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  #91  
Old 29 Jun 15, 15:15
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Two quick points:

1. The Japanese fail to achieve surprise due to the size of their forces sent to Hawaii. The crossing takes far longer to accomplish and with the larger force things like radio security become far more problematic.
The US discovers the fleet in route and goes on alert.

2. The two detached light cruisers (assuming they actually are assigned to this) that go commerce raiding run into the USS Trenton (off Panama on 12/7/41) and or USS Richmond (off Peru on 12/7)
And get blown out of the water. The Japanese cruisers have just 7 5.5" guns versus the 12 6" guns of the US ships.

Historically, the Japanese used their CL's (which are old, small, and relatively poorly armed) as destroyer squadron leaders and flagships for that purpose because they had the room aboard to house the staff and an admiral.
Worse, they don't have great range. They have a range of 8,000 to 9,000 nm at 10 knots, that going down to about 1500 nm at 30 knots.

I also want to know where Draco got the 327 merchant and tanker figure from.
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  #92  
Old 29 Jun 15, 15:33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Draco View Post
The US certainly didn't do anything right against German subs between Dec-March 1941 (despite the huge Atlantic fleet), why would they on the sparsely populated W coast, after losing the Pacific fleet?
Right...

Entertainingly the IJN had 9 subs off of the west cost when the war began, they despite orders to engage at will hardly did anything. Sinking only 2 merchantmen and damaging a few more. A few weeks later they where ordered to engage some shore targets, which they then cancelled (except for one sub), due to the increasingly heavy ASW responses.

Edit2, actually these where some of the same subs that where at pearl, and then ordered to hunt a US carrier heading for the mainland, and then to the West coast and engage shipping their. in a week of operations their they only sunk two ships and damaged two more, with four more engaged but undamaged...

They where
I-9, I-10, I-15, I-17, I-19, I-21, I-23, I-25 & I-26 (first two are Type A1, the last seven are Type B1), these are very big submarines, that had a hanger with an aircraft, 6x torpedo tubes and a 140mm gun, displacement was about as much as a destroyer.

Quote:
You find it incredible that Yamamoto would ask for a German commander, I find it incredible that he didn't take advantage of all that invaluable experience.
Why would he? The German Surface navy is a joke, and her submarines are not exactly doing so wonderfully that the IJN needs to adopt it... I mean their is the whole point of how the IJN felt submarines where to be used was very different than what the Germans felt about them.

Well when dose he ask for one? When dose Germany respond to this, would Germany respond to this? If so when dose he leave? and given that as of June he is not going by Russia (and unlikely before that as well), that only gives them few options... and most of them are going to take weeks to months.

Keep in mind that the Japanese German alliance was not exactly an easy one


Quote:
By the 9th the CVs have been in the area for 2 days, despite there being at least 12 IJN subs S pf PH, so if the subs had not damaged at least a CV, the planes will have attacked them for 2 days. In contrast, the few US planes attacking the IJN fleet between Kauai and PH with Buffalo, faulty torpedoes, etc, will have suffered heavy losses and inflicted little damage.
Ah so subs are wonder sensors? Well prewar tests that IJN did with their subs as "sensors" showed that it was fairly easy for ships to slip past them...

The IJN used 20 submarines historically and how much did they accomplish?

Though one question is do all of your submarines have the ability to operate out at pearl for weeks on end?

Quote:
After torpedoing and bombing the US carrier fleet on the 7th, the Japanese will certainly launch a devastating attack by BB, cruisers and DD during the night 7-8 Dec in order to finish off the CVs and their escorts.
So they now know exactly where the US carriers are on the 7th? Despite that they did not know where they where historically.

edit
Quote:
Originally Posted by T. A. Gardner View Post
I also want to know where Draco got the 327 merchant and tanker figure from.
He made it up, because the Germans had a fair bit of success off the west coast, thus the new IJN wolf packs will have good success because the IJN supposedly wipes out the entire US pacific fleet...

Last edited by Nebfer; 29 Jun 15 at 16:12..
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Old 29 Jun 15, 16:01
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Draco View Post
The US certainly didn't do anything right against German subs between Dec 1941-March 1942 (despite the huge Atlantic fleet), why would they on the sparsely populated W coast, after losing the Pacific fleet?
Maybe you should actually read a decent history of that period like Torpedo Junction by Hickam. The US did many things right, did some things wrong, and in other cases was slow to get things implemented for different reasons ranging from lack of civilian cooperation, to lack of the right equipment to do the job, to politics.

It isn't as if Japan did everything right either. Japan made a number of blunders before and during the early stages of the war.
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Old 29 Jun 15, 16:02
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Draco View Post
Another offensive starting simultaneously with the PH wave at dusk:

Deeply impressed by U-boat performance. Yamamoto requests a U-boat commander to train the crews in wolfpack tactics for 2 months and lead the IJN sub and raider offensive along the Pacific coast of the Americas for 2 months, involving 12 subs. The IJN also deploys merchant raiders to start operating simultaneously from Kahaina Roads.

The German commander initiates the war with attacks on the naval bases in San Diego, San Pedro and Bremerton and then concentrates on merchant shipping. He deploys 10 mini subs (which are not used in PH, given the large number of planes, ships, subs, etc,) to attack the bases and damages Sara and several cruisers, DDs, etc, The subs and raiders (including 2 CL deployed from Hawaii with full tanks on Dec 9 sink, capture or heavily damage 327 cargo ships and tankers on the first month between Tierra del fuego and the Aleutians. The captured ships, especially the tankers help considerably the forces operating from Hawaii.

The U-boat and raider fleet was refueled in French Frigate Shoals, 490 nm W of PH, before taking their positions along the E Pacific.
Deeply impressed by U-boat performance. Yamamoto requests a U-boat commander to train the crews in wolfpack tactics for 2 months

Precisely what sort of training in 'wolfpack tactics' could be given to a crew, whether Japanese or German? It appears that you do not know how the German wolf pack tactic worked.

In the Atlantic, Doenitz would establish a patrol line, which would search for a convoy. The first boat to find one became the designated 'shadower' and would transmit position reports, and convoy details ( number of ships, course, speed, etc.) to Befehlshaber der Unterseeboote, (BdU), i.e., Doenitz.

Doenitz would then direct as many boats as possible onto the convoy, and, once a concentration he deemed sufficient had been achieved, would give the boats authority to attack. Hopefully, the number of boats would overwhelm the escort.

In order to achieve this, however, Doenitz needed to have a clear picture of the locations of his operational boats, together with their fuel and torpedo state, and consequently each boat at sea was required to transmit a daily report. This was the major flaw in the wolfpack tactic, because the British & American navies, and a widespread network of shore stations, had a fairly sophisticated technology, known as HF/DF (Huff Duff) available, which could detect the position from which the boat was transmitting, and thus make possible evasive routing or, once sufficient long range aircraft, escort groups & support groups were available, permit the allies to seek out and destroy the boat.

When you add to this the fact that Bletchley Park were frequently able to decrypt BdU's operational signals in real time, then it is apparent that the German system was, in effect, shooting itself in the foot.

Thus, to implement the German system in the Pacific using Japanese boats, it is not the crews that need training, it is the whole command structure and philosophy of the Japanese submarine arm that needs changing. When you have done this, (not in two months) by the way, you are then effectively enabling the US navy to determine the location of every operational Japanese boat.

In any case, given the actual performance of German wolf packs in 1941, then if Yamamoto was impressed, then it really mustn't have taken much to impress him!

What follows is a list of every German Wolf Pack operation, with the name of the pack, the number of boats, the operational dates, and the number of ships sunk:-

West . 23 boats 8 May 20 June 33 ships from 10 convoys.
Kurfurst I. 5 boats, 16 June 20 June 1 ship.
Sud. 5 boats, 22 July 5 August 0 ships
Hammer 3 boats, 5 August to 12 August 0 ships.
Gronland 21 boats 10 August to 23 August 4 ships.
Kurfurst II, 7 boats, 23 August to 2 September, 0 ships.
Markgraf, 15 boats 27 August 16 September 17 ships.
Bosemuller, 8 boats, 28 August 2 September, 1 ship.
Seewolf, 17 boats, 2 September 15 September 5 ships.
Brandenburg, 11 boats, 15 Sept. 2 October, 11 ships from 5 convoys.
Goeben, 6 boats, 16 September - 5 October, 0 ships.
Breslau, 6 boats, 2 October 29 October, 9 ships (one Spanish).
Mordbrenner, 4 boats, 16 October 3 November, 2 ships.
Schlagetot, 9 boats, 2 October 1 November, 3 ships.
Reissewolf, 7 boats, 21 October 31 October, 1 ship.
Stosstrupp, 30 October 4 November, 2 ships (one of which was USS Reuben James)
Arnauld, 4 boats, 5 November 18 November, 1 ship.
Stortebecker, 19 boats, 5 November 2 November, 0 ships.
Steuben, 6 boats, 14 November 2 December, 3 ships.
Godecke, 4 boats, 19 November 25 November, 0 ships.
Benecke, 4 boats, 19 November 2 December, 0 ships.
Letzte Ritter, 3 boats, 25 November 4 December, 0 ships.
Seerauber, 8 boats, 14 December 23 December, 3 ships.
Ulan, 3 boats, 25 December 19 January 1942, 4 ships.
Seydlitz, 7 boats, 27 December 16 January 1942, 0 ships.

In 1941, Wolf Pack successes were few & far between. Why would Yamamoto want to copy them?

Sorry, forgot to add that, As far as I know, when the US Navy began their own submarine offensive, they utilized a much freer (and to my mind, superior) type of wolf pack tactic, in that boats operated in groups of three with a senior captain in charge, who would make his own decisions on the spot and was not obliged to make frequent, and revealing, signals back to his own commanders.

If I am wrong about this, I am sure at least one of the American gentlemen on this thread will take me to task.

I belive the correct term might be to tell me to butt out!

Last edited by Doveton Sturdee; 29 Jun 15 at 16:10..
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Old 29 Jun 15, 16:26
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Actually, it is worse Doveton. The Japanese boats are big. They average about 100 feet longer than a U-boat.
Japanese subs can submerge to 250 to 300 feet max making them far more vulnerable to attack. They are also generally less maneuverable. The German U-boats were designed for attacking convoys and evading escorts based on their WW 1 experience.
Japanese sub crews and captains were not the pick of the litter either. The submarine service was considered sort of "bottom of the class" quality assignment unlike the US and Germany who often had very good crews and captains.
Japanese boats didn't normally do surface attacks like the German boats were trained to do (the US subs preferred this too). German boats also didn't have a scouting function like US and Japanese subs did to support their surface fleet.
It's going to take retraining the crews in new tactics, production and installation of new equipment, and eventually a redesign of Japanese subs to implement a German U-boat campaign.


Worse, unlike on the East coast, the West coast saw all individual sailings of merchant ships come to a halt after Pearl Harbor for about a month.
At that time a convoy system was implemented. Also unlike the East coast fleet DD's were used from the start to escort convoys (being replaced by DE and other specialist ASW vessels eventually).
There are also fewer major ports making it far easier to patrol likely spots for submarines to lurk.

The US versus Japanese shipping relied on each sub's skipper to patrol an area on his own. The USN also provided subs with good radar and ESM equipment early on and trained the crew in its use thoroughly. So, unlike German crews who distrusted electronics and generally had poor equipment, the US crews became enthusiastic users of radar and ESM to find targets and warn them of approaching enemy aircraft.

It didn't help the Japanese that their ASW tactics and equipment were pretty bad.

http://www.fischer-tropsch.org/prima...ort%20S-17.pdf

http://www.fischer-tropsch.org/prima...ort%20S-24.pdf

The Allies also systematically analyzed and produced systems to counter submarines in a way the Germans and Japanese never did.

http://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/USN/rep/ASW-51/
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Old 29 Jun 15, 16:33
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It is just as easy to hide 6 CV, " BB, etc, used OTL as one additional CVL, BB and few more cruisers, ocean liners carrying the few battalions, etc, Many of the DD and some of the cruisers, cargo ships, etc, will arrive from the Marshalls with more fuel and even if they're spotted, they will not cause great alarm without any CVs or BBs

The IJN CLs from Hawaii only hunt off the US and Mexican coasts and in the Aleutians, given their range. The auxiliary cruisers have a much longer range and venture to S America, Canada, continental Alaska, etc,

It is much easier for the Japanese subs to know about the US CLs location before the outbreak of hostilities than all the way around, so the former are at much greater danger. The Japanese will certainly have a couple of subs and an armed merchant raider around Panama for the beginning of hostilities, so Trenton will be the very first target on the outbreak of hostilities. At the time of the dusk attack on PH, it is past midnight in Panama when Trenton is sunk.
Richmond will have to sail to Panama to cover the vital area and will suffer a similar fate (if she wasn't at or near port and sunk at the opening of hostilities).

The huge E Pacific coast can hardly be patrolled by the remnants of the Pacific Fleet (even much less so than the Atlantic coast was with huge American and British fleets).

The IJN obviously knows where the US CVs are on 7 Dec, since they and a large fleet with 60 subs remained in the area on the 7th, instead of the mighty fleet splitting the scene after the 2nd wave at flank speed, like a child after robbing a boxer.
Besides the subs, the BB and cruiser planes are obviously flying search patrols, as are Kawanishi flying boats (refueling in French Frigate Shoals and Lahaina Roads), which also carry 2 torpedoes each on the night 6-7 Dec to attack PH and then to attack merchant ships in the area.
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Old 29 Jun 15, 16:49
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Doveton, that is the main application of a wolfpack. However, U-boats also coordinated to sink an RN carrier at the opening of the war (a U-boat attacked a cargo ship, which caused the Cvs escort to leave the CV to save the merchant crew and another carrier sank the CV) and operated quite successfully against independent merchant ships on the US coast in the 2nd happy time and capturing ships all along the Atlantic, etc, We only have coordinated attacks on warships and a 1st Japanese happy time in the Pacific.

The US could not assemble convoys along the US coast during the first months of the war for lack of escort ships (despite the huge British, US and Canadian fleets), so there are no convoys or at most a few convoys with ridiculous escorts in the Pacific after the warfleet is lost.

Shipping to Australia, the DEI, etc, is greatly disturbed by subs and raiders from Hawaii and by planes, subs, warships, etc, from New Caledonia and Port Moresby.

On the 10th of January, the German commander orders the invasion of extremely weak Easter Island with a merchant raider carrying some crated planes, AAA, a coastal gun, etc, which becomes a valuable, primitive base for Kawanishis, subs and raiders and allows captured ships from S America with fuel, food, etc, to be partly unloaded much closer to the front, before they continue to Hawaii, New Caledonia, etc,

The stretch Hawaii-Easter island covers a large number of shipping routes, including Panama-Australia, so CLs, subs, Kawanishis, etc, operating between these islands can wreak havoc.

Last edited by Draco; 29 Jun 15 at 17:03..
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Old 29 Jun 15, 17:43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Draco View Post
It is just as easy to hide 6 CV, " BB, etc, used OTL as one additional CVL, BB and few more cruisers, ocean liners carrying the few battalions, etc, Many of the DD and some of the cruisers, cargo ships, etc, will arrive from the Marshalls with more fuel and even if they're spotted, they will not cause great alarm without any CVs or BBs

The IJN CLs from Hawaii only hunt off the US and Mexican coasts and in the Aleutians, given their range. The auxiliary cruisers have a much longer range and venture to S America, Canada, continental Alaska, etc,

It is much easier for the Japanese subs to know about the US CLs location before the outbreak of hostilities than all the way around, so the former are at much greater danger. The Japanese will certainly have a couple of subs and an armed merchant raider around Panama for the beginning of hostilities, so Trenton will be the very first target on the outbreak of hostilities. At the time of the dusk attack on PH, it is past midnight in Panama when Trenton is sunk.
Richmond will have to sail to Panama to cover the vital area and will suffer a similar fate (if she wasn't at or near port and sunk at the opening of hostilities).

The huge E Pacific coast can hardly be patrolled by the remnants of the Pacific Fleet (even much less so than the Atlantic coast was with huge American and British fleets).

The IJN obviously knows where the US CVs are on 7 Dec, since they and a large fleet with 60 subs remained in the area on the 7th, instead of the mighty fleet splitting the scene after the 2nd wave at flank speed, like a child after robbing a boxer.
Besides the subs, the BB and cruiser planes are obviously flying search patrols, as are Kawanishi flying boats (refueling in French Frigate Shoals and Lahaina Roads), which also carry 2 torpedoes each on the night 6-7 Dec to attack PH and then to attack merchant ships in the area.
Right.... super IJN recon ability's, and amazing deduction skills... they will know exactly where a US carrier will be despite having no idea where it was to start with.

With amazing base setting up skills, they can fly in aircraft and have bases operational in less than 24 hours, a fact that even the US could not do in 1945, with ten times the engineering capability's that the IJN has at the start of the war...

All the while the USN can not spot this fleet which is 3 to 5 times bigger (including transports) and notably slower than it's historical counter part even though some of them are coming in from the marshals, Even so despite the sudden appearance of a dozen destroyers a few cruisers and 20 or so Transports off of Hawaiian islands, will not alarm US Commanders in the slightest (even though Japan has not said anything about this sudden movement), and the fact that the US knew that a large IJN task force had lest Japanese Territorys (destination unknown) more than a week before...

Edit
During planing they came up with three routes to take they went with the northern option, due to it's stormy weather, due to the weather being able to hide the fleet which was kept as small as possible to better hide it, a much larger fleet is a lot harder to hide and much more noticable. Even though it made refueling difficult. It's Main advantages the weather and the fact that it was also largerly out of the range of US scouts planes operating from Wake, Midway, Palmyra, and Johnston Islands, which the other two routes would of done, and the southern route was from the Marshals. Though their advantage was in far easier refueling operations.

Furthermore you have big problems with your sub numbers. They had at the start of the war roughly 63 submarines, and a number of them you can not use on this operation, as their range is barely good enough to reach pearl one way.

Kaidai II - VI types (~10, - 14,000 nautical mile range) 24 boats operational
(1,700 tons)
Junsen 1, 2 and 3 types (20,000+ nautical mile range) 8 boats
(2,500 tons)
Type C (14,000 nautical mile range) 5 boats
(2,500 tons)
Type A (16,000 nautical miles) 2 boats
(2,900 tons)
Type B (14,000 nautical miles) 7 boats
(2,600 tons)

KRS minelayer 4 boats (10,500 nautical miles)

So that is at best 50 boats

Their is also a dozen smaller boats but none of them have a range greater than 6,000 nautical miles.

Their is also the fact that historically the commander of the I-15 (Zenji Orita) which was used off the west coast in December 1941, in fact 20 miles out side of San Francisco, sad that he saw absolutely ziltch in the week he was their.

Last edited by Nebfer; 29 Jun 15 at 17:52..
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Old 29 Jun 15, 18:50
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Draco View Post
...against a landing in Kauai supported by 7 carriers, 3 BB, 3 CA, 5 CL, 30 DD, 60 subs, plane tenders, etc,
Let's see... This means Japan is sending every carrier they have, 3 Kongo class battlecruisers (I assume as these are the only ones capable of 30 knots), 3 8" heavy cruisers, 5 CL (short ranged with 5.5" guns built in 1918 to 1920 or so), 25% of the available destroyers and every submarine in the IJN, along with some sea plane tenders (likely the 12 knot Notoro, Tsurumi, or Kamoi as the Chitose and Chiyoda are in the yards for conversion. Mizuho is the only other one available).

Along with this say 25 troop transports and a dozen cargo ships, as well as the 7 available navy oilers along with pulling say 15 oilers out of civilian service for this operation.

The transports would advance at say 10 knots towards Hawaii meaning the crossing is now about twice as long, maybe a bit more. Since the slowest ship's arrival dictates the beginning of the attack it means far more Japanese ships are at sea headed for Hawaii than were used historically.

Since some of this is approaching from the Marshalls and the whole operation means a huge change in Japanese radio traffic, the US is going to notice on that alone.
The pulling out of service of civilian shipping will get noticed... It did historically.

The Japanese also need to seriously worry about a US versus Japan surface action. Their fleet is almost certain, even with a good Pearl Harbor strike, to be outnumbered in surface combatants and definitely badly outgunned.
The three Kongo class BC are really pretty weak ships with armor that is about the same as on a US New Orleans class heavy cruiser.
The US would have more cruisers, and destroyers available than you give Japan.

The one Japanese advantage would be their carriers, but given your scenario these are all but dry on ammunition for their aircraft so they are in a position of potentially finding themselves unable to launch a strike at all.

The US will have submarines out too and the Japanese transports will be highly vulnerable targets. Even with faulty torpedoes the subs are likely to still sink a number of them. There is historical precedent for that too.

The bottom line here is that Draco's scenario revolves around the IJN being able to control Hawaii and cripple the US fleet far worse than it was historically.
It is based on a number of very iffy and several erroneous assumptions. The second anything goes wrong with it, Japan is really going to suffer for going to war at all.
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  #100  
Old 29 Jun 15, 19:44
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A huge IJN fleet is attacking PH, a large invasion fleet is arriving from the Marshalls and the US carriers are heading toward PH. If the subs, ships and planes don't see the carriers and their escorts, they must be blind.

The IJN found the unexpected USN carrier fleet NE of Midway a little late, because precisely the one plane heading in its direction left late, otherwise the battle may have gone differently. It was the large fleet of Catalinas, B-17s, etc, which did a very poor job, not spotting the expected IJN carrier fleet before the morning of the battle (knowing long in advance the time and direction of arrival). It was the US planes, which having received the location of the IJN fleet, got lost and lost many fighters, etc, when they ran out of fuel and attacked in complete disarray (the torpedo planes alone, then the dive bombers alone. The very few planes from Hiryu (the smallest carrier) performed much better (found and hit Yorktown twice). The USN won despite doing everything wrong, mainly because of shear luck (the lost SBD happened to follow a Japanese DD speeding toward the carriers) and Nagumo ignoring instructions to keep planes armed with torpedoes and AP bombs at all times.

In PH the Japanese know that at least one US CV is likely to be nearby and will certainly be watching out for it, in order to sink her (the main target of the mission). The Japanese have a lot more warship planes and submarines than in Midway and are concentrating on an area around PH (the USN have to come to them in order to counter attack).

TAG
You know that Zuiho, Taiho, Hosho are not there, so the Japanese are not sending every carrrier they have.

2 battalions each invading Kauai and Maui are transported in ocean liners for the initial phase, You do not need 29 troop transports for that.

The Japanese keep radio traffic from fake stations, just like AGN did with telegraph operators in Leningrad, when the armor left for Moscow in Typhoon, fooling the Soviets completely. The ships keep radio silence until the dusk attack, then all hell brakes loose in the radio world.

Last edited by Draco; 29 Jun 15 at 19:59..
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  #101  
Old 29 Jun 15, 19:55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Draco View Post
A huge IJN fleet is attacking PH, a large invasion fleet is arriving from the Marshalls and the US carriers are heading toward PH. If the subs, ships and planes don't see the carriers and their escorts, they must be blind.
It isn't a "huge IJN fleet..." it's the same six carriers with a new puny one adding in a few planes. The results are going to be pretty much the same as before or worse depending on how the first wave targets things.
It will be much worse if surprise isn't achieved.


Quote:
In PH the Japanese know that at least one US CV is likely to be nearby and will certainly be watching out for it, in order to sink her (the main target of the mission). The Japanese have a lot more warship planes and submarines than in Midway and are concentrating on an area around PH (the USN have to come to them in order to counter attack).
No they don't. The Japanese have no idea where the US carriers are. The Japanese are also tied to their landings on Kauai and Maui so the US has the initiative to strike when they choose much as the Japanese did when the US landed at Guadalcanal.

If the US chooses to reinforce Oahu they have several immediate options:

1. Let the Lexington and Enterprise fly their air wings in to airfields on Oahu and then retire.

2. Fly in the 8 B-17 that didn't make the original flight that showed up in the attack from the West Coast along with up to another 12.

3. Load Saratoga and have her proceed to Pearl flying off her aircraft at a range of 300 to 500 miles out, then retire.

4. Load crated P-40's that are ready to ship on the West Coast and send them under heavy escort to Hawaii.

The US by Dec 10 could have had well over 100 operational fighters and about 25 to 30 operational land based bombers and another 100 dive and torpedo bombers on Oahu in this manner.
The Japanese are being forced to retire due to their poor logistics system leaving their remaining ships without air cover. The airfields on the islands they took won't be ready for weeks to operate planes.
In the interim, the US pounds their transport fleet and then the airfields rendering them marginally or in- operable.
The same scenario can be seen at Guadalcanal.


Quote:
You know that Zuiho, Taiho, Hosho are not there, so the Japanese are not sending every carrrier they have.
Zuiho has a pretty minimal air wing. Taiho doesn't exist. It was launched 4/7/43. Hosho is being used as a training carrier and pretty marginal, not to mention equipped with obsolescent aircraft.


Quote:
2 battalions each invading Kauai and Maui are transported in ocean liners for the initial phase, You do not need 29 troop transports for that.
So, roughly a regiment each if you count construction and service troops...

That's about 24 troop transports plus 7 cargo ships for the assault troops then more cargo ships and troop transports for the supplies for the aircraft. So, yes, you do need 29 transport ships, probably more.


Quote:
The Japanese keep radio traffic from fake stations, just like AGN did with telegraph operators in Leningrad, when the armor left for Moscow in Typhoon, fooling the Soviets completely. The ships keep radio silence until the dusk attack, then all hell brakes loose in the radio world.
It's one thing to do that for a few ships like the raid used. You added immensely to that. You also added lots of cargo ships and transports along with multiple taskforces. That means Japanese radio traffic will get noticed.

Remember, the Japanese can't even use radio between ships at sea since they lack anything like the US TBS system that uses line of sight FM UHF transmissions.
The Japanese ships are sailing without being able to communicate. For a single taskforce of limited size conducting a raid that's possible. Here you have a large multi-taskforce fleet moving to conduct an invasion. It isn't going to go unnoticed.

Last edited by T. A. Gardner; 29 Jun 15 at 20:03..
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  #102  
Old 29 Jun 15, 20:02
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This whole scenario is complete nonsense. Everything about it runs contrary to Japan's immediate strategic war aims, that is, the occupation of the Southern Resource Area as IGHQ called it. All other objectives (including Hawai'i) were purely secondary and only then if they met with substantial success in the first and second phase offensives (the second phase being Port Moresby, Midway, the Aleutians, FS, and RY). Of those operations, two were failures, one was cancelled, and only RY (the occupation of Nauru and Ocean Island) and the Aleutians were successful.

Therefore, at no time were the Japanese in a position to launch a meaningful invasion of the Hawaiian Islands without compromising more important objectives. Even though after Midway they were still a formidable strategic threat, the fact that the US carrier force was still at large and the opening of the Solomons Campaign made any talk of invasion moot.
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  #103  
Old 29 Jun 15, 20:04
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It is a huge fleet, much larger than OTL. It has many more cruisers, DD and subs and 50% more BBs plus the invasion vessels. It is much larger then the OTL fleets in PH, Coral Sea, Darwin; Ceylon, Midway (actually engaged in the day battel, not the fleets hundreds of miles away, which never engaged), the PI, DEI, Guadalcanal, etc,

Malaya & Luzon are completely irrelevant the first weeks of the war. Borneo is captured intact on the first day, so they are not compromising any valuable objectives, but acquiring them sooner. There is no more valuable objective than wiping out the fleet and capturing Kauai and Maui.
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  #104  
Old 29 Jun 15, 20:17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Draco View Post
It is a huge fleet, much larger than OTL. It has many more cruisers, DD and subs and 50% more BBs plus the invasion vessels. It is much larger then the OTL fleets in PH, Coral Sea, Darwin; Ceylon, Midway (actually engaged in the day battel, not the fleets hundreds of miles away, which never engaged), the PI, DEI, Guadalcanal, etc,

You stated the fleet now was:

Quote:
7 carriers, 3 BB, 3 CA, 5 CL, 30 DD, 60 subs, plane tenders,
That is not "...a huge fleet..." it is a slightly larger fleet except for the massive increase in CL and DD that requires a huge increase in the number of oilers accompanying the fleet.

Quote:
Malaya & Luzon are completely irrelevant the first weeks of the war. Borneo is captured intact on the first day, so they are not compromising any valuable objectives, but acquiring them sooner. There is no more valuable objective than wiping out the fleet and capturing Kauai and Maui.
They won't be when Japan finds their Hawaiian expedition has failed and now they can't take Malaya, the DEI or Luzon and their economy is collapsing as a result.
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  #105  
Old 29 Jun 15, 20:44
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Tick-Tock

Tick-Tock

Wrap this up gents,.... you gone too far down the rabbit hole again
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