
Michele Michele is offline
General of the Forums
Italy
Most Significant/Influential Tank Campaign Most Significant/Influential Fighter Campaign Most Significant/Influential Multi-Role Aircraft C Tournament 1 of the ACG 2017-2018 
Greatest/Best Tank of WW2 Campaign 
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Udine
Posts: 6,688
Michele is a pillar of the community [1100] Michele is a pillar of the community [1100]
Michele is a pillar of the community [1100] Michele is a pillar of the community [1100] Michele is a pillar of the community [1100] Michele is a pillar of the community [1100] Michele is a pillar of the community [1100] Michele is a pillar of the community [1100] Michele is a pillar of the community [1100] Michele is a pillar of the community [1100] Michele is a pillar of the community [1100] Michele is a pillar of the community [1100] Michele is a pillar of the community [1100] Michele is a pillar of the community [1100]
Quote:
Originally Posted by T. A. Gardner View Post
Subs won't stop the fleet. In fact, the likelihood is that several will be sunk (the first ships out will be the duty DD followed by more DD and they will start doing ASW searches because that is what they are supposed to do).

...

The subs are driven deep or sunk.
Obviously (always a bad sign when you have to state the obvious). Subs exist to sink cargo ships. Destroyers exist to sink subs, or at least chase them away.
Naturally, there are those who are affected by the delusion that submarines exist to attack warships, instead of easy, slow targets. For instance, the Nihon Kaigun did believe this, and we know how that contributed to Japan's defeat in real history.
__________________
Michele
Reply With Quote
  #116  
Old 30 Jun 15, 14:11
T. A. Gardner's Avatar
T. A. Gardner T. A. Gardner is offline
General of the Forums
United_States
ACG 5 Year Service Ribbon Most Significant/Influential Tank Campaign Most Significant/Influential Fighter Campaign Most Significant/Influential Multi-Role Aircraft C 
Tournament 1 and preceding Mini-Polls Greatest/Best Tank of WW2 Campaign 
 
Real Name: T. A. Gardner
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Phoenix
Posts: 35,948
T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+]
T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Michele View Post
Obviously (always a bad sign when you have to state the obvious). Subs exist to sink cargo ships. Destroyers exist to sink subs, or at least chase them away.
Naturally, there are those who are affected by the delusion that submarines exist to attack warships, instead of easy, slow targets. For instance, the Nihon Kaigun did believe this, and we know how that contributed to Japan's defeat in real history.
One can think of a WW 2 type submarine as a self-propelled intelligent mine when submerged. The only way such a submarine can effectively attack a warship is if that ship happens to drive over the submarine much like it might drive over a mine.
It happens. But, it is by almost random chance not by design.

Surfaced, a submarine stands no chance against a surface warship. It's deck gun is nearly useless having no fire control beyond a telescopic sight and a human eyeball. Against a destroyer with a fire control system it is doomed. Even against older ships with equal fire controls, it is at a disadvantage being on a less stable platform low to the water.

If you look at Allied convoy plans, the front of the convoy has escorts spread across it using sonar to look for submerged submarines in the path of the convoy. They are looking for the "mines."

The side and rear have just a few escorts, spread out looking for surfaced boats trying to approach from those directions. This is because the Allies know that a submerged sub is too slow to act offensively even against a slow convoy.

So, the first thing ASW ships of the WW 2 period do is try to drive the subs down. That is, get them to submerge and keep them submerged. Once that happens they become useless unless by chance something drives over them. Even then, if they cannot come to periscope depth they cannot attack so basically a submerged, detected sub is neutralized even if not sunk.

To further blind such a sub the surface ships might drop random and occasional depth charges to make noise that keeps the sub from using its hydrophones and sonar to listen for targets.

The Germans and US got it right with subs. Their best use was as commerce raiders. The surface commerce raider could be effective up to the point where aircraft, radar, and radio exist. With these, the ability to find such a ship is so much greater than its ability to hide that it won't survive long. Thus, to redress that balance you go to the submarine which eliminates the effectiveness of aircraft and radar to a degree.

Bottom line: Submarines won't stop the US fleet from sortieing nor will they do much if any damage to it. I had this same argument in other Hawaii invasion threads with people like Robdab.
Submarines are spoilers, not serious warships for taking on other warships in WW 2.

Draco's comment that the subs would be surfaced and use torpedoes and gunfire is absurd. The subs would be blown out of the water in nothing flat by destroyers. History shows that is the result repeatedly in WW 2 when a sub was forced or tried to do what he suggests.
Reply With Quote
  #117  
Old 30 Jun 15, 14:26
Draco's Avatar
Draco Draco is offline
Lieutenant General
Mexico
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: Morelia, Mexico
Posts: 3,327
Draco is on the path to success [1-99] Draco is on the path to success [1-99] Draco is on the path to success [1-99]
Michelle,
You are very good at mixing pears and apples. In PH the Japanese made the big mistake of using 50 Kates for level bombing, which had very poor accuracy, yet You add them to the dive bombers to get 110 bombers.

A sub sank a BB in Scapa Flow and a CV a few days into the war. A sub put Saratoga out of commission during the most valuble time and USN subs sank several IJN carriers (the largest one, just out of harbor) subs also sank many cruisers (including 2 in the PI, much faster than the ridiculously huge USN BB, CA, CL, DD, PTB fleet in Surigao, which caused a lot of friendly damage but alowed some of the few attacking ships to withdraw.

You also include level, twin engine bombers attacking PoW and Repulse as proof of poor bombing performance. The fact that level bombers did score hits indicated much better accuracy than US level bombers, which didn't even hit close to any ship the first 9 months of the war, until they started to use the skip bombing that the British had been using for a while. How many hits did the very expensive B-17s score in Midway, etc, 6 months into the war?

How many torpedoes or bombs did the numerous land based planes from Midway score, 6 months into the war?

The fact that a very few very slow Vals and Kates from Hiryu managed to even approach Yorktown twice, says a lot about the inefficient USN defences.

Sub torpedoes are much more powerful than plane torpedoes and the LOng Lance even more so.

TAG
What part of the excellent USN gunnery failed in the night battle in Guadalcanal where the allied cruisers ended in the bottom and in Surigao?

Did not Halsey have to withdraw from Iwojima for target practice, because years into the war his new BB's guns were overshooting the damn island?

The Japanese failed topressw their huge advantage in Hawaii. The USN did everything wrong in the Coral Sea and Midway and won only because luck favored them 100%. It is wrong to conclude that they were infinitely superior and unbeatable, especially on 7 Dec 1941. When they didn't even think that the Japanese had the capabilities to destroy the fleet in PH.

Last edited by Draco; 30 Jun 15 at 14:35..
Reply With Quote
  #118  
Old 30 Jun 15, 14:31
Draco's Avatar
Draco Draco is offline
Lieutenant General
Mexico
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: Morelia, Mexico
Posts: 3,327
Draco is on the path to success [1-99] Draco is on the path to success [1-99] Draco is on the path to success [1-99]
TAG
Saratoga had a good escort, yet her attacker got away. Yet You claim that a few hours away from peacetime the 1st DD sortieing at night will be able to survive a dozen torpedoes and shells and force 30 subs to dive. Afflek.
Reply With Quote
  #119  
Old 30 Jun 15, 14:37
Draco's Avatar
Draco Draco is offline
Lieutenant General
Mexico
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: Morelia, Mexico
Posts: 3,327
Draco is on the path to success [1-99] Draco is on the path to success [1-99] Draco is on the path to success [1-99]
TAG,
6 months into the war, the sub which sank Yorktown and a DD next to her got away, despite plenty of DDs and a cruiser. Yet, You claim they were clumsy useless crap, which could dive only a shallow depth and USN DDs were deadly, indestructible sub killers even on 7 Dec, 1941
Reply With Quote
  #120  
Old 30 Jun 15, 15:33
T. A. Gardner's Avatar
T. A. Gardner T. A. Gardner is offline
General of the Forums
United_States
ACG 5 Year Service Ribbon Most Significant/Influential Tank Campaign Most Significant/Influential Fighter Campaign Most Significant/Influential Multi-Role Aircraft C 
Tournament 1 and preceding Mini-Polls Greatest/Best Tank of WW2 Campaign 
 
Real Name: T. A. Gardner
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Phoenix
Posts: 35,948
T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+]
T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+] T. A. Gardner has achieved enlightenment [1200+]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Draco View Post
TAG,
6 months into the war, the sub which sank Yorktown and a DD next to her got away, despite plenty of DDs and a cruiser. Yet, You claim they were clumsy useless crap, which could dive only a shallow depth and USN DDs were deadly, indestructible sub killers even on 7 Dec, 1941
How disingenuous and irrelevant an example. Yorktown was dead in the water and crippled. The destroyer Hannaman was alongside rendering help in damage control. The destroyer was also preparing to take Yorktown in tow.
The other 5 DD present were involved in air defense of the battle group. US cruisers are not equipped for ASW so that doesn't count.

So, in your example a submerged submarine managed to close on a stationary target and then torpedo it in calm clear weather.

As for Japanese subs, I gave you a reference to a report written right after WW 2 by the USN who had interviewed and studied Japanese submarine officers and crew, their tactics, and equipment.
Japanese subs had a shallow diving depth of 220 to 350 feet max.
As the USS Ward showed at Pearl Harbor, and US fleet DD's showed in the Atlantic, US ASW in 1941 was reasonably effective.

By the by, the I 70 was sunk by USS Enterprise aircraft (an SBD piloted by Lt. Clarence Dickinson is credited) off Hawaii on 12/10/41 (23:45N, 155:35W).

Two other I boats tried torpedo attacks on Enterprise without success in the same period it might be noted.

I 73 was sunk by the US sub Grudgeon off Midway (28:24N, 178:35E) on 1/27/42.

I 24 was sunk by the USS Edsall (a 4 piper) on 1/20/42 in the Clarence Straight (12:05S, 130:06E).

You want the whole list for the first year of the war? Japanese subs didn't have a good year...


Submarines were largely useless against warships unless they got lucky.
Reply With Quote
Sponsored Links

Reply

Please bookmark this thread if you enjoyed it!


Thread Tools
Display Modes



Forum Jump

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:54.
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.